Download or read book A Stochastic Approach to Model Housing Markets written by Bilgi Yilmaz and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study aims to estimate the price changes in housing markets using a stochastic process, which is defined in the form of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). It proposes a general SDEs system on the price structure in terms of house price index and mortgage rate to establish an effective process. As an empirical analysis, it applies a calibration procedure to an SDE on monthly S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index (HPI) and 30-year fixed mortgage rate to estimate parameters of differentiable functions defined in SDEs. The prediction power of the proposed stochastic model is justified through a Monte Carlo algorithm for one-year ahead monthly forecasts of the HPI returns. The results of the study show that the stochastic processes are flexible in terms of the choice of structure, compact with respect to the number of exogenous variables involved, and it is a literal method. Furthermore, this approach has a relatively high estimation power in forecasting the national house prices.

Download or read book The Housing Boom and Bust written by Thomas Sowell and published by Basic Books (AZ). This book was released on 2009-05-12 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.

Download or read book Modelling Spatial Housing Markets written by Geoffrey Meen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Spatial fixity is one of the characteristics that distinguishes housing from most other goods and services in the economy. In general, housing cannot be moved from one part of the country to another in response to shortages or excesses in particular areas. The modelling of housing markets and the interlinkages between markets at different spatial levels - international, national, regional and urban - are the main themes of this book. A second major theme is disaggregation, not only in terms of space, but also between households. The book argues that aggregate time-series models of housing markets of the type widely used in Britain and also in other countries in the past have become less relevant in a world of increasing income dispersion. Typically, aggregate relationships will break down, except under special conditions. We can no longer assume that traditional location or tenure patterns, for example, will continue in the future. The book has four main components. First, it discusses trends in housing markets both internationally and within nations. Second, the book develops theoretical housing models at each spatial scale, starting with national models, moving down to the regional level and, then, to urban models. Third, the book provides empirical estimates of the models and, finally, the models are used for policy analysis. Analysis ranges over a wide variety of topics, including explanations for differing international house price trends, the causes of housing cycles, the role of credit markets, regional housing market interactions and the role of housing in urban/suburban population drift.

Download or read book House Price Methodology written by Marko Hannonen and published by Suomen E-painos Oy. This book was released on with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This booklet discusses some major methodological issues relating to the construction of house price models on a macro level. There is no single method that always produces the optimal results; the choice of a particular approach, method, theory, model and technique is context-dependent. This is especially true in housing markets, where a multitude of different submarkets exist. The methodology chosen should be based on sound theory, from which the basic concepts of analysis can be derived. This booklet discusses the use of potential models, which can be constructed using a general field theory, and which act as a theoretical foundation for further analysis. If we use potential models for house price analysis we can discover additional features from the data set that other approaches would simply miss. This e-book presents a pragmatic overview of key methodological concerns with the emphasis on the use of potential models. Theoretical methodological questions are left unanswered, and are not even presented in this text, since they have little relevancy to real-world modelling questions.

Download or read book Analysis of the Housing Market in the Metropolitan Areas in the United States written by Yarui Li and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The housing market plays a significant role in shaping the economic and social well-being of U.S. households. It helps spur U.S. economic growth when house prices rise, and drags the economic growth when house prices drop. In this dissertation, an analysis is conducted to project the direction of the U.S. housing market and to discover how it interacts with economic fundamentals. New pieces of information are found, which are deemed to facilitate decision making for both policy makers and investors. In the first part of the dissertation, the groupings of U.S. housing markets are studied using cluster and discriminant analysis. Three clusters are found, which are located in the central, the east coast, and the west coast of US. There are no price signals transmitted among these housing market clusters, nor within each cluster. Thus, the communication of information in the housing market is through the process of utility convergence of marginal residents, and no price convergence across regions is found. Next, the impact of credit constraint on the house prices is examined with the stochastic components of the price series being considered. Both a simulation technique and a DAG approach are employed. The resulting causal pattern shows that credit constraints affect the house prices directly and positively. Moreover, credit constraints work as an intermediary, passing the influence of the house investor, household income, and user cost onto house prices, which suggests that the credit relaxation policy should be carried out with caution when house inventory and household income send inconsistent signals. Last, the model selection for house price analysis is discussed from the perspective of large-scale models -- dynamic factor (DFM) model and large-scale Bayesian VAR (LBVAR) model. The LBVAR models are found to have superior performance compared to the DFM model throughout the prediction period. Also, it is found that the combined forecasts do not necessarily outperform individual forecasts. Even though independent information from different individual models improves the forecast accuracy, the benefit gained from marginal information is offset by the larger error brought by such combination. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/151894

