Download or read book A Methodology for Forecasting Voluntary Retention Rates for Air Force Pilots written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this study is to develop a model that more accurately forecasts voluntary retention rates in the short term for Air Force pilots. Specifically, the model consists of appropriate and available predictors used to compute one year ahead forecasts of voluntary retention rates for Air Force pilots with seven through eleven years of service. The types of predictors collected for study were indicators of the strength of the economy, indicators of the growth of the airline industry, and indicators of the relative wage difference between the military and the civilian labor force. Classical regression analysis was used to predict the pilot retention rates on the basis of the predictor variables studied. A logarithmic transform of the dependent variable was used to stabilize the variance of the the error terms. The criteria established for selecting the best model were model performance, prediction potential, and explanatory significance. The best model included the following independent variables: indicator variables for the year of service groups, a variable for the annual number of new airline pilot hires, the unemployment rate lagged one year, and a pay compensation measure lagged one year. Thus, estimates were required only for the airline hires predictor in order to forecast pilot retention rates. Validation tests were performed on the best model for years 1986 and 1987. In each test, the 90 percent prediction intervals covered the actual pilot retention rate for each year of service group. Among the recommendations provided to improve the accuracy of the pilot retention rate forecasts was to improve the accuracy of the airline hire forecasts and to find other significant, leading indicators of pilot retention.
Download or read book A Methodology for Forecasting Voluntary Retention Rates for Air Force Pilots written by James R. Simpson (CAPT, USAF.) and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Methodology for Forecasting Voluntary Retention Rates for Air Force Pilots written by James R. Simpson and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Methodology for Long Term Forecasts of Air Force Pilot Retention Rates A Management Perspective written by Bruce A. Guzowski and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Personnel planners in various Air Force agencies use models, among other things, to aid them in forecasting pilot retention rates. This Theses attempted to forecast retention rates three years ahead with the use of multiple regression analysis techniques. Such models can be of use of Air Force leaders to develop proactive policies and programs to combat poor retention forecasts. Economically quantifiable variables were primarily used in the modeling effort. However, some year groups could not be adequately explained with the use of economic variables alone. The models for year groups eight, twelve, and thirteen used the retention rates of 'peer groups' to assist in explaining their own retention rates. All models were subjected to common internal tests associated with linear regression. External validity was verified by the use of a withheld data set. Forecasts were made for Fiscal Years 90, 91, and 92, using independent variable data from 1987, 1988, and 1989, respectively. All tests and forecasts were thoroughly documented. The practical and policy implications of these forecasts were discussed, and some thoughts about possible policies and programs to increase retention were advanced. Improvements to further the utility of these models were suggested. (KR).
Download or read book A Methodology for Long term Forecasts of Air Force Pilot Retention Rates written by Bruce A. Guzowski (MAJ, USAF.) and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Quarterly Supplement to the Annual Department of Defense Bibliography of Logistics Studies and Related Documents written by United States. Defense Logistics Studies Information Exchange and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences written by Wade H. Shafer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences was first conceived, published, and disseminated by the Center for Information and Numerical Data Analysis and Synthesis (CINDAS) * at Purdue University in 1 957, starting its coverage of theses with the academic year 1955. Beginning with Volume 13, the printing and dissemination phases of the activity were transferred to University Microfilms/Xerox of Ann Arbor, Michigan, with the thought that such an arrangement would be more beneficial to the academic and general scientific and technical community. After five years of this joint undertaking we had concluded that it was in the interest of all con cerned if the printing and distribution of the volumes were handled by an interna tional publishing house to assure improved service and broader dissemination. Hence, starting with Volume 18, Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences has been disseminated on a worldwide basis by Plenum Publishing Cor poration of New York, and in the same year the coverage was broadened to include Canadian universities. All back issues can also be ordered from Plenum. We have reported in Volume 32 (thesis year 1987) a total of 12,483 theses titles from 22 Canadian and 176 United States universities. We are sure that this broader base for these titles reported will greatly enhance the value of this important annual reference work. While Volume 32 reports theses submitted in 1987, on occasion, certain univer sities do report theses submitted in previous years but not reported at the time.
