Download or read book Adjusting to Policy Expectations in Climate Change Modeling written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper surveys and interprets the attitudes of scientists to the use of flux adjustments in climate projections with coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models. The survey is based largely on the responses of 19 climate modellers to several questions and a discussion document circulated in 1995. We interpret the responses in terms of the following factors: the implicit assumptions which scientists hold about how the environmental policy process deals with scientific uncertainty over human-related global warming; the different scientific styles that exist in climate research; and the influence of organisations, institutions, and policy upon research agendas. We find evidence that scientists' perceptions of the policy process do play a role in shaping their scientific practices. In particular, many of our respondents expressed a preference for keeping discussion of the issue of flux adjustments within the climate modeling community, apparently fearing that climate contrarians would exploit the issue in the public domain. While this may be true, we point to the risk that such an approach may backfire. We also identify assumptions and cultural commitments lying at a deeper level which play at least as important a role as perceptions of the policy process in shaping scientific practices. This leads us to identify two groups of scientists, 'pragmatists' and 'purists, ' who have different implicit standards for model adequacy, and correspondingly are or are not willing to use flux adjustments.

Download or read book Climate Change and Policy written by Gabriele Gramelsberger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-03-30 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the ‘nature’ of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today’s attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the 'nature' of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today's attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? Gabriele Gramelsberger is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project

Download or read book Optimal Control of a Global Model of Climate Change with Adaptation and Mitigation written by Manoj Atolia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) has extensively treated the adverse effects of climate change and the appropriate mitigation policy. We extend such a model to include optimal policies for mitigation, adaptation and infrastructure investment studying the dynamics of the transition to a low fossil-fuel economy. We focus on the adverse effects of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration on households. Formally, the model gives rise to an optimal control problem of finite horizon consisting of a dynamic system with five-dimensional state vector consisting of stocks of private capital, green capital, public capital, stock of brown energy in the ground, and emissions. Given the numerous challenges to climate change policies the control vector is also five-dimensional. Our solutions are characterized by turnpike property and the optimal policy that accomplishes the objective of keeping the CO2 levels within bound is characterized by a significant proportion of investment in public capital going to mitigation in the initial periods. When initial levels of CO2 are high, adaptation efforts also start immediately, but during the initial period, they account for a smaller proportion of government's public investment.

Download or read book New Directions in Climate Change Vulnerability Impacts and Adaptation Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-03-17 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With effective climate change mitigation policies still under development, and with even the most aggressive proposals unable to halt climate change immediately, many decision makers are focusing unprecedented attention on the need for strategies to adapt to climate changes that are now unavoidable. The effects of climate change will touch every corner of the world's economies and societies; adaptation is inevitable. The remaining question is to what extent humans will anticipate and reduce undesired consequences of climate change, or postpone response until after climate change impacts have altered ecological and socioeconomic systems so significantly that opportunities for adaptation become limited. This book summarizes a National Research Council workshop at which presentations and discussion identified specific needs associated with this gap between the demand and supply of scientific information about climate change adaptation.

Download or read book Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change written by Ian Burton and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-11-15 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities and countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change. The process of adaptation is not new; the idea of incorporating future climate risk into policy-making is. While our understanding of climate change and its potential impacts has become clearer, the availability of practical guidance on adaptation has not kept pace. The development of the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) is intended to help provide the rapidly evolving process of adaptation policy-making with a much-needed roadmap. Ultimately, the purpose of the APF is to support adaptation processes to protect - and enhance - human well-being in the face of climate change. This volume will be invaluable for everyone working on climate change adaptation and policy-making.

