Download or read book An Empirical Study of Current Account Balances in Oil exporting Countries written by Fathi Alwerfalli and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three chapters dealing with the current account balances of oil exporting countries.The second chapter examines the role of exchange rate regimes in adjusting the current account imbalances of oil-exporting countries. Exchange rate adjustment is crucial for maintaining a country's macroeconomic and financial stability. The objective of this chapter is to investigate the determinants of the current account in oil-exporting countries and to find out whether current account persistent depends on the exchange rate regime. To this end, we include these determinants separately for fixed, intermediate and flexible exchange rate regimes. .Surges in world oil prices and trade imbalances have raised serious concerns among policymakers because of their hostile effects on the economies of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Therefore, oil exporters urgently need to improve the response of their trade balances and avoid the macroeconomic consequences of oil price changes. In the third chapter of the study, we examine the impact of oil prices on Libya's trade balance and its oil and non-oil components, and whether these trade balance sub-components make the necessary adjustments to adjust to changes in oil prices. This chapter aims to analyse the relationship between global crude oil prices and a set of macroeconomic indicators and the balance of trade.
Download or read book Current Account Determinants for Oil Exporting Countries written by Hanan Morsy and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-02 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper aims at characterizing the main determinants of the medium-term current account balance for oil-exporting countries using dynamic panel estimation techniques. Previous studies included a very limited number of oil-exporting countries in their samples, raising concerns about the applicability of the estimated coefficients for oil countries. Furthermore, current approaches are not specifically tailored to oil-producing countries because they fail to capture the effects of oil wealth and the degree of maturity in oil production. This paper explores the underlying determinants of the current account balance for a large sample of oilexporting countries, and extends the specifications commonly used in the literature to include an oil wealth variable, as well as a proxy for the degree of maturity in oil production. The paper therefore contributes to the existing literature both in terms of the sample studied as well as the variables considered. The results reveal that factors that matter in determining the equilibrium current account balance of oil-exporting counties are the fiscal balance, the oil balance, oil wealth, age dependency, and the degree of maturity in oil production.
Download or read book External Adjustment in Oil Exporters written by Mr.Alberto Behar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-08 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the decline in oil prices, many oil exporters face the need to improve their external balances. Special characteristics of oil exporters make the exchange rate an ineffective instrument for this purpose and give fiscal policy a sizeable role. These conclusions are supported by regression analysis of the determinants of the current account balance and of the trade balance. The results show little or no relationship with the exchange rate and, especially for the less diversified oil exporters (including the Gulf Cooperation Council), a strong relationship with the fiscal balance or government spending.
Download or read book The Balance of Payments of Oil importing Developing Countries written by Michael Beenstock and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The External Balance Assessment EBA Methodology written by Mr.Steven Phillips and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF’s Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing between the positive empirical analysis and the normative assessment of current accounts and exchange rates, and highlights the roles of policies and policy distortions. This paper provides a comprehensive description and discussion of the 2013 version (“2.0”) of the EBA methodology, including areas for its further development.
Download or read book Macroeconomics for Professionals written by Leslie Lipschitz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-01-23 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.
Download or read book Oil Shocks and External Balances written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-05-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries' external balance, including the oil and non-oil trade balances, the current account, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975-2004. We explicitly take a global perspective. In addition to the U.S., the Euro area and Japan, we consider a number of country groups including oil exporters and middle-income oil-importing economies. We find that the effect of oil shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the nonoil trade balance, and differs systematically between the U.S. and other oil importing countries. Using the Lane-Milesi-Ferretti NFA data set, we document the presence of large and systematic (if not always statistically significant) valuation effects in response to oil shocks, not only for the U.S., but also for other oil-importing economies and for oil exporters. Our estimates suggest that increased international financial integration will tend to cushion the effect of oil shocks on NFA positions for major oil exporters and the U.S., but may amplify it for other oil importers.
Download or read book Economic Diversification in Oil Exporting Arab Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...
Download or read book Current account Sustainability written by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Finance Section Princeton University Internati. This book was released on 1996 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study presents a notion of current-account sustainability that explicitly considers, in addition to intertemporal solvency, a willingness to pay and to lend. It argues that this notion of sustainability provides a useful framework for understanding the variety of country experiences with protracted current-account imbalances. Based on this notion, the authors identify a number of potential sustainability indicators related to the structure of the economy and the economic policy stance. They use these indicators in the evaluation of the experience of a number of countries that have run persistent current-account imbalances and ask whether they help to discriminate between countries that underwent an external crisis and those that did not.
