Download or read book A Novel Multivariate Decomposition Ensemble Model with News Text for Crude Oil Price Forecasting written by Zhengling Zhao and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting crude oil prices is crucial for every individual and even the entire country. Previous studies have encountered difficulties in forecasting highly nonlinear crude oil prices, especially when conflicts, wars, and other irregular events occur. In light of this, this study proposes a novel multivariate decomposition ensemble model with news text for crude oil price forecasting, which mainly consists of four steps. First, data fusion of multivariate forecasters is performed. Second, the crude oil price and its forecasters are decomposed and reconstructed using multivariate empirical mode decomposition (MEMD) and sample entropy (SE), respectively. Thereafter, the effective forecasters are screened from the reconstruction subcomponents of forecasters through the Granger causality test. Finally, the crude oil price is forecasted using a hybrid forecasting technique, and the validity of the proposed model is evaluated from different perspectives. The empirical results indicate that the proposed model achieves excellent performance in forecasting the West Texas Intermediate weekly spot price.
Download or read book What Can Be Learned from the Historical Trend of Crude Oil Prices An Ensemble Approach to Crude Oil Price Forecasting written by Mingchen Li and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Crude oil price series are nonlinear and highly volatile, making it difficult to obtain satisfactory performance for traditional statistical-based forecasting methods. To improve prediction accuracy, this study proposes a novel learning paradigm by integrating the trajectory similarity method with machine learning models based on the decomposition-ensemble framework. In the proposed learning paradigm, raw data of international crude oil prices are first decomposed using variational mode decomposition (VMD), after which, using sample entropy (SE), the resulting essential modal functions are divided into high and low frequencies. The process aims to reorganize the data by using the forecasting properties of different models. Finally, to obtain the final forecasting results, two models, i.e., the trajectory similarity method (TS) and artificial neural networks (ANN), are applied to predict and sum up the low and high-frequency subseries, respectively. As sample data for validation, this study selected the international crude oil price series of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent. Experimental results showed that the proposed VMD-SE-TS/ANN learning paradigm significantly outperforms all other benchmark models, including the single models without decomposition and the hybrid models with decomposition. The proposed approach performs best in different evaluation metrics and statistical tests under different horizons, indicating that the proposed VMD-SE-TS/ANN learning paradigm is effective and robust in crude oil price forecasting.
Download or read book A Blending Ensemble Learning Model for Crude Oil Price Prediction written by Mahmudul Hasan and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Given that the price of crude oil is driven by a number of factors with varying frequency, it is difficult to accurately capture its behavior, which in turn leads to challenges in forecasting. Moreover, different mechanisms of fluctuations have been observed at different time series periods. To efficiently capture these diverse fluctuation profiles, we propose to combine heterogenous predictors for predicting the crude oil price. Specifically, a forecasting model is developed using blended ensemble learning is developed that combines various machine learning methods, including linear regression, k-nearest neighbor regression, regression trees, support vector regression, and ridge regression. Brent and WTI crude oil data at various time series frequencies are used to validate the proposed blending ensemble learning approach. To show the effectiveness of the proposed model, its performance is compared with existing individual and ensemble learning methods used for crude oil price prediction, such as lasso regression, bagging lasso regression, boosting, random forest, and support vector regression. We show that our proposed blending ensemble learning model dominates the existing forecasting models in terms of forecasting errors. The proposed model exhibits a good prediction performance for both short- and long-term forecasting horizons, which is beneficial to stakeholders and related industries that depend on this energy source.
Download or read book EEMD CNN BiLSTM QR Enabled Probability Density Forecasts for Crude Oil Price written by Yanmei Huang and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The price of crude oil has been subject to periodical fluctuations as a consequence of changes in seasonal demand and supply, as well as weather, natural disasters, and global political unrest. Accurate forecast of crude oil prices is of utmost importance for decision-makers and industry players in the energy sector. Despite this, the volatility of crude oil prices contributes to the uncertainty of the energy industry, which was particularly challenging following the recent global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as Russia-Ukraine conflicts. This paper aims to propose a hybrid modeling framework to deal with the volatility of crude oil prices, employing several well-established data analytics such as ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), convolutional neural network (CNN), and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) integrated with quantile regression (QR), named as EEMD-CNN-BiLSTM-QR. Two sets of real-world data of crude oil prices from the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and the Brent Crude Oil markets were employed to validate the EEMD-CNN-BiLSTM-QR hybrid modeling framework. An in-depth analysis was carried out with the prediction accuracy being calculated while the probability density forecast remains uncertain. The findings of this study demonstrated that the proposed EEMD-CNN-BiLSTM-QR modeling framework is superior to other tested models in terms of its ability to forecast crude oil prices. The novelty of this study stems mostly from the use of QR, which allows for the description of the conditional distribution of predicted variables and the extraction of more uncertain information for probability density forecast.