Download or read book Modeling Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Policies to Predict Their Effectiveness written by Alexandre Marcellesi and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Compendium of Adaptation Models for Climate Change written by Thea Dickinson and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Climate Change Modeling Mitigation and Adaptation written by Rao Y. Surampalli and published by Amer Society of Civil Engineers. This book was released on 2013 with total page 708 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title contains 25 invited chapters that present the most current thinking on the environmental mechanisms contributing to global climate change and explore scientifically grounded steps to reduce the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Download or read book America s Climate Choices written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-06-11 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is occurring. It is very likely caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human activities, and poses significant risks for a range of human and natural systems. And these emissions continue to increase, which will result in further change and greater risks. America's Climate Choices makes the case that the environmental, economic, and humanitarian risks posed by climate change indicate a pressing need for substantial action now to limit the magnitude of climate change and to prepare for adapting to its impacts. Although there is some uncertainty about future risk, acting now will reduce the risks posed by climate change and the pressure to make larger, more rapid, and potentially more expensive reductions later. Most actions taken to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts are common sense investments that will offer protection against natural climate variations and extreme events. In addition, crucial investment decisions made now about equipment and infrastructure can "lock in" commitments to greenhouse gas emissions for decades to come. Finally, while it may be possible to scale back or reverse many responses to climate change, it is difficult or impossible to "undo" climate change, once manifested. Current efforts of local, state, and private-sector actors are important, but not likely to yield progress comparable to what could be achieved with the addition of strong federal policies that establish coherent national goals and incentives, and that promote strong U.S. engagement in international-level response efforts. The inherent complexities and uncertainties of climate change are best met by applying an iterative risk management framework and making efforts to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions; prepare for adapting to impacts; invest in scientific research, technology development, and information systems; and facilitate engagement between scientific and technical experts and the many types of stakeholders making America's climate choices.

Download or read book A Critical Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change written by Mike Hulme and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-12-31 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has become a hugely influential institution. It is the authoritative voice on the science on climate change, and an exemplar of an intergovernmental science-policy interface. This book introduces the IPCC as an institution, covering its origins, history, processes, participants, products, and influence. Discussing its internal workings and operating principles, it shows how IPCC assessments are produced and how consensus is reached between scientific and policy experts from different institutions, countries, and social groups. A variety of practices and discourses - epistemic, diplomatic, procedural, communicative - that make the institution function are critically assessed, allowing the reader to learn from its successes and failures. This volume is the go-to reference for researchers studying or active within the IPCC, as well as invaluable for students concerned with global environmental problems and climate governance. This title is also available as Open Access via Cambridge Core.

Download or read book Modeling Climate Change Impacts at the Science policy Boundary written by Marisa Beck and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is a daunting policy challenge, where decision-makers must respond to a high-uncertainty and high-risk problem in an environment with a diverse multitude of stakeholders and unresolved ethical questions. For the past 25 years, integrated assessment models (IAMs) of global climate change have become standard tools for informing climate policy. IAMs are computer models that combine representations of biophysical systems and socioeconomic systems; they are used to simulate the causes, dynamics, and impacts of climate change. While IAMs are typically developed by scientists, their explicit purpose is to generate policy-relevant information. In this paper-based dissertation, I use a pragmatic model of science-policy relations as a theoretical and normative framework to examine the production and application of IAMs. My research contributes conceptually and empirically to the existing scholarship on the role of scientific models in policymaking. Together, the three articles included in this dissertation advance our understanding of the various inputs and outputs of policy-relevant scientific models, using climate change IAMs as a case study. In Article #1, my co-author and I investigate the sources and consequences of the numerous difficult modeling choices that IAM developers are required to make as a result of the pervasive uncertainty-both scientific and ethical-surrounding this topic. We argue that these choices are made in particular epistemic, ethical, and social contexts. Correspondingly, we illuminate the epistemic, ethical, and political consequences of these choices. Finally, adopting a co-productionist approach, we suggest that past modeling choices may constrain future model development by setting epistemic benchmarks, establishing ethical norms, and creating biases in academic publishing and policy application. We review and build on findings from various literatures to unpack the complex intersection of science, ethics, and politics that IAMs occupy. This leads us to suggest avenues for future empirical and theoretical research that may enable an integrated epistemic-ethical-political understanding of IAMs. Such transparency is necessary to judge the usefulness of IAMs in supporting climate change policymaking that is scientifically sound, ethically fair, and politically acceptable. Articles #2 and #3 extrapolate practical consequences from the conceptual groundwork established in Article #1. In Article #2, I apply a narrative research approach to examine how values and beliefs embedded in modeling choices may influence policy. I draw on research on the role of storytelling in scientific modeling, as well as a growing literature in policy studies investigating the influence of stories on policy outcomes. These two streams of research have yet to be connected in an investigation of how scientific models, in addition to delivering numerical results, also influence policy through the stories that are told with them. In this paper, I present a framework for analyzing the composition and content of policy-relevant stories produced with scientific models. I argue that an appreciation of these modeled stories is essential for a full understanding how models are used in policymaking-whether they are models of climate change, public health, or the economy. For illustration, I apply the framework to the analysis of stories produced with the DICE model, arguably the most prominent IAM of global climate change. In Article #3, I provide a normative, empirically grounded analysis of two of the major critiques of IAMs: that they are a) arbitrary and b) value-laden, and therefore unfit for policy use. Interviews and participant observations with IAM developers reveal that, indeed, many factors other than scientific theory and empirical observations influence modeling choices. The modelers also recognize that some of their choices in the modeling process do have a partially normative character. So, do these findings validate the above critiques and disqualify IAMs from policy use? Not necessarily. Current work in philosophy of science demonstrates the need for a more nuanced approach to this question, revealing that the ideal of objectively true and value-free models is unattainable-indeed, in some aspects, perhaps even undesirable. Instead, models should be evaluated with respect to their `fit for purpose.' Uncertain and value-laden assumptions should be addressed with transparency and conditionality. Adopting such a pragmatist perspective on IAMs, this paper concludes that IAMs are a useful, albeit imperfect, tool for assessing climate policy. Practical recommendations for how to enhance the usefulness of IAMs for policy are provided.

