Download or read book A Critical Analysis of Overconfidence as an Explanation for the High Rate of Business Entry Failure written by Thorben Wölk and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2013 im Fachbereich BWL - Unternehmensfuhrung, Management, Organisation, einseitig bedruckt, Note: 1,0, Christian-Albrechts-Universitat Kiel (Applied economics of the firm), Veranstaltung: Risk and Entrepreneurship, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Friday, the 19th of October, 2012, the German newspaper "Handelsblatt" (Storbeck, 2012) titled: "Rethinking Economy." 15 young economists were introduced to be the new hope for economic science. One of them was Ulrike Malmendier whose first economic researches deal with managerial hubris. Introducing her is proofing the importance of a new economic domain called "behavioural economics." As a behavioural economist Malmendier criticises the "homo-economicus"-model and the idea of people acting entirely rational. In fact, people constantly display irrational behaviour that results out of cognitive biases (that distort their perception) and also results out of simple, but biased decision rules (heuristics) that the human mind implies. One of those cognitive biases is that people seem to be unreasonable overconfident. The study of overconfidence is originated in the psychological literature. Because of it's great impact on the behaviour of economic actors, it recently influences economic and finance literature (Benoit, Dubra, 2011) and significantly shapes the research activity in behavioural economics. The task of this essay is to critically analyse the role of overconfidence in a special economic domain: business entry decisions. The text is structured as follows: The first section shortly deals with the domain of business entry failures. In the subsequent chapters, overconfidence is introduced as a possible explanation. It is to explain what overconfidence is and how it arises. The text then reviews the paper of Camerer and Lovallo (1999) and critically analyses overconfidence as an explanation for excess entry and high rates of business failure. At last, it will take a further look at the future resea"
Download or read book Why Startups Fail written by Tom Eisenmann and published by Currency. This book was released on 2021-03-30 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you want your startup to succeed, you need to understand why startups fail. “Whether you’re a first-time founder or looking to bring innovation into a corporate environment, Why Startups Fail is essential reading.”—Eric Ries, founder and CEO, LTSE, and New York Times bestselling author of The Lean Startup and The Startup Way Why do startups fail? That question caught Harvard Business School professor Tom Eisenmann by surprise when he realized he couldn’t answer it. So he launched a multiyear research project to find out. In Why Startups Fail, Eisenmann reveals his findings: six distinct patterns that account for the vast majority of startup failures. • Bad Bedfellows. Startup success is thought to rest largely on the founder’s talents and instincts. But the wrong team, investors, or partners can sink a venture just as quickly. • False Starts. In following the oft-cited advice to “fail fast” and to “launch before you’re ready,” founders risk wasting time and capital on the wrong solutions. • False Promises. Success with early adopters can be misleading and give founders unwarranted confidence to expand. • Speed Traps. Despite the pressure to “get big fast,” hypergrowth can spell disaster for even the most promising ventures. • Help Wanted. Rapidly scaling startups need lots of capital and talent, but they can make mistakes that leave them suddenly in short supply of both. • Cascading Miracles. Silicon Valley exhorts entrepreneurs to dream big. But the bigger the vision, the more things that can go wrong. Drawing on fascinating stories of ventures that failed to fulfill their early promise—from a home-furnishings retailer to a concierge dog-walking service, from a dating app to the inventor of a sophisticated social robot, from a fashion brand to a startup deploying a vast network of charging stations for electric vehicles—Eisenmann offers frameworks for detecting when a venture is vulnerable to these patterns, along with a wealth of strategies and tactics for avoiding them. A must-read for founders at any stage of their entrepreneurial journey, Why Startups Fail is not merely a guide to preventing failure but also a roadmap charting the path to startup success.
Download or read book Entrepreneurial Success and Failure written by Robin M. Hogarth and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Dynamics of Entrepreneurship written by Maria Minniti and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2013-02-14 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learning about entrepreneurship has major implications for the way we understand economic change and progress. At a time when governments all over the world look to entrepreneurship as a way to increase the wealth and well-being of their countries, The Dynamics of Entrepreneurship examines the causes of differences in entrepreneurial propensity between individuals, the factors that explain variations in the type and quantity of entrepreneurship at the aggregate level, and the macroeconomic implications of entrepreneurship. Using Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data, the book brings together contributions from leading scholars to provide a comprehensive overview of current scholarship on entrepreneurial activity. Discussed topics include entrepreneurial motivation, gender and migration, entrepreneurial financing, urban entrepreneurship, growth-oriented entrepreneurship, economic growth, and regional entrepreneurship policies. The book concludes by summarizing its contribution to existing literature, with particular attention paid to the policy implications and the ongoing debate on entrepreneurship.
Download or read book Overconfidence Review of its Economic Implications written by Stefan Dietrich and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2018-05-02 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essay from the year 2017 in the subject Psychology - Work, Business, Organisation, grade: 1,00, University of Mannheim, course: Behavioral Economics Seminar, language: English, abstract: Overconfidence is believed to be one of the most widespread behavioral biases. Empirical evidence supports this argument in many instances and differentiates between various forms and manifestations. Whether this is in sum economically negative for the individual or society remains unanswered in the literature. I analyze the economic implications of overconfidence based on recent research and connects them to reasons and viable solutions to overcome this bias in certain areas of the economic realm: consumer choices, market entry and decision making of firms, financial markets and bubbles.
