Download or read book Alternative Futures and Army Force Planning written by Brian Nichiporuk and published by Minnesota Historical Society. This book was released on 2005 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What should the U.S. Army look like in 20 years? Using the tool of alternative futures analysis, this study attempts to help the Army with force planning for the 2025 era. It lays out a spectrum of different "future worlds" to illustrate the complete universe of future missions. Analyzing possible trends across five key areas (geopolitics, economics, demographics, technology, and environment), the study defines six alternative futures and postulates an appropriate "Army type" for each one.
Download or read book Alternative Futures and Their Implications for Army Modernization written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As it carries out its long-term force structure and modernization plans, one useful approach for the Army to take is based on the analysis of "alternative futures." Having developed several plausible alternative futures (looking out roughly 25 years), the authors describe each one's possible implications for the Army's likely mission and the forces required for those missions, discussing the impact on Army modernization plans. The futures range from a benign, relatively peaceful world all the way to a dangerous, chaotic world containing many "failed states." The research indicated that the creation of medium forces was a good long-range strategy for the Army, since those forces appeared to be relevant in many of the possible futures. Traditional heavy forces were found to be useful in a limited number of the possible futures and should therefore receive relatively fewer modernization resources. Army aviation appeared to be applicable to most of the futures, but there could be a need to shift the balance from attack-type aviation to transport aircraft, depending on which future appeared more likely. In all cases, increased C4ISR seemed to be a very important capability. Even within that category, however, there might be a need to focus C4ISR resources in different ways. For example, in some futures, there would be a need to stress unconventional operations in urban areas rather than systems more applicable to locating conventional enemy forces in open terrain.
Download or read book Strategic Horizons written by Steven Metz and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 1997 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Year ago the Chief of Staff of the Army initiated the Army After Next Project (AANP) as a means of stimulating constructive thinking about the Army's future throughout the service. AANP has quickly developed into a primary vehicle for long-range planning. Under the leadership of the Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), the AANP has conducted an ambitious program of studies, symposia and workshops, culminating in a Winter War Game and Senior Seminar held at Carlisle, January 27-February 6, 1997. A key line of initial inquiry for us has been to forecast the nature of the future security environment in which the Army will operate. That is the task Dr. Steven Metz set for himself in this monograph. In the pages that follow he propounds "currents of change" that will determine the future and sketches a series of plausible future security systems. Each system is characterized by the forms of conflict that will dominate it, the major strategic issues the United States might face, and the resulting military implications. While Dr. Metz's analysis leads to observations certain to be controversial, he illustrates quite clearly the primacy that environmental context will have in shaping our national security outlook and military strategy. Thus, Dr. Metz's observations on trends and systems warrant careful consideration as national policymakers and the Army's leaders build the military force of the future.
Download or read book Alternative Futures and Their Implications for Army Modernization written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As it carries out its long-term force structure and modernization plans, one useful approach for the Army to take is based on the analysis of "alternative futures." Having developed several plausible alternative futures (looking out roughly 25 years), the authors describe each one's possible implications for the Army's likely mission and the forces required for those missions, discussing the impact on Army modernization plans. The futures range from a benign, relatively peaceful world all the way to a dangerous, chaotic world containing many "failed states." The research indicated that the creation of medium forces was a good long-range strategy for the Army, since those forces appeared to be relevant in many of the possible futures. Traditional heavy forces were found to be useful in a limited number of the possible futures and should therefore receive relatively fewer modernization resources. Army aviation appeared to be applicable to most of the futures, but there could be a need to shift the balance from attack-type aviation to transport aircraft, depending on which future appeared more likely. In all cases, increased C4ISR seemed to be a very important capability. Even within that category, however, there might be a need to focus C4ISR resources in different ways. For example, in some futures, there would be a need to stress unconventional operations in urban areas rather than systems more applicable to locating conventional enemy forces in open terrain.
