Download or read book Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and Their Effect on Growth in Sub Saharan Africa written by Tony Addison and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. We choose nine Sub Saharan African countries that are heavily dependent on a single agricultural commodity for a significant portion of their income. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a structural nonlinear dynamic model. The novel aspect of this study is that we adopt the methodology of Kilian and Vigfusson (2011a) to determine whether the response of per capita GDP for the selected Sub Saharan African countries is different to unexpected increases in agricultural commodity prices as opposed to decreases in prices. We conclude that there is very little evidence that an unanticipated price increase (decrease) lead to a significantly different response in per capita incomes.
Download or read book Distortions to Agriculture and Economic Growth in Sub Saharan Africa written by Kym Anderson and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Effects on Growth of Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks written by Jan Dehn and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks, and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex-post shocks, and ex-ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts, and it is both theoretically, and empirically inappropriate to treat them as synonymous. He shows that the interaction between policy, and aid is robust to the inclusion of variables capturing commodity price movements. More important, his approach departs in three ways from earlier empirical studies of the subject: 1) It deals with issues of endogeneity, without incurring an excessive loss of efficiency. 2) It defines the dependent variable to allow an assessment of the longer-term implications of temporary trade shocks. 3) It imposes no priors on how commodity price movements affect growth, but compares and contrasts a range of competing shock, and uncertainty specifications. The author resolves the disagreement about the long-run effect of positive shocks on growth, finding that positive shocks have no long-run impact on growth (that windfalls from trade shocks do not translate into sustainable increases in income). He shows that negative shocks have large, highly significant, and negative effects on growth, but that commodity price uncertainty does not affect growth.
Download or read book Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low Income Countries written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.
Download or read book Price distortions and economic growth in Sub Saharan Africa written by Kym Anderson and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Real Overvaluation Terms of Trade Shocks and the Cost to Agriculture in Sub Saharan Africa written by Ibrahim Elbadawi and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1992 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The observed decline of agriculture and the general worsening of economic conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa are linked to economic distortions, which limit growth.
Download or read book International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak written by Antonio Ciccone and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new dataset by Bazzi and Blattman (2014) allows examining the effects of international commodity prices on the risk of civil war outbreak with more comprehensive data. I find that international commodity price downturns sparked civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Another finding with the new dataset is that commodity price downturns also sparked civil wars beyond Sub-Saharan Africa since 1980. Effects are sizable relative to the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. My conclusions contrast with those of Bazzi and Blattman, who argue that the new dataset rejects that commodity price downturns cause civil wars. The reason is that I calculate commodity price shocks using time invariant (fixed) export shares as commodity weights. Bazzi and Blattman also calculate commodity price shocks using export shares as commodity weights but the exports shares they use are time varying. Using time-invariant export shares as commodity weights ensures that time variation in price shocks solely reflects changes in international commodity prices. Price shocks based on time varying export shares partly reflect (possibly endogenous) changes in the quantity and variety of countries' exports, which jeopardizes causal estimation. I also show that setting time-invariant export shares equal to average export shares over the sample period, can be a way of dealing with attenuation bias due to mismeasured export shares. When I differentiate between agricultural commodities on the one hand and minerals, oil, and gas on the other, I find stronger increases in the risk of civil war outbreak following downturns in agricultural commodity prices.
Download or read book Agricultural Growth Linkages in Sub Saharan Africa written by Christopher L. Delgado and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 1998-01-01 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much extra net income growth can be had in rural areas of Africa by increasing the spending power of local households? The answer depends on how rural households spend increments to income, whether the items desired can be imported to the local area in response to increased demand, and, if not, whether increased demand will lead to new local production or simply to price rises. For every dollar in new farm income earned, at least one additional-tional dollar could be realized from growth multipliers, according to Agricultural Growth Linkages in Sub-Saharan Africa, Research Report 107, by Christopher L. Delgado, Jane Hopkins, and Valerie A. Kelly, with Peter Hazell, Anna A. McKenna, Peter Gruhn, Behjat Hojjati, Jayashree Sil, and Claude Courbois.
Download or read book The Impact of Commodity Price Changes on Rural Households written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Policies and external shocks affecting agriculture, the main source of income for rural households, can be expected to have a significant impact on poverty. The authors study the case of Uganda. Throughout the 1990s, more than 90 percent of its poor lived in rural areas and, during the same period, large international price fluctuations as well as an extensive domestic deregulation affected the coffee sector, its main source of export revenues. Using data from three household surveys covering the 1990s, the authors confirm a strong correlation between changes in coffee prices (in a liberalized market) and poverty reduction. This is highlighted by comparing the performance of different households grouped according to their dependence on coffee farming. Regression analysis (based on pooled data from the three surveys) of consumption expenditure on coffee-related variables, other controls, and time-fixed effects corroborates that the mentioned correlation is not spurious. The authors also find that while both poor and rich farmers enter the coffee sector, the price boom benefits the poorer households relatively more, whereas the liberalization seems to create more opportunities for richer farmers. Finally, notwithstanding the importance of the coffee price boom, the agricultural policy framework and the thorough structural reforms in which the coffee market liberalization was embedded have certainly played a role in triggering overall agricultural growth. These factors appear to matter especially in the second half of the 1990s when prices went down but poverty reduction continued.
