Download or read book A System Dynamics Based Integrated Assessment Modelling of Global regional Climate Change written by Mohammad Khaled Akhtar and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI (version 2) represents the societybiosphere- climate-economy-energy system of the earth and biosphere. The development of the ANEMI model version 2 is based on the system dynamics simulation approach that (a) allows for the understanding and modelling of complex global change and (b) assists in the investigation of possible policy options for mitigating, and/or adapting to changing global conditions within an integrated assessment modelling framework. This thesis presents the ANEMI model version 2 and its nine individual sectors: climate, carbon cycle, land-use, population, food production, hydrologic cycle, water demand, water quality, and energyeconomy. Two levels of the model are developed and presented here. The first one represents the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system on a global scale (ANEMI version 2). The second one is developed for a regional presentation of Canada (ANEMI_CDN). The development of the Canada model is based on the top-down approach and various disaggregation techniques. The disaggregation technique also extends the capability of the ANEMI model version 2 in generating monthly data, while the model runs with yearly time step. To evaluate market and nonmarket costs and benefits of climate change, the ANEMI model integrates an economic approach, with a focus on the international energy stock and fuel price, with climate interrelations and temperature change. The model takes into account all major greenhouse gases (GHG) influencing global temperature and sea-level variation. Several of the model sectors are built from the basic structure of the previous version of the ANEMI model (version 1.2) developed by Davies (2009) and reported by Davies and Simonovic (2010; 2011). However, they are integrated in a novel way, particularly the water sectors. The integration of optimization within the simulation framework of the ANEMI model version 2 is timely, as recognition grows of the importance of energy-based economic activities in determining long-term Earth-system behaviour. Experimentation with different policy scenarios demonstrates the consequences of these activities on future behaviour of the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system through feedback based interactions. The use of the model ANEMI version 2 and ANEMI_CDN improves both scientific understanding and socio-economic policy development strategy. This thesis describes the model structure in detail and illustrates its use through the analysis of three policy scenarios in both global and Canadian perspectives.
Download or read book Climate System Dynamics and Modelling written by Hugues Goosse and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-08-10 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook presents all aspects of climate system dynamics, on all timescales from the Earth's formation to modern human-induced climate change. It discusses the dominant feedbacks and interactions between all the components of the climate system: atmosphere, ocean, land surface and ice sheets. It addresses one of the key challenges for a course on the climate system: students can come from a range of backgrounds. A glossary of key terms is provided for students with little background in the climate sciences, whilst instructors and students with more expertise will appreciate the book's modular nature. Exercises are provided at the end of each chapter for readers to test their understanding. This textbook will be invaluable for any course on climate system dynamics and modeling, and will also be useful for scientists and professionals from other disciplines who want a clear introduction to the topic.
Download or read book Assessment of Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-03-26 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The social cost of carbon (SCC) for a given year is an estimate, in dollars, of the present discounted value of the damage caused by a 1-metric ton increase in CO2 emissions into the atmosphere in that year; or equivalently, the benefits of reducing CO2 emissions by the same amount in that given year. The SCC is intended to provide a comprehensive measure of the monetized value of the net damages from global climate change from an additional unit of CO2, including, but not limited to, changes in net agricultural productivity, energy use, human health effects, and property damages from increased flood risk. Federal agencies use the SCC to value the CO2 emissions impacts of various policies including emission and fuel economy standards for vehicles, regulations of industrial air pollutants from industrial manufacturing, emission standards for power plants and solid waste incineration, and appliance energy efficiency standards. There are significant challenges to estimating a dollar value that reflects all the physical, human, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change. Recognizing that the models and scientific data underlying the SCC estimates evolve and improve over time, the federal government made a commitment to provide regular updates to the estimates. To assist with future revisions of the SCC, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (IWG) requested the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine complete a study that assessed the merits and challenges of a limited near-term update to the SCC and of a comprehensive update of the SCC to ensure that the estimates reflect the best available science. This interim report focuses on near-term updates to the SCC estimates.
Download or read book The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics written by Alain Haurie and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-07-05 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews the different approaches used to model the dynamic interactions between climate and economies, and proposes new avenues of research. Its fourteen chapters deal with various aspects of the building of integrated assessment models, either by coupling economic growth and climate change modules, or using mathematical models of viability or dynamic game theory to represent the interactions between the world regions concerned.
Download or read book Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change Economics written by Zheng Wang and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-10 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the principles of integrated assessment models (IAM) for climate change economics and introduces various computable models for different development mechanisms under climate change governance. The authors present several new models they have constructed based on the RICE framework, specifically the MRICES((multi-factor RICE)) and EMRICES models, which incorporate global economic interactions into the RICE framework, and the CINCIA model, which describes technological advances and industrial structure evolution, introducing the mechanism of evolutionary economics. The models discussed in the book help governments and policy-makers tackle climate change and take positive measures on climate governance as well as promote economic and social development to narrow the gaps between countries.
Download or read book Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy written by Haris Doukas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.
Download or read book Climate Change Modeling and Downscaling written by U. S. Global Program and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2015-04-18 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In December 2010, the Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy in conjunction with the U.S. Global Change Research Program convened a workshop in Arlington, Virginia to address questions and issues regarding the use of mathematical models for the National Climate Assessment (NCA). The workshop also addressed the complex issues that arise when data and models are applied at multiple spatial and temporal scales, an inherent requirement of a national climate assessment. An Interagency National Climate Assessment (INCA) Task Force provided guidance regarding purpose, scope, and objectives of the workshop. The results of the workshop in turn offer guidance not only for the National Climate Assessment but also more generally for future research in the use of models for these tasks. The workshop included plenary-session presentations and panels as well as breakout group discussions. Presentations and discussions covered both global and regional climate models and linkages of these models to enable regional analyses or downscaling of variables constrained by global model results. Participants reviewed potential use of carbon cycle and other biogeochemical cycling models as well as a range of models for analyzing the impacts of climate change on various sectors and within different regions. Integrated assessment models that relate climate change to human factors were discussed, as were various options for coupling models (used to assess climate change impacts) to either data on human activities or models of various human systems. Participants offered significant insights about the use of models within the overall NCA structure of linked sectors and regions. A number of workshop findings and recommendations apply to the development of a longer-term, sustained Assessment process.
