Download or read book Aggregation of Gridded Emulated Rainfed Crop Yield Projections at the National Or Regional Level written by Elodie Blanc and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To estimate the impact of climate change on yields, researchers traditionally use process-based models or statistical models. To benefit from the capabilities of processed-based models while preserving the application simplicity of statistical models, Blanc and Sultan (2015) and Blanc (2017) provide an ensemble of statistical tools emulating crops yields from global gridded crop models at the grid cell level using a simple set of environmental variables. This paper and companion code provide a tool for researcher to use those statistical emulators and estimate crop yields of rainfed maize, rice, soybean and wheat at the regional level. Crop yields estimates for various regional delineations can then simply be used as input into a variety of numerical equilibrium models and other analyses. JEL codes: Q19, Q54. Keywords: Crop Yields; Crop Model; Statistical Model; Climate Change.
Download or read book Statistical Emulators of Maize Rice Soybean and Wheat Yields from Global Gridded Crop Models written by Elodie Blanc and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study provides statistical emulators of crop yields based on global gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Fast Track project. The ensemble of simulations is used to build a panel of annual crop yields from five crop models and corresponding monthly summer weather variables for over a century at the grid cell level globally. This dataset is then used to estimate, for each crop and gridded crop model, the statistical relationship between yields, temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide. This study considers a new functional form to better capture the non-linear response of yields to weather, especially for extreme temperature and precipitation events. In- and out-of-sample validations show that the statistical emulators are able to closely replicate crop yields projected by crop models and perform well out-of-sample. This study therefore provides a reliable and accessible alternative to global gridded crop yield models. By emulating crop yields for several models using parsimonious equations, the tools provide a computationally efficient method to account for uncertainty in climate change impact assessments.
Download or read book Global Change and the Challenges of Sustainably Feeding a Growing Planet written by Thomas W. Hertel and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-10-31 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the fundamental determinants of long term changes in agricultural land use and the associated implications for environmental and food security. The book is designed around the idea that each chapter focuses on one driver, or underlying determinant, of land use change at global scale. It starts with key factors which have been influential in the past, such as growth population, incomes and agricultural productivity, thereafter turning to new drivers such as biofuels, climate change and demand for environmental services. Specialized topics include food security outcomes, projections of future agricultural prices, greenhouse gas emissions, the role of globalization and market integration. The book draws heavily on the emerging body of literature on these topics, summarizes key findings and organizes these within a unifying economic framework.
Download or read book Climate change information for regional impact and risk assessment written by Benjamin Lamptey and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-06-06 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Turn Down the Heat written by A Report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Analytics. and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2013-06-19 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day, 2°C and 4°C warming on agricultural production, water resources, and coastal vulnerability. It finds many significant climate and development impacts are already being felt in some regions, and that as warming increases from present day (0.8°C) to 2°C and 4°C, multiple threats of increasing extreme heat waves, sea-level rise, more severe storms, droughts and floods are expected to have further severe negative implications for the poorest and most vulnerable. The report finds that agricultural yields will be affected across the three regions, with repercussions for food security, economic growth, and poverty reduction. In addition, urban areas have been identified as new clusters of vulnerability with urban dwellers, particularly the urban poor, facing significant vulnerability to climate change. In Sub-Saharan Africa, under 3°C global warming, savannas are projected to decrease from their current levels to approximately one-seventh of total land area and threaten pastoral livelihoods. Under 4°C warming, total hyper-arid and arid areas are projected to expand by 10 percent. In South East Asia, under 2°C warming, heat extremes that are virtually absent today would cover nearly 60-70 percent of total land area in northern-hemisphere summer, adversely impacting ecosystems. Under 4°C warming, rural populations would face mounting pressures from sea-level rise, increased tropical cyclone intensity, storm surges, saltwater intrusions, and loss of marine ecosystem services. In South Asia, the potential sudden onset of disturbances to the monsoon system and rising peak temperatures would put water and food resources at severe risk. Well before 2°C warming occurs, substantial reductions in the frequency of low snow years is projected to cause substantial reductions in dry season flow, threatening agriculture. Many of the worst climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming below 2°C, but the window for action is closing rapidly. Urgent action is also needed to build resilience to a rapidly warming world that will pose significant risks to agriculture, water resources, coastal infrastructure, and human health.
