Download or read book A Methodology for the Analysis and Prediction of Air Force Enlisted Aircraft Maintenance Personnel Retention Rates Using Economic Statistics written by Peter D. Lommen and published by . This book was released on 1999-09-01 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of certain national economic indicators on enlisted aircraft maintenance personnel retention rates. To fulfill this purpose, this study builds a linear regression equation that can predict the retention rate using the civilian unemployment rate and the index of 11 leading economic indicators as the independent variables. Journal literature and economic texts were reviewed to identify the indicators as good predictors for changes in employee turnover. The method of linear regression was used to build the model needed to predict the changes in the retention rate. The equation developed with this technique in the present research may help the Air Force Personnel Center predict future enlisted retention rate changes. AFPC's task of keeping a steady force has a central need of knowing the number of personnel that will be staying and leaving the force. The results of this study show a strong relationship between the future retention rate of the enlisted aircraft maintenance force and the unemployment rate and the index of 11 leading indicators.
Download or read book Maintaining the Balance Between Manpower Skill Levels and PERSTEMPO written by Raymond E. Conley and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Air Force units have found differences between authorized and actual numbers of personnel, partly because of deployments. Using historical and other data and interviews, the authors assessed the wing-level effects of these disparities including skill levels and personnel tempo. The recommendations include improvements in manpower bookkeeping and requirement determination, use of dynamic simulation models, and implementation of suitable metrics.
Download or read book A Methodology for the Analysis and Prediction of Air Force Officer Retention Rates written by Mark A. Basalla and published by . This book was released on 1996-03-01 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of certain national economic conditions and certain Air Force related conditions on officer retention rates and to build, verify, and validate a multivariate linear regression model to be used by Air Force personnel management officials that will predict officer retention rates for rated and non-rated line officers aggregated by Yeargroups and AFSC groups. Previous retention models were reviewed to study possible predictors and methodologies.
Download or read book Setting Requirements for Maintenance Manpower in the U S Air Force written by Carl Johan Dahlman and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2002 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decade, the United States Air Force has faced a variety of unforeseen challenges. On the one hand, a significant portion of the force has been engaged in a range of contingency as well as peacekeeping operations. On the other hand, a once-robust economy led many to leave the force in unexpected numbers during the 1990s. The result has been a mismatch between Air Force taskings and available personnel. This report outlines the findings of a study whose objective was twofold: first, to review the methodology that the Air Force uses to determine active-duty enlisted manpower requirements in aircraft maintenance; and second, to investigate whether these requirements and their resulting authorizations have been underestimated. Toward this goal, the study assesses the Logistics Composite Model (LCOM), a statistical simulation model that the Air Force uses to gauge direct maintenance man-hours, as well as the AirForce-wide regulations that establish ceilings on available hours. The report concludes that maintenance manpower requirements are in fact underestimated in the Air Force, largely because the service's manpower processes do not adequately account for all the tasks that maintainers in the field must undertake. Accordingly, the report recommends that Air Force policies and analytical tools be reexamined and appropriately refined to better reflect maintenance manpower needs.
Download or read book Retention of Enlisted Maintenance Logistics and Munitions Personnel written by Albert A. Robbert and published by . This book was released on 2022-01-05 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this report, the authors explore whether individual characteristics, economic and geographic factors, and the new Blended Retirement System can provide new insights into what predicts retention of maintenance, logistics, and munitions personnel.
Download or read book Manpower a Model of Tactical Aircraft Maintenance Personnel Requirements Overview of model development and application written by William Smith Furry and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 1979 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes MANPOWER, a computer model for predicting the total force base-level maintenance personnel requirements of prospective aircraft in the USAF Tactical Air Command. The model is designed to be used early in the acquisition process when it is desirable to understand the probable total maintenance personnel requirements of proposed weapon systems. MANPOWER requires inputs concerning mission types, sortie rates, sortie lengths, deployment patterns, squadron size, peacetime base sizes, and maintenance workload. The workload can be expressed as maintenance manhours per flying hour or, if more information is available, in terms of mean-time-between-failures and mean-time-to-repair at the second digit work unit code level. Model output includes estimates of personnel requirements for the total force, for individual base size/deployment patterns, for maintenance squadrons, for officers and enlisted personnel, for overhead and supervision, and for major individual shops and groups of work centers.