Download or read book Strategic Horizons written by Steven Metz and published by . This book was released on 1997-03-07 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A year ago the Chief of Staff of the Army initiated the Army After Next Project (AANP) as a means of stimulating constructive thinking about the Army's future throughout the service. AANP has quickly developed into a primary vehicle for long-range planning. Under the leadership of the Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), the AANP has conducted an ambitious program of studies, symposia and workshops, culminating in a Winter War Game and Senior Seminar held at Carlisle, January 27-February 6, 1997. In addition to supporting TRADOC's AANP through the world class simulation and gaming facilities of the Center for Strategic Leadership, the Army War College has begun a complementary research project, combining the talents of faculty and students. A key line of initial inquiry for us has been to forecast the nature of the future security environment in which the Army will operate. That is the task Dr. Steven Metz set for himself in this monograph. In the pages that follow he propounds "currents of change" that will determine the future and sketches a series of plausible future security systems. Each system is characterized by the forms of conflict that will dominate it, the major strategic issues the United States might face, and the resulting military implications. While Dr. Metz's analysis leads to observations certain to be controversial, he illustrates quite clearly the primacy that environmental context will have in shaping our national security outlook and military strategy. Thus, Dr. Metz's observations on trends and systems warrant careful consideration as national policymakers and the Army's leaders build the military force of the future.
Download or read book The Alternative Futures Approach to Long range Planning written by James L. Morrison and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Strategic Horizons written by Steve Metz and published by . This book was released on 1997-03 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author attempts to forecast the nature of the future security environment in which the Army will operate. He sketches a number of feasible future global security environments, and assesses the implications each might hold for the U.S. Army. Each system is described with respect to the forms of conflict that will dominate it, the major strategic issues the United States might face, and the resulting military implications.
Download or read book Alternative World Scenarios for Strategic Planning written by Charles W. Taylor and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Futures Report offers Department of the Army (DA) and Department of Defense (DOD) planners, decisionmakers, and policymakers useful ways to describe and examine alternative futures. The report provides methods to project trends or events into the long-range future while retaining their plausibility. Additionally, it presents possible alternative conditions, trends and events that are likely to influence and challenge future defense postures. Finally, the report introduces a plausible framework for considering common future world environments in midrange and long-range planning. (FR).
Download or read book Some Alternative Futures and Their Military Implications written by David E. Albright and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of assumptions about continuities relevant to US military strategy and force structure underlie much of the analysis in the contributions to the Airpower Research Institute's (ARI) study of The Future of the Air Force. Three of the propositions have to do with the international environment, and two concern the internal US situation. If circumstances other than the ones foreseen do emerge, these circumstances could have implications for both US military strategy and US force structure that vary from the prescriptions of contributors to ARI's study. Some of the deviations might even be quite significant.
Download or read book Some Alternative Futures and Their Military Implications written by David E. Albright and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Alternative Military Strategies For The Future written by Keith A. Dunn and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-03-04 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this volume, prominent civilian and military experts in defense, representing the maritime-continental coalition, military reform, and noninterventionist schools of thought, outline the changes in military strategy, policy, and force structure that they believe the United States must adopt if it is to cope successfully with threats to national security in the 1980s and 1990s. The authors analyze US interests and objectives, the changing strategic environment, and the major security threats facing the United States in the coming decades. They also discuss what they believe is the proper mix of political, economic, and military instruments for dealing with fixture threats. The alternative strategies they present are wide-ranging and comprehensive, running the gamut from a strategic withdrawal from global commitments to proposals for increasing US power projection and forcible entry capabilities in the Third World. In many ways the chapters are critical of current and past approaches to military strategy. The authors believe it is essential that strategists understand the existing critiques of current U.S. military strategy in order to make the correct policy decisions for the future.