Download or read book On the Use of Stochastic Processes in Modeling Reliability Problems written by Alessandro Birolini and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic processes are powerful tools for the investigation of reliability and availability of repairable equipment and systems. Because of the involved models, and in order to be mathematically tractable, these processes are generally confined to the class of regenerative stochastic processes with a finite state space, to which belong: renewal processes, Markov processes, semi-Markov processes, and more general regenerative processes with only one (or a few) regeneration staters). The object of this monograph is to review these processes and to use them in solving some reliability problems encountered in practical applications. Emphasis is given to a comprehensive exposition of the analytical procedures, to the limitations in volved, and to the unification and extension of. the models known in the literature. The models investigated here assume. that systems have only one repair crew and that no further failure can occur at system down. Repair and failure rates are general ized step-by-step, up to the case in which the involved process is regenerative with only one (or a few) regeneration state(s). Investigations deal with different kinds of reliabilities and availabilities for series/parallel structures. Preventive main tenance and imperfect switching are considered in some examples.

Download or read book Urban Dynamics Routledge Revivals written by C.S. Bertuglia and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-12-19 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1990, this work analyses the use of contemporary computer models to simulate urban systems. The work deals with the two significant traditions of model-building: firstly the building of integrated models following the seminal research of Lowry first published in 1964, but with relatively simple submodels; and secondly, intensive research on particular submodels with a variety of techniques. This volume constructs a model-building exercise which integrates the two traditions: an integrated model (in a modular form with alternative components) using the most advanced submodels. The book concludes with a presentation of an example of an operational model of this type.

Download or read book A Stochastic Approach to Modelling and Forecasting Dependent Time series written by Craig Ellis and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stochastic Modeling of Stock Prices Incorporating Jump Diffusion and Shot Noise Models written by Daniel Janocha and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2016-08-01 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2016 in the subject Mathematics - Stochastics, grade: 1,7, Technical University of Darmstadt (Forschungsgebiet Stochastik), course: Mathematik - Finanzmathematik, language: English, abstract: In this thesis, we present a stochastic model for stock prices incorporating jump diffusion and shot noise models based on the work of Altmann, Schmidt and Stute ("A Shot Noise Model For Financial Assets") and on its continuation by Schmidt and Stute ("Shot noise processes and the minimal martingale measure"). These papers differ in modeling the decay of the jump effect: Whereas it is deterministic in the first paper, it is stochastic in the last paper. In general, jump effects exist because of overreaction due to news in the press, due to illiquidity or due to incomplete information, i.e. because certain information are available only to few market participants. In financial markets, jump effects fade away as time passes: On the one hand, if the stock price falls, new investors are motivated to buy the stock. On the other hand, a rise of the stock price may lead to profit-taking, i.e. some investors sell the stock in order to lock in gains. Shot noise models are based on Merton's jump diffusion models where the decline of the jump effect after a price jump is neglected. In contrast to jump diffusion models, shot noise models respect the decay of jump effects. In complete markets, the so-called equivalent martingale measure is used to price European options and for hedging. Since stock price models incorporating jumps describe incomplete markets, the equivalent martingale measure cannot be determined uniquely. Hence, in this thesis, we deduce the so-called equivalent minimal martingale measure, both in discrete and continuous time. In contrast to Merton's jump diffusion models and to the well-known pricing model of Black and Scholes, the presented shot noise models are able to reproduce volatility smile effects which can be observed in financial markets.

Download or read book Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications written by Luc Bauwens and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-22 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Download or read book Choice and Allocation Models for the Housing Market written by J. Rouwendal and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is generally agreed that food, clothing and shelter are the three basic material needs of all people. A simple test for the successfulness of any economic system may therefore be the extent to which it succeeds in providing the population with these commodities. One would conjecture that in the countries that are generally considered as highly developed there would be no problems at all with their availability. And although this conjecture is to a large extent, confirmed by the evidence, it is nevertheless surprising that in western economies with the high per capita incomes housing is still an important object for public concern. Food and clothing are abundantly available in these countries, but the provision of housing is often an object of serious policy concern. To mention one striking example : in the Netherlands there still exist official figures that mention housing shortages of ten thousends of dwellings. This state of affairs is not mentioned here to motivate an exaggerated view on housing problems in Western countries. The situation in the Netherlands and comparable countries is indeed much better than that in underdeveloped countries and a comparison with developing countries would presumably show figures which are comparable to those for food or clothing. The point I want to make is that even in highly developed market economies where the availability of food and clothing is quite satisfactory, the availability of dwellings often is not.