Download or read book Disaster Risk Science written by Peijun Shi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-06-04 with total page 753 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first English language book to systematically introduce basic theories, methods and applications of disaster risk science from the angle of different subjects including disaster science, emergency technology and risk management. Viewed from basic theories, disaster risk science consists of disaster system, formation mechanism and process, covering 3 chapters in this book. From the perspective of technical methods, disaster risk science includes measurement and assessment of disasters, mapping and zoning of disaster risk, covering 4 chapters in this book. From the angle of application practices, disaster risk science contains disaster management, emergency response and integrated disaster risk paradigm, covering 3 chapters in the book. The book can be a good reference for researchers, students, and practitioners in the field of disaster risk science and natural disaster risk management for more actively participating in and supporting the development of "disaster risk science".
Download or read book Climate Change Water and Food Security written by Hugh Turral and published by Fao. This book was released on 2011 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rural poor, who are the most vulnerable, are likely to be disproportionately affected.
Download or read book The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture written by Nicolas Ahouissoussi and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-05-06 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book illustrates the World Bank’s commitment to assist countries to respond to the opportunities and challenges posed by climate change. Undertaken in collaborative partnership with policy makers, farmers, civil society, and other stakeholders in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, it provides a much needed response to the call for action by quantifying the impact and identifying key priorities for policies, programs, and investments to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change in the South Caucasus. The study responds to the urgent need for climate adaptation, as highlighted in the World Bank’s “Turn Down the Heat” report. Notably, the South Caucasus is already contending with increasing aridity and more frequent extreme weather events (e.g. severe droughts, floods and hailstorms). It presents practical solutions for a more climate smart agriculture, at the regional, national and agro-ecological zone level in each country. The recommendations offered in this book are a compilation of the results of the three national studies, and highlight the need and potential for regional collaborative action to increase benefits, while also continuing to emphasize the need for an effective response at the national level. The national level results are supported by country reports, which provide more details. This work is but an important beginning. To achieve the goals of climate resilience in the agriculture sector, more work is needed to translate the proposals into reality. The analysis demonstrates that investments in irrigation infrastructure and on-farm technologies have great potential to raise agricultural productivity and improve the climate resilience of the sector. Demand-side agricultural water management will have high short-term payoffs, and these short-term payoffs are complementary to the success of long- term irrigation, drainage and other infrastructure investments. Strengthening the disaster risk management strategies (beyond agricultural measures) are also needed to help mitigate household risks from extreme events, especially for the poorest, who are the most vulnerable.
Download or read book Looking Ahead in World Food and Agriculture written by Piero Conforti and published by UN. This book was released on 2011 with total page 564 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several aspects of the perspectives for global agriculture are analysed and FAO's projections for the years to come are given. Macroeconomic indicators are explained and how these underpin the poverty levels in the 2050 horizon. Other areas explored are natural resources, notably land and water, as well as capital, investment and technology.
Download or read book Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Volume 1 written by Rohitashw Kumar and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-25 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conservation agriculture is a sustainable production model that not only optimizes crop yields, but also reaps economic and environmental benefits as well. The adoption of successful conservation agriculture methods has resulted in energy savings, higher organic matter content and biotic activity in soil, increased crop-water availability and thus resilience to drought, improved recharge of aquifers, less erosion, and reduced impacts from the weather associated with climate change in general. Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change examines several important aspects of crop production, such as climate change, soil management, farm machinery, and different methods for sustainable conservation agriculture. It presents spatial distribution of a daily, monthly and annual precipitation concentration indices, Diffuse Reflectance Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy for analyzing the organic matter in soil, and adaptation strategies for climate-related plant disease scenarios. It also discusses solar energy-based greenhouse modeling, precision farming using remote sensing and GIS, and various types of machinery used for conservation agriculture. Features: Examines the effects of climate change on agriculture and the related strategies for mitigation through practical, real-world examples Explores innovative on-farm technology options to increase system efficiency resulting in improved water usage Presents examples of precision farming using climate-resilient technologies
Download or read book Improving Modeling Tools to Assess Climate Change Effects on Crop Response written by Jerry L. Hatfield and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-01-22 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Crop model intercomparison and improvement are required to advance understanding of the impact of future climate change on crop growth and yield. The initial efforts undertaken in the Agriculture Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) led to several observations where crop models were not adequately simulating growth and development. These studies revealed where enhanced efforts should be undertaken in experimental data to quantify the carbon dioxide × temperature × water interactions in plant growth and yield. International leaders in this area held a symposium at the 2013 ASA, CSSA, and SSSA Annual Meeting to discuss this topic. This volume in the Advances in Agricultural Systems Modeling series presents experimental observations across crops and simulation modeling outcomes and addresses future challenges in improving crop simulation models. IN PRESS! This book is being published according to the “Just Published” model, with more chapters to be published online as they are completed.
