Download or read book An Econometric Investigation of Long and Short Run Relationship Among Crude Oil Price Exchange Rate and Stock Price in India written by Shekhar Mishra and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present study aims to investigate the long and short run relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate Volatility and Stock Price in India using ARDL-UECM approach. The study used monthly data from the period April 2000 to January 2015. The cointegration result reveals that crude oil price tends to have long run relationship with exchange rate and stock price and changes in the independent variables have significant impact on volatility of crude oil prices. The long run estimates of ARDL Process indicate that impact of exchange rate volatility on crude oil is negative whereas the interaction between NSE Stock price and crude oil price is positive. The Short Run Dynamic coefficients associated with long run relationships reveals that the estimated error correction coefficient is negative which indicates that adjustment process from short run deviation is quite slow. The analysis would enhance the understanding of dynamic interaction between the crude oil price, exchange rate and stock price. The empirical outcome is of wider interest and has large implications for market integration, policy makers and investors at large.
Download or read book Co Integration and Causal Relationship Among Crude Oil Prices Exchange Rate and Stock Market Performance written by Sanjeeta Shirodkar and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper has made an attempt to evaluate the combined impact of crude oil prices and exchange rate on the performance of Indian stock market. As the impact of dollar nominated oil prices on stock prices may not be quite relevant for Indian context. Therefore, in this study WTI Crude oil prices per Dollars along with the USD/Rupee exchange rate would be more meaningful and relevant to understand the impact of oil prices on stock market by using monthly data from 2003 to 2016 for S&P CNX Nifty Index, WTI Crude oil prices per Barrel (Dollars) and Dollar/Rupee Exchange rate. All the series were found to be stationery at First difference. The Granger causality tests revealed that there exists a Bi directional causality between stock prices and exchange rates in the short run i.e. stock prices lead exchange rates in the short run, but result of Johansen cointegration suggested that there is no long run relationship between these two financial variables. The results of the Johansen cointegration test suggest absence of any long term relationship between WTI crude oil price, USD/Rupee exchange rate and stock prices in India. The result of forecast error variances suggested that USD/Rupee exchange rate is influenced by Stock market performance. The forecast error variances of USD/Rupee exchange rate is significantly explained by the value of Nifty. Results also indicate that the values of oil price and exchange rate are comparatively less exogenous than the Indian stock market. Particularly, the contribution of Stock market shocks to the USD/Rupee exchange rate is greater than that of WTI Crude oil price shocks in all the periods.
Download or read book On Dynamic Relationship Among Oil Prices Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in India written by Vanita Tripathi and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the long run and short run dynamics among oil prices, exchange rates and stock prices in India (one of the fastest growing emerging markets in the world) over the most recent 15 year period 1997-2011. Using Johansen's Co integration test we find the existence of long run equilibrium relationship among oil market, foreign exchange market and stock market in India. The short term dynamics among the three markets are analyzed using Vector Autoregression (unrestricted as well as VECM), VAR causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test and Impulse response analysis. We find unidirectional causality from stock market to oil market. An impulse originating in foreign exchange market results in a profound drop in stock as well as oil prices and is statistically significant for about three weeks in oil market and two weeks in stock market. The domino effect of up-waves in stock market is positive for oil market and remains statistically significant for few weeks, while being of opposite tendency in foreign exchange market. The optimism of oil market bulls up stock market in India while creating bearish trends in foreign exchange market. An assessment of impulse response graphs in pre-crisis, during crisis and post crisis period exhibits that the riposte of all the variables to a shock generating from within stays for a relatively longer period during crisis as compared to pre and post crisis period. These results have wider implications for market integration, policy makers and investors at large. Since these markets are integrated rather than segmented, from the perspective of investments, risk reduction cannot be achieved in the long run by holding assets from these markets in the same portfolio. However diversification opportunities are not ruled out in the short run. Stock market turns out to be the leader in all the three markets especially after the recent financial crisis. Rapidly rising stock prices in India signal the expectation of higher economic growth ahead. If the stock prices get trapped in a bubble, however, oil prices will overshoot in relation to economic fundamentals.