Download or read book Forecasting Demand for Civilian Pilots written by Justin W. Collup and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Technical Reports Awareness Circular TRAC written by and published by . This book was released on 1988-05 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Methodology for the Analysis and Prediction of Air Force Enlisted Aircraft Maintenance Personnel Retention Rates Using Economic Statistics written by Peter D. Lommen and published by . This book was released on 1999-09-01 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of certain national economic indicators on enlisted aircraft maintenance personnel retention rates. To fulfill this purpose, this study builds a linear regression equation that can predict the retention rate using the civilian unemployment rate and the index of 11 leading economic indicators as the independent variables. Journal literature and economic texts were reviewed to identify the indicators as good predictors for changes in employee turnover. The method of linear regression was used to build the model needed to predict the changes in the retention rate. The equation developed with this technique in the present research may help the Air Force Personnel Center predict future enlisted retention rate changes. AFPC's task of keeping a steady force has a central need of knowing the number of personnel that will be staying and leaving the force. The results of this study show a strong relationship between the future retention rate of the enlisted aircraft maintenance force and the unemployment rate and the index of 11 leading indicators.
Download or read book Breaking the Change Barrier written by Paul M. Kavanaugh and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Several times in Air Force history, the service endured large numbers of pilot separations directly affecting organizational readiness and thereby national defense. A problem/solution research methodology using the organizational management theory of path dependence explored the implications of the corrective leadership decisions. Exit survey data from the 1970s, 1990s, and 2017 and the subsequent documented Air Force efforts to stem the exodus, when linearly charted, showed evidence of organizational lock-in. Past strategic personnel decisions affected by organizational self-reinforcing mechanisms prevented leadership from taking truly innovative measures to change the course and break the cycle of pilot exodus. The identification of organizational lock-in provides leaders a larger temporal frame of reference with which to make strategic decisions. One recommendation to remedy pilot exodus is to start the incentive process earlier in the career and prior to the final decision to separate. Path dependent analysis indicates all prior Air Force retention actions were reactionary. Preemptive action, and not solely monetary action, provides several benefits to both the Air Force and the individual pilot. The pilot gains increased quality of life satisfaction because of a greater sense of stability from the guaranteed various incentive options and personal involvement in the overall process. The Air Force can annually budget and forecast incentive requirements and personnel movements based on the earlier decisions of pilots. Secondary effects of this innovative change include increased commitment from pilots, increased quality of life for pilots, predictability for the Air Force, and retention of critical experience."--Abstract.
Download or read book Government Reports Announcements Index written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 1132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Dynamic Retention Model for Air Force Officers written by Glenn A. Gotz and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 1984 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes the theory and methodology for estimating the parameters of a dynamic retention model for Air Force officers. The model was designed to estimate voluntary retention rates under a broad range of compensation, retirement, and personnel policies. It is a decisions model of the decisionmaking process of individuals making stay/leave decisions over time in an uncertain environment, which allows it to predict policy changes that have no historical analogues. The report presents the theory and estimated parameters of the model, compares actual retention rates and those predicted by the model, and two competing models, and examines five illustrative changes in compensation policies. (Author).
Download or read book The Dynamic Retention Model for Air Force Officers written by Michael G. Mattock and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Air Force (USAF) needs accurate models to develop retention policies that ensure the force has a sufficient number of experienced officers to meet current and future requirements. The dynamic retention model (DRM) can be used to take into account the effect of the availability of multi-year contracts to certain classes of Air Force officers. Unlike the annualized cost of leaving (ACOL) model long used by researchers working on USAF personnel issues, the DRM takes into account the value an officer may place on future career flexibility in the face of uncertainty, and thus is particularly well suited to examining the effect of bonus programs that have service commitments, such as the Aviator Continuation Pay (ACP) program, which pays an annual bonus to pilots and certain groups of navigators and air battle managers who commit to extend their service for specified numbers of years or to a specified length of service.
Download or read book A Methodology for the Analysis and Prediction of Air Force Officer Retention Rates written by Mark A. Basalla and published by . This book was released on 1996-03-01 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of certain national economic conditions and certain Air Force related conditions on officer retention rates and to build, verify, and validate a multivariate linear regression model to be used by Air Force personnel management officials that will predict officer retention rates for rated and non-rated line officers aggregated by Yeargroups and AFSC groups. Previous retention models were reviewed to study possible predictors and methodologies.
Download or read book Administration Management written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Air Force Pilot Retention written by Stephen P. Barrows and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