Download or read book Managerial Overconfidence Different Thinking through Different Education written by Maximilian Margolin and published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag). This book was released on 2014-02-01 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In literature, overconfidence has been blamed for economic bubbles and crises as well as for international conflicts and wars. While education has already been shown to impact one’s level of overconfidence previous research focused on the length and profoundness of education. This study, in contrast, examines the connection between overconfidence and the field in which a person has been educated. The issues covered are therefore how education and mind set are related, why a differentiation between “quantitative” and “qualitative” education makes sense in this context, and how different mind-sets influence an individual’s proneness to overconfidence. Drawing on the dual process concept of reasoning from psychology it is argued that the focus of one’s education may have an influence on individual levels of overconfidence through distinct ways of reasoning that are acquired and practiced during higher education. As support for this theory, data on the overconfidence of CEOs of the largest German companies is used and experiments for future research on this topic are suggested.
Download or read book Overconfidence and its Influence on Risk written by Christopher Knoll and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2021-11-18 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2016 in the subject Psychology - Industrial and organizational psychology, grade: 1.7, University of Passau, course: Behavioral Economics and the Seven Sins, language: English, abstract: In a study conducted in 1980 drivers were surveyed about their driving skills in comparison to a group of others. In her experiment, Svenson analyses how people judge their own skill and risk taking engaged in risky activities. The result of the experiment shows that 88% of US subjects and 77% of Swedish subjects judged their skills above the average skill in their subject group. Preston and Harris (1965) indicate even more bias from subjects. They compared 50 drivers which were involved in accidents, besides being hospitalized, they still showed means stating that they judged themselves more skillful than the average driver. The central element of the economic paradigm is homo economicus. Homo economicus is described as an individual with rational actions. The homo economicus faces a situation with limited resources to satisfy his needs. Therefore, the homo economicus uses rational decisions to optimize his outcome and gain the highest utility possible. Behavioral economic research on the other hand distinguishes a deviance of human behavior from the rational homo economicus as can be observed in Svenson’s study. The behavior is called overconfidence, which is a widely discussed phenomenon in behavioral economic literature. Psychological studies show that most people are overconfident about their own relative abilities, tend to underestimate their competition and make unreasonably optimistic predictions about their futures. In the following, the characteristics of the behavioral model of overconfidence will be further discussed. Subsequently, the influence of overconfidence on risk taking will be evaluated.
Download or read book The Impact of Overconfidence and Ambiguity Attitude on Market Entry written by Cédric Gutierrez and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Managerial Overconfidence and Education Insights from Dual Process Theory written by Maximilian Margolin and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-02-07 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2012 in the subject Business economics - Miscellaneous, grade: 1,3, University of Mannheim, course: Business economics, language: English, abstract: Based on data from German DAX-CEOs in this thesis it is argued, that in different fields of education individuals acquire different mind-sets which influence their proneness to overconfidence. Using the framework of dual process reasoning it is proposed that education in quantitative fields, such as mathematics or physics, hampers overconfidence while individuals educated in qualitative fields, such as law or the humanities, become more prone to overconfidence.
Download or read book Impact of Overoptimism and Overconfidence on Economic Behavior written by Andreas Müller and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2007-11 with total page 81 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Diploma Thesis from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Business Management, Corporate Governance, grade: 1,3, Otto Beisheim School of Management Vallendar, 58 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: This paper aims to give an overview of two related human traits that have attracted particularly wide interest, namely overconfidence and overoptimism. The two are closely related to each other, and often used synonymously. Broadly speaking, overconfidence results in underestimation of future risks, e.g. the riskiness of future cash flows, whilst overoptimism leads to an overestimation of future positive outcomes, e.g. the future returns of a company. Besides, the paper wants to deduct suggestions for further research, by systematically identifying uncovered topics in existing literature. This paper also provides a closer look at the empirical methods normally applied in field studies. Although the phenomena are intuitively understandable, empirical researchstill presents itself as a mosaic of fragmented testing rather than a coherent framework. One may assume that this is mainly caused by the difficult measurability of overconfidence and overoptimism: On the one hand, the decision maker, convinced of his own rationality, contributes zero overconfidence or overoptimism to his actions. On the other hand, even a neutral observer cannot specify any degree of biasedness a priori, as stochastic outcomes per definition do not allow for perfect prediction. Therefore, scientists frequently rely on proxy variables that at least allow for measuring a group's average overoptimism or overconfidence. Furthermore, this paper empirically examines several considerations regarding existing research and measurement methods. It particularly aims to connect biasedness with certain personal and economic characteristics, namely participants' gender, industry affiliation, company life cycle, success and risk preferences. Additionally, different methods are e
Download or read book Psychological Approaches to Entrepreneurship written by Michael Frese and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The psychological study of entrepreneurship is most interesting because small-scale entrepreneurs must work on numerous tasks, such as development, leadership and organization. This text examines predictors of success and entrepreneurial behaviour.
