Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Download or read book Decision Science for Future Earth written by Tetsukazu Yahara and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-01-29 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book provides a theoretical framework and case studies on decision science for regional sustainability by integrating the natural and social sciences. The cases discussed include solution-oriented transdisciplinary studies on the environment, disasters, health, governance and human cooperation. Based on these case studies and comprehensive reviews of relevant works, including lessons learned from past failures for predictable surprises and successes in adaptive co-management, the book provides the reader with new perspectives on how we can co-design collaborative projects with various conflicts of interest and how we can transform our society for a sustainable future. The book makes a valuable contribution to the global research initiative Future Earth, promoting transdisciplinary studies to bridge the gap between science and society in knowledge generation processes and supporting efforts to achieve the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Compared to other publications on transdisciplinary studies, this book is unique in that evolutionary biology is used as an integrator for various areas related to human decision-making, and approaches social changes as processes of adaptive learning and evolution. Given its scope, the book is highly recommended to all readers seeking an integrated overview of human decision-making in the context of social transformation.
Download or read book Adolescent Decision Making written by National Research Council and Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-06-14 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest in the role that decision making plays in adolescents' involvement in high-risk behaviors led the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Planning and Evaluation of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to request the Board on Children, Youth, and Families to convene a workshop on adolescent decision making. The Board on Children, Youth, and Families is a joint activity of the National Research Council (NRC) and the Institute of Medicine. A workshop was held on January 6-7, 1998, to examine what is known about adolescents' decision-making skills and the implications of that knowledge for programs to further their healthy development.
Download or read book Behavioral Decision Theory written by Kazuhisa Takemura and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-09-29 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the second edition of Behavioral Decision Theory, published in 2014. The main approach and structure of this book have been retained in the new edition. However, this second edition provides a fresh overview of the idea of behavioral decision theory and related research findings such as theoretical and empirical discoveries of preference formation, time discounting, social interaction, and social decision making. The book covers a wide range from classical to relatively recent major studies concerning behavioral decision theory, which, in brief, is a general term for descriptive theories to explain the psychological knowledge related to people’s decision-making behavior. It is called a theory but is actually a combination of various psychological theories, for which no axiomatic systems—such as those associated with the utility theory widely used in economics—have been established. The utility theory is often limited to qualitative knowledge; however, as the studies of Nobel laureates H. A. Simon, D. Kahneman, and R. Thaler have suggested, the psychological methodology and knowledge of behavioral decision theory have been applied widely in such fields as economics, business administration, and engineering and are expected to become even more useful in the future. Research into people’s decision making represents an important part in those fields, various aspects of which overlap with the scope of behavioral decision theory. This theory is closely related to behavioral economics and behavioral finance, which have come into greater use in recent years. This book will appeal especially to graduate students, advanced undergraduate students, and researchers who are interested in decision-making phenomena.
Download or read book The Paradox of Choice written by Barry Schwartz and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2009-10-13 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether we're buying a pair of jeans, ordering a cup of coffee, selecting a long-distance carrier, applying to college, choosing a doctor, or setting up a 401(k), everyday decisions—both big and small—have become increasingly complex due to the overwhelming abundance of choice with which we are presented. As Americans, we assume that more choice means better options and greater satisfaction. But beware of excessive choice: choice overload can make you question the decisions you make before you even make them, it can set you up for unrealistically high expectations, and it can make you blame yourself for any and all failures. In the long run, this can lead to decision-making paralysis, anxiety, and perpetual stress. And, in a culture that tells us that there is no excuse for falling short of perfection when your options are limitless, too much choice can lead to clinical depression. In The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz explains at what point choice—the hallmark of individual freedom and self-determination that we so cherish—becomes detrimental to our psychological and emotional well-being. In accessible, engaging, and anecdotal prose, Schwartz shows how the dramatic explosion in choice—from the mundane to the profound challenges of balancing career, family, and individual needs—has paradoxically become a problem instead of a solution. Schwartz also shows how our obsession with choice encourages us to seek that which makes us feel worse. By synthesizing current research in the social sciences, Schwartz makes the counter intuitive case that eliminating choices can greatly reduce the stress, anxiety, and busyness of our lives. He offers eleven practical steps on how to limit choices to a manageable number, have the discipline to focus on those that are important and ignore the rest, and ultimately derive greater satisfaction from the choices you have to make.
Download or read book Self Control Decision Theory and Rationality written by José Luis Bermúdez and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-12-06 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A distinguished group of philosophers, decision theorists, and psychologists offer new interdisciplinary perspectives on the rationality of self-control.
Download or read book The Great Mental Models Volume 1 written by Shane Parrish and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.