Download or read book An Integrated Assessment Modeling Framework for Uncertainty Studies in Global and Regional Climate Change written by Erwan Monier and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 2085 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen climate parameters provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century changes in global mean surface air temperature from previous work with the IGSM. Because the IGSM-CAM framework only considers one particular climate model, it cannot be used to assess the structural modeling uncertainty arising from differences in the parameterization suites of climate models. However, comparison of the IGSM-CAM projections with simulations of 31 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show that the range of warming at the continental scale shows very good agreement between the two ensemble simulations, except over Antarctica, where the IGSM-CAM overestimates the warming. This demonstrates that by sampling the climate system response, the IGSM-CAM, even though it relies on one single climate model, can essentially reproduce the range of future continental warming simulated by more than 30 different models. Precipitation changes projected in the IGSM-CAM simulations and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble both display a large uncertainty at the continental scale. The two ensemble simulations show good agreement over Asia and Europe. However, the ranges of precipitation changes do not overlap -- but display similar size -- over Africa and South America, two continents where models generally show little agreement in the sign of precipitation changes and where CCSM3 tends to be an outlier. Overall, the IGSM-CAM provides an efficient and consistent framework to explore the large uncertainty in future projections of global and regional climate change associated with uncertainty in the climate response and projected emissions.
Download or read book Modelling Global Change written by Marco Janssen and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1998 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a study of integrated assessment modelling, a subject brought into prominence by the debate on climate change whose goal is sustainable development. A transdisciplinary approach is used, which encompasses the main issues in a changing global system and coverage of methodological principles.
Download or read book The Regional Impacts of Climate Change written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II. and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.
Download or read book Energy and Environment written by Richard Loulou and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-04-20 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new work on energy and environmental modeling describes a broad variety of modeling methodologies, embodied in models of varying scopes and philosophies. Examples range from top-down integrated assessment models to bottom-up partial equilibrium models, to hybrid models.
Download or read book Climate Change An Integrated Perspective written by Pim Martens and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-11 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global climate change - rapid, substantial and human induced - may have radical consequences for life on earth. The problem is a complex one, however, demanding a multi-disciplinary approach. A simple cost-benefit analysis cannot capture the essentials, nor can the issue be reduced to an emissions reduction game, as the Kyoto process tries to do. It is much more sensible to adopt an integrative approach, which reveals that global climate change needs to be considered as a spider in a web, a triggering factor for a range of other, related problems - land use changes, water supply and demand, food supply, energy supply, human health, air pollution, etc. But an approach like this, which takes account of all items of knowledge, known and uncertain, does not produce clear-cut, final and popular answers. It does provide useful insights, however, which will allow comprehensive and effective long-term climate strategies to be put into effect. Climate Change: An Integrated Perspective will appeal to a broad spectrum of readers. It is a useful source for the climate-change professionals, such as policy makers and analysts, natural and social scientists. It is also suitable for educationalists, students and indeed anyone interested in the fascinating world of multidisciplinary research underlying our approach to this global change issue.
Download or read book Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change written by Manola Brunet India and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 648 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For the very first time, this book provides updated, integrated and organized, theoretical and methodological information on regional climate change and the associated environmental and socio-economic impacts on a regional scale. The most recent findings in the field of long-term climate change, which improve our understanding of the global climate puzzle, will be presented. Readers are introduced to state-of-the-art research in downscaling and GCMs, which involve the construction of reliable regional climate scenarios and the solution to key problems regarding the assessment of the impacts of climate change in the most important geographical areas of the world, from the Arctic to Antarctic regions, with special emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere.
Download or read book Regional Climate Change and Variability written by Ruth, M. Donaghy, K. Kirshen, P. and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2006-06-27 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: '. . . a welcome addition to both the climate change and regional science literature. . .a resource for researchers in the field who are working to bridge the gap between climate research and the needs of local and regional decision makers who will design adaptive strategies in response to climate change. . . having some of the best regional climate impacts work in one place is reason enough to have this book on the shelf.' - James Neumann, Journal of Regional Science
Download or read book The Integrated Earth System Model Version 1 written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 2203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human-Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. The iESM project integrates the economic and human-dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human-Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper describes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.
Download or read book Climate Change Modeling Methodology written by Philip J. Rasch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-09 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.4°F over the past century, and computer models project that it will rise much more over the next hundred years, with significant impacts on weather, climate, and human society. Many climate scientists attribute these increases to the build up of greenhouse gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels and to the anthropogenic production of short-lived climate pollutants. Climate Change Modeling Methodologies: Selected Entries from the Encyclopaedia of Sustainability Science and Technology provides readers with an introduction to the tools and analysis techniques used by climate change scientists to interpret the role of these forcing agents on climate. Readers will also gain a deeper understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these models and how to test and assess them. The contributions include a glossary of key terms and a concise definition of the subject for each topic, as well as recommendations for sources of more detailed information.
Download or read book Image 2 0 written by J. Alcamo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Only a few laboratories in the world have taken the bold step to attempt the integration of sub-models of the climate system, the global biogeochemical cycles and the human/societal components. This volume reports such a major undertaking and it is an important step towards an integrated approach to global change science. The IMAGE 2 model is important in demonstrating our current ability to model the complex global system.
