Download or read book Adapting to the Uncertain Nature of Future Conflict written by Joseph P. Kuchan and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is not known against whom or where the United States Army will fight next, nor is it clear what the nature of that conflict will be. What is relatively certain is that the United States Army will likely initially get it wrong, regardless of its level of preparation. In order to prevail, it will have to adapt. The Army is currently focused on winning its two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But these two wars will not last forever and other potential antagonists loom on the horizon. The Army must balance its mandate to win the current wars with its responsibility to prepare for and win unknown future conflicts. The Army must be prepared to fight a war for which it has not previously prepared. This monograph will analyze how two foreign armies prepared for the uncertain nature of their future conflicts. The first case study analyzes the British Army following World War II (1945-1960), when the British, who prepared to fight the Soviets in major combat operations in Europe, instead fought numerous counterinsurgency campaigns, including Malaya. The British Army, in spite of its extensive recent combat experience in World War II, and partially because of it, initially performed poorly; but over time correctly came to understand the nature of the conflict, adapted, and defeated the insurgency. The second case study examines the Israeli Army (2000-2006) following its 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon when it prepared to fight a counterinsurgency but instead fought a 'hybrid war' of mixed major combat operations and counterinsurgency in Lebanon in 2006. The Israeli Army, in spite of its recent counterinsurgency experience (and perhaps partially because of it) fared poorly; it did not fully understand the nature of the conflict in which it fought and took too long to adapt to its new realities. The overarching conclusion is that the United States Army must be able and willing to adapt to whatever conflict it finds itself in. Leadership is critical to adaptation.
Download or read book Understanding Adaptability written by C. Shawn Burke and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2006-02-06 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aims to increase our understanding of adaptability within complex environments by integrating the work done by experts in the field. This book also presents work on the importance of cultural adaptability, visualization requirements, measurement approaches, training strategies, and selection for adaptive performance.
Download or read book The Nature of Future Conflict written by Brian Bond and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Climate Adaptation Futures written by Jean P. Palutikof and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-02-04 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adaptation is the poor cousin of the climate change challenge - the glamour of international debate is around global mitigation agreements, while the bottom-up activities of adaptation, carried out in community halls and local government offices, are often overlooked. Yet, as international forums fail to deliver reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the world is realising that effective adaptation will be essential across all sectors to deal with the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The need to understand how to adapt effectively, and to develop appropriate adaptation options and actions, is becoming increasingly urgent. This book reports the current state of knowledge on climate change adaptation, and seeks to expose and debate key issues in adaptation research and practice. It is framed around a number of critical areas of adaptation theory and practice, including: Advances in adaptation thinking, Enabling frameworks and policy for adaptation, Engaging and communicating with practitioners, Key challenges in adaptation and development, Management of natural systems and agriculture under climate change, Ensuring water security under a changing climate, Urban infrastructure and livelihoods, and The nexus between extremes, disaster management and adaptation. It includes contributions from many of the leading thinkers and practitioners in adaptation today. The book is based on key contributions from the First International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation ‘Climate Adaptation Futures’, held on the Gold Coast, Australia, in June 2010. That three-day meeting of over 1000 researchers and practitioners in adaptation from 50 countries was the first of its kind. Readership: The book is essential reading for a wide range of individuals involved in climate change adaptation, including: Researchers, Communication specialists, Decision-makers and policy makers (e.g. government staff, local council staff), On-ground adaptation practitioners (e.g. aid agencies, government workers, NGOs), Postgraduate and graduate students, and Consultants.