Download or read book Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics vol 5B written by Gilles Duranton and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2015-05-15 with total page 967 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developments in methodologies, agglomeration, and a range of applied issues have characterized recent advances in regional and urban studies. Volume 5 concentrates on these developments while treating traditional subjects such as housing, the costs and benefits of cities, and policy issues beyond regional inequalities. Contributors make a habit of combining theory and empirics in each chapter, guiding research amid a trend in applied economics towards structural and quasi-experimental approaches. Clearly distinguished from the New Economic Geography covered by Volume 4, these articles feature an international approach that positions recent advances within the discipline of economics and society at large. Editors are recognized as leaders and can attract an international list of contributors Regional and urban studies interest economists in many subdisciplines, such as labor, development, and public economics Table of contents combines theoretical and applied subjects, ensuring broad appeal to readers

Download or read book Stochastic Choice Models and Spatial Price Equilibria in Rental Housing Markets written by Alex Anas and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modelling the City written by C S Bertuglia and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-08-21 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modelling the City examines the changing role of urban models in respect to both the need to readdress measures of urban well-being and the perceived need to bring model outputs more in tune with key planning problems. The authors argue that whilst there has been substantial progress with a wide range of theoretical problems in urban modelling, modellers have not paid enough attention to the usefulness of their model outputs in terms of indicators which offer new insights into the workings of the city or region. Modelling the City offers a `new geography of performance indicators' for the public and private sector based on the principles of spatial interaction.

Download or read book Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics written by Gilles Duranton and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2015-06-29 with total page 1686 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developments in methodologies, agglomeration, and a range of applied issues have characterized recent advances in regional and urban studies. Volume 5 concentrates on these developments while treating traditional subjects such as housing, the costs and benefits of cities, and policy issues beyond regional inequalities. Contributors make a habit of combining theory and empirics in each chapter, guiding research amid a trend in applied economics towards structural and quasi-experimental approaches. Clearly distinguished from the New Economic Geography covered by Volume 4, these articles feature an international approach that positions recent advances within the discipline of economics and society at large. - Emphasizes advances in applied econometrics and the blurring of "within" and "between" cities - Promotes the integration of theory and empirics in most chapters - Presents new research on housing, especially in macro and international finance contexts

Download or read book Microeconomic Models of Housing Markets written by Konrad Stahl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present volume is an outgrowth of several years' interactions be tween U. S. American and W. -German economists interested in analyzing the structure and functioning of housing markets, and the impacts of govern mental policies on these markets. Such an interaction turns out to be fruitful in several respects. Unquestionably, German economists can learn a lot from the high level of sophistication exhibited in much of the American literature. However, this is not a one way road of learning and the adoption of concepts, for the following reason. Most of the analysis presented in that literature hinges on the use of the standard microeco nomics textbook tools. Now, even a casual observation of housing markets in European countries reveals that behavior and conduct in these markets do not follow the assumptions presumed in this mode of analysis, which calls into question the uncritical employment of that tool kit. This has important consequences for policy analysis and indeed, for some principal attitudes towards housing policy, and points sharply to the need for developing analytical concepts that take up more of the pecul iarities of housing market behavior and conduct. While such a develop ment may be particularly warranted in view of European housing markets, we maintain this to be the case in view of the American housing market as well.

Download or read book A New Approach to Estimating Equilibrium Models for Metropolitan Housing Markets written by Dennis Epple and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We formulate and estimate a new equilibrium model of metropolitan housing markets with housing differentiated by quality. Quality is a latent variable that captures all features of a dwelling and its environment. We estimate the model for Chicago and New York, obtaining hedonic housing price functions for each quality level for each metropolitan area, stocks of each quality, and compensating variations required for a household of a given income in Chicago to be equally well off in New York.