Download or read book A Multivariate Distance Nonlinear Causality Test Based on Partial Distance Correlation written by Germán G. Creamer and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a multivariate distance nonlinear causality test (MDNC) using the partial distance correlation in a time series framework. Partial distance correlation as an extension of the Brownian distance correlation calculates the distance correlation between random vectors X and Y controlling for a random vector Z. Our test can detect nonlinear lagged relationships between time series, and when integrated with machine learning methods it can improve the forecasting power. We apply our method as a feature selection procedure and combine it with the support vector machine and random forests algorithms to study the forecast of the main energy financial time series (oil, coal, and natural gas futures). It shows substantial improvement in forecasting the fuel energy time series in comparison to the classical Granger causality method in time series.
Download or read book Machine Learning and AI in Finance written by German Creamer and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-04-05 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The significant amount of information available in any field requires a systematic and analytical approach to select the most critical information and anticipate major events. During the last decade, the world has witnessed a rapid expansion of applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms to an increasingly broad range of financial markets and problems. Machine learning and AI algorithms facilitate this process understanding, modelling and forecasting the behaviour of the most relevant financial variables. The main contribution of this book is the presentation of new theoretical and applied AI perspectives to find solutions to unsolved finance questions. This volume proposes an optimal model for the volatility smile, for modelling high-frequency liquidity demand and supply and for the simulation of market microstructure features. Other new AI developments explored in this book includes building a universal model for a large number of stocks, developing predictive models based on the average price of the crowd, forecasting the stock price using the attention mechanism in a neural network, clustering multivariate time series into different market states, proposing a multivariate distance nonlinear causality test and filtering out false investment strategies with an unsupervised learning algorithm. Machine Learning and AI in Finance explores the most recent advances in the application of innovative machine learning and artificial intelligence models to predict financial time series, to simulate the structure of the financial markets, to explore nonlinear causality models, to test investment strategies and to price financial options. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of the Quantitative Finance journal.
Download or read book A Distance Approach to Nonlinear Multivariate Analysis written by Jacqueline Meulman and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Distance based Variety of Nonlinear Multivariate Data Analysis Including Weights for Objects and Variables written by Jacques J. F. Commandeur and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Multivariate Linear and Non Linear Causality Tests written by Zhidong Bai and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The traditional linear Granger test has been widely used to examine the linear causality among several time series in bivariate settings as well as multivariate settings. Hiemstra and Jones (1994) develop a nonlinear Granger causality test in a bivariate setting to investigate the nonlinear causality between stock prices and trading volume. In this paper, we first discuss linear causality tests in multivariate settings and thereafter develop a non-linear causality test in multivariate settings.
Download or read book Landscape Ecological Analysis written by Jeffrey M. Klopatek and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth in the field of landscape ecology has included the development of methods and results that can be applied to an impressive range of environmental issues. This book addresses a broad spectrum of political, theoretical and applied aspects that often arise in the design and execution of landscape studies. The concepts of geographical scale and hierarchy arising within the confines of landscape ecology are examined, and a series of techniques are presented to address problems in spatial and temporal analysis. This book will provide the reader with a current perspective on this rapidly evolving science.
Download or read book Elements of Causal Inference written by Jonas Peters and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-11-29 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning. The mathematization of causality is a relatively recent development, and has become increasingly important in data science and machine learning. This book offers a self-contained and concise introduction to causal models and how to learn them from data. After explaining the need for causal models and discussing some of the principles underlying causal inference, the book teaches readers how to use causal models: how to compute intervention distributions, how to infer causal models from observational and interventional data, and how causal ideas could be exploited for classical machine learning problems. All of these topics are discussed first in terms of two variables and then in the more general multivariate case. The bivariate case turns out to be a particularly hard problem for causal learning because there are no conditional independences as used by classical methods for solving multivariate cases. The authors consider analyzing statistical asymmetries between cause and effect to be highly instructive, and they report on their decade of intensive research into this problem. The book is accessible to readers with a background in machine learning or statistics, and can be used in graduate courses or as a reference for researchers. The text includes code snippets that can be copied and pasted, exercises, and an appendix with a summary of the most important technical concepts.
Download or read book Causality in Time Series Challenges in Machine Learning written by Florin Popescu and published by . This book was released on 2013-06 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume in the Challenges in Machine Learning series gathers papers from the Mini Symposium on Causality in Time Series, which was part of the Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS) confernce in 2009 in Vancouver, Canada. These papers present state-of-the-art research in time-series causality to the machine learning community, unifying methodological interests in the various communities that require such inference.
Download or read book Topics In Nonlinear Time Series Analysis With Implications For Eeg Analysis written by Andreas Galka and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2000-02-18 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a thorough review of a class of powerful algorithms for the numerical analysis of complex time series data which were obtained from dynamical systems. These algorithms are based on the concept of state space representations of the underlying dynamics, as introduced by nonlinear dynamics. In particular, current algorithms for state space reconstruction, correlation dimension estimation, testing for determinism and surrogate data testing are presented — algorithms which have been playing a central role in the investigation of deterministic chaos and related phenomena since 1980. Special emphasis is given to the much-disputed issue whether these algorithms can be successfully employed for the analysis of the human electroencephalogram.
