Download or read book A New Approach to El Ni o Southern Oscillation Origin and Forecasting Implications for Predictability written by Desislava Bozhidarova Petrova and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Niño Southern Oscillation arises in the tropical Pacific due to coupled atmosphere-ocean interactions. The nature of the dynamical system of the atmosphere is chaotic and its predictability is sensitive to initial conditions, which constraints our ability to foresee the evolution of ENSO for very long time in advance. This dissertation is dedicated to extending the state-of-the-art prediction of the phenomenon. It focuses on the identification of precursory signals in the ocean and atmosphere that improve the understanding and long-lead forecasts of ENSO. A new statistical modelling technique based on dynamic components and state-space methods is developed. Very early premonitory signals that are a result of an in-depth analysis of the processes accompanying the origin and evolution of El Niño, especially in the subsurface ocean, which is less impacted by initial conditions, are established. These tracers are defined in the far western and central tropical Pacific and are shown to anticipate El Niño two and a half years before its peak. Initial intensification of the easterly winds at this time is associated with convergence of mass, downwelling and warming of the subsurface ocean layers in the far west. Thus the South Equatorial Current and the Equatorial Undercurrent are strengthened, which leads to the propagation of warm subsurface anomalies eastward. These anomalous patterns later lead to changes in the circulation and warming of the surface of the ocean in the central tropical Pacific, which leads to the suppression of the easterly winds. The area of tropical convection shifts to the east, which weakens the Walker circulation and triggers the Bjerknes feedback. This allows the further propagation of the subsurface warm anomalies, which reach the eastern Pacific and are upwelled to the surface, which marks the onset of an El Niño . Warm anomalies in the subsurface equatorial ocean have been previously used as precursors in statistical ENSO models via the integration of the upper ocean heat content or the incorporation of anomalies of the 20°C isotherm. In this way the propagation feature of the anomalies is not considered, and no direct connection is made between the first anomalous patterns and the occurrence of a warm event. Hence, the predictive potential of the incipient warming in the western Pacific is not harnessed. Thus, the work presented in the dissertation provides implications for the possibility to improve the long-lead capabilities of other models. The definition of ENSO predictors at specific depths and regions in the ocean and atmosphere requires the reliable surface and subsurface measurements of various climate variables. Regular measurements have only begun with the satellite era in the 1980s, and with the placement of an observation system after the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Program (1985-1994). Forecasts with the model developed here substantially improve after 1994, and the change is distinct for the long-lead forecasts that rely on good-quality subsurface information about the ocean thermal structure. Therefore, the higher temporal and spatial resolution data sets of key variables are now long enough for statistical forecasting models to make better use of. The practical utility of multi-year forecasts is also explored. A well established link exists between ENSO and local climate in the coastal areas of Ecuador. Following El Niño is a warmer surface temperature and enhanced precipitation. These two variables control the dynamics of mosquito population, and in this way affect the incidence of dengue. An experiment is performed where long-lead forecasts of El Niño are used within a dengue model and the prospects for developing an early warning system is investigated.
Download or read book El Ni o Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Download or read book Forecasting El Ni o Southern Oscillation ENSO Events a Neural Network Approach written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting El Ni o Southern Oscillation ENSO Events written by Fredolin Tajudin Tangang and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Learning to Predict Climate Variations Associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1997-01-12 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The TOGA (Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere) Program was designed to study short-term climate variations. A 10-year international program, TOGA made El Nino a household word. This book chronicles the cooperative efforts of oceanographers and meteorologists, several U.S. government agencies, many other nations, and international scientific organizations to study El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes the progression from being unable to detect the development of large climate variations to being able to make and use rudimentary climate predictions, especially for some tropical countries. It examines the development of the TOGA Program, evaluates its accomplishments, describes U.S. participation in the program, and makes general recommendations for developing better understanding and predictions of climate variations on seasonal to interannual time scales.
Download or read book An Introduction to the Dynamics of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation written by Allan J. Clarke and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2008-01-28 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many scientists either working on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) problem or its many applications have not been trained in both the equatorial ocean and atmospheric dynamics necessary to understand it. This book seeks to overcome this difficulty by providing a step by step introduction to ENSO, helping the upper level graduate student or research scientist to learn quickly the ENSO basics and be up to date with the latest ENSO research. The text assumes that the reader has a knowledge of the equations of fluid mechanics on a rotating earth and emphasizes the observations and simple physical explanations of them. Following a history of ENSO and a discussion of ENSO observations in Chapters 1 and 2, Chapters 3-5 consider relevant equatorial ocean dynamics, Chapters 6 and 9 relevant atmospheric dynamics, and Chapters 7 and 8 the main paradigms for how the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere couple together to produce ENSO. Chapter 8 also discusses the old mystery of why ENSO tends to be locked in phase with the seasonal cycle. Successful dynamical and statistical approaches to ENSO prediction are discussed in Chapters 10 and 11 while Chapter 12 concludes the book with examples of how ENSO influences marine and bird life. - Quick reference guide and step by step introduction to El Niño/Southern Oscillation dynamics - Keep informed and up to date on El Niño/Southern Oscillation research and how El Niño and the Southern Oscillation can be predicted - Understand how El Niño can affect marine and bird life
Download or read book El Ni o and the Southern Oscillation written by Henry F. Diaz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-11-09 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a recurrent feature of the climate in tropical regions. In this volume leading experts summarize information gained over the past decade concerning diverse aspects of ENSO, which have led to marked improvements in our ability to forecast its development months or seasons in advance. This volume compares ENSO's modern morphology and variability with its recent historic and prehistoric behaviour. It expands and updates Diaz and Markgraf's earlier volume El Niño: Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation (1992, Cambridge University Press). The volume will be of importance to a broad range of scientists in meteorology, oceanography, hydrology, geosciences, ecology, public health, emergency management response and mitigation, and decision-making. It will also be used as a supplementary textbook and reference source in graduate courses in environmental studies.
