Download or read book An Investigation of the Lead Lag Relationship Between the VIX Index and the VIX Futures on the S P500 written by Sotirios Karagiannis and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates the lead-lag relationship between the price movements of VIX futures and VIX index levels. As a proxy for the futures, the front month VIX futures contract is used. A Johansen cointegration approach with a vector error correction model and Granger causality analysis are applied. The results suggest that VIX futures lead spot VIX index, which implies that VIX futures market seems to play a more important role in price discovery.
Download or read book The Causal Relationship between the S P 500 and the VIX Index written by Florian Auinger and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-13 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Florian Auinger highlights the core weaknesses and sources of criticism regarding the VIX Index as an indicator for the future development of financial market volatility. Furthermore, it is proven that there is no statistically significant causal relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500. As a consequence, the forecastability is not given in both directions. Obviously, there must be at least one additional variable that has a strong influence on market volatility such as emotions which, according to financial market experts, are considered to play a more and more important role in investment decisions.
Download or read book The Lead Lag Relationship Between Volatility Index Futures and Spot in the Korean Stock Market written by Rong-Yuan Qin and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This empirical study examines the short-run lead-lag relationship between the VKOSPI index futures and its underlying spot index and KOSPI index using daily data from September 17, 2014 to May 2017. We used the unit root test, Johansen-Juselius cointegration test, Granger causality analysis, impulse response function analysis, and variance decomposition analysis to test the hypothesis that the futures market with no market frictions leads the spot market in this analysis. The results of these analyses using level variables show that there is a bi-directional lead-lag relationship between the VKOSPI futures and VKOSPI index, but in the analysis using first-difference variables, there is only a unidirectional lead-lag relationship form VKOSPI index to VKOSPI futures. This means that the VKOSPI spot market is more efficient than the futures market. Also, there are no lead-lag relationship from VKOSPI futures or VKOSPI index to KOSPI index. It is inconsistent with the main expected hypothesis in our study and the conclusions of previous studies which argue that the VIX futures lead the VIX index and S&P 500 index. This results are related to a lack of liquidity of VKOSPI futures contracts in the Korean derivatives market. Because generally, the Korean institutional investors prefer option trading, to hedge market risk rather than VKOSPI futures. Change in the price of the option will result in the change in the VKOSPI index and subsequently the mechanism that alters the VKOSPI futures or the KOSPI index.
Download or read book The VIX Index and Volatility Based Global Indexes and Trading Instruments A Guide to Investment and Trading Features written by Matthew T. Moran and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2020-04-28 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the past two decades, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX® Index), a key measure of investor sentiment and 30-day future volatility expectations, has generated much investor attention because of its unique and powerful features. The introduction of VIX futures in 2004, VIX options in 2006, and other volatility-related trading instruments provided traders and investors access to exchange-traded vehicles for taking long and short exposures to expected S&P 500 Index volatility for a particular time frame. Certain VIX-related tradable products may provide benefits when used as tools for tail-risk hedging, diversification, risk management, or alpha generation. Gauges of expected stock market volatility for various regions include the VIX Index (United States), AXVI Index (Australia), VHSI Index (Hong Kong), NVIX Index (India) and VSTOXX Index (Europe). All five of these volatility indexes had negative correlations with their related stock indexes price movements, and all five volatility indexes rose more than 50% in 2008. Although the five volatility indexes are not investable, investors can explore VIX-based benchmark indexes that show the performance of hypothetical investment strategies using VIX futures or options. Before investing in volatility-related products, investors should closely study the pricing, roll cost, and volatility features of the tradable products and read the applicable prospectuses and risk disclosure statements.
Download or read book Understanding the Relationship Between VIX and the S P 500 Index Volatility written by Irena Vodenska and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the VIX Index, often referred to as “the investor's fear gauge,” relative to the observed volatility of the S&P 500 Index to investigate the relationship between these two measures of financial markets variability and to understand the directionality of their influence on one another. Calculated as a weighted average of put and call options on the S&P 500 Index, the VIX is considered as a forecasting indicator of the S&P 500 Index's volatility over a one-month period. We examine the daily VIX and S&P 500 Index volatility data for the 20-year period between 1990 and 2009 and find that VIX lags the S&P 500 one-month volatility for the period that we study. Furthermore, we analyze the VIX Index and the S&P 500 volatility for different time periods, when the financial markets exhibit: (i) higher level of stability with volatility below two standard deviations from the mean and (ii) lower stability regimes, with volatilities above two standard deviations from the mean. We find that in general, the VIX overestimates the S&P 500 Index volatility during the stable financial market regimes, and underestimates the S&P 500 Index volatility throughout high volatility periods.
