Download or read book A New Tight and General Bound on Return Predictability written by Valerio Potì and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a novel upper bound on the predictability of asset returns. This bound is tighter than the bound proposed by Ross (2005) because it takes into account not only the volatility of the pricing kernel but also the correlation between the pricing kernel and trading strategies that exploit predictability. It is also at least as tight as the bound proposed by Huang et al (2017). We apply our bound to study the predictability of returns on currencies of emerging and developed economies from 1994 to 2016. We find evidence of return predictability in excess of the bound, especially for emerging markets currencies. This implies either market inefficiency or, alternatively, that investors either can become very risk-averse or price currencies using a model radically different from the CAPM. In contrast, the evidence of excess-predictability is much weaker under the wider bound proposed by Ross (2005).
Download or read book Upper Bounds on Return Predictability written by Dashan Huang and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can the degree of predictability found in the data be explained by existing asset pricing models? We provide two theoretical upper bounds on the R-squares of predictive regressions. Using data on the market and component portfolios, we find that the empirical R-squares are significantly greater than the theoretical upper bounds. Our results suggest that the most promising direction for future research should aim to identify new state variables that are highly correlated with stock returns, instead of seeking more elaborate stochastic discount factors.
Download or read book A New Test on Asset Return Predictability with Structural Breaks written by Zongwu Cai and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Prediction Learning and Games written by Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-03-13 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers a comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections.
Download or read book High Dimensional Probability written by Roman Vershynin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An integrated package of powerful probabilistic tools and key applications in modern mathematical data science.
Download or read book Covered Interest Parity Deviations Macrofinancial Determinants written by Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-16 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely—even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial drivers of the variation in CIP deviations have also become significant. The variation in CIP deviations seems to be associated with multiple factors, not only regulatory changes. Most of these do not display a uniform importance across currency pairs and time, and some are associated with possible temporary considerations (such as asynchronous monetary policy cycles).
Download or read book The Algorithmic Foundations of Differential Privacy written by Cynthia Dwork and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The problem of privacy-preserving data analysis has a long history spanning multiple disciplines. As electronic data about individuals becomes increasingly detailed, and as technology enables ever more powerful collection and curation of these data, the need increases for a robust, meaningful, and mathematically rigorous definition of privacy, together with a computationally rich class of algorithms that satisfy this definition. Differential Privacy is such a definition. The Algorithmic Foundations of Differential Privacy starts out by motivating and discussing the meaning of differential privacy, and proceeds to explore the fundamental techniques for achieving differential privacy, and the application of these techniques in creative combinations, using the query-release problem as an ongoing example. A key point is that, by rethinking the computational goal, one can often obtain far better results than would be achieved by methodically replacing each step of a non-private computation with a differentially private implementation. Despite some powerful computational results, there are still fundamental limitations. Virtually all the algorithms discussed herein maintain differential privacy against adversaries of arbitrary computational power -- certain algorithms are computationally intensive, others are efficient. Computational complexity for the adversary and the algorithm are both discussed. The monograph then turns from fundamentals to applications other than query-release, discussing differentially private methods for mechanism design and machine learning. The vast majority of the literature on differentially private algorithms considers a single, static, database that is subject to many analyses. Differential privacy in other models, including distributed databases and computations on data streams, is discussed. The Algorithmic Foundations of Differential Privacy is meant as a thorough introduction to the problems and techniques of differential privacy, and is an invaluable reference for anyone with an interest in the topic.
Download or read book A Non Random Walk Down Wall Street written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-11-14 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For over half a century, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk--unpredictable meanderings akin to a drunkard's unsteady gait--and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics and many investment strategies. Here Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay put the Random Walk Hypothesis to the test. In this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles, Lo and MacKinlay find that markets are not completely random after all, and that predictable components do exist in recent stock and bond returns. Their book provides a state-of-the-art account of the techniques for detecting predictabilities and evaluating their statistical and economic significance, and offers a tantalizing glimpse into the financial technologies of the future. The articles track the exciting course of Lo and MacKinlay's research on the predictability of stock prices from their early work on rejecting random walks in short-horizon returns to their analysis of long-term memory in stock market prices. A particular highlight is their now-famous inquiry into the pitfalls of "data-snooping biases" that have arisen from the widespread use of the same historical databases for discovering anomalies and developing seemingly profitable investment strategies. This book invites scholars to reconsider the Random Walk Hypothesis, and, by carefully documenting the presence of predictable components in the stock market, also directs investment professionals toward superior long-term investment returns through disciplined active investment management.
Download or read book Computational Complexity written by Sanjeev Arora and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-04-20 with total page 609 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New and classical results in computational complexity, including interactive proofs, PCP, derandomization, and quantum computation. Ideal for graduate students.
Download or read book Keynes written by Robert Skidelsky and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2010-10-26 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the debris of the financial crash of 2008, the principles of John Maynard Keynes -- that economic storms are a normal part of the market system, that governments need to step in and use fiscal ammunition to prevent these storms from becoming depressions, and that societies that value the pursuit of money should reprioritize -- are more pertinent and applicable than ever. In Keynes: The Return of the Master, Robert Skidelsky brilliantly synthesizes Keynes career and life, and offers nervous capitalists a positive answer to the question we now face: When unbridled capitalism falters, is there an alternative?
Download or read book Feynman Kac Formulae written by Pierre Del Moral and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 567 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text takes readers in a clear and progressive format from simple to recent and advanced topics in pure and applied probability such as contraction and annealed properties of non-linear semi-groups, functional entropy inequalities, empirical process convergence, increasing propagations of chaos, central limit, and Berry Esseen type theorems as well as large deviation principles for strong topologies on path-distribution spaces. Topics also include a body of powerful branching and interacting particle methods.
Download or read book Congressional Record written by United States. Congress and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 1442 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book American Masonic Register and Literary Companion written by and published by . This book was released on 1829 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Working Paper Series written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book ECAI 2012 written by C. Bessiere and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2012-08-15 with total page 1056 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Artificial intelligence (AI) plays a vital part in the continued development of computer science and informatics. The AI applications employed in fields such as medicine, economics, linguistics, philosophy, psychology and logical analysis, not forgetting industry, are now indispensable for the effective functioning of a multitude of systems. This book presents the papers from the 20th biennial European Conference on Artificial Intelligence, ECAI 2012, held in Montpellier, France, in August 2012. The ECAI conference remains Europe's principal opportunity for researchers and practitioners of Artificial Intelligence to gather and to discuss the latest trends and challenges in all subfields of AI, as well as to demonstrate innovative applications and uses of advanced AI technology. ECAI 2012 featured four keynote speakers, an extensive workshop program, seven invited tutorials and the new Frontiers of Artificial Intelligence track, in which six invited speakers delivered perspective talks on particularly interesting new research results, directions and trends in Artificial Intelligence or in one of its related fields. The proceedings of PAIS 2012 and the System Demonstrations Track are also included in this volume, which will be of interest to all those wishing to keep abreast of the latest developments in the field of AI.
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 564 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Karl Marx s Grundrisse written by Marcello Musto and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2008-07-25 with total page 571 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written between 1857 and 1858, the Grundrisse is the first draft of Marx‘s critique of political economy and, thus, also the initial preparatory work on Capital. Despite its editorial vicissitudes and late publication, Grundrisse contains numerous reflections on matters that Marx did not develop elsewhere in his oeuvre and is therefore extremely im
