Download or read book Alternative Theories of Output Unemployment and Inflation in Germany 1960 1985 written by Christine Sauer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: by Jerome L. Stein Disenchantment with Keynesian econollics developed during the post-1968 period when the rate of growth of output declined, the rate of unemployment rose, and the rate of inflation increased in the U.S. and in other countries. This paradox, called stagflation, was inconsistent with the tenet of Keynesian economics that cyclical movemants in prices and output relative to their respective trends are positively correlated. A search occurred for a more satisfactory theory of macroeconomics which could explain the paradox of stagflation and the observed economic phenomena. The New Classical Economics (NCE) developed as the total rejection of Keynesian economics. The Keynesians claimed that their demand management policies contributed to the obsolescence of the business cycle and successfully eliminated the gap between full employment (potential) output and actusl output. The NCE argued just the opposite: the unemplo~nt rate or growth rate of real output is insensitive to systematic demand management policies [Lucas; Sargent and Wallace].
Download or read book Biophotonics and Coherent Systems in Biology written by L.V. Beloussov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-11-01 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an account of the original papers presented by the participants of the 3rd Alexander Gurwitsch Conference on the Biophotonics and Coherent Systems in Biology, Biophysics and Biotechnology which took place in Tauric University (Crimea, Ukraine) September 27 – October 1, 2004. It features an introduction by Dr. Fritz-Albert Popp (International Institute for Biophysics), leading pioneer of biophotons.
Download or read book A Macroeconomic Model of West German Unemployment written by Michael Reutter and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book was accepted in 1999 as doctoral thesis (Dr. oec. publ. ) by the faculty of economics of the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat in Munich. It won the dissertation price of the Alumni-Club of the economics faculty in the academic year 2000. Financial assistance by the German Research Asso ciation (DFG) for printing costs is gratefully acknowledged. I have to thank the people behind the B\'IF,X-project, in particular Donald Knuth and Leslie Lamport, for their wonderful typesetting program. The supervisors of my thesis were Prof. Dr. G. Flaig and Prof. Dr. D. Marin. I would like thank both for their thorough reading of the book and their ideas and critical remarks. lowe much gratitude to my academic teacher Prof. Dr. G. Flaig for many insightful conversations about modern time series econometrics, asymptotic theory and data problems. His empha sis on clear theory combined with sound econometric methods formed my personal ideal of how to do applied economics. After he left the university in 1998I had the opportunity to continue my work at the Center for Economic Studies. Prof. Dr. H. -W. Sinn and my new colleaguesat CES provided a stim ulating environment for the completion of my dissertation. Finally, I want to thank my parents, my sister and my friends for being there and sharing my cheers and worries. Munich, October 2000 Michael Reutter Our main concern in philosophy and in science should be the search fortruth. Justification is not an aim; and brilliance and cleverness as such are boring.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Determination and Optimal Economic Policy Under Various Exchange Rate Regimes written by Eelke de Jong and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-12-19 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1.1 Some characteristics of the floating exchange rate system The flexible exchange rate system has functioned far less satisfactorily than many anticipated in 1973, when the major industrialized countries decided to let their currencies float. The dominant currencies' exchange rates have fluctuated more 1 than expected. These fluctuations concern both short-term movement- intraday fluctuations and movements during a week or a month - and long term changes that last for more than a year. Daily percentage changes of one percent are not unusual for the recent float (see MacDonald, 1988, p.8). However, the release of new information can give rise to much larger changes. For example in August 1987 "the dollar moved down 6 percent in two days based on the July trade figures" (Glynn, 1988, p. 36). For the period 1973-1985 MacDonald (1988, p.10) presents minimum and maximum monthly percentage exchange rate changes. These figures clearly illustrate the magnitude of the volatility and also show that the volatility has not diminished as the experience 2 with floating has increased. In addition to this volatility, exchange rates are also characterized by misalignment: "persistent departure of the exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium" (Williamson, 1983, p.l3). Although the measure of misalignment depends upon the exact definition of the exchange rate's long-run equilibrium, there is a widespread feeling that during the greater part of the 1970s the dollar was undervalued, whereas it was overvalued during the first half of the 1980s.