Download or read book Dynamic Linkages and Volatility Spillover written by Bhaskar Bagchi and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-11-01 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the dynamic relationship and volatility spillovers between crude oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets of emerging economies. Unfortunately very little research has been conducted to analyze the volatility spillovers and dynamic relationship between crude oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets of India.
Download or read book Crude Oil Price Exchange Rate and Emerging Stock Market written by Tarak Nath Sahu and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Oil is one of the most important forms of energy and is a significant determinant of global economic performance. Commodities like oil are fairly homogeneous and internationally traded. The impact of dollar nominated oil prices on stock prices may not be quite relevant for Indian context. In this context, the study of crude oil prices in dollar terms along with the exchange rate would be more meaningful to understand the impact of oil prices on stock market. The study investigates the dynamic relationships between oil price, exchange rate and Indian stock market during 1993 to 2013. The estimated results of the Johansen's cointegration test and vector error correction model suggest that there exist a long run cointegrating relationships between crude oil price and Indian stock indices, but it cannot be said with sufficient confidence that the direction of the relation in the long run is from the oil price to the Sensex. The Granger causality test also reveals that the volatility of stock prices in India can be explained to cause the movement of oil price and exchange rate in short run. The observed relationship between oil price and stock indices is not due to the effect of the exchange rate fluctuations, because the change in exchange rate has no significant impact on oil prices or stock prices in India during the study period. The variance decomposition analysis reveals that the Indian stock prices are strongly exogenous in the sense that the crude oil price or exchange rate explains only a very small portion of the forecast variance error of the market index. Finally, from the impulse response functions analysis it is noticed that a positive shock in one variable have a persistent and prolonged effect on other variables.
Download or read book A Dynamic Relationship Between Us Dollar Exchange Rate and Indian Crude Oil Prices written by Dr. Arpit Sidhu and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Present paper investigates the relationship among oil prices and exchange rates in Indian market. Present paper uses two econometrics tools of dependence to establish co-movement amongst the variables viz. Johansen co-integration and Granger Causality tests to demonstrate that the foreign exchange value of the US dollar (Crude oil prices) has a substantial impact on the prices of crude oil (Exchange rate of US dollar) in long-term as well as short-term or not. The results evidenced that data is stationary at first difference order. However, Johansen co-integration suggests no co-integrating equation. It signifies the possibilities to take advantage from arbitrage activities in the long-run through diversification of the investment portfolios in these two non-integrated markets. Granger causality and Wald statistics evidences unidirectional causality flowing from exchange rate to oil prices but not vice-versa. Since exchange rate granger causes the oil prices, the participants in the foreign exchange market can use information of exchange rates to improve the forecast of crude oil prices. The results of present study have policy implications for oil importing countries to frame foreign exchange risk management, fiscal and monetary policies in such a way to control exchange rate induced pressures on crude oil prices as crude oil prices predominantly affect the emerging oil dependent industrialized economies like India.
Download or read book An Empirical Study on the Dynamic Relationship Between Oil Prices and Indian Stock Market written by Tarak Nath Sahu and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Purpose- This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationships between oil price shocks and Indian stock market.Design/methodology/approach- The study used daily data for the period starting from January 2001 to March 2013. In this study, Johansen's cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), Granger causality test, impulse response functions (IRFs) and variance decompositions (VDCs) test have been applied to exhibit the long-run and short-run relationship between them.Findings- The cointegration result indicates the existence of long-term relationship. Further, the error correction term of VECM shows a long-run causality moves from Indian stock market to oil price but not the vice versa. The results of the Granger causality test under the VECM framework confirm that no short-run causality between the variables exists. The VDCs analysis revealed that the Indian stock markets and crude oil prices are strongly exogenous. Finally, from the IRFs, analysis revealed that a positive shock in oil price has a small but persistence and growing positive impact on Indian stock markets in short run.Originality/value- The study would enhance the understandings of the interaction between oil price volatilities and emerging stock market performances. Further, the study would enable foreign investors who are interested in Indian stock market helps in understanding the conditional relationship between the variables.
