Download or read book Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.
Download or read book A Simple Multivariate Filter for the Measurement of Potential Output written by Douglas Laxton and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-07 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
Download or read book Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States written by Ali; Bizimana Olivier; Domit Alichi (Silvia) and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-04 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010), Blagrave and others (2015), and Alichi and others (2015). We show that, although still fairly uncertain, the real-time estimates from this approach are more accurate than estimates constructed from naïve univariate statistical filters. The paper presents illustrative estimates for the United States and discusses how the end-of-sample estimates can be improved with additional information.
Download or read book Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The estimates of potential output and the output gap presented in this paper are not official IMF estimates. The programs and potential output estimates in this paper can be downloaded from www.douglaslaxton.org.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. The authors would like to thank the European Department of the IMF for helpful comments. All errors and omissions are our own.
Download or read book A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Download or read book Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-19 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.
Download or read book Measurement of the Output Gap written by Pierre St.-Amant and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. The first group of methods considered are those that simply use some implicit or explicit assumptions about the dynamics of real output to identify the output gap, including the Hodrick and Prescott filter for identifying the cyclical component of output. The second group consists of approaches that combine their assumptions with information from assumed or structural relationships between the output gap and other economic variables. The third class of methods uses multivariate rather than univariate dynamic relationships, often in combination with structural relationships from economic theory, to estimate output gap as a particular transitory component of real output.
Download or read book What Is in Your Output Gap Unified Framework Decomposition into Observables written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-10 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output in Chile written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-14 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a multivariate filter, we estimate potential growth rates in Chile’s mining and non-mining sectors. Estimates for the mining sector incorporate information on copper prices, whereas estimates for non-mining reflect information on inflation and unemployment rates. To better understand the drivers of potential growth, we decompose estimates into capital, labor (adjusted for human-capital and hours worked), and total-factor productivity using a production-function. Our estimates of potential output in Chile suggest that an important part of the recent growth slowdown has been structural, with potential-output growth slowing to 21⁄2 percent in recent years, although it plausibly could be higher in the medium-term.
Download or read book A Closed Form Multivariate Linear Filter written by Mr.Francis Vitek and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers the problem of jointly decomposing a set of time series variables into cyclical and trend components, subject to sets of stochastic linear restrictions among these cyclical and trend components. We derive a closed form solution to an ordinary problem featuring homogeneous penalty term difference orders and static restrictions, as well as to a generalized problem featuring heterogeneous penalty term difference orders and dynamic restrictions. We use our Generalized Multivariate Linear Filter to jointly estimate potential output, the natural rate of unemployment and the natural rate of interest, conditional on selected equilibrium conditions from a calibrated New Keynesian model.
Download or read book Botswana written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07-27 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As of end-2021, Botswana had recovered to its pre-crisis output level thanks to a strong rebound in demand for diamonds, a successful vaccination campaign, and policy support. Fiscal and current account deficits both narrowed sharply, and foreign reserves stabilized but buffers are yet to be fully rebuilt. Inflation exceeded the central bank’s medium-term objective range, while unemployment rose close to record highs. Growth in 2022 and beyond is expected to be around potential, while fiscal and external positions are projected to strengthen with more favorable terms of trade and strong fiscal consolidation. Risks to the outlook are associated with the war in Ukraine, the pandemic, and the implementation of fiscal consolidation and economic diversification plans.
Download or read book Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory Volume Two written by E. Levrero and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the publication of Piero Sraffa's Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities, the papers selected and contained in Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory account for the work completed around the two central aspects of his contribution to economic analysis, namely the criticism of the neoclassical (or marginalist) theory of value and distribution, and the reconstruction of economic theory along the lines of the Classical approach. Divided into three volumes, Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory debates the most fruitful routes for advancement in this field and their implications for applied and policy analysis. This second volume focuses on the theory of output and growth as developed in the modern classical approach on the basis of the extension to the long run of the Keynesian principle of effective demand, and on the implications of the revival of the classical approach for policy analysis and for understanding the evolution of the international economic order in the last few decades.
Download or read book Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic written by Mr.Roberto Garcia-Saltos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-18 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents estimates of potential output for all Central American economies. Our findings are that potential output growth has declined in recent years in most economies of Central America. Lower capital accumulation and TFP growth are accounting for most of this decline. Apart from Costa Rica, there are no indications of significant economic slack in 2015 in Central America. Looking forward, potential growth in most Central American economies is expected to continue at an average of 4 percent in the medium-term due to structural constraints to capital and employment growth, and low TFP growth. Increasing potential growth, thus, should be a policy priority and structural reforms must be directed at improving business conditions, product and labor markets, and enhancing the capacity for innovation.
Download or read book The Sources of Economic Growth in OECD Countries written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2003-02-25 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication examines the causes of the divergence in growth across the OECD.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Performance in a Globalising Economy written by Robert Anderton and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-11-25 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The process of globalisation has been ongoing for centuries, but few would doubt that it has accelerated and intensified in recent decades. This acceleration is evidenced as much by the strong synchronicity in the rapid transmission of financial crises starting in late 2007 as it is by the decade of almost unprecedented growth in international trade and financial market liberalisation that preceded it. This book shows how the international economy has become more connected via increased production, trade, capital flows and financial linkages. Using a variety of methodologies, including both panel econometrics and DSGE modelling, a team of experts from academia, central banks and the IMF examine how this increased globalisation has affected competitiveness, productivity, inflation and the labour market. This timely contribution to the globalisation literature provides a longer-term perspective while also evaluating some of the potential implications for policy makers, particularly from a European perspective.