Download or read book OECD FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019 2028 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2019-07-08 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well ...
Download or read book The Indus Basin of Pakistan written by Winston H. Yu and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2013 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study, Indus basin of Pakistan: the impacts of climate risks on water and agriculture was undertaken at a pivotal time in the region. The weak summer monsoon in 2009 created drought conditions throughout the country. This followed an already tenuous situation for many rural households faced with high fuel and fertilizer costs and the impacts of rising global food prices. Then catastrophic monsoon flooding in 2010 affected over 20 million people, devastating their housing, infrastructure, and crops. Damages from this single flood event were estimated at US dollar 10 billion, half of which were losses in the agriculture sector. Notwithstanding the debate as to whether these observed extremes are evidence of climate change, an investigation is needed regarding the extent to which the country is resilient to these shocks. It is thus timely, if not critical, to focus on climate risks for water, agriculture, and food security in the Indus basin of Pakistan.
Download or read book Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems written by Daniel Hillel and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The portending process of climate change, induced by the anthropogenic accumulations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is likely to generate effects that will cascade through the biosphere, impacting all life on earth and bearing upon human endeavors. Of special concern is the potential effect on agriculture and global food security. Anticipating these effects demands that scientists widen their field of vision and cooperate across disciplines to encompass increasingly complex interactions. Trans-disciplinary cooperation should aim to generate effective responses to the portending changes, including actions to mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gases and to adapt to those climate changes that cannot be avoided. This handbook presents an exposition of current research on the impacts, adaptation, and mitigation of climate change in relation to agroecosystems. It is offered as the first volume in what is intended to be an ongoing series dedicated to elucidating the interactions of climate change with a broad range of sectors and systems, and to developing and spurring effective responses to this global challenge. As the collective scientific and practical knowledge of the processes and responses involved continues to grow, future volumes in the series will address important aspects of the topic periodically over the coming years.
Download or read book SMALL SCALE FAMILY FARMING IN THE NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2018-08-09 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report provides an overview of a study conducted in the NENA region in 2015-2016 in partnership with FAO, CIRAD, CIHEAM-IAMM and six national teams, each of which prepared a national report. In the six countries under review in the NENA region (Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Mauritania, Sudan and Tunisia), agriculture is carried out primarily by small-scale family farmers, the majority of whom run the risk of falling into the poverty trap, largely due to the continuous fragmentation of inherited landholdings. As such, the development of small-scale family farming can no longer be based solely on intensifying agriculture, as the farmers are not able to produce sufficient marketable surplus due to the limited size of their landholdings. An approach based strictly on agricultural activity is also insufficient (as small-scale family farms have already diversified their livelihoods with off-farm activities). In fact, developing small-scale farming cannot be achieved by focusing strictly on t he dimension of production.
Download or read book Mountain agriculture Opportunities for harnessing Zero Hunger in Asia written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2019-08-07 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mountain food security and nutrition are core issues that can contribute positively to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals but paradoxically are often ignored in Zero Hunger and poverty reduction-related agenda. Under the overall leadership of José Graziano da Silva, the Former Director-General of FAO, sustainable mountain agriculture development is set as a priority in Asia and the Pacific, to effectively address this issue and assist Member Countries in tackling food insecurity and malnutrition in mountain regions. This comprehensive publication is the first of its kind that focuses on the multidimensional status, challenges, opportunities and solutions of sustainable mountain agriculture development for Zero Hunger in Asia. This publication is building on the ‘International Workshop and Regional Expert Consultation on Mountain Agriculture Development and Food Security and Nutrition Governance’, held by FAO RAP and UIR in November 2018 Beijing, in collaboration with partners from national governments, national agriculture institutes, universities, international organizations and international research institutes. The publication provides analysis with evidence on how mountain agriculture could contribute to satisfying all four dimensions of food security, to transform food systems to be nutrition-sensitive, climate-resilient, economically-viable and locally adaptable. From this food system perspective, the priority should be given to focus on specialty mountain product identification (e.g. Future Smart Food), production, processing, marketing and consumption, which would effectively expose the potential of mountain agriculture to contribute to Zero Hunger and poverty reduction. In addition, eight Asian country case studies not only identify context-specific challenges within biophysical-technical, policy, socio-economic and institutional dimensions.