Download or read book Decision Loom written by Vincent Barabba and published by Triarchy Press. This book was released on 2011-11-30 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision-making has been one of the principal victims of 'modern' thinking. The 'analytical' approach has, of course, brought us vaccines, electricity and the internal combustion engine. But, in seeking to break things down into their component parts and improve the parts, governments and businesses continue to make some astonishingly bad decisions. What's more, many enterprises still pay close attention to 'decisions' and 'decision-making' whilst overlooking the bigger picture: the organizational system within which those decisions get made. This elegant book is a guide for any public, private, government or non-profit organization that needs a system for making better decisions. It sets out to change our 'analytical' habit and invites enterprises to consider the bigger picture. Author Vince Barabba presents an elegantly simple approach to making better decisions. He calls this approach 'The Decision Loom' and bases it on Systems Thinking, Design Thinking and Complexity Theory. He also describes the four core capabilities that any organization must put in place for this approach to work. What's more (because we're humans and prefer stories to instruction manuals) the tapestry of the book is embroidered with fascinating examples from the author's lifetime of experience at the head of American corporate and public decision-making.
Download or read book Decision Theory with a Human Face written by Richard Bradley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-26 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores how decision-makers can manage uncertainty that varies in both kind and severity by extending and supplementing Bayesian decision theory.
Download or read book Do Emotions Help or Hurt Decisionmaking written by Kathleen D. Vohs and published by Russell Sage Foundation. This book was released on 2007-11-26 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Philosophers have long tussled over whether moral judgments are the products of logical reasoning or simply emotional reactions. From Jane Austen's Sense and Sensibility to the debates of modern psychologists, the question of whether feeling or sober rationality is the better guide to decision making has been a source of controversy. In Do Emotions Help or Hurt Decision Making? Kathleen Vohs, Roy Baumeister, and George Loewenstein lead a group of prominent psychologists and economists in exploring the empirical evidence on how emotions shape judgments and choices. Researchers on emotion and cognition have staked out many extreme positions: viewing emotions as either the driving force behind cognition or its side effect, either an impediment to sound judgment or a guide to wise decisions. The contributors to Do Emotions Help or Hurt Decision Making? provide a richer perspective, exploring the circumstances that shape whether emotions play a harmful or helpful role in decisions. Roy Baumeister, C. Nathan DeWall, and Liqing Zhang show that while an individual's current emotional state can lead to hasty decisions and self-destructive behavior, anticipating future emotional outcomes can be a helpful guide to making sensible decisions. Eduardo Andrade and Joel Cohen find that a positive mood can negatively affect people's willingness to act altruistically. Happy people, when made aware of risks associated with altruistic acts, become wary of jeopardizing their own well-being. Benoît Monin, David Pizarro, and Jennifer Beer find that whether emotion or reason matters more in moral evaluation depends on the specific issue in question. Individual characteristics often mediate the effect of emotions on decisions. Catherine Rawn, Nicole Mead, Peter Kerkhof, and Kathleen Vohs find that whether an individual makes a decision based on emotion depends both on the type of decision in question and the individual's level of self-esteem. And Quinn Kennedy and Mara Mather show that the elderly are better able to regulate their emotions, having learned from experience to anticipate the emotional consequences of their behavior. Do Emotions Help or Hurt Decision Making? represents a significant advance toward a comprehensive theory of emotions and cognition that accounts for the nuances of the mental processes involved. This landmark book will be a stimulus to scholarly debates as well as an informative guide to everyday decisions.
Download or read book The Gray Rhino written by Michele Wucker and published by St. Martin's Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The #1 English-language bestseller in China--the book that is shaping China's planning and policy for the future. A "gray rhino" is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union...all were evident well in advance. Why do leaders and decision makers keep failing to address obvious dangers before they spiral out of control? Drawing on her extensive background in policy formation and crisis management, as well as in-depth interviews with leaders from around the world, Michele Wucker shows in The Gray Rhino how to recognize and strategically counter looming high impact threats. Filled with persuasive stories, real-world examples, and practical advice, The Gray Rhino is essential reading for managers, investors, planners, policy makers, and anyone who wants to understand how to profit by avoiding getting trampled.
Download or read book Image Theory written by Lee Roy Beach and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1998 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: will compliment Beach's book, Decision Making, and sell in management and Industrial?organizational programs.
Download or read book Portfolio Decision Analysis written by Ahti Salo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-08-12 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications. The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.
Download or read book Decision Trees for Decision Making written by John F. Magee and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Supported Decision Making written by Karrie A. Shogren and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Integrates research, theory, and practice in supported decision-making and describes implications for supports provision in the disability field.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Download or read book Decision Making Using Game Theory written by Anthony Kelly and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-03-27 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Game theory is a key element in most decision-making processes involving two or more people or organisations. This book explains how game theory can predict the outcome of complex decision-making processes, and how it can help you to improve your own negotiation and decision-making skills. It is grounded in well-established theory, yet the wide-ranging international examples used to illustrate its application offer a fresh approach to an essential weapon in the armoury of the informed manager. The book is accessibly written, explaining in simple terms the underlying mathematics behind games of skill, before moving on to more sophisticated topics such as zero-sum games, mixed-motive games, and multi-person games, coalitions and power. Clear examples and helpful diagrams are used throughout, and the mathematics is kept to a minimum. It is written for managers, students and decision makers in any field.