Download or read book A Methodology for Developing Army Acquisition Strategies for an Uncertain Future written by John E. Peters and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph addresses the following two specific questions: What should a robust acquisition investment strategy look like-one designed to perform well against all anticipated threats? How should the Army acquisition community assess the appropriateness of its investment strategy over time? The study proposes adaptation of a RAND tool called Assumption-Based Planning to help Army personnel maintain proper alignment between strategic guidance and the Army acquisition program and budget. It uses this tool to create a model that recommends acquisition investments across a broad range of capabilities. The model works toward the goal of satisfying the complex and evolving requirements specified in the national security guidance. The model applies five main steps, by identifying (1) the assumptions that underlie Army acquisition policy; (2) load-bearing assumptions, i.e., important assumptions that underpin and shape Army acquisition plans; (3) signposts or indicators that an assumption is becoming vulnerable; (4) shaping actions that can be taken to keep assumptions viable, and (5) hedging actions that can be taken to prepare for unwelcome but unpreventable developments. For the acquisitions community, shaping and hedging actions both take the form of investments.
Download or read book Adaptation under Fire written by Lt. General David Barno and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020-08-17 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A critical look into how and why the U.S. military needs to become more adaptable. Every military must prepare for future wars despite not really knowing the shape such wars will ultimately take. As former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates once noted: "We have a perfect record in predicting the next war. We have never once gotten it right." In the face of such great uncertainty, militaries must be able to adapt rapidly in order to win. Adaptation under Fire identifies the characteristics that make militaries more adaptable, illustrated through historical examples and the recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Authors David Barno and Nora Bensahel argue that militaries facing unknown future conflicts must nevertheless make choices about the type of doctrine that their units will use, the weapons and equipment they will purchase, and the kind of leaders they will select and develop to guide the force to victory. Yet after a war begins, many of these choices will prove flawed in the unpredictable crucible of the battlefield. For a U.S. military facing diverse global threats, its ability to adapt quickly and effectively to those unforeseen circumstances may spell the difference between victory and defeat. Barno and Bensahel start by providing a framework for understanding adaptation and include historical cases of success and failure. Next, they examine U.S. military adaptation during the nation's recent wars, and explain why certain forms of adaptation have proven problematic. In the final section, Barno and Bensahel conclude that the U.S. military must become much more adaptable in order to address the fast-changing security challenges of the future, and they offer recommendations on how to do so before it is too late.
Download or read book Adapting Understanding the Future of War written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In late December last year the Army published the Army Capstone Concept. The concept is subtitled "Operational Adaptability: Operating under conditions of Uncertainty and Complexity in an Era of Persistent Conflict." The new concept is a guide to how the Army will apply available, yet dwindling, resources to overcome adaptive enemies, while concurrently articulating how to think about future armed conflict. This concept will serve as the foundation to drive development and modernization efforts. It provides the common framework for thinking about the conduct of future joint land operations under the conditions of uncertainty and complexity. The Army Capstone Concept helps place modernization decisions within the context of future armed conflict and establishes the conceptual foundation of our DOTMLPF (doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leader development, personnel and facilities) requirements and development. The Capstone Concept, while not specifically calling out this growing vulnerability of space-based capabilities, must be able to fight degraded which includes space-based capabilities as well as degraded communications and command and control networks. The new concept, rather than constraining space operations, provides U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command and Space Operation Officers a new opportunity and foundation challenging us to further emphasize, provide, and develop space-based capabilities within the Army. Operational adaptability is dependent upon space.
Download or read book Mobilizing in Uncertainty written by Anastasia Shesterinina and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2021-03-15 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do ordinary people navigate the intense uncertainty of the onset of war? Different individuals mobilize in different ways—some flee, some pick up arms, and some support armed actors as civil war begins. Drawing on nearly two hundred in-depth interviews with participants and nonparticipants in the Georgian-Abkhaz war of 1992–1993, Anastasia Shesterinina explores Abkhaz mobilization decisions during that conflict. Her fresh approach underscores the uncertain nature of the first days of the war when Georgian forces had a preponderance of manpower and arms. Mobilizing in Uncertainty demonstrates, in contrast to explanations that assume individuals know the risk involved in mobilization and make decisions based on that knowledge, that the Abkhaz anticipated risk in ways that were affected by their earlier experiences and by social networks at the time of mobilization. What Shesterinina uncovers is that to make sense of the violence, Abkhaz leaders, local authority figures, and others relied on shared understandings of the conflict and their roles in it—collective conflict identities—that they had developed before the war. As appeals traveled across society, people consolidated mobilization decisions within small groups of family and friends and based their actions on whom they understood to be threatened. Their decisions shaped how the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict unfolded and how people continued to mobilize during and after the war. Through this detailed analysis of Abkhaz mobilization from prewar to postwar, Mobilizing in Uncertainty sheds light on broader processes of violence, which have lasting effects on societies marked by intergroup conflict.