Download or read book Decision Processes in Economics written by Gianni Ricci and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the symposium on "Decision processes in Economics" which was held in Modena (Italy) on 9-10 October 1989. It coincided with the annual meeting of the italian group on Game Theory; the group is formed by economists, mathematicians, engineers and social scientists. One of the targets of the Meeting, and therefore of the book, is to create an opportunity for having together papers by scientists with an "optimal control" education and papers by theorists on refinement of equilibrium, on repeted games and other topics. These two modes of working on Games are quite different but we think that a unitary approch to Games can be given and this book is an attempt in this direction. Another important and updated issue which is emphisized in the book is the discussion of computation and efficiency of numerical methods in Games. Stochastic differential games are treated in the papers by Basar, Haurie -and Deissemberg. Basar considers a stochastic model of a conflict situation between the monetary policy maker (go vernment) and the responding agent (private sector). Because of asymmetry in the (stochastic) information available the Nash and the Stackelberg games become non standard stochastic diffe rential games. After the discussion of the conditions leading to a solution he provides a numerical example for the proposed game. Haurie considers a game where the observed state changes according to a stochastic jump process.
Download or read book Regime Transitions Spillovers and Buffer Stocks written by Peter Stalder and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents an econometric modeling approach for analysing macroeconomic disequilibria, focusing on the market for goods and labor and the spillovers between these markets transmitted through firms' decisions in the production sphere. The macroeconomic markets are treated as heterogeneous aggregates, consisting of a multitute of micro markets on which demand/supply ratios differ. Disequilibrium models have been under attack because they neglect that inventories enable firms to smooth production over the cycle, but the author argues that buffer stocks (output inventories, unfilled orders) should be accounted for within the disequilibrium framework, giving rise to a dynamic modification rather than a fundamental invalidation of rationing and spillover effects. The model developed in this book combines traditional Keynesian-type analysis with supply-side considerations and at the same time allows for micro-level imbalance. The resulting econometric structure is inherently nonlinear, reflecting that the response of economic activity to demand-side and supply-side factors varies over the cycle, depending on the aggregate mix of regimes. The model is estimated with quarterly data for Switzerland. Various simulation experiments clearly demonstrate the potential of this type of model for empirical business cycle analysis and policy discussions.
Download or read book Balanced Silverman Games on General Discrete Sets written by Gerald A. Heuer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Silverman game is a two-person zero-sum game defined in terms of two sets S I and S II of positive numbers, and two parameters, the threshold T > 1 and the penalty v > 0. Players I and II independently choose numbers from S I and S II, respectively. The higher number wins 1, unless it is at least T times as large as the other, in which case it loses v. Equal numbers tie. Such a game might be used to model various bidding or spending situations in which within some bounds the higher bidder or bigger spender wins, but loses if it is overdone. Such situations may include spending on armaments, advertising spending or sealed bids in an auction. Previous work has dealt mainly with special cases. In this work recent progress for arbitrary discrete sets S I and S II is presented. Under quite general conditions, these games reduce to finite matrix games. A large class of games are completely determined by the diagonal of the matrix, and it is shown how the great majority of these appear to have unique optimal strategies. The work is accessible to all who are familiar with basic noncooperative game theory.
Download or read book Are Policy Variables Exogenous written by Balazs Horvath and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1991-08-28 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the econometric implications of a policy-maker's learning. In a simple discrete model the policymaker maximizes the discounted sum of tax revenues subject to a constraint which involves an unknown parameter specifying the occurrence of Bayesian learning. An optimal balance needs to be found between maximizing current payoff and generating information which enhances the efficiency of maximization in subsequent periods. Learning is demonstrated to affect the exogeneity status of policy variables in small samples and to have implications analogous to the phenomenon in the focus of the Lucas critique. Active learning is proven to be a distinct cause of time inconsistency of optimal plane. It is argued that learning cannot be dismissed as a merely transitory source of these phenomena. A simulation exercise supplies quantitative evidence. Finally, the data generated are used to perform empirical exogeneity tests. Results show that the effect of Bayesian learning is empirically detectable. Learning is generally accepted as the driving force towards a rational expectations equilibrium with perfect information. In this context, the result on the loss of exogeneity of policy variables is an out-of-equilibrium econometric implication of the rational expectations hypothesis. This book is the first to explore the effect of an informational feedback on exogeneity.