Download or read book El Ni o written by Henry F. Diaz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1992 with total page 510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 1993 book enhances our understanding of the mechanisms involved in the low frequency behavior of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Download or read book Indo Pacific Climate Variability and Predictability written by Swadhin Kumar Behera and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-12-09 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book aims to compile some of the important results from the latest research in climate variation and prediction studies with a focus on the role of the ocean, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Several new modes of ocean-atmosphere climate variations have been discovered in the last decade, and the advance of climate models have made it possible to predict some of these modes several seasons ahead. This has improved the society's ability to use model predictions to mitigate climate disaster risks. Leading experts in the field were invited to contribute to this book in order to compile a comprehensive review for the benefit of researchers as well as general readers interested in the subject."--
Download or read book The Palgrave Handbook of Critical Physical Geography written by Rebecca Lave and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-04-04 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook is recognition of the need to better integrate physical and human geography. It combines a collection of work and research within the new field of Critical Physical Geography, which gives critical attention to relations of social power with deep knowledge of a particular field of biophysical science. Critical Physical Geography research accords careful attention to biophysical landscapes and the power relations that have increasingly come to shape them, and to the politics of environmental science and the role of biophysical inquiry in promoting social and environmental justice. The Palgrave Handbook of Critical Physical Geography lays out the scope and guiding principles of Critical Physical Geography research. It presents a carefully selected set of empirical work, demonstrating the range and intellectual strength of existing integrative work in geography research. This handbook is the first of its kind to cover this emerging discipline and will be of significant interest to students and academics across the fields of geography, the environment and sustainability.
Download or read book The El Ni o Southern Oscillation Phenomenon written by Edward S. Sarachik and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-03-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many climatic extremes around the globe, such as severe droughts and floods, can be attributed to the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific sea surface, termed the El Niño or Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Advances in our understanding of ENSO, in which Edward S. Sarachik and Mark A. Cane have been key participants, have led to marked improvements in our ability to predict its development months or seasons, allowing adaptation to global impacts. This book introduces basic concepts and builds to more detailed theoretical treatments. Chapters on the structure and dynamics of the tropical ocean and atmosphere place ENSO in a broader observational and theoretical context. Chapters on ENSO prediction, past and future, and impacts, introduce broader implications of the phenomenon. This book provides an introduction to all aspects of this most important mode of global climate variability, for research workers and students of all levels in climate science, oceanography and related fields.
Download or read book The El Ni o Southern Oscillation Phenomenon written by Edward S. Sarachik and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-18 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many climatic extremes around the globe, such as severe droughts and floods, can be attributed to the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific sea surface, termed the El Niño or Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Advances in our understanding of ENSO, in which Edward S. Sarachik and Mark A. Cane have been key participants, have led to marked improvements in our ability to predict its development months or seasons, allowing adaptation to global impacts. This book introduces basic concepts and builds to more detailed theoretical treatments. Chapters on the structure and dynamics of the tropical ocean and atmosphere place ENSO in a broader observational and theoretical context. Chapters on ENSO prediction, past and future, and impacts, introduce broader implications of the phenomenon. This book provides an introduction to all aspects of this most important mode of global climate variability, for research workers and students of all levels in climate science, oceanography and related fields.
Download or read book International Forum on Forecasting El Ni o Executive summary written by and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Climate Extremes written by S.-Y. Simon Wang and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-06-15 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although we are seeing more weather and climate extremes, individual extreme events are very diverse and generalization of trends is difficult. For example, mid-latitude and subtropical climate extremes such as heat waves, hurricanes and droughts have increased, and could have been caused by processes including arctic amplification, jet stream meandering, and tropical expansion. This volume documents various climate extreme events and associated changes that have been analyzed through diagnostics, modeling, and statistical approaches. The identification of patterns and mechanisms can aid the prediction of future extreme events. Volume highlights include: Compilation of processes and mechanisms unique to individual weather and climate extreme events Discussion of climate model performance in terms of simulating high-impact weather and climate extremes Summary of various existing theories, including controversial ones, on how climate extremes will continue to become stronger and more frequent Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms is a valuable resource for scientists and graduate students in the fields of geophysics, climate physics, natural hazards, and environmental science. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/how-does-changing-climate-bring-more-extreme-events
Download or read book El Ni o Southern Oscillation Diversity in a Changing Climate written by Chen Chen and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Here three aspects are addressed including the source/limit of predictability, time range and uncertainty. Approaches are combined including linear inverse modeling, singular vector analysis and probabilistic measure. The results show that two similar initial conditions with western Pacific SST warming anomalies may finally develop to either CPEN or EPEN. The equatorial Pacific subsurface evolution is important to tell the final outcome. Restricted by the chaotic property, the prediction horizon appears to be ~4 months before CPEN and ~7 months before EPEN. A flavor prediction model using data's transition probabilities is introduced as a new benchmark for probabilistic prediction.
