Download or read book Agricultural Commodity Price Hikes Since 2006 written by Velmurugan Palaniappan Shanmugam and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Well established and efficient agricultural commodity futures markets, are expected to perform the role of price discovery and risk management more effectively. The results of the Johansen's cointegration tests have shown that the spot and futures markets for the 12 agricultural commodities are cointegrated (during the main and sub-periods of study). This suggests that the markets are efficient and the agriculture commodity futures exchanges (CBOT, KCBT, CME, & ICE) provide efficient hedge against price risks emerging in respective commodities. The Granger causality test results show bi-directional flow of information in majority of the commodities during the main as well as the two sub-periods. This shows both the spot and future markets are equally responsible for the price discovery process. However, examination of the F-statistics indicates a strong flow of information from the futures markets to spot markets than the reverse. The unidirectional causal relationships exhibited by commodities such as wheat, soybean, lean hogs and cocoa, imply that the futures markets help discover prices in the spot markets and that the markets are efficient. The causal relationship results suggest that information flow from futures markets to spot markets appears to have increased over the years. This apparent increase in information flows could be attributed to the increase in the relative importance of electronic trading of futures contracts in recent years, which results in more transparent and widely accessible prices. The results meet our three criteria of market efficiency and suggest that there is no need for changes in the existing regulations of the agricultural futures market.
Download or read book Recent food prices movements written by Bryce Cooke and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From 2006 to mid-2008 the international prices of agricultural commodities increased considerably, by a factor larger than two. This upward trend in agricultural prices captured the world's attention as a new food crisis was emerging. Several explanations for these movements in prices, ranging from demand-driven forces to supply shocks, have been provided by analysts, researchers, and development institutions. This paper is an attempt to empirically validate these explanations using time series econometrics and data at monthly frequency. We focus on the international price of corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans. First, we identify variables associated with the factors mentioned as causing the increase in these agricultural commodities prices. Second, we use time series analysis to try to quantitatively validate those explanations. The empirical work presented here includes first difference models and rolling Granger causality tests. Overall, our empirical analysis mainly provides evidence that financial activity in futures markets and proxies for speculation can help explain the observed change in food prices; any other explanation is not well supported by our time series analysis.
Download or read book Global Agricultural Supply and Demand written by Ronald Trostle and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: World market prices for major food commodities such as grains and vegetable oils have risen sharply to historic highs of more than 60% above levels just 2 years ago. Many factors have contributed to the runup in food commodity prices. Some factors reflect trends of slower growth in production and more rapid growth in demand that have contributed to a tightening of world balances of grains and oilseeds over the last decade. Other factors include increased global demand for biofuels feedstocks and adverse weather conditions in 2006 and 2007 in some major grain- and oilseed-producing areas. This report discusses these and other factors and illustrates how they have contributed to food commodity price increases. Tables and graphs.
Download or read book Food Price Policy in an Era of Market Instability written by Per Pinstrup-Andersen and published by Oxford University Press (UK). This book was released on 2015 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 2006, global food prices have fluctuated greatly around an increasing trend and price spikes were observed for key food commodities such as rice, wheat, and maize.
Download or read book Impact of Commodity Index Investments on Agricultural Commodity Price Increases Over 2006 2011 Period written by Velmurugan Palaniappan Shanmugam and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although prices in the agricultural commodity futures markets have risen significantly in recent years, the results of this study support those of many previous studies that concluded that investments of commodity index traders and speculators in the futures markets are not the major causes of the price increases. While the analyses in this study do not directly test for price impacts, the results of the ratio analyses, “T” indexes, and Granger Causality tests show that there is no “excess speculation” in the commodities futures markets. However, the ratio and speculative index results revealed a small level of abnormality only in CBOT wheat and CME feeder cattle markets. The Granger Causality tests revealed that index investments do not Granger cause futures prices in 9 out of the 12 commodities. Index investments Granger caused futures prices only in CBOT corn and CME feeder cattle markets. These results debunk the assertion that speculators are to be blamed for the recent increases in commodity prices and that their activities in the futures markets must be curbed. Indeed, the results of this study indicate the possibility that speculators and commodity index traders potentially play appropriate roles in the futures markets by providing liquidity needed for the smooth functioning of the markets.The results of the study imply that commodity index traders in agricultural commodities do not change futures markets primarily from hedging to “excessive” speculative markets. As a result, the potential causes of the recent price spikes in agricultural commodities may potentially be the results of market fundamentals. Consequently, recent proposed government policies and programs aimed at curbing speculation in the commodities and futures market may potentially be counterproductive in terms of needed liquidity in the markets to ensure stable price levels and market stability.
Download or read book Why Have Food Commodity Prices Risen Again written by Ronald Trostle and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Between early June 2010 and February 2011, prices of food commodities increased sharply, surpassing the 2008 peaks that had spread anxiety among policymakers and low-income consumers around the world. Most of the long-term trends in agricultural production and consumption that contributed to the 2002-06 price increases and the 2007-08 price spike also contributed to the recent price surge. This report describes the factors that have contributed to the large and rapid increase in agricultural prices during the past year. It focuses particularly on food commodity prices¿which have risen 60 percent since June 2010. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand edition of an important, hard-to-find publication.