Download or read book Defence Planning and Uncertainty written by Stephan Frühling and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-04-24 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can countries decide what kind of military forces they need, if threats are uncertain and history is full of strategic surprises? This is a question that is more pertinent than ever, as countries across the Asia-Pacific are faced with the military and economic rise of China. Uncertainty is inherent in defence planning, but different types of uncertainty mean that countries need to approach decisions about military force structure in different ways. This book examines four different basic frameworks for defence planning, and demonstrates how states can make decisions coherently about the structure and posture of their defence forces despite strategic uncertainty. It draws on case studies from the United States, Australian and New Zealand, each of which developed key concepts for their particular circumstances and risk perception in Asia. Success as well as failure in developing coherent defence planning frameworks holds lessons for the United States and other countries as they consider how best to structure their military forces for the uncertain challenges of the future.
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Download or read book BLM Authorization written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Natural Resources. Subcommittee on National Parks, Forests, and Public Lands and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Past Imperfect Future UNcertain written by Ramesh Thakur and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-27 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The end of the Cold War and the forceful response to Iraq's aggression created expectations that the UN would change from a marginal into a centre player in world affairs. These hopes were seemingly dashed in Somalia, Rwanda and Bosnia. Has the United Nations abdicated its moral duty as the custodian of our hopes for a better world? In this book, foreign ministers, generals, ambassadors, and scholars provide sober assessments of how the United Nations can meet the challenge of a balance between the desirable and the possible.
Download or read book Working Through Conflict written by Joseph P. Folger and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2024-10-01 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Encompassing theory, research, and practice, this tenth edition provides an introduction to conflict communication and conflict management. This text features real-life case studies across a range of theoretical perspectives and conflict settings, including interpersonal, group, and organizational. Approachably written for students and with an eye to application, the book teaches conflict theory in the context of practical skills. This edition features new sections and references on recognizing intractable conflict and managing online conflict, a new exhibit on conflict escalation, and a new section on interpersonal goals, as well as an updated list of powerful ways to resolve and manage conflict. This textbook is ideally suited to undergraduate or graduate courses on conflict communication within communication studies, business and management, political science, and counseling programs. An Instructor’s Manual, including a sample syllabus, written and oral assignments, cases, exercises, video and online resources, sections from previous editions, and test questions is available at www.routledge.com/9781032489186.
Download or read book Action in Uncertainty written by Jean-Charles Pomerol and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2023-07-31 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite uncertainty, people are born to act. Faced with environmental aggression and upheaval, inaction is more stressful than action. What choices, strategies or methods need to be implemented so that action is as effective as possible in terms of the objectives to be achieved? We should not delude ourselves about the term "good decision", which does not have much meaning when we act in an uncertain environment and when we know the weakness of forecasts. However, we must know how to act and be capable of taking the most appropriate action. Action in Uncertainty is a real guide to taking effective action when nothing is certain. According to the different types of uncertainty, what are the respective good uses of expertise and intuition? How do we motivate teams and avoid cognitive bias and manipulation? These themes are dealt with in clear and accessible terms to help decision-makers make the right choices in a world that is more uncertain than ever.
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Download or read book Environmental Flows in an Uncertain Future written by Avril C. Horne and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-12-05 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Preparing for an Uncertain Climate written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 1993 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