Download or read book The Relationship Between VIX Futures Term Structure and S P500 Returns written by Athanasios Fassas and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current paper tests and documents the relationship between the term structure of VIX futures and the underlying equity returns. Furthermore, it investigates the signaling effects of VIX futures term structure in respect to future stock index movements. The objective of this empirical analysis is to verify if a steep upward-sloping term structure indicates a late phase of a bullish trend and conversely if an extreme negative term structure suggests an over-sold market, as certain market participants believe.The empirical findings of this study suggest that there is a strong statistical significant positive contemporaneous relationship between the changes in the VIX futures term structure and the returns of the underlying equity index. Finally, the econometric analysis lends some support to the hypothesis that the term structure of VIX futures can be used as a contrarian indicator for investing in the equity market.
Download or read book The Temporal Price Relationship Between S P 500 Futures Prices and the S P 500 Index written by Ira G. Kawaller and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Further Investigation of the Lead Lag Relationship in Returns and Volatility Between the Spot Market and Stock Index Futures written by Sotirios Karagiannis and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the lead-lag relationship in daily returns and volatilities between price movements of FTSE/ASE-20 futures and the underlying FTSE/ASE-20 cash index of the Athens Stock Exchange. The results suggest that there is a bidirectional causality between spot and futures returns, rejecting the usual result of futures leading spot market. However, spot market seems to play a more important role in price discovery. Volatility spillovers across the two markets are examined by using a bivariate EGARCH(1,1) model. This model is found to capture all the volatility dynamics. The results indicate that the transmission of volatility is bidirectional. Any piece of information that is released by the cash market has an effect on futures market volatility, and vice versa. Nevertheless, the volatility spillover from spot to futures market is slightly stronger than in the reverse direction.
Download or read book On the Intraday Relation Between the VIX and Its Futures written by Bart Frijns and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) introduced the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) in 1993. The index has come to act as the benchmark for stock market volatility and, more generally, investor sentiment. The VIX has proven to be very useful in forecasting the future market direction especially during high volatility periods. In order to expedite trading in volatility, as well as increase hedging opportunities, the CBOE introduced futures on the VIX (henceforth referred to as VXF) on March 26, 2004.We study the intraday dynamics of the VIX and VXF for the period January 2, 2008 to December 31, 2012. Applying a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model on daily data, we observe some evidence of causality from the VXF to the VIX. However, estimating a VAR using our ultra-high frequency data, we find strong evidence for bi-directional Granger causality between the VIX and the VXF. Overall, this effect appears to be stronger from the VXF to the VIX than the other way around. Impulse response functions and variance decompositions analysis further confirm the dominance of the VXF. Lastly, we show that the causality from the VXF to the VIX has been increasing over our sample period, whereas the reverse causality has been decreasing. This finding suggests that the VIX futures have become increasingly more important in the pricing of volatility. We further document that the VIX futures dominate the VIX more on days with negative returns, and on days with high values of the VIX, suggesting that on those days investors use VIX futures to hedge their positions rather than trading in the S&P 500 index options.
Download or read book The Ability of VIX Futures to Predict S P 500 Volatility written by Peter Williams and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the ability of futures on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to predict realized S&P 500 volatility up to seven months into the future. These forecasts are found to be significantly biased. The imposition of a priori theoretically motivated restrictions can substantially improve forecast accuracy, especially when the VIX futures are augmented with the variance risk premium. When VIX futures are compared with out-of-sample forecasts from a GJR-GARCH model, the VIX-based forecasts are found to robustly outperform during periods of high volatility. In more normal states this out-performance is less significant but still present.
Download or read book Directional Exposure to Volatility via Listed Futures S P 500 VIX Short Term Futures Index written by Global Research & Design S&P Dow Jones Indices and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volatility has emerged as an important asset class in the last decade. It is actively traded through over-the counter swaps, and more recently through exchange listed VIX futures and options. While VIX has achieved widespread recognition, it remains very challenging to replicate spot VIX. The Samp;P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index is the first index to offer replicable, directional exposure to volatility using exchange-listed futures contracts. The index is comprised of two near term VIX futures contracts, which are rebalanced daily in equal increments in order to maintain a constant one month maturity. While the correlation between spot VIX and the Samp;P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index is not perfect, it is a healthy 87%. More importantly, the correlation of the index to the Samp;P 500 is -76%, similar to the correlation of spot VIX to the Samp;P 500 of -74%. The index has a positive return 95% of the time that the Samp;P 500 has a loss of more than 1%. During days of sharp market declines, index returns are usually greater in value than corresponding Samp;P 500 losses. Dedicated long positions in the index are expected to decline during normal volatility regimes. Not only is volatility mean reverting to a theoretical expected long term return of zero, but the index is also expected to suffer from roll loss due to term structure decay. Conversely, short positions in the index provide exposure to a forward starting volatility arbitrage strategy.