Download or read book High Agricultural Commodity Prices written by Randall Dean Schnepf and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All major U.S. agricultural program crops -- corn, barley, sorghum, oats, wheat, rice, and soybeans -- have exhibited extreme price volatility since mid-2007, while rising to record or near-record levels in early 2008. Several international organisations have announced that the sharply rising commodity prices are likely to have dire consequences for the world's vulnerable populations, particularly in import-dependent, less developed nations. In the United States, high commodity prices have pushed farm income to successive annual records and have sharply lowered government farm program costs, but they have also stoked the flames of food price inflation and have raised costs for livestock producers and food processors. In addition, high, unexpectedly volatile prices have increased the risk and costs associated with grain merchandising. In particular, they have dramatically increased the cost of routine hedging activities (i.e., pricing commodities for purchase, delivery, or use at some future date) at commodity futures exchanges and, as a result, have diminished "forward contracting" opportunities for grain and oilseed producers who are eager to take advantage of record high market prices. For some crops (particularly for wheat and rice), the price increases are likely to be relatively short-term in nature and are due to weather-related crop shortfalls in major producer and consumer countries, a weak U.S. dollar that has helped spark large increases in U.S. exports, a bidding war among major U.S. crops for land in the months leading up to spring planting in 2008, and the often perverse price effects resulting from international policy responses by several major exporting and importing nations to protect their domestic markets. Assuming a return to normal weather, these factors will likely self-correct within two growing seasons as global supplies are replenished and prices moderate. For coarse grains (corn, sorghum, barley, oats, and rye), oilseeds, and oilseed products (e.g., vegetable oil and meal), the price increases have also been due to strong, sustained demand deriving from two sources: robust income growth in developing countries (e.g., China and India), which has contributed to increased demand for meat products and the feed grains needed to produce that meat; and growing agricultural feedstock demand to meet large increases in government biofuel-usage mandates or goals in the United States, the European Union, and other countries. Market analysts, including the United Nations' Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), are predicting record global grain and oilseed production in 2008 in response to the high market prices. However, given the overall strength in demand growth, most market analysts predict that when commodity supplies eventually recover and prices moderate from current high levels, the new equilibrium prices will be significantly higher than has traditionally been observed during periods of market balance. This book examines the causes, consequences, and outlook for prices of the major U.S. program crops
Download or read book Agricultural Product Prices written by William G. Tomek and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2014-05-08 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published continuously since 1972, Agricultural Product Prices has become the standard textbook and reference work for students in agricultural and applied economics, buyers and sellers of commodities, and policymakers, clearly explaining conceptual and empirical models applicable to agricultural product markets. The new fifth edition uses up-to-date information and models to explain the behavior of agricultural product prices. Topics include price differences over market levels (marketing margins), price differences over space (regionally and internationally) and by quality attributes, and price variability with the passage of time (seasonal and cyclical variations, trends, and random behavior). William G. Tomek and Harry M. Kaiser review and adapt microeconomic principles to the characteristics of agricultural commodity markets and then apply these principles to the various dimensions of price behavior. They also provide an in-depth discussion of prices established for futures contracts and their relationship to cash (spot) market prices; cover the influential roles of price discovery institutions, such as auctions and negotiated contracts, and government policies regulating trade and farms; and discuss the specification, use, and evaluation of empirical models of agricultural prices, placing emphasis on the challenges of doing high-quality, useful analyses and interpreting results.
Download or read book Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility written by Isabelle Piot-Lepetit and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-06-10 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.
Download or read book Excessive food price variability early warning system Incorporating exogenous covariates written by Geng, Xin and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-09-28 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System, maintained by IFPRI’s Food Security Portal, identifies periods of unusual or excessive price volatility (i.e. price variability that exceeds a pre-established, estimated threshold) for a wide set of major agricultural and food commodity markets. The Tool is based on nonparametric estimators for conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and conditional expected shortfall (CES) associated with conditional distributions of the modeled price returns series, developed by Martins-Filho et al. (2015, 2018). The estimations are performed on a day-to-day basis and intend to provide timely price variability alerts to policy makers, traders, and farmers worldwide. This note incorporates exogenous covariates into the Tool when modeling the stochastic behavior of commodity price returns. We focus on maize, wheat, and soybeans, which are key agricultural commodities, and add three exogenous variables when estimating the conditional mean and variance of their daily price returns. The exogeneous covariates include oil price returns, exchange rate percentage variations (US dollar depreciation rate), and Standard & Poor index (S&P500) returns, which are available on a daily frequency and are widely used when modeling dynamic price relationships in agricultural commodity markets (see, e.g., Deb et al., 1996; Ai et al., 2006; Gilbert, 2010; Natanelov, 2011; Gardebroek et al., 2016). The objective of the note is twofold. First, we assess whether the behavior of agricultural commodity prices can be associated with energy (input), macroeconomic, or financial factors by depicting the relationships between variations in specific exogenous covariates and agricultural price returns and volatility. Second, we evaluate whether incorporating these covariates can help improve the predictive performance of the Tool in terms of more accurately identifying periods of excessive volatility in agricultural markets, relative to a model without exogenous variables that only includes lagged own agricultural price returns as covariates. The period of analysis is January 1990 through December 2020.
Download or read book Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Farm Commodity Prices written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Agriculture and Forestry and published by . This book was released on 1937 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Policy Responses in Emerging Economies to International Agricultural Commodity Price Surges written by Darryl Jones and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Financialisation of Agricultural Commodity Futures Trading and Its Impact on the 2006 2008 Global Food Crisis written by Nicola Colbran and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The subject of this article is whether the financialisation of agricultural commodity futures trading contributed to the sudden price rises in 2006-2008. It also discusses the effect of financialisation on the functioning and usefulness of futures markets, and considers whether speculation could exacerbate price volatility again. The article is not intended to be an overly technical analysis of the topic and therefore does not include detailed economic analyses or econometric modelling. Rather, it seeks to provide an objective and straightforward discussion for those generally interested in agricultural commodity markets and their impact on food security and developing countries more generally.
Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Download or read book Maximum Prices of Agricultural Commodities and Their Products written by United States. Bureau of Agricultural Economics and published by . This book was released on 1943 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Demand and Price Situation written by and published by . This book was released on 1946 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
