Download or read book A Practical Guide to Economic Forecasting 2nd Edition written by Christopher Leslie Heaton and published by . This book was released on 2005-07-01 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Practical Guide to Economic Forecasting written by Christopher L. Heaton and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting written by Philip Hans Franses and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-04-24 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.
Download or read book Business Forecasting written by A. Reza Hoshmand and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-04 with total page 563 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The information age has brought greater interconnection across the world, and transformed the global marketplace. To remain competitive, business firms look for ways of improving their ability to gauge business and economic conditions around the world. At the same time, advances in technology have revolutionized the way we process information and prepare business and economic forecasts. Secondary data searches, data collection, data entry and analysis, graphical visualization, and reporting can all be accomplished with the help of computers that provide access to information not previously available. Forecasters should therefore learn the techniques and models involved, as applied in this new era. Business Forecasting: A Practical Approach is intended as an applied text for students and practitioners of forecasting who have some background in economics and statistics. The presentation is conceptual in nature with emphasis on rationale, application, and interpretation of the most commonly used forecasting techniques. The goal of this book is to provide students and managers with an overview of a broad range of techniques and an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. It is based on the assumption that forecasting skills are best developed and retained by starting with simple models, followed by repeated exposure to real world examples. The book makes extensive use of international examples to amplify concepts.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Ken Holden and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work is the only currently available text that provides comprehensive coverage of the methods and applications in the rapidly developing field of forecasting the future state of the economy.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Download or read book Forecasting principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Download or read book A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility written by Ser-Huang Poon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-08-19 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.
Download or read book Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods written by Eric Ghysels and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018 with total page 617 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making in the public and private sectors. This book provides the necessary tools to solve real-world forecasting problems using time-series methods. It targets undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in public and private institutions interested in applied economic forecasting.
Download or read book Sales Forecasting written by Mark Blessington and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2015-10-10 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sales Forecasting is a practical guide for beginning and intermediate sales forecasters. The book does not use complex formulas. Instead, it is designed around the author's application of the learning curve to sales forecasting. Millions of sales forecasts are made by hundreds of thousands of people every year. Sales forecasts for every product and every sales territory in the world are made at least once a year, if not monthly. Then there are various aggregations of these forecasts, such as product to product line to division, and territory to district to region. Further, multiple functional areas across the company make sales forecasts. Sales, marketing, finance and manufacturing are all involved, at least on an annual basis, and often much more frequently. The sad truth is that few forecasters have any formal education or training on the subject. Part of this is because most forecasting books use numerous complex formulas, which are arcane, intimidating and off-putting. Another reason is that sales forecasters are encouraged to place too much trust in forecasting software by vendors who tend to make exaggerated and unsubstantiated claims about forecasting accuracy. Sales Forecasting breaks new ground. It re-invents the process of teaching the subject of sales forecasting. It is designed around the learning curve. The author's experience in day trading, along with decades of sales and marketing consulting, taught him the essential ingredients of sales forecasting. These are provided in Part 1 of the book. The first and most important skill is error measurement. The author makes a clear declaration about the best method and demonstrates its use throughout the book. The second skill is testing, and the author demonstrates how to divide historical sales data into in- and out-samples, calibrate models on the in-sample, and assess model accuracy by forecasting the out-sample. The third and fourth skills are avoiding linear extensions and mastering exponential smoothing. Part 1 is concluded with a description of the whole forecasting process and what is called "five-step forecasting." Part 2 moves into intermediate forecasting. Leading software packages are assessed through the author's research. Very little is published on forecasting software assessment, so this chapter plays an important role. Then ARIMA and ARIMAX are taught and demonstrated through multiple examples. These two methods, combined with exponential smoothing, form the foundation of intermediate forecasting. Perhaps the most exciting chapters in Part 2 involve aggregation. This is a fairly new field and it is growing rapidly. The author identifies some important gaps in the field, then fills them with his own research. Anyone involved in sales forecasting can benefit from these important findings. A chapter is dedicated to demonstrating the application of sound techniques to common forecasting challenges in marketing and sales departments: product planning and quota setting. It becomes quite clear that traditional methods generate far more error than the basic sales forecasting techniques taught in this book. The author also examines the topic of handicapping, or determining how much confidence to place on a forecast. He introduces the concept of "true confidence ranges" and also demonstrates the application of Bayesian probabilities to sales forecasting. To conclude the book, the author explores economic forecasting and closes with a discussion of common forecasting pitfalls to be avoided at all costs.