Download or read book Air Force Journal of Logistics written by and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Determining Requirements for Aircraft Maintenance Personnel Could be Improved written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences written by Wade H. Shafer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences was first conceived, published, and disseminated by the Center for Information and Numerical Data Analysis and Synthesis (CINDAS) * at Purdue University in 1 957, starting its coverage of theses with the academic year 1955. Beginning with Volume 13, the printing and dissemination phases of the activity were transferred to University Microfilms/Xerox of Ann Arbor, Michigan, with the thought that such an arrangement would be more beneficial to the academic and general scientific and technical community. After five years of this joint undertaking we had concluded that it was in the interest of all con cerned if the printing and distribution of the volumes were handled by an interna tional publishing house to assure improved service and broader dissemination. Hence, starting with Volume 18, Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences has been disseminated on a worldwide basis by Plenum Publishing Cor poration of New York, and in the same year the coverage was broadened to include Canadian universities. All back issues can also be ordered from Plenum. We have reported in Volume 29 (thesis year 1984) a total of 12,637 theses titles from 23 Canadian and 202 United States universities. We are sure that this broader base for these titles reported will greatly enhance the value of this important annual reference work. While Volume 29 reports theses submitted in 1984, on occasion, certain univer sities do report theses submitted in previous years but not reported at the time.
Download or read book Military Personnel written by United States. Government Accountability Office and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Air Force aircraft maintainers are responsible for ensuring that the Air Force’s aircraft are operationally ready and safe for its aviators—duties critical to successfully executing its national security mission. With more than 100,000 maintainers across the Air Force’s active and reserve components, according to Air Force officials, aircraft maintenance is the Air Force’s largest enlisted career field— accounting for about a quarter of its active duty enlisted personnel. The conference report accompanying the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018 included a provision for GAO to review the adequacy of the Air Force’s aircraft maintainer workforce. This report assesses the extent to which, from fiscal years 2010 through 2017, the Air Force (1) had aircraft maintainer staffing gaps, (2) experienced attrition of maintainers and took steps to help retain maintainers, and (3) met its annual technical school completion rate goals for maintainers. GAO analyzed aircraft maintainer staffing levels, loss and reenlistment rates, and technical school completion rates from fiscal years 2010-2017, the most recent data available; conducted five non-generalizable discussion groups with maintainers; and interviewed aviation industry, Department of Defense, and Air Force officials. What GAO Recommends GAO recommends that the Air Force develop annual retention goals and a retention strategy for aircraft maintainers. The Air Force concurred with both recommendations.
Download or read book The Accuracy of Simple Enlisted Force Forecasts written by David Waltz Grissmer and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Note presents and analysis of the historical accuracy with which enlisted force manpower strengths can be forecast using simple and widely used modeling assumptions. The accuracy of one-, three-, and five-year forecasts is presented for enlisted personnel groups from all four military services for fiscal years 1971 through 1980. Estimating the accuracy of forecasts and analyzing the pattern of errors allow an assessment of the need for more sophisticated techniques, help in developing a strategy for disaggregating enlisted groups when forecasting, and form a basis for the design of an improved enlisted forecasting system. The author finds that the models tested provide reasonably accurate short-term forecasts of the level and structure of enlisted personnel strength. However, long-term forecasts show very large errors for certain enlisted groups. The error pattern, which is stable across the services, shows a distinct structure when estimated by year of service. Keywords: Enlisted personnel; Forecasting; Mathematical models.
Download or read book Turnover of Air Force Enlisted Aircraft Maintenance Personnel written by Joseph W. Putt and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A current problem facing Air Force managers is the retention of qualified enlisted aircraft maintenance personnel. Little research has been directed toward developing a conceptual framework of voluntary turnover of Air Force personnel. The present research developed a conceptual model of turnover based on a synthesis of theoretical frameworks proposed in the sociological and industrial psychological literature. The model was then tested using existing data extracted from the 1977 Air Force Quality of Life survey. The study focused on male enlisted aircraft maintenance personnel from the 32XXX, 42XXX, and 43XXX career fields with two to nine years of service. The basic conceptual structure of the model was confirmed with one modification, which was incorporated in a revised conceptual model. The function of intraorganizational communication was found to be significantly different from the originally hypothesized relationship. In addition, perceived opportunity for civilian employment was confirmed as a significant intervening variable between satisfaction and expressed career intent. Recommendations are made for the development of a new survey instrument with which to further develop the model as an aid in personnel policy decisions. (Author).
