Download or read book Volume and the Nonlinear Dynamics of Stock Returns written by Chiente Hsu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This manuscript is about the joint dynamics of stock returns and trading volume. It grew out of my attempt to construct an intertemporal asset pricing model with rational agents which can. explain the relation between volume, volatility and persistence of stock return documented in empirical literature. Most part of the manuscript is taken from my thesis. I wish to express my deep appreciation to Peter Kugler and Benedikt Poetscher, my advisors of the thesis, for their invaluable guidance and support. I wish to thank Gerhard Orosel and Gerhard Sorger for their encouraging and helpful discussions. Finally, my thanks go to George Tauchen who has been generous in giving me the benefit of his numerical and computational experience, in providing me with programs and in his encouragement. Contents 1 Introduction 1 7 2 Efficient Stock Markets Equilibrium Models of Asset Pricing 8 2. 1 2. 1. 1 The Martigale Model of Stock Prices 8 2. 1. 2 Lucas' Consumption Based Asset Pricing Model 9 2. 2 Econometric Tests of the Efficient Market Hypothesis 13 2. 2. 1 Autocorrelation Based Tests 14 16 2. 2. 2 Volatility Tests Time-Varying Expected Returns 25 2. 2. 3 3 The Informational Role of Volume 29 3. 1 Standard Grossman-Stiglitz Model 31 3. 2 The No-Trad Result of the BEO Model 34 A Model with Nontradable Asset 37 3. 3 4 Volume and Volatility of Stock Returns 43 4. 1 Empirical and Numerical Results 45 4.

Download or read book Asset Price Dynamics Volatility and Prediction written by Stephen J. Taylor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-02-11 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions. Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions. Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.

Download or read book Operations Research Proceedings 2004 written by Hein Fleuren and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-05-20 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These proceedings provide information on the most recent advances in operations research and related areas in economics, mathematics, and computer science, contributed by academics and practitioners from around the world.

Download or read book The Economy As An Evolving Complex System II written by W. Brian Arthur and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-05-04 with total page 437 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new view of the economy as an evolving, complex system has been pioneered at the Santa Fe Institute over the last ten years, This volume is a collection of articles that shape and define this view?a view of the economy as emerging from the interactions of individual agents whose behavior constantly evolves, whose strategies and actions are always adapting.The traditional framework in economics portrays activity within an equilibrium steady state. The interacting agents in the economy are typically homogenous, solve well-defined problems using perfect rationality, and act within given legal and social structures. The complexity approach, by contrast, sees economic activity as continually changing?continually in process. The interacting agents are typically heterogeneous, they must cognitively interpret the problems they face, and together they create the structures?markets, legal and social institutions, price patters, expectations?to which they individually react. Such structures may never settle down. Agents may forever adapt and explore and evolve their behaviors within structures that continually emerge and change and disappear?structures these behaviors co-create. This complexity approach does not replace the equilibrium one?it complements it.The papers here collected originated at a recent conference at the Santa Fe Institute, which was called to follow up the well-known 1987 SFI conference organized by Philip Anderson, Kenneth Arrow, and David Pines. They survey the new study of complexity and the economy. They apply this approach to real economic problems and they show the extent to which the initial vision of the 1987 conference has come to fruition.

Download or read book Growth Theory Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling written by William A. Brock and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Buz Brock's contribution to economic theory in general and economic dynamics in particular are characterized by an unmatched richness of ideas and by deep theoretical, empirical as well as computational analysis. Brock's contribution to economic dynamics range from one extreme of the field, global stability of stochastic optimal growth models, to another extreme, market instability and nonlinearity in economic and financial modelling and data analysis. But his work also includes environmental and economic policy issues and, more recently, the modelling of markets as complex adaptive systems. This collection of essays reflects Brock's richness of ideas that have motivated economists for more than three decades already and will continue to influence many economists for the next decades to come.' - Cars H. Hommes, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands 'Buz Brock has been, from the beginning of his career, one of the most original thinkers in dynamic economics. His early work showed that growth with random elements could be studied effectively and above all posed exactly the right questions. His more recent work has brought complexity theory to the fore and shown its implications for financial and other markets. In the process, he has both introduced and used econometric tools to show the relevance of his work to empirically observed phenomena. It is very useful to have his work in collected form.' - Kenneth J. Arrow, Stanford University, US This outstanding collection of William Brock's essays illustrates the power of dynamic modelling to shed light on the forces for stability and instability in economic systems. The articles selected reflect his best work and are indicative both of the type of policy problem that he finds challenging and the complex methodology that he uses to solve them. Also included is an introduction by Brock to his own work, which helps tie together the main aspects of his research to date.