Download or read book Symmetric and asymmetric causality between current account balance and oil prices The case of BRICS T written by Mustafa Kırca and published by Litres. This book was released on 2022-01-29 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main aim of the study is to examine the symmetric and asymmetric relationship between oil prices and the current account balances of BRICS-T countries covering the period from 2003:Q1 to 2017:Q2. In the study, Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) for the symmetric causality test and Hatemi-J (2012) for the asymmetric causality test are used to test the relationships between the variables. The symmetrical causality test results support that there is unidirectional causality from Brazil’s current account balances to oil prices and there is unidirectional causality from oil prices to Turkey’s current account balances. On the other hand, asymmetrical causality test results support that there are many causal relationships between the variables shock. There is causality from positive oil price shock to South Africa’s positive current account balances shock, from negative oil price shock to Russia, China, and Turkey’s negative current account balances shocks and to Russia, India, and Turkey’s positive current account balances shocks. Besides, there is causality from Brazil’s negative current account balances shock to both positive and negative oil prices shocks. Also, it is seen that there is causality from India’s positive current account balances shock to negative oil prices shock.Policy-makers should consider the impact of the shocks in oil prices on the current account to evaluate any policy, especially for Russia, China, India and Turkey.
Download or read book Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2002-11-15 with total page 782 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1951-01-01 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains contribution of the September 1949 devaluations to the solution of Europe’s dollar problem. After the devaluations, the dollar value of exports to the United States from the devaluing countries in Europe recovered from the low levels of the second and third quarters of 1949, but this recovery, which restored exports in the first half of 1950 approximately to the 1948 level should be attributed in large part to the recovery in the US economy rather than to the devaluations. Between the first half of 1949 and the first half of 1950, Europe's dollar imports declined by one-third. Most of this decline occurred, however, between the second and third quarter of 1949, that is, before the devaluations. With imports generally controlled, the effect of the devaluations appeared much more in the reduction of pressure on the control authorities, the substitution of the price mechanism for at least part of the controls as barriers to imports, and the consequent more rational allocation of the relatively scarce dollars among different uses and different users.
Download or read book Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty about the export earnings accruing to a country (sometimes referred to as export instability) is an important source of macroeconomic uncertainty in many developing countries. Theory predicts that countries should react to increases in this form of uncertainty by increasing their level of savings. The resulting asset accumulations would then act as the country’s insurance against the greater riskiness in its income stream. The paper tests this implication for a large sample of developing countries. In general, the results suggest that developing countries have indeed responded to increases in export instability by building up precautionary savings balances.
Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Download or read book Global Rebalancing written by Mr.Hamid Faruqee and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2013-08-09 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines imbalances in seven major economies: China, France, Germany, India, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, evaluating key indicators agreed on by the G20 for identifying large imbalances, including public and private debt and private saving, and countries external position. The chapters describe a suite of corrective steps tailored for each country that, if implemented, could improve prospective economic outcomes, creating sustainable and balanced growth for these economies and serving as a model for other G20 countries.
Download or read book Oil Windfalls written by Alan H. Gelb and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1988 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book assesses the full impact of oil windfalls on six developing producer countries - Algeria, Ecuador, Indonesia, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. This is the first time that the issue has been systematically analysed and related to economics policies and underlying macroeconomic characteristics. The book adopts a broad approach, blending institutional and political aspects with quantitative analysis which includes the results of sophisticated model simulations. It presents new information on how oil discoveries have been used by producer governments, and analyses of the consequences. Finally it concludes that much of the potential benefit to producers has been dissipated, and explains why producers may actually end up worse off despite revenue gains.
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects 2010 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010-02-12 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “The crisis has deeply impacted virtually every economy in the world, and although growth has returned, much progress in the fight against poverty has been lost. More difficult international conditions in the years to come will mean that developing countries will have to place even more emphasis on improving domestic economic conditions to achieve the kind of growth that can durably eradicate poverty.� —Justin Yifu Lin, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President The World Bank 'Global Economic Prospects 2010: Crisis, Finance, and Growth' explores both the short- and medium-term impacts of the financial crisis on developing countries. Although global growth has resumed, the recovery is fragile, and unless business and consumer demand strengthen, the world economy could slow down again. Even if, as appears likely, a double-dip recession is avoided, the recovery is expected to be slow. High unemployment and widespread restructuring will continue to characterize the global economy for the next several years. Already, the crisis has provoked large-scale human suffering. Some 64 million more people around the world are expected to be living on less than a $1.25 per day by the end of 2010, and between 30,000 and 50,000 more infants may have died of malnutrition in 2009 in Sub-Saharan Africa, than would have been the case if the crisis had not occurred. Over the medium term, economic growth is expected to recover. But increased risk aversion, a necessary and desirable tightening of financial regulations in high-income countries, and measures to reduce the exposure of developing economies to external shocks are likely to make finance scarcer and more costly than it was during the boom period. As a result, just as the ample liquidity of the early 2000s prompted an investment boom and an acceleration in developing-country potential output, higher costs will likely yield a slowing in developing-country potential growth rates of between 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points, and as much as an 8 percent decline in potential output over the medium term. In the longer term, however, developing countries can more than offset the implications of more expensive international finance by reducing the cost of capital channeled through their domestic financial markets. For more information, please visit www.worldbank.org/gep2010. To access Prospects for the Global Economy, an online companion publication, please visit www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook.