Download or read book Assumption Based Planning for Army 21 written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report presents results of one phase of a project called Future Combat Development Concepts. The project supports the Training and Doctrine Command's (TRADOC's) work toward understanding future combat development and doctrine issues. This particular report is intended to help TRADOC develop Army 21, a vision of the Army and an operational concept appropriate for 15 to 30 years in the future. The Army 21 effort entails the development of a set of plausible alternative worlds that could eventuate within that span of time. The results of this study are most relevant to those interested in future Army concepts and doctrine. Since Army 21 is an integral part of the Army Long-Range Planning System, the report will interest Army long-range planners. However, the methodologies used in this study are more general and should also be of interest to other long-range planners looking for an alternative to trend-based approaches to futures planning. Section 2 of this report describes the methodology the authors developed for Army 21 specifically and for long-range planning in general. It includes a description of the methodology and a comparison of that methodology with a more common approach to long-range planning that concentrates on trend extrapolation. Section 3 describes the implementation of the first step of the methodology: identification and analysis of the assumptions underlying AirLand Battle-Future (ALB-F). Section 4 describes the identification, by means of an innovative Delphi exercise, of plausible changes in the world in 25 to 30 years that would affect the Army and its operational concept. These steps are critical in the generation of alternative future scenarios that stress the ALB-F Umbrella Concept. Section 4 also explains how the assumptions and plausible changes are combined to generate the alternative future scenarios and describes the scenarios thus generated. Section 5 offers conclusions and observations. (5 tables).
Download or read book U S Military Capabilities and Forces for a Dangerous World written by David A. Ochmanek and published by . This book was released on 2018-01-29 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report evaluates the capabilities of current and programmed U.S. forces to meet the demands of future conflicts and recommends alternative forces that appear to be better suited than today's forces to meeting those demands.
Download or read book Army National Guard Future Planning Workbook written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Assumption based Planning for Army 21 written by James A. Dewar and published by . This book was released on 1992-01-01 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes a long-range planning methodology developed for Army 21 - an Army planning exercise designed to envision how the Army will fight between 15 and 30 years in the future - and demonstrates a partial implementation of the methodology by generating a set of alternative futures. In applying the methodology to the AirLand Battle-Future (ALB-F) concept, the authors found that the scenarios generated can be properly used to do two things: think about actions that should be taken in current planning to begin preparing for the eventuation of any of the scenarios, and identify "signposts"--Events or trends that would suggest the world had taken an important turn toward one of the challenges to the ALB-F concept. The authors also found the methodology could be improved by developing a rudimentary theory of assumptions to guide their discovery and formulation. Finally, the authors found the ALB-F concept to be robust because it was difficult to come up with assumptions underlying it that might be violated; such a finding implies that doctrine writers will be challenged to develop the concept into a compelling guide to force structure development, training, etc.
Download or read book Alternative Futures and Their Implications for Army Modernization written by John Gordon and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Having developed several plausible alternative futures, the authors of this book describe each one's possible implications for the Army's likely missions and the forces required for those missions, discussing the impact on Army modernization plans.
Download or read book Tomorrow s Wars written by and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditional planning approaches assume the future of an organisation can be predicted accurately enough so that a clear strategic direction can be readily developed. This conventional strategic planning methodology performs adequately when dealing with incremental change within a stable environment but performs less well with dynamic systems in which unexpected events periodically occur. The international system of states has now become such a dynamic system, being notable for unpredicted events and unforeseen circumstances. Uncertainty is now certain. A way to address such problems is to consider what might happen, not solely what is expected to happen. This approach is employed in the Future Operating Environment 2035 that suggests four alternative futures that could potentially eventuate and impact the Australian Defence Force. This paper paper examines these four possibilities to tease out some broad implications including warfighting styles, operational concepts, air power roles and Fundamental Inputs to Capability issues. In looking forward two decades, the paper looks beyond short term imperatives to stimulate the imagination, encouraging creative thinking about our uncertain future. The paper is all about disrupting our preconceptions of what we expect to happen and preparing us for what may happen.