Download or read book Prospect Theory written by Peter P. Wakker and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-07-22 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.
Download or read book On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs written by Antonio E. Bernardo and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Considering that roughly 75 percent of new businesses fail within the first five years, it is difficult to account for entrepreneurs' irrationally overconfident behavior.One explanation is that overconfident entrepreneurs are less likely to imitate their peers and more likely to explore their environment.When groups compete and inferior groups disappear, groups with some entrepreneurial activity may gain enough of an evolutionary advantage to permit entrepreneurs to survive in equilibrium; in other words, groups with some overconfident individuals have an evolutionary advantage over groups without such individuals. A model illustrates the idea that overconfidence imposes only small costs on entrepreneurs (who put too much weight on their own information) but provides large benefits in revealing their private information to their groups.The presentation of the model is followed by a discussion of factors influencing the trade-off between the positive information externality and the high rate of entrepreneurial attrition.This trade-off results in an optimal proportion of entrepreneurs and depends on the size of the group, the degree of overconfidence, and the accuracy of individuals' private information. What follows is a discussion of the trade-off between intergroup and intragroup selection, as well as arguments pro and con group selection.One alternative explanation for overconfidence exists: when trying to deceive others that they are of higher ability, individuals' credibility is enhanced if they are themselves convinced of this ability.(SAA).
Download or read book Improving Diagnosis in Health Care written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2015-12-29 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Getting the right diagnosis is a key aspect of health care - it provides an explanation of a patient's health problem and informs subsequent health care decisions. The diagnostic process is a complex, collaborative activity that involves clinical reasoning and information gathering to determine a patient's health problem. According to Improving Diagnosis in Health Care, diagnostic errors-inaccurate or delayed diagnoses-persist throughout all settings of care and continue to harm an unacceptable number of patients. It is likely that most people will experience at least one diagnostic error in their lifetime, sometimes with devastating consequences. Diagnostic errors may cause harm to patients by preventing or delaying appropriate treatment, providing unnecessary or harmful treatment, or resulting in psychological or financial repercussions. The committee concluded that improving the diagnostic process is not only possible, but also represents a moral, professional, and public health imperative. Improving Diagnosis in Health Care, a continuation of the landmark Institute of Medicine reports To Err Is Human (2000) and Crossing the Quality Chasm (2001), finds that diagnosis-and, in particular, the occurrence of diagnostic errorsâ€"has been largely unappreciated in efforts to improve the quality and safety of health care. Without a dedicated focus on improving diagnosis, diagnostic errors will likely worsen as the delivery of health care and the diagnostic process continue to increase in complexity. Just as the diagnostic process is a collaborative activity, improving diagnosis will require collaboration and a widespread commitment to change among health care professionals, health care organizations, patients and their families, researchers, and policy makers. The recommendations of Improving Diagnosis in Health Care contribute to the growing momentum for change in this crucial area of health care quality and safety.
Download or read book Perspectives on Innovation written by Franco Malerba and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007-03-29 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Case studies, empirical models, appreciative analyses and formal theories abound.
Download or read book Learning from Entrepreneurial Failure written by Dean A. Shepherd and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-03-04 with total page 343 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learning from Entrepreneurial Failure provides an important counterweight to the multitude of books that focus on entrepreneurial success. Failure is by far the most common scenario for new ventures and a critical part of the entrepreneurial process is learning from failure and having the motivation to try again. This book examines the various obstacles to learning from failure and explores how they can be overcome. A range of topics are discussed that include: why some people have a more negative emotional reaction to failure than others and how these negative emotions can be managed; why some people delay the decision to terminate a poorly performing entrepreneurial venture; anti-failure biases and stigmatism in organizations and society; and the role that the emotional content of narratives plays in the sense-making process. This thought-provoking book will appeal to academic researchers, graduate students and professionals in the fields of entrepreneurship and industrial psychology.
Download or read book Strategic Instincts written by Dominic D. P. Johnson and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2022-08-30 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A very timely book."—Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America How cognitive biases can guide good decision making in politics and international relations A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases—quirks of the brain we all share as human beings—are detrimental and responsible for policy failures, disasters, and wars. In Strategic Instincts, Dominic Johnson challenges this assumption, explaining that these nonrational behaviors can actually support favorable results in international politics and contribute to political and strategic success. By studying past examples, he considers the ways that cognitive biases act as “strategic instincts,” lending a competitive edge in policy decisions, especially under conditions of unpredictability and imperfect information. Drawing from evolutionary theory and behavioral sciences, Johnson looks at three influential cognitive biases—overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. He then examines the advantageous as well as the detrimental effects of these biases through historical case studies of the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. He acknowledges the dark side of biases—when confidence becomes hubris, when attribution errors become paranoia, and when group bias becomes prejudice. Ultimately, Johnson makes a case for a more nuanced understanding of the causes and consequences of cognitive biases and argues that in the complex world of international relations, strategic instincts can, in the right context, guide better performance. Strategic Instincts shows how an evolutionary perspective can offer the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on foundational questions in international politics.