Download or read book Applied Multivariate Research written by Lawrence S. Meyers and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2013 with total page 1105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For me the comprehensive nature of the text is most important - even when I don't cover topics in class students gain value by being able to read about cluster analysis or ROC analysis in enough detail that they can conduct their own analyses. Students appreciate the integration with SPSS. There is an appropriate balance of "practice" and background so that students learn what they need to know about the techniques but also learn how to implement and interpret the analysis.
Download or read book Interpretable Machine Learning written by Christoph Molnar and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2020 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.
Download or read book Doing Research in Political Science written by Paul Pennings and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2005-11-11 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an immensely helpful book for students starting their own research... an excellent introduction to the comparative method giving an authoritative overview over the research process - Klaus Armingeon, University of Bern Doing Research in Political Science is the book for mastering the comparative method in all the social sciences - Jan-Erik Lane, University of Geneva This book has established itself as a concise and well-readable text on comparative methods and statistics in political science I...strongly recommend it. - Dirk Berg-Schlosser, Philipps-University Marburg This thoroughly revised edition of the popular textbook offers an accessible but comprehensive introduction to comparative research methods and statistics for students of political science. Clearly organized around three parts, the text introduces the main theories and methodologies used in the discipline. Part 1 frames the comparative approach within the methodological framework of the political and social sciences. Part 2 introduces basic descriptive and inferential statistical methods as well as more advanced multivariate methods used in quantitative political analysis. Part 3 applies the methods and techniques of Parts 1 & 2 to research questions drawn from contemporary themes and issues in political science. Incorporating practice exercises, ideas for further reading and summary questions throughout, Doing Research in Political Science provides an invaluable step-by-step guide for students and researchers in political science, comparative politics and empirical political analysis.
Download or read book Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis written by Lutz Kilian and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-23 with total page 757 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the econometric foundations of structural vector autoregressive modeling, as used in empirical macroeconomics, finance, and related fields.
Download or read book Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series written by Timo Teräsvirta and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2010-12-16 with total page 592 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains an extensive up-to-date overview of nonlinear time series models and their application to modelling economic relationships. It considers nonlinear models in stationary and nonstationary frameworks, and both parametric and nonparametric models are discussed. The book contains examples of nonlinear models in economic theory and presents the most common nonlinear time series models. Importantly, it shows the reader how to apply these models in practice. For thispurpose, the building of various nonlinear models with its three stages of model building: specification, estimation and evaluation, is discussed in detail and is illustrated by several examples involving both economic and non-economic data. Since estimation of nonlinear time series models is carried outusing numerical algorithms, the book contains a chapter on estimating parametric nonlinear models and another on estimating nonparametric ones.Forecasting is a major reason for building time series models, linear or nonlinear. The book contains a discussion on forecasting with nonlinear models, both parametric and nonparametric, and considers numerical techniques necessary for computing multi-period forecasts from them. The main focus of the book is on models of the conditional mean, but models of the conditional variance, mainly those of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, receive attention as well. A separate chapter isdevoted to state space models. As a whole, the book is an indispensable tool for researchers interested in nonlinear time series and is also suitable for teaching courses in econometrics and time series analysis.
Download or read book Causal Inference in Statistics written by Judea Pearl and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-25 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CAUSAL INFERENCE IN STATISTICS A Primer Causality is central to the understanding and use of data. Without an understanding of cause–effect relationships, we cannot use data to answer questions as basic as "Does this treatment harm or help patients?" But though hundreds of introductory texts are available on statistical methods of data analysis, until now, no beginner-level book has been written about the exploding arsenal of methods that can tease causal information from data. Causal Inference in Statistics fills that gap. Using simple examples and plain language, the book lays out how to define causal parameters; the assumptions necessary to estimate causal parameters in a variety of situations; how to express those assumptions mathematically; whether those assumptions have testable implications; how to predict the effects of interventions; and how to reason counterfactually. These are the foundational tools that any student of statistics needs to acquire in order to use statistical methods to answer causal questions of interest. This book is accessible to anyone with an interest in interpreting data, from undergraduates, professors, researchers, or to the interested layperson. Examples are drawn from a wide variety of fields, including medicine, public policy, and law; a brief introduction to probability and statistics is provided for the uninitiated; and each chapter comes with study questions to reinforce the readers understanding.
Download or read book Handbook of Labor Economics written by Orley Ashenfelter and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1999-11-18 with total page 800 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to the continually evolving field of labour economics.
Download or read book Handbook of Time Series Analysis written by Björn Schelter and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-12-13 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook provides an up-to-date survey of current research topics and applications of time series analysis methods written by leading experts in their fields. It covers recent developments in univariate as well as bivariate and multivariate time series analysis techniques ranging from physics' to life sciences' applications. Each chapter comprises both methodological aspects and applications to real world complex systems, such as the human brain or Earth's climate. Covering an exceptionally broad spectrum of topics, beginners, experts and practitioners who seek to understand the latest developments will profit from this handbook.