Download or read book Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation A Review of the Literature written by Signe Krogstrup and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-04 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role of macroeconomic and financial policy tools in enabling this transition. The literature provides a menu of policy tools for mitigation. A key conclusion is that fiscal tools are first in line and central, but can and may need to be complemented by financial and monetary policy instruments. Some tools and policies raise unanswered questions about policy tool assignment and mandates, which we describe. The literature is scarce, however, on the most effective policy mix and the role of mitigation tools and goals in the overall policy framework.

Download or read book Problems Philosophy and Politics of Climate Science written by Guido Visconti and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-09-17 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a critical appraisal of the status of the so-called Climate Sciences (CS). These are contributed by many other basic sciences like physics, geology, chemistry and as such employ theoretical and experimental methods. In the last few decades most of the CS have been identified with the global warming problem and numerical models have been used as the main tool for their investigations. The produced predictions can only be partially tested against experimental data and may represent one of the reasons CS are drifting away from the route of the scientific method. On the other hand the study of climate faces many other interesting and mostly unsolved problems (think about ice ages) whose solution could clarify how the climatic system works. As for the global warming, while its existence is largely proved, scientifically it can be solved only with a large experimental effort carried out for a few decades. Problems can arise when not proved hypotheses are adopted as the basis for public policy without the recognition that they may be on shaky ground. The strong interactions of the Global Warming (GW) with the society create another huge problem of political nature for the CS. The book argues that the knowledge gained so far on the specific GW problem is enough for the relevant political decisions to be taken and that Climate Science should resume the study of the climate system with appropriate means and methods. The book introduces the most relevant concepts needed for the discussion in the text or in appropriate appendices and it is directed to the general public with upper undergraduate background. Each chapter closes with a debate between a climate scientist and a humanist to reflect the discussions between climate science and philosophy or climate scientists and society.

