Download or read book A Hidden Markov Chain Model for the Term Structure of Bond Credit Risk Spreads written by Lyn C. Thomas and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a Markov chain model for the term structure and credit risk spreads of bond prices. It allows dependency between the stochastic process modeling the interest rate and the Markov chain process describing changes in the credit rating of the bonds by their mutual dependency on a hidden Markov chain, which can be thought of as describing the underlying economic conditions. The model also allows a new interpretation of risk premia used in previous approaches and also uses a linear programming approach to strip the bonds of their coupons in such a way as to guarantee there is no mis-pricing.
Download or read book A Hidden Markov Chain Model for the Term Structure of Bond Credit Risk Spreads written by Lyn C. Thomas and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads written by Robert A. Jarrow and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a Markov Model for the term structure of credit risk spreads. The model is based on Jarrow and Turnbull (1995) with the bankruptcy process following a discrete state space Markov chain in credit ratings. The parameters of this process are easily estimated using observable data. This model is useful for pricing and hedging corporate debt with imbedded options, for pricing and hedging OTC derivatives with counterparty risk, for pricing and hedging (foreign) government bonds subject to default risk (e.g. municipal bonds), for pricing and hedging credit derivatives, and for risk management.
Download or read book A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads written by Robert A. Jarrow and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Term Structure of Credit Spreads and the Economic Activity written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and B-rated corporate bonds in a doubly- stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables - indicators of real activity, inflation and financial conditions - as well as latent factors, as drivers of term structure dynamics. Our results point to three key roles played by macro factors in the term structure of spreads: they have a significant impact on the level, and particularly the slope, of the curves; they are largely responsible for variation in the prices of systematic risk; and speculative grade spreads exhibit greater sensitivity to macro shocks than high grade spreads. In addition to estimating risk-neutral default intensities, we provide estimates of physical default intensities using data on Moody's KMV EDFs"!as a forward-looking proxy for default risk. We find that the real and financial activity indicators, along with filtered estimates of the latent factors from our term structure model, explain a large portion of the variation in EDFs"!across time. Furthermore, measures of the price of default event risk implied by estimates of physical and risk-neutral intensities indicate that compensation for default event risk is countercyclical, varies widely across the cycle, and is higher on average and more variable for higher- rated bonds.
Download or read book Credit Risk Modeling Valuation and Hedging written by Tomasz R. Bielecki and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-01-22 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The motivation for the mathematical modeling studied in this text on developments in credit risk research is the bridging of the gap between mathematical theory of credit risk and the financial practice. Mathematical developments are covered thoroughly and give the structural and reduced-form approaches to credit risk modeling. Included is a detailed study of various arbitrage-free models of default term structures with several rating grades.
Download or read book Hidden Markov Models written by Ramaprasad Bhar and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-18 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Markov chains have increasingly become useful way of capturing stochastic nature of many economic and financial variables. Although the hidden Markov processes have been widely employed for some time in many engineering applications e.g. speech recognition, its effectiveness has now been recognized in areas of social science research as well. The main aim of Hidden Markov Models: Applications to Financial Economics is to make such techniques available to more researchers in financial economics. As such we only cover the necessary theoretical aspects in each chapter while focusing on real life applications using contemporary data mainly from OECD group of countries. The underlying assumption here is that the researchers in financial economics would be familiar with such application although empirical techniques would be more traditional econometrics. Keeping the application level in a more familiar level, we focus on the methodology based on hidden Markov processes. This will, we believe, help the reader to develop more in-depth understanding of the modeling issues thereby benefiting their future research.