Download or read book Price Income and Cross elasticity of Crude Oil Demand written by Nikhil Kaushik and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper attempts to establish short-run as well as long-run relationship among crude oil consumption, international crude oil prices, GDP, domestic crude oil production, coal production and exchange rate in India. The study employs vector error correction model over the time span from 2001 to 2017. To inspect changes caused due to endogenous variables in the system, impulse response function and variance decomposition are applied.The results show that both short-run and long-run price and income elasticities are inelastic. Only GDP and oil production have significant effect on the crude oil demand in short-run indicating that increase in economic growth and domestic production leads to rise in crude oil demand irrespective of price, coal production and exchange rate. However, in the long-run, crude oil demand is significantly influenced by all the variables (inelastic). GDP and exchange rate influence crude oil demand in India more than any other variable considered in the study as growth in economy leads to higher demand for crude oil and favourable exchange rate fluctuations positively influences oil imports consequentially, oil demand.The outcome of the study concludes that India must take measures to combat oil price shocks. India has a strong renewable energy potential in terms of solar and wind energy which can contribute to India's energy security and reduce crude oil import demand in India. Moreover, India must improve strategic oil reserves as it can hold 90 days' oil reserves as instructed by the International Energy Agency but currently it has only oil reserves of 13 days.
Download or read book Impact of Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate on Performance of Indian Stock Market written by Saurabh Singh and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to investigate empirically the dynamic relationship among crude oil price, exchange rate and Indian stock market. Using daily data of Crude oil price, Dollar-Rupee value and Nifty returns from April 2010 to March 2015, correlation, regression and Granger-causality approach in a bi-variate VAR framework has been used to investigate the causality between crude oil and nifty returns; exchange rate and nifty returns. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test has been used to test whether the data is stationary or not. The outcome of the study was there is a significant negative correlation between nifty returns and exchange rate and significant positive correlation between nifty returns and crude oil, and a unidirectional causality running from nifty returns to exchange rates and crude oil price to nifty returns.
Download or read book Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Stock Price in India written by Gurmeet Singh and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study investigates the relationships between exchange rate and stock price over the period January 2007 to March 2014. Index National Stock Exchange, namely, NIFTY is used as indicator of stock price. Johansen's co-integration and Granger causality test have been applied to explore the long-run and short-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and stock price. The analysis reveals that exchange rate and stock price are co-integrated and, hence, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. It is observed that the exchange rate and NIFTY as indicators of stock price are positively related to each other. The exchange rate is found to be significant in determining stock price and stock price significantly affects exchange rate. In the Granger-causality sense, exchange rate Granger-causes stock price and stock price Granger-causes exchange rate, or there is bi-directional causality between exchange rate and stock price in both long run and short run.
Download or read book Nexus Between Crude Oil Price Exchange Rate and Stock Market written by Muhammad Ashiq Am and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 3 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables like crude oil price, exchange rate, gold price, GDP, Inflation etc. have been widely studied in the context of developed countries and few studies on emerging and developing countries are also done. An attempt is made here to study specifically the impact of crude oil price volatility on stock prices and exchange rates on the basis of crude oil export and import volume. Monthly data from January 2004 to December 2015 has been collected for nine countries from the list of top 20 oil importing and exporting countries for stock prices, exchange rate of each country against US dollar. We use the Johansen Fisher Panel Cointegration Test to ensure the existence of long-run relation and Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) to estimate the Cointegrating parameters. Results reveals that there is a long run equilibrium relationship among Stock price, Exchange rate and Oil price in the case of both panels of selected countries.