Download or read book Estimating Military Personnel Retention Rates written by Glenn A. Gotz and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Dynamic Econometric Retention Model (DERM) is designed for studying the effects of alternative compensation policies on the retention behavior of Air Force officers, including the Uniformed Services Retirement Modernization Act, the President's Commission on Military Compensation, and the Uniformed Services Retirement Benefits Act. DERM is a model of sequential behavior containing the appropriate econometric method for estimating retention rate. The econometric method is a maximum likelihood procedure endogenously determined by the specification of the behavioral model. It differs from earlier approaches in that it explicitly considers behavioral effects flowing from decomposing the disturbance term into permanent and transitory components. An implication of DERM is that retention rates depend both on prospective future returns to remaining in the military and on past occurrences. If this is correct, then simple regression models should overpredict the retention gains of proposed compensation policies, exactly what happens in two recent reenlistment studies using regression analysis.
Download or read book A Methodology for Long Term Forecasts of Air Force Pilot Retention Rates A Management Perspective written by Bruce A. Guzowski and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Personnel planners in various Air Force agencies use models, among other things, to aid them in forecasting pilot retention rates. This Theses attempted to forecast retention rates three years ahead with the use of multiple regression analysis techniques. Such models can be of use of Air Force leaders to develop proactive policies and programs to combat poor retention forecasts. Economically quantifiable variables were primarily used in the modeling effort. However, some year groups could not be adequately explained with the use of economic variables alone. The models for year groups eight, twelve, and thirteen used the retention rates of 'peer groups' to assist in explaining their own retention rates. All models were subjected to common internal tests associated with linear regression. External validity was verified by the use of a withheld data set. Forecasts were made for Fiscal Years 90, 91, and 92, using independent variable data from 1987, 1988, and 1989, respectively. All tests and forecasts were thoroughly documented. The practical and policy implications of these forecasts were discussed, and some thoughts about possible policies and programs to increase retention were advanced. Improvements to further the utility of these models were suggested. (KR).
Download or read book A Methodology for Forecasting Voluntary Retention Rates for Air Force Pilots written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this study is to develop a model that more accurately forecasts voluntary retention rates in the short term for Air Force pilots. Specifically, the model consists of appropriate and available predictors used to compute one year ahead forecasts of voluntary retention rates for Air Force pilots with seven through eleven years of service. The types of predictors collected for study were indicators of the strength of the economy, indicators of the growth of the airline industry, and indicators of the relative wage difference between the military and the civilian labor force. Classical regression analysis was used to predict the pilot retention rates on the basis of the predictor variables studied. A logarithmic transform of the dependent variable was used to stabilize the variance of the the error terms. The criteria established for selecting the best model were model performance, prediction potential, and explanatory significance. The best model included the following independent variables: indicator variables for the year of service groups, a variable for the annual number of new airline pilot hires, the unemployment rate lagged one year, and a pay compensation measure lagged one year. Thus, estimates were required only for the airline hires predictor in order to forecast pilot retention rates. Validation tests were performed on the best model for years 1986 and 1987. In each test, the 90 percent prediction intervals covered the actual pilot retention rate for each year of service group. Among the recommendations provided to improve the accuracy of the pilot retention rate forecasts was to improve the accuracy of the airline hire forecasts and to find other significant, leading indicators of pilot retention.
Download or read book Retention of Air Force Enlisted Personnel An Empirical Examination written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents a multiyear effort to quantify the relationship between the national labor economy and retention of experienced personnel in the Air Force. A general labor-theory model is presented to explain total force retention. The model is then extended to describe retention in specific career fields. Probit equations are developed to predict individual retention decision across first, second, and career term retention decision points within each career field. The empirical results generally support hypotheses concerning direction and strength of impact of demographic, policy, bonus, and wage variables with considerable variation being noted across career fields. Future research issues are also proposed. Keywords include: economic retention model; enlisted retention model; longitudinal database; probit model; retention analysis.
Download or read book Air Force Enlisted Personnel Retention Accession Model written by Thomas R. Saving and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report presents the methods of analysis and results of an effort designed to develop a methodology for explaining Air Force accessions and retentions. The analysis was conducted in three stages. First, the life-cycle model of the enlistment decision originally developed in a previous contract was extended and clarified. Second, a new data set was developed. These data are described extensively and plotted to reveal its relation to significant institutional changes that occurred over the 1957 to 1978 period. The data were then used to estimate accession supply equations for each sex, race, and AFQT category. Third, two new theoretical developments are presented. The first of these develops a model of the enlisted force by skill group. The second utilizes the theory of economic dynamics to simulate the adjustments of the enlisted force to changes in pertinent variables. (Author).