Download or read book An Investigation of the Lead Lag Relationship in Returns and Volatility between Cash and Stack Index Futures written by Ilias Visvikis and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the lead-lag relationship in daily returns and volatilities between price movements of stock index futures and the underlying cash index in the FTSE/ASE-20 and FTSE/ASE Mid-40 markets of the Athens Stock Exchange. Empirical results confirm previous findings that there is a large contemporaneous relation, together with asymmetric lead-lag behaviour between the cash and futures markets. There is evidence that the futures lead the cash index returns, by responding more rapidly to economic events than stock prices. This asymmetric lead-lag relation can be attributed to the predictive power of futures returns, supporting the price discovery hypothesis that new market information is disseminated faster in the futures market compared to the stock market. After examining whether daily volatility in futures prices has systematically lead daily volatility in the cash index, the results provide a weak indication that cash volatility spills some information in the futures market volatility in the FTSE/ASE-20 market. In the FTSE/ASE Mid-40 market, the results indicate that there are robust volatility spillovers from the futures to the cash market, which imply that the futures market can be used as a price discovery vehicle.
Download or read book The VIX Futures Basis written by David P. Simon and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study demonstrates that the VIX futures basis does not have significant forecast power for the change in the VIX spot index from 2006 through 2011 but does have forecast power for subsequent VIX futures returns. The study then demonstrates the profitability of shorting VIX futures contracts when the basis is in contango and buying VIX futures contracts when the basis is in backwardation with the market exposure of these positions hedged with mini-S&P 500 futures positions. The results indicate that these trading strategies are highly profitable and robust to transaction costs, out of sample hedge ratio forecasts and risk management rules. Overall, the analysis supports the view that the VIX futures basis does not accurately reflect the mean-reverting properties of the VIX spot index but rather reflects a risk premium that can be harvested.
Download or read book Return Volatility Movements in Spot and Futures Markets written by Jeng-Hong Chen and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the Debt Ceiling Bill was passed on August 2, 2011, the S&P 500 index returns volatility increased significantly until the end of 2011. This research investigates the return volatility movements in S&P 500 spot index and index futures markets, the lead/lag relationship between two markets, and the effect of volatility on the trading costs using year 2011 intraday data. The analyses of intraday data show the following results during the higher volatility period (8/3/2011-12/30/2011): First, the difference of return variances between index futures and spot index is even greater than that during the lower volatility period. Second, the index futures market leads the spot index market and the interaction between both markets becomes stronger. Third, both index futures and spot index exhibit clearer U-shape intraday pattern of return volatilities. Finally, the trading costs, measured by the bid-ask spreads, are significantly larger.
Download or read book The VIX Index and Volatility Based Global Indexes and Trading Instruments A Guide to Investment and Trading Features written by Matthew T. Moran and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the past two decades, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX® Index), a key measure of investor sentiment and 30-day future volatility expectations, has generated much investor attention because of its unique and powerful features. The introduction of VIX futures in 2004, VIX options in 2006, and other volatility-related trading instruments provided traders and investors access to exchange-traded vehicles for taking long and short exposures to expected S&P 500 Index volatility for a particular time frame. Certain VIX-related tradable products may provide benefits when used as tools for tail-risk hedging, diversification, risk management, or alpha generation. Gauges of expected stock market volatility for various regions include the VIX Index (United States), AXVI Index (Australia), VHSI Index (Hong Kong), NVIX Index (India) and VSTOXX Index (Europe). All five of these volatility indexes had negative correlations with their related stock indexes price movements, and all five volatility indexes rose more than 50% in 2008. Although the five volatility indexes are not investable, investors can explore VIX-based benchmark indexes that show the performance of hypothetical investment strategies using VIX futures or options. Before investing in volatility-related products, investors should closely study the pricing, roll cost, and volatility features of the tradable products and read the applicable prospectuses and risk disclosure statements.
Download or read book Bounds for VIX Futures Given S P 500 Smiles written by Julien Guyon and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We derive sharp bounds for the prices of VIX futures using the full information of S&P 500 smiles. To that end, we formulate the model-free sub/superreplication of the VIX by trading in the S&P 500 and its vanilla options as well as the forward-starting log-contracts. A dual problem of minimizing/maximizing certain risk-neutral expectations is introduced and shown to yield the same value.The classical bounds for VIX futures given the smiles only use a calendar spread of log-contracts on the S&P 500. We analyze for which smiles the classical bounds are sharp and how they can be improved when they are not. In particular, we introduce a family of functionally generated portfolios which often improves the classical bounds while still being tractable; more precisely, determined by a single concave/convex function on the line. Numerical experiments on market data and SABR smiles show that the classical lower bound can be improved dramatically, whereas the upper bound is often close to optimal.
Download or read book Is the VIX Futures Market Able to Predict the VIX Index A Test of the Expectation Hypothesis written by Marcus Nossman and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper tests the expectation hypothesis by using the volatility index VIX and the futures written on that index. Because the VIX index is negatively correlated with the Samp;P 500 index returns, the VIX futures price should contain a negative risk premium, which we do confirm in this study. When the futures price is not adjusted with the risk premium, the expectation hypothesis is rejected at the 5 percent significance level for 20 of 21 forecast horizons. However when we adjust the futures price with the risk premium, obtained from a stochastic volatility model, the expectation hypothesis cannot be rejected. Further, we find that the risk premium adjusted futures price forecasts the direction of the VIX index well. The one day ahead forecast predicts the direction correctly in 73 percent of the times.