Download or read book Degeneracy Graphs and Simplex Cycling written by Peter Zörnig and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many problems in economics can be formulated as linearly constrained mathematical optimization problems, where the feasible solution set X represents a convex polyhedral set. In practice, the set X frequently contains degenerate verti- ces, yielding diverse problems in the determination of an optimal solution as well as in postoptimal analysis.The so- called degeneracy graphs represent a useful tool for des- cribing and solving degeneracy problems. The study of dege- neracy graphs opens a new field of research with many theo- retical aspects and practical applications. The present pu- blication pursues two aims. On the one hand the theory of degeneracy graphs is developed generally, which will serve as a basis for further applications. On the other hand dege- neracy graphs will be used to explain simplex cycling, i.e. necessary and sufficient conditions for cycling will be de- rived.
Download or read book Interactive Fuzzy Optimization written by Mario Fedrizzi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The title of this book seems to indicate that the volume is dedicated to a very specialized and narrow area, i. e. , to the relationship between a very special type of optimization and mathematical programming. The contrary is however true. Optimization is certainly a very old and classical area which is of high concern to many disciplines. Engineering as well as management, politics as well as medicine, artificial intelligence as well as operations research, and many other fields are in one way or another concerned with optimization of designs, decisions, structures, procedures, or information processes. It is therefore not surprising that optimization has not grown in a homogeneous way in one discipline either. Traditionally, there was a distinct difference between optimization in engineering, optimization in management, and optimization as it was treated in mathematical sciences. However, for the last decades all these fields have to an increasing degree interacted and contributed to the area of optimization or decision making. In some respects, new disciplines such as artificial intelligence, descriptive decision theory, or modern operations research have facilitated, or even made possible the interaction between the different classical disciplines because they provided bridges and links between areas which had been developing and applied quite independently before. The development of optimiiation over the last decades can best be appreciated when looking at the traditional model of optimization. For a well-structured, Le.
Download or read book Parallel Computing and Mathematical Optimization written by Manfred Grauer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This special volume contains the Proceedings of a Workshop on "Parallel Algorithms and Transputers for Optimization" which was held at the University of Siegen, on November 9, 1990. The purpose of the Workshop was to bring together those doing research on 2.lgorithms for parallel and distributed optimization and those representatives from industry and business who have an increasing demand for computing power and who may be the potential users of nonsequential approaches. In contrast to many other conferences, especially North-American, on parallel processing and supercomputers the main focus of the contributions and discussion was "problem oriented". This view reflects the following philosophy: How can the existing computing infrastructure (PC's, workstations, local area networks) of an institution or a company be used for parallel and/or distributed problem solution in optimization. This volume of the LECfURE NOTES ON ECONOMICS AND MA THEMA TICAL SYSTEMS contains most of the papers presented at the workshop, plus some additional invited papers covering other important topics related to this workshop. The papers appear here grouped according to four general areas. (1) Solution of optimization problems using massive parallel systems (data parallelism). The authors of these papers are: Lootsma; Gehne. (II) Solution of optimization problems using coarse-grained parallel approaches on multiprocessor systems (control parallelism). The authors of these papers are: Bierwirth, Mattfeld, and Stoppler; Schwartz; Boden, Gehne, and Grauer; and Taudes and Netousek.
Download or read book Linear Models with Correlated Disturbances written by Paul Knottnerus and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In each chapter of this volume some specific topics in the econometric analysis of time series data are studied. All topics have in common the statistical inference in linear models with correlated disturbances. The main aim of the study is to give a survey of new and old estimation techniques for regression models with disturbances that follow an autoregressive-moving average process. In the final chapter also several test strategies for discriminating between various types of autocorrelation are discussed. In nearly all chapters it is demonstrated how useful the simple geometric interpretation of the well-known ordinary least squares (OLS) method is. By applying these geometric concepts to linear spaces spanned by scalar stochastic variables, it emerges that well-known as well as new results can be derived in a simple geometric manner, sometimes without the limiting restrictions of the usual derivations, e. g. , the conditional normal distribution, the Kalman filter equations and the Cramer-Rao inequality. The outline of the book is as follows. In Chapter 2 attention is paid to a generalization of the well-known first order autocorrelation transformation of a linear regression model with disturbances that follow a first order Markov scheme. Firstly, the appropriate lower triangular transformation matrix is derived for the case that the disturbances follow a moving average process of order q (MA(q». It turns out that the calculations can be carried out either analytically or in a recursive manner.