Download or read book International Commodity Prices Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub Saharan Africa written by Angus Deaton and published by Princeton University International Finance Section, Department of Econmics. This book was released on 1995 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Africa s Pulse Spring 2015 written by Punam Chuhan-Pole and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-04-13 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Africa’s Pulse is a biannual publication containing an analysis of the near-term macro-economic outlook for the region. It also includes a section focusing on a topic that represents a particular development challenges for the continent. It is produced by the Office of the Chief Economist for the Africa Region.This issue is an analysis of issues shaping Africa's economic future. Growth remains stable in Sub-Saharan Africa. Some countries are seeing a slowdown, but the region's economic prospects remain broadly favorable. External risks of higher global financial market volatility and lower growth in emerging market economies weigh on the downside. In several Sub-Saharan African countries, large budgetary imbalances are a source of vulnerability to exogenous shocks and underscore the need for rebuilding fiscal buffers in these countries. The Ebola outbreak is exacting a heavy human and economic toll on affected countries and, if not rapidly contained, the risk of wider contagion grows. Without a scale-up of effective interventions, growth would slow markedly not only in the core countries (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone), but also in the sub region as transportation, cross-border trade, and supply chains are severely disrupted. In Sub-Saharan Africa, growth in agriculture and services is more effective at reducing poverty than growth in industry. Structural transformation has a role to play in accelerating poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa. Increasing agricultural productivity will be critical to fostering structural transformation. Boosting rural income diversification can facilitate this transformation, as well. Investments in rural public goods and services (for example, education, health, rural roads, electricity and ICT), including in small towns, will be conducive to lifting productivity in the rural economy. Although Sub-Saharan Africa's pattern of growth has largely bypassed manufacturing, growing the region's manufacturing base, especially by improving its fundamentals, lower transport cost, cheaper and more reliable power, and a more educated labor force, will benefit all sectors.
Download or read book African Agricultural Reforms written by M. Ataman Aksoy and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-06-25 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the 1990s, SSA countries initiated agricultural policy reforms to increase producer incentives and increase growth. Yet, agricultural growth rates after the reforms have been uneven. This has been attributed to lack of supporting infrastructure or the inability to respond to incentives by the smallholders. Based on ten studies, this volume provides a different framework to interpret the outcomes. First, it attributes the success of the reforms to the degree of consensus around the reform programs, which in turn, creates the institutions that can accommodate unexpected shocks. It differentiates between short run growth accelerations and sustained growth episodes. Second, it analyzes the impact of international prices which increased during the early 1990 and collapsed around 2000. Finally, it links the support institutions that evolved after the reforms back to the political economy of the stakeholders and their interests. Aksoy and Anil develop a political economy framework by bringing together the issues of consensus over the distribution of rents, role of unexpected changes, and the capabilities of institutions in handling these changes. Onal tests the of supply responses while Onal and Aksoy analyze international commodity prices and their transmission to the producers. Baffes analyzes impact of the adoption of cotton biotechnology in India and China, and the failure of SSA to also adopt. Baffes and Onal undertake a comparative study of coffee sectors in Uganda, and Vietnam which faced similar shocks. Five case studies cover cashew in Mozambique (Aksoy and Yagci), coffee and tea in Kenya (Mitchell), cashew in Tanzania (Mitchell and Baregu), tobacco in Tanzania (Mitchell and Baregu), and cotton in Zambia (Yagci and Aksoy). Results show that Agricultural policy reforms generated an immediate positive supply response. Real producer prices increased along with output. In unsuccessful cases where the short run supply response petered out, political and social consensus on the reforms was weak, and the ability to redistribute income after a negative shock was not built into the new arrangements. These products had been a major instrument for rent distribution before the reforms. The agencies could not be reformed to give greater non price support. In successful cases, there was greater consensus on the reforms program. The product was not a major rent distribution instrument and the producers were allied with the governments. Lower conflict also led to greater non price support. There was enough political and economic space for the parties to find solutions in case of shocks.
Download or read book The Effects on Growth of Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks written by Jan Dehn and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity export dependency confers ex post shocks and ex ante uncertainty upon producing countries. What reduces growth is not the prospect of volatile world prices, but the actual realization of negative shocks.Dehn estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex post shocks and ex ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts and it is both theoretically and empirically inappropriate to treat them as synonymous.He shows that the interaction between policy and aid is robust to the inclusion of variables capturing commodity price movements. More important, his approach departs in three ways from earlier empirical studies of the subject:- It deals with issues of endogeneity without incurring an excessive loss of efficiency.- It defines the dependent variable to allow an assessment of the longer-term implications of temporary trade shocks.- It imposes no priors on how commodity price movements affect growth, but compares and contrasts a range of competing shock and uncertainty specifications.Dehn resolves the disagreement about the long-run effect of positive shocks on growth, finding that positive shocks have no long-run impact on growth (that windfalls from trade shocks do not translate into sustainable increases in income).He shows that negative shocks have large, highly significant, and negative effects on growth, but that commodity price uncertainty does not affect growth.This paper - a product of Rural Development, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze the impact of commodity price risks on developing economies. The author may be contacted at [email protected].
Download or read book The Effects on Growth of Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks written by Dehn and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility written by Isabelle Piot-Lepetit and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-10-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.
Download or read book Socioeconomic Shocks and Africa s Development Agenda written by Evans Osabuohien and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-11-10 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book investigates how African countries respond to socioeconomic shocks, drawing out lessons to help to inform future policy and development efforts. The challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic affected all sectors of the economy, exposing substantial structural weaknesses and complexities in supply chains and logistics across the African continent. This book examines the disruptive impact of the pandemic across Africa. However, it also goes beyond the current crisis to investigate how socioeconomic pressures in general impact commodity prices, national budgeting processes, food, business, energy sectors, education, health, and sanitation. Overall, the book presents evidence-based solutions and policy recommendations to enable readers to improve resilience and responses to future crises. The insights provided by this book will be of interest to policymakers and development agencies, as well as to researchers of global development, politics, economics, business, and African studies.
Download or read book OECD FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016 2025 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2016-07-04 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 provides an assessment of prospects for the coming decade of the agricultural commodity markets across 41 countries and 12 regions, including OECD countries and key agricultural producers, such as India, China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina.