Download or read book Multi Modal Sentiment Analysis written by Hua Xu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-11-26 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The natural interaction ability between human and machine mainly involves human-machine dialogue ability, multi-modal sentiment analysis ability, human-machine cooperation ability, and so on. To enable intelligent computers to have multi-modal sentiment analysis ability, it is necessary to equip them with a strong multi-modal sentiment analysis ability during the process of human-computer interaction. This is one of the key technologies for efficient and intelligent human-computer interaction. This book focuses on the research and practical applications of multi-modal sentiment analysis for human-computer natural interaction, particularly in the areas of multi-modal information feature representation, feature fusion, and sentiment classification. Multi-modal sentiment analysis for natural interaction is a comprehensive research field that involves the integration of natural language processing, computer vision, machine learning, pattern recognition, algorithm, robot intelligent system, human-computer interaction, etc. Currently, research on multi-modal sentiment analysis in natural interaction is developing rapidly. This book can be used as a professional textbook in the fields of natural interaction, intelligent question answering (customer service), natural language processing, human-computer interaction, etc. It can also serve as an important reference book for the development of systems and products in intelligent robots, natural language processing, human-computer interaction, and related fields.
Download or read book The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets written by Bassam Fattouh and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Tourism Demand written by Douglas Frechtling and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-05-23 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Forecasting tourism demand' is a text that no tourism professional can afford to be without. The tourism industry has experienced an overwhelming boom over recent years, and being able to predict future trends as accurately as possible is vital in the struggle to stay one step ahead of the competition. Building on the success of 'Practical Tourism Forecasting' this text looks at 13 methods of forecasting and with a user friendly style, 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' guides the reader through each method, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses and explaining how it can be applied to the tourism industry. 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' employs charts and tables to explain how to: * plan a forecasting project * analyse time series and other information * select the appropriate forecasting model * use the model for forecasting and evaluate its results Ideal for marketing managers and strategic planners in business, transportation planners and economic policy makers in government who must project demand for their products among tourists. Executives who rely on forecasts prepared by others will find it invaluable in assisting them to evaluate the validity and reliability of predictions and forecasts. Those engaged in analysing business trends will find it useful in surveying the future of what has been called the largest industry in the world.
Download or read book Bayesian Networks in R written by Radhakrishnan Nagarajan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-07-08 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Networks in R with Applications in Systems Biology is unique as it introduces the reader to the essential concepts in Bayesian network modeling and inference in conjunction with examples in the open-source statistical environment R. The level of sophistication is also gradually increased across the chapters with exercises and solutions for enhanced understanding for hands-on experimentation of the theory and concepts. The application focuses on systems biology with emphasis on modeling pathways and signaling mechanisms from high-throughput molecular data. Bayesian networks have proven to be especially useful abstractions in this regard. Their usefulness is especially exemplified by their ability to discover new associations in addition to validating known ones across the molecules of interest. It is also expected that the prevalence of publicly available high-throughput biological data sets may encourage the audience to explore investigating novel paradigms using the approaches presented in the book.
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Generalized Inverse of Matrices and Its Applications written by Calyampudi Radhakrishna Rao and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1971 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Notations and preliminaries; Generalized inverse of a matrix; Three basic types of g-inverses; Other special types of g-inverse; Projectors, idempotent matrices and partial isometry; Simulatneous reduction of a pair of herminitian forms; Estimation of parameters in linear models; Conditions for optimality and validity of least-squares theory; Distribution of quadratic forms; Miscellaneous applications of g-inverses; Computational methods; Bibliography on generalized inverses and applications; Index.
Download or read book Modern Multivariate Statistical Techniques written by Alan J. Izenman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-03-02 with total page 757 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book on multivariate analysis to look at large data sets which describes the state of the art in analyzing such data. Material such as database management systems is included that has never appeared in statistics books before.