Download or read book Discrete time Asset Pricing Models in Applied Stochastic Finance written by P. C. G. Vassiliou and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-03-01 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic finance and financial engineering have been rapidly expanding fields of science over the past four decades, mainly due to the success of sophisticated quantitative methodologies in helping professionals manage financial risks. In recent years, we have witnessed a tremendous acceleration in research efforts aimed at better comprehending, modeling and hedging this kind of risk. These two volumes aim to provide a foundation course on applied stochastic finance. They are designed for three groups of readers: firstly, students of various backgrounds seeking a core knowledge on the subject of stochastic finance; secondly financial analysts and practitioners in the investment, banking and insurance industries; and finally other professionals who are interested in learning advanced mathematical and stochastic methods, which are basic knowledge in many areas, through finance. Volume 1 starts with the introduction of the basic financial instruments and the fundamental principles of financial modeling and arbitrage valuation of derivatives. Next, we use the discrete-time binomial model to introduce all relevant concepts. The mathematical simplicity of the binomial model also provides us with the opportunity to introduce and discuss in depth concepts such as conditional expectations and martingales in discrete time. However, we do not expand beyond the needs of the stochastic finance framework. Numerous examples, each highlighted and isolated from the text for easy reference and identification, are included. The book concludes with the use of the binomial model to introduce interest rate models and the use of the Markov chain model to introduce credit risk. This volume is designed in such a way that, among other uses, makes it useful as an undergraduate course.
Download or read book Rethinking Valuation and Pricing Models written by Carsten Wehn and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2012-12-17 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is widely acknowledged that many financial modelling techniques failed during the financial crisis, and in our post-crisis environment many techniques are being reconsidered. This single volume provides a guide to lessons learned for practitioners and a reference for academics. Including reviews of traditional approaches, real examples, and case studies, contributors consider portfolio theory; methods for valuing equities and equity derivatives, interest rate derivatives, and hybrid products; and techniques for calculating risks and implementing investment strategies. Describing new approaches without losing sight of their classical antecedents, this collection of original articles presents a timely perspective on our post-crisis paradigm. - Highlights pre-crisis best classical practices, identifies post-crisis key issues, and examines emerging approaches to solving those issues - Singles out key factors one must consider when valuing or calculating risks in the post-crisis environment - Presents material in a homogenous, practical, clear, and not overly technical manner
Download or read book Mathematics of Finance written by George Yin and published by American Mathematical Soc.. This book was released on 2004 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains papers based on talks given at the first AMS-IMS-SIAM Joint Summer Research Conference on Mathematics of Finance held at Snowbird. This book includes such topics as modeling, estimation, optimization, control, and risk assessment and management. It is suitable for students interested in mathematical finance.
Download or read book Inverse Problems in Vision and 3D Tomography written by Ali Mohamad-Djafari and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-01-29 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The concept of an inverse problem is a familiar one to most scientists and engineers, particularly in the field of signal and image processing, imaging systems (medical, geophysical, industrial non-destructive testing, etc.), and computer vision. In imaging systems, the aim is not just to estimate unobserved images but also their geometric characteristics from observed quantities that are linked to these unobserved quantities by a known physical or mathematical relationship. In this manner techniques such as image enhancement or addition of hidden detail can be delivered. This book focuses on imaging and vision problems that can be clearly described in terms of an inverse problem where an estimate for the image and its geometrical attributes (contours and regions) is sought. The book uses a consistent methodology to examine inverse problems such as: noise removal; restoration by deconvolution; 2D or 3D reconstruction in X-ray, tomography or microwave imaging; reconstruction of the surface of a 3D object using X-ray tomography or making use of its shading; reconstruction of the surface of a 3D landscape based on several satellite photos; super-resolution; motion estimation in a sequence of images; separation of several images mixed using instruments with different sensitivities or transfer functions; and much more.
Download or read book Credit Risk written by Darrell Duffie and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-12 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial institutions the world over are revising their credit management strategies. Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussions of the conceptual foundations of modeling with extensive analyses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transitions, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, collateralized debt obligations, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread options. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial institutions for future changes in the financial markets. Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.