Download or read book Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data written by Philip Rothman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data provides an examination of the flourishing interest that has developed in this area over the past decade. The constant theme throughout this work is that standard linear time series tools leave unexamined and unexploited economically significant features in frequently used data sets. The book comprises original contributions written by specialists in the field, and offers a combination of both applied and methodological papers. It will be useful to both seasoned veterans of nonlinear time series analysis and those searching for an informative panoramic look at front-line developments in the area.

Download or read book Handbook of Financial Markets Dynamics and Evolution written by Thorsten Hens and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The models of portfolio selection and asset price dynamics in this volume seek to explain the market dynamics of asset prices. Presenting a range of analytical, empirical, and numerical techniques as well as several different modeling approaches, the authors depict the state of debate on the market selection hypothesis. By explicitly assuming the heterogeneity of investors, they present models that are descriptive and normative as well, making the volume useful for both finance theorists and financial practitioners. - Explains the market dynamics of asset prices, offering insights about asset management approaches - Assumes a heterogeneity of investors that yields descriptive and normative models of portfolio selections and asset pricing dynamics

Download or read book Multifractal Volatility written by Laurent E. Calvet and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2008-10-13 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Calvet and Fisher present a powerful, new technique for volatility forecasting that draws on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics and provides a unified treatment of the use of multifractal techniques in finance. A large existing literature (e.g., Engle, 1982; Rossi, 1995) models volatility as an average of past shocks, possibly with a noise component. This approach often has difficulty capturing sharp discontinuities and large changes in financial volatility. Their research has shown the advantages of modelling volatility as subject to abrupt regime changes of heterogeneous durations. Using the intuition that some economic phenomena are long-lasting while others are more transient, they permit regimes to have varying degrees of persistence. By drawing on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics, they show how to construct high-dimensional regime-switching models that are easy to estimate, and substantially outperform some of the best traditional forecasting models such as GARCH. The goal of Multifractal Volatility is to popularize the approach by presenting these exciting new developments to a wider audience. They emphasize both theoretical and empirical applications, beginning with a style that is easily accessible and intuitive in early chapters, and extending to the most rigorous continuous-time and equilibrium pricing formulations in final chapters. - Presents a powerful new technique for forecasting volatility - Leads the reader intuitively from existing volatility techniques to the frontier of research in this field by top scholars at major universities - The first comprehensive book on multifractal techniques in finance, a cutting-edge field of research

Download or read book The International Guide to Securities Market Indices written by Henry Shilling and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-11-30 with total page 1066 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1996, The International Guide to Securities Market Indices provides a comprehensive overview of the securities market indices and offers assistance to professionals as well as individual investors in the selection of an appropriate securities market index, on a worldwide basis. The Guide’s identifies and catalogues available performance indicators along with their publishers and describes their relevant characteristics and a perspective on their historical price and total return performance. It also contains descriptive profiles along with historical performance data on 400 of the world’s leading global, regional and local securities market indices and sub-indices covering 10 asset classes.

Download or read book Stock Market Volatility written by Greg N. Gregoriou and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2009-04-08 with total page 654 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Up-to-Date Research Sheds New Light on This Area Taking into account the ongoing worldwide financial crisis, Stock Market Volatility provides insight to better understand volatility in various stock markets. This timely volume is one of the first to draw on a range of international authorities who offer their expertise on market volatility in devel

Download or read book Financial Markets Theory written by Emilio Barucci and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-06-08 with total page 843 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work, now in a thoroughly revised second edition, presents the economic foundations of financial markets theory from a mathematically rigorous standpoint and offers a self-contained critical discussion based on empirical results. It is the only textbook on the subject to include more than two hundred exercises, with detailed solutions to selected exercises. Financial Markets Theory covers classical asset pricing theory in great detail, including utility theory, equilibrium theory, portfolio selection, mean-variance portfolio theory, CAPM, CCAPM, APT, and the Modigliani-Miller theorem. Starting from an analysis of the empirical evidence on the theory, the authors provide a discussion of the relevant literature, pointing out the main advances in classical asset pricing theory and the new approaches designed to address asset pricing puzzles and open problems (e.g., behavioral finance). Later chapters in the book contain more advanced material, including on the role of information in financial markets, non-classical preferences, noise traders and market microstructure. This textbook is aimed at graduate students in mathematical finance and financial economics, but also serves as a useful reference for practitioners working in insurance, banking, investment funds and financial consultancy. Introducing necessary tools from microeconomic theory, this book is highly accessible and completely self-contained. Advance praise for the second edition: "Financial Markets Theory is comprehensive, rigorous, and yet highly accessible. With their second edition, Barucci and Fontana have set an even higher standard!"Darrell Duffie, Dean Witter Distinguished Professor of Finance, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University "This comprehensive book is a great self-contained source for studying most major theoretical aspects of financial economics. What makes the book particularly useful is that it provides a lot of intuition, detailed discussions of empirical implications, a very thorough survey of the related literature, and many completely solved exercises. The second edition covers more ground and provides many more proofs, and it will be a handy addition to the library of every student or researcher in the field."Jaksa Cvitanic, Richard N. Merkin Professor of Mathematical Finance, Caltech "The second edition of Financial Markets Theory by Barucci and Fontana is a superb achievement that knits together all aspects of modern finance theory, including financial markets microstructure, in a consistent and self-contained framework. Many exercises, together with their detailed solutions, make this book indispensable for serious students in finance."Michel Crouhy, Head of Research and Development, NATIXIS