Download or read book Optimal Firm Behaviour in the Context of Technological Progress and a Business Cycle written by Onno van Hilten and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis is a theoretical study of the optimal dynamic policies of a, to some extent, slowly adjusting firm that faces an exogeneously given technological progress and an exogeneously given business cycle. It belongs to the area of mathematical economics. It is intended to appeal to mathematical economists in the first place, economists in the second place and mathematicians in the third place. It entails an attempt to stretch the limits of the application of deterministic dynamic optimisation to economics, in particular to firm behaviour. A well-known· Dutch economist (and trained mathematician) recently stated in 1 a local university newspaper that mathematical economists give economics a bad reputation, since they formulate their problems from a mathematical point of view and they are only interested in technical, mathematical problems. At the same time, however, "profound as economists may be, when it comes to extending or modifying the existing theory to make it applicable to a certain economic problem, an understanding of optimal control theory (which is the mathematical theory used in this thesis, ovh) based solely on heuristic arguments will often turn out to be inadequate" (SydS
Download or read book A Structural Analysis of Expectation Formation written by Marc Ivaldi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using panel data of individual firms drawn from French surveys, a structural analysis is developed to study the formation of production plans and the rationality of expectations. The production decision of a firm is defined as the optimal solution of a dynamic stochastic optimization problem. The empirical work amounts to recovering the structural parameters characterizing the model of the firm from estimates of the derived decision rule. The preceding analysis of production plans is based on the assumption that firms are rational. To justify this assumption, direct tests offer evidence that the Rational Expectations Hypothesis may not be rejected for quantity variables.
Download or read book The Visible Hand written by Reiner B. Koblo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last decade highly innovatory developments have taken place in theoretical economics. The new focus of interest seems to be twofold: Firstly, nonlinear models for dynamic processes of the economy are constructed to extend the scope of linear models for tlle stationary euqilibrium state; and secondly a new approach is made to solve the everlasting problem of the relation between micro-and macro-economics. The interdisciplinary field of synergetics is deeply involved in this evolution. The author has made a remarkable contribution to both foci: His application of synergetic concepts to the theory of business cycles combines a partial solution of the micro-macro-problem, namely the modelling of the macro-economic effect of the decisions of investors, producers and consumers, with the natural introduction of nonlinearities. The arising new business cycle theory can on the one side be validated by empirical evidence and on the other hand the typical behavior of nonlinear dynamic systems including the transition to deterministic chaos can be clearly demonstrated. The hope is justified that the model presented in this book is a fw·ther important step in reaching a new level of the quantitative comprehension of dynamic phenomena in the economy. Stuttgart, June 1991 Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Weidlich Foreword It is the author's objective to explain macroeconomic processes on the basis of micro economic decision-making behaviour. In order to achieve this goal, the concept of synergetics is presented as a method of describing dynamic phenomena in multi-com ponent systems with cooperative interactions between their elements.
Download or read book The Elements of a Nonlinear Theory of Economic Dynamics written by Carl Chiarella and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elements of a Nonlinear Theory of Economic Dynamics provides both a framework and a survey of its needs. First, principle results and techniques of the theory relevant to applications in dynamic economics are discussed, then their application in view of older endogenous cycle theories are considered in a unified mathematical framework. Models incorporating the government budget constraint and the Goodwin model are analysed using the method of averaging and the centre manifold theory. The dynamic instability problem is solved by placing models in a nonlinear framework.
Download or read book Descriptive Theories of Bargaining written by Gerald R. Uhlich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this book is the presentation of two new descriptive theories for experimental bargaining games and a comparison with other descriptive and normative theories. To obtain data it was necessary to develop two sets of computer programs for computer controlled ex periments. Moreover, data obtained by other researchers, which are available to us will be included in this study. The use of laboratory experiments in economics was introduced by THURSTONE [1931] in the field of utility theory. CHAMBERLIN [1948] was the first person to establish an expe rimental market for the purpose of testing a theory. The first experiment on characteristic function games was done by KALISH, MILNOR, NASH, and NERING [1954]. Today the use of experiments in controlled laboratory settings has become widespread. Earlier, economists went into the field to observe phenomena as the behavior of individuals, corporations and nations in action, then they formulated theories to explain what they saw. But unlike natural scientists, economists have not been able to test their theories under controlled conditions. Now experimental economists are able to replicate their results. Replication is very proble matic for field studies, because rarely the same conditions can be established again. Moreover, experimenters are able to test theories for situations described by simplified models which are not observable in the real world.