Download or read book Modeling Uncertain Climate Impacts and Adaptation for the Integrated Assessment of Carbon Policy written by Delavane Byars Diaz and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Carbon mitigation policies should be designed to balance the costs of reducing emissions and the benefits of avoided climate change. However, both costs and benefits are challenging to characterize because of pervasive uncertainty and complex inter actions among important physical, natural, and human systems. This dissertation reviews, assesses, and seeks to improve the representation of the benefits in the cost benefit oriented integrated assessment models (IAMs) used for global assessment and climate policy analysis. One prominent measure of these benefits is the social cost of carbon (SCC), a monetary estimate of the climate change damages to society from an additional emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). The opening dissertation research project presents the first in-depth model diagnostic and inter-comparison examination of the three IAMs used to quantify the US Government SCC -- DICE, FUND, and PAGE -- to reveal how each model uniquely determines damages from climate change. This study's diagnostic analysis improves public understanding of the SCC, informs future SCC estimation, and identifies research priorities for climate impacts modeling that will be addressed in the remainder of the dissertation. The subsequent studies focus on climate impacts of sea level rise (SLR). The second dissertation project presents a new model to inform global estimates of coastal impacts, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). CIAM improves the credibility of coastal impact estimates along many analytical and empirical dimensions: geographical scope, spatial resolution, temporal dynamics, and the inclusion of optimal local adaptation, uncertain flooding from storm surge extremes, wetland loss, and the effects of relative SLR. While the CIAM approach informs incremental climate change damage estimates, these are not the only factor in carbon mitigation policy design. Another important consideration is the risk of uncertain and potentially irreversible catastrophes, which have not yet been well incorporated into IAMs. The final project of this dissertation presents a multistage stochastic programming framework for modeling climate catastrophes with endogenous uncertainty, applied to a benchmark IAM. The specific catastrophe considered is the uncertain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), characterized in accordance with recent expert elicitations, empirical results, physical relationships, and economic consequences, as represented with the both the DICE and CIAM coastal damage functions. The stochastic DICE-WAIS model introduced here investigates the optimal policy response to the ice sheet collapse threat.

Download or read book The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics written by Alain Haurie and published by Springer. This book was released on 2009-09-03 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews the different approaches used to model the dynamic interactions between climate and economies, and proposes new avenues of research. Its fourteen chapters deal with various aspects of the building of integrated assessment models, either by coupling economic growth and climate change modules, or using mathematical models of viability or dynamic game theory to represent the interactions between the world regions concerned.

Download or read book Flexibility in Engineering Design written by Richard De Neufville and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2011-08-12 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to using the power of design flexibility to improve the performance of complex technological projects, for designers, managers, users, and analysts. Project teams can improve results by recognizing that the future is inevitably uncertain and that by creating flexible designs they can adapt to eventualities. This approach enables them to take advantage of new opportunities and avoid harmful losses. Designers of complex, long-lasting projects—such as communication networks, power plants, or hospitals—must learn to abandon fixed specifications and narrow forecasts. They need to avoid the “flaw of averages,” the conceptual pitfall that traps so many designs in underperformance. Failure to allow for changing circumstances risks leaving significant value untapped. This book is a guide for creating and implementing value-enhancing flexibility in design. It will be an essential resource for all participants in the development and operation of technological systems: designers, managers, financial analysts, investors, regulators, and academics. The book provides a high-level overview of why flexibility in design is needed to deliver significantly increased value. It describes in detail methods to identify, select, and implement useful flexibility. The book is unique in that it explicitly recognizes that future outcomes are uncertain. It thus presents forecasting, analysis, and evaluation tools especially suited to this reality. Appendixes provide expanded explanations of concepts and analytic tools.

Download or read book Climate Modelling written by Elisabeth A. Lloyd and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-13 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited collection of works by leading climate scientists and philosophers introduces readers to issues in the foundations, evaluation, confirmation, and application of climate models. It engages with important topics directly affecting public policy, including the role of doubt, the use of satellite data, and the robustness of models. Climate Modelling provides an early and significant contribution to the burgeoning Philosophy of Climate Science field that will help to shape our understanding of these topics in both philosophy and the wider scientific context. It offers insight into the reasons we should believe what climate models say about the world but addresses the issues that inform how reliable and well-confirmed these models are. This book will be of interest to students of climate science, philosophy of science, and of particular relevance to policy makers who depend on the models that forecast future states of the climate and ocean in order to make public policy decisions.