Download or read book Topics in Market Microstructure written by Ilija I. Zovko and published by Amsterdam University Press. This book was released on 2008-09-01 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market microstructure is a study of the processes through which the investors predictions of the future and their trading strategies determine market prices. Recent advances in market microstructure have been made possible by the proliferation of computers in the trading process and the availability of high quality financial data. This has attracted researchers from various disciplines (e.g., finance, physics, computer science) creating an interdisciplinary research arena with the common goal of understanding a very complicated yet very well documented by data system of a large number of interacting intelligent agents. This book contains four papers in which the authors investigate the interactions of investors strategies and the resulting aggregate properties of transaction prices.

Download or read book Financial Market Drift written by Lukas Menkhoff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International financial markets play an increasingly important role. There can be no doubt that over the past twenty years the size of financial markets have grown at a faster pace than the size of the markets for goods and services. However, it is still unclear whether this is a desirable development. This book discusses the debate on the possible separation of the financial sector and real economy. The text makes use of established scientific research.

Download or read book The Conquest of American Inflation written by Thomas J. Sargent and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the past fifteen years, inflation has been conquered by many advanced countries. History reveals, however, that it has been conquered before and returned. In The Conquest of American Inflation, Thomas J. Sargent presents a groundbreaking analysis of the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after 1960. He examines two broad explanations for the behavior of inflation and unemployment in this period: the natural-rate hypothesis joined to the Lucas critique and a more traditional econometric policy evaluation modified to include adaptive expectations and learning. His purpose is not only to determine which is the better account, but also to codify for the benefit of the next generation the economic forces that cause inflation. Sargent begins with an explanation of how American policymakers increased inflation in the early 1960s by following erroneous assumptions about the exploitability of the Phillips curve--the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. In subsequent chapters, he connects a sequence of ideas--self-confirming equilibria, least-squares and other adaptive or recursive learning algorithms, convergence of least-squares learners with self-confirming equilibria, and recurrent dynamics along escape routes from self-confirming equilibria. Sargent synthesizes results from macroeconomics, game theory, control theory, and other fields to extend both adaptive expectations and rational expectations theory, and he compellingly describes postwar inflation in terms of drifting coefficients. He interprets his results in favor of adaptive expectations as the relevant mechanism affecting inflation policy. Providing an original methodological link between theoretical and policy economics, this book will engender much debate and become an indispensable text for academics, graduate students, and professional economists.

Download or read book Strategic Design and Innovative Thinking in Business Operations written by Hasan Dincer and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-05-30 with total page 463 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recently, rapid technological advances have been influencing the global business operations strategies at companies of all sizes like never before. At the same time, there has been a shift in business cultures due to the rising prevalence of matrix organizations and innovative thinking. This book investigates the role of these factors in shaping the business operations of tomorrow. To address the topic comprehensively, the editors have gathered expert contributions exploring the following dimensions: the business and organizational environment, strategic design, innovativeness and risk management. Discussing aspects ranging from customer selection to understanding regional, national and supranational market dynamics, the contributions will help readers understand both the complexity of and opportunities presented by designing operations.

Download or read book Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume written by Hua He and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a multi-period rational expectations model of stock trading in which investors have differential information concerning the underlying value of the stock. Investors trade competitively in the stock market based on their private information and the information revealed by the market-clearing prices, as well as other public news. We examine how trading volume is related to the information flow in the market and how investors' trading reveals their private information.

Download or read book Agent Based Modeling written by Norman Ehrentreich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-10-30 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reconciles the existence of technical trading with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. By analyzing a well-known agent-based model, the Santa Fe Institute Artificial Stock Market (SFI-ASM), it finds that when selective forces are weak, financial evolution cannot guarantee that only the fittest trading rules will survive. Its main contribution lies in the application of standard results from population genetics which have widely been neglected in the agent-based community.