Download or read book VAR Analysis on Mutual Relationship Between Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate and the Role of World Oil Price and World Gold Price written by Filus Raraga and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study aims to analyze the influence of world oil price and world gold price on mutual relations between exchange rate and stock price index. This study uses monthly data of exchange rate (IDR/US$) and JCI from January 2000 to January 2013. Co integration test was used in analyzing long-term relationships between variables. VAR model was used in determining whether world oil prices and world gold price affect the exchange rate and stock index, and analyze the interrelationships between exchange rate and stock price index. Impulse Response Analysis is used to determine the response of exchange rate and the stock price index on world oil price shocks and world gold price shocks. Analysis of Variance Decomposition is used to determine the role of world oil prices and world gold prices in explaining the movement of exchange rate and JCI. Co integration analysis results show that all the variables, ie, world oil prices, gold prices, exchange rates and JCI have long run co integration. The analysis showed that the world oil price has significant effect on the exchange rate but has no effect on JCI; the world gold price has no effect on exchange rate and JCI; exchange rate has significant effect on JCI and vice versa. Granger causality test showed that JCI and exchange rate have bidirectional relationship. Impulse Response Analysis results indicate that the world oil price shocks responded negatively by exchange rate; shocks in world gold prices responded negatively by JCI and exchange rate; exchange rate changes responded positively by JCI, and JCI changes responded positively by exchange rate.
Download or read book An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics written by Ramazan Gençay and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2001-10-12 with total page 383 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics presents a unified view of filtering techniques with a special focus on wavelet analysis in finance and economics. It emphasizes the methods and explanations of the theory that underlies them. It also concentrates on exactly what wavelet analysis (and filtering methods in general) can reveal about a time series. It offers testing issues which can be performed with wavelets in conjunction with the multi-resolution analysis. The descriptive focus of the book avoids proofs and provides easy access to a wide spectrum of parametric and nonparametric filtering methods. Examples and empirical applications will show readers the capabilities, advantages, and disadvantages of each method. The first book to present a unified view of filtering techniques Concentrates on exactly what wavelets analysis and filtering methods in general can reveal about a time series Provides easy access to a wide spectrum of parametric and non-parametric filtering methods
Download or read book An Analysis of Interaction Among Macroeconomic Variables Through Cointegration and Causality Approach written by Khalid Ashraf Chisti and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims at examining the relationship between stock market prices (Nifty 50) India & macroeconomic variables (Exchange rate, Foreign Institutional Investment and Crude oil prices) for the period 2007-08 Q1 to 2017-18 Q3. In order to achieve the objectives of the study, the researchers employed Granger Causality, multiple regression and Johansen's Cointegration test. The results confirmed that there is a unidirectional relationship between crude oil prices and stock prices. Further the study confirms that FII and Oil prices are individually capable of influencing stock prices. Johansen's Cointegration test exhibits the absence of long run relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables (Exchange Rate and Oil prices). However, the findings put forth by the present study affirmed that Foreign Institutional Investment and Oil prices are capable of individually influencing Stock prices of Nifty 50. The null hypothesis of regression model, that is, macroeconomic variables have no impact on stock prices has been rejected because the f-statistic shows that the macroeconomic variables have statistically significant relationship with stock prices (Nifty 50).
Download or read book Macroeconomic Variables and Security Prices in India during the Liberalized Period written by Tarak Nath Sahu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-01-01 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The liberalization and globalization of the Indian economy has made India more vulnerable to macro issues. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in India. The research findings and policy implications discussed here may also be relevant for other emerging economies.
Download or read book Data Driven Approaches for Effective Managerial Decision Making written by Anubha and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2023-05-08 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In todays competitive market, a manager must be able to look at data, understand it, analyze it, and then interpret it to design a smart business strategy. Big data is also a valuable source of information on how customers interact with firms through various mediums such as social media platforms, online reviews, and many more. The applications and uses of business analytics are numerous and must be further studied to ensure they are utilized appropriately. Data-Driven Approaches for Effective Managerial Decision Making investigates management concepts and applications using data analytics and outlines future research directions. The book also addresses contemporary advancements and innovations in the field of management. Covering key topics such as big data, business intelligence, and artificial intelligence, this reference work is ideal for managers, business owners, industry professionals, researchers, scholars, academicians, practitioners, instructors, and students.
Download or read book ASSOCIATIONS AMONG GOLD PRICE CRUDE OIL PRICE AND INDIAN STOCK MARKET written by Amalendu Bhunia and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