Download or read book Business and Economic Forecasting for the Information Age written by A. Reza Hoshmand and published by Praeger. This book was released on 2002-12-30 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The globalization of business and the ubiquity of available data in the information age are the driving forces behind the increasing importance of economic forecasting. In order to remain competitive, private and public organizations alike must employ forecasting techniques effectively. Hoshmand emphasizes the application and practical use of such techniques rather than their theoretical grounding. Decision makers and students who have a solid background in economics and statistics will find this book eminently useful. After discussing the role of forecasting in business decisions, the author moves on to smoothing techniques, regression models, and the advanced time series models of Box-Jenkins. Of particular help to practitioners is the concluding chapter on how to communicate forecasts to management. Forecasting professionals and researchers will benefit greatly from the information presented by Hoshmand, especially in their role as advisors to management. Few forecasters and even fewer managers will have had the luxury to remain fully informed of the new developments in this rapidly expanding field. Meanwhile, the importance of accurate forecasting to every realm of corporate strategy—production, inventory, purchasing, accounting, marketing, finance, and acquisitions decisions, to name a few—has increased exponentially due to the proliferation of data, the heating up of global competition, and the softening of many markets. No one today can afford to remain ignorant of the importance of economic forecasting for business decisions.
Download or read book Practical Time Series Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 2012-07-24 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practical Time Series Forecasting is a hands-on introduction to quantitative forecasting of time series. Quantitative forecasting is an important component of decision making in a wide range of areas and across many business functions including economic forecasting, workload projections, sales forecasts, and transportation demand. Forecasting is also widely used also outside of business, such as in demography and climatology. The book introduces readers to the most popular statistical models and data mining algorithms used in practice. It covers issues relating to different steps of the forecasting process, from goal definition through data collection, visualization, pre-processing, modeling, performance evaluation to implementation and communication. The second edition offers a large amount of new content and improved organization. Practical Time Series Forecasting is suitable for courses on forecasting at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It offers clear explanations, examples, end-of-chapter problems and a case. Methods are illustrated using XLMiner, an Excel add-on. However, any software that has time series forecasting capabilities can be used with the book.
Download or read book Practical Business Forecasting written by Michael K. Evans and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 2009-08-03 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stressing the concrete applications of economic forecasting, Practical Business Forecasting is accessible to a wide-range of readers, requiring only a familiarity with basic statistics. The text focuses on the use of models in forecasting, explaining how to build practical forecasting models that produce optimal results. In a clear and detailed format, the text covers estimating and forecasting with single and multi- equation models, univariate time-series modeling, and determining forecasting accuracy. Additionally, case studies throughout the book illustrate how the models are actually estimated and adjusted to generate accurate forecasts. After reading this text, students and readers should have a clearer idea of the reasoning and choices involved in building models, and a deeper foundation in estimating econometric models used in practical business forecasting.
Download or read book Handbook of Key Economic Indicators written by R. Mark Rogers and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 1998 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text provides a thorough explanation of the non-financial economic indicators that are closely watched by the financial markets. It details how the indicators are compiled and what the statistical significance is for the economy, as well as presenting insights into interpreting the data.
Download or read book Financial Forecasting Analysis and Modelling written by Michael Samonas and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-01-20 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.
Download or read book Applied Time Series Analysis written by Terence C. Mills and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2019-02-08 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written for those who need an introduction, Applied Time Series Analysis reviews applications of the popular econometric analysis technique across disciplines. Carefully balancing accessibility with rigor, it spans economics, finance, economic history, climatology, meteorology, and public health. Terence Mills provides a practical, step-by-step approach that emphasizes core theories and results without becoming bogged down by excessive technical details. Including univariate and multivariate techniques, Applied Time Series Analysis provides data sets and program files that support a broad range of multidisciplinary applications, distinguishing this book from others. Focuses on practical application of time series analysis, using step-by-step techniques and without excessive technical detail Supported by copious disciplinary examples, helping readers quickly adapt time series analysis to their area of study Covers both univariate and multivariate techniques in one volume Provides expert tips on, and helps mitigate common pitfalls of, powerful statistical software including EVIEWS and R Written in jargon-free and clear English from a master educator with 30 years+ experience explaining time series to novices Accompanied by a microsite with disciplinary data sets and files explaining how to build the calculations used in examples
Download or read book Practical Time Series Forecasting with R written by Galit Shmueli and published by . This book was released on 2015-07-17 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Practical time series forecasting with R is a hands-on introduction to quantitative forecasting of time series. Quantitative forecasting is an important component of decision making in a wide range of areas and across many business functions including economic forecasting, workload projections, sales forecasts, and transportation demand ... The book introduces readers to the most popular statistical models and data mining algorithms used in practice. It covers issues relating to different steps of the forecasting process, form goal definion through data collection, visualization, pre-processing, modeling, performance evaluation to implementation and communication."--Back cover.