Download or read book Advances in Credit Risk Modeling and Management written by Frédéric Vrins and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-07-01 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit risk remains one of the major risks faced by most financial and credit institutions. It is deeply connected to the real economy due to the systemic nature of some banks, but also because well-managed lending facilities are key for wealth creation and technological innovation. This book is a collection of innovative papers in the field of credit risk management. Besides the probability of default (PD), the major driver of credit risk is the loss given default (LGD). In spite of its central importance, LGD modeling remains largely unexplored in the academic literature. This book proposes three contributions in the field. Ye & Bellotti exploit a large private dataset featuring non-performing loans to design a beta mixture model. Their model can be used to improve recovery rate forecasts and, therefore, to enhance capital requirement mechanisms. François uses instead the price of defaultable instruments to infer the determinants of market-implied recovery rates and finds that macroeconomic and long-term issuer specific factors are the main determinants of market-implied LGDs. Cheng & Cirillo address the problem of modeling the dependency between PD and LGD using an original, urn-based statistical model. Fadina & Schmidt propose an improvement of intensity-based default models by accounting for ambiguity around both the intensity process and the recovery rate. Another topic deserving more attention is trade credit, which consists of the supplier providing credit facilities to his customers. Whereas this is likely to stimulate exchanges in general, it also magnifies credit risk. This is a difficult problem that remains largely unexplored. Kanapickiene & Spicas propose a simple but yet practical model to assess trade credit risk associated with SMEs and microenterprises operating in Lithuania. Another topical area in credit risk is counterparty risk and all other adjustments (such as liquidity and capital adjustments), known as XVA. Chataignier & Crépey propose a genetic algorithm to compress CVA and to obtain affordable incremental figures. Anagnostou & Kandhai introduce a hidden Markov model to simulate exchange rate scenarios for counterparty risk. Eventually, Boursicot et al. analyzes CoCo bonds, and find that they reduce the total cost of debt, which is positive for shareholders. In a nutshell, all the featured papers contribute to shedding light on various aspects of credit risk management that have, so far, largely remained unexplored.
Download or read book Credit Risk Modeling written by David Lando and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-12-13 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand, and on a direct modeling of the default probability of issuers on the other. He offers insights that can be drawn from each approach and demonstrates that the distinction between the two approaches is not at all clear-cut. The book strikes a fruitful balance between quickly presenting the basic ideas of the models and offering enough detail so readers can derive and implement the models themselves. The discussion of the models and their limitations and five technical appendixes help readers expand and generalize the models themselves or to understand existing generalizations. The book emphasizes models for pricing as well as statistical techniques for estimating their parameters. Applications include rating-based modeling, modeling of dependent defaults, swap- and corporate-yield curve dynamics, credit default swaps, and collateralized debt obligations.
Download or read book Correlation Risk Modeling and Management written by Gunter Meissner and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-19 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A thorough guide to correlation risk and its growing importance in global financial markets Ideal for anyone studying for CFA, PRMIA, CAIA, or other certifications, Correlation Risk Modeling and Management is the first rigorous guide to the topic of correlation risk. A relatively overlooked type of risk until it caused major unexpected losses during the financial crisis of 2007 through 2009, correlation risk has become a major focus of the risk management departments in major financial institutions, particularly since Basel III specifically addressed correlation risk with new regulations. This offers a rigorous explanation of the topic, revealing new and updated approaches to modelling and risk managing correlation risk. Offers comprehensive coverage of a topic of increasing importance in the financial world Includes the Basel III correlation framework Features interactive models in Excel/VBA, an accompanying website with further materials, and problems and questions at the end of each chapter
Download or read book Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis written by Anthony Saunders and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-04-16 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A classic book on credit risk management is updated to reflect the current economic crisis Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis dissects the 2007-2008 credit crisis and provides solutions for professionals looking to better manage risk through modeling and new technology. This book is a complete update to Credit Risk Measurement: New Approaches to Value at Risk and Other Paradigms, reflecting events stemming from the recent credit crisis. Authors Anthony Saunders and Linda Allen address everything from the implications of new regulations to how the new rules will change everyday activity in the finance industry. They also provide techniques for modeling-credit scoring, structural, and reduced form models-while offering sound advice for stress testing credit risk models and when to accept or reject loans. Breaks down the latest credit risk measurement and modeling techniques and simplifies many of the technical and analytical details surrounding them Concentrates on the underlying economics to objectively evaluate new models Includes new chapters on how to prevent another crisis from occurring Understanding credit risk measurement is now more important than ever. Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis will solidify your knowledge of this dynamic discipline.
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