Download or read book Ensemble Methods written by Zhi-Hua Zhou and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-06-06 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An up-to-date, self-contained introduction to a state-of-the-art machine learning approach, Ensemble Methods: Foundations and Algorithms shows how these accurate methods are used in real-world tasks. It gives you the necessary groundwork to carry out further research in this evolving field. After presenting background and terminology, the book covers the main algorithms and theories, including Boosting, Bagging, Random Forest, averaging and voting schemes, the Stacking method, mixture of experts, and diversity measures. It also discusses multiclass extension, noise tolerance, error-ambiguity and bias-variance decompositions, and recent progress in information theoretic diversity. Moving on to more advanced topics, the author explains how to achieve better performance through ensemble pruning and how to generate better clustering results by combining multiple clusterings. In addition, he describes developments of ensemble methods in semi-supervised learning, active learning, cost-sensitive learning, class-imbalance learning, and comprehensibility enhancement.
Download or read book Efficient Processing of Deep Neural Networks written by Vivienne Sze and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-05-31 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a structured treatment of the key principles and techniques for enabling efficient processing of deep neural networks (DNNs). DNNs are currently widely used for many artificial intelligence (AI) applications, including computer vision, speech recognition, and robotics. While DNNs deliver state-of-the-art accuracy on many AI tasks, it comes at the cost of high computational complexity. Therefore, techniques that enable efficient processing of deep neural networks to improve key metrics—such as energy-efficiency, throughput, and latency—without sacrificing accuracy or increasing hardware costs are critical to enabling the wide deployment of DNNs in AI systems. The book includes background on DNN processing; a description and taxonomy of hardware architectural approaches for designing DNN accelerators; key metrics for evaluating and comparing different designs; features of DNN processing that are amenable to hardware/algorithm co-design to improve energy efficiency and throughput; and opportunities for applying new technologies. Readers will find a structured introduction to the field as well as formalization and organization of key concepts from contemporary work that provide insights that may spark new ideas.
Download or read book Text Analytics with Python written by Dipanjan Sarkar and published by Apress. This book was released on 2016-11-30 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Derive useful insights from your data using Python. You will learn both basic and advanced concepts, including text and language syntax, structure, and semantics. You will focus on algorithms and techniques, such as text classification, clustering, topic modeling, and text summarization. Text Analytics with Python teaches you the techniques related to natural language processing and text analytics, and you will gain the skills to know which technique is best suited to solve a particular problem. You will look at each technique and algorithm with both a bird's eye view to understand how it can be used as well as with a microscopic view to understand the mathematical concepts and to implement them to solve your own problems. What You Will Learn: Understand the major concepts and techniques of natural language processing (NLP) and text analytics, including syntax and structure Build a text classification system to categorize news articles, analyze app or game reviews using topic modeling and text summarization, and cluster popular movie synopses and analyze the sentiment of movie reviews Implement Python and popular open source libraries in NLP and text analytics, such as the natural language toolkit (nltk), gensim, scikit-learn, spaCy and Pattern Who This Book Is For : IT professionals, analysts, developers, linguistic experts, data scientists, and anyone with a keen interest in linguistics, analytics, and generating insights from textual data
Download or read book Quantitative Methods for Economics and Finance written by J.E. Trinidad-Segovia and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-02-12 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of papers for the Special Issue “Quantitative Methods for Economics and Finance” of the journal Mathematics. This Special Issue reflects on the latest developments in different fields of economics and finance where mathematics plays a significant role. The book gathers 19 papers on topics such as volatility clusters and volatility dynamic, forecasting, stocks, indexes, cryptocurrencies and commodities, trade agreements, the relationship between volume and price, trading strategies, efficiency, regression, utility models, fraud prediction, or intertemporal choice.
Download or read book Electrical Load Forecasting written by S.A. Soliman and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2010-05-26 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world’s foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized. The book begins with a good description of the basic theory and models needed to truly understand how the models are prepared so that they are not just blindly plugging and chugging numbers. This is followed by a clear and rigorous exposition of the statistical techniques and algorithms such as regression, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. The book is also supported by an online computer program that allows readers to construct, validate, and run short and long term models. Step-by-step guide to model construction Construct, verify, and run short and long term models Accurately evaluate load shape and pricing Creat regional specific electrical load models
Download or read book AI and Financial Markets written by Shigeyuki Hamori and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-07-01 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Artificial intelligence (AI) is regarded as the science and technology for producing an intelligent machine, particularly, an intelligent computer program. Machine learning is an approach to realizing AI comprising a collection of statistical algorithms, of which deep learning is one such example. Due to the rapid development of computer technology, AI has been actively explored for a variety of academic and practical purposes in the context of financial markets. This book focuses on the broad topic of “AI and Financial Markets”, and includes novel research associated with this topic. The book includes contributions on the application of machine learning, agent-based artificial market simulation, and other related skills to the analysis of various aspects of financial markets.
