Download or read book 2015 External Sector Report Individual Economy Assessments written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-29 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The external sector assessments use a wide range of methods, including the External Balance Assessment (EBA) developed by the IMF’s Research Department to estimate desired current account balances and real exchange rates (see Annex I of the 2015 External Sector Report, also IMF Working Paper WP/13/272 for a complete description of the EBA methodology). In all cases, the overall assessment is based on the judgment of IMF staff drawing on the inputs provided by these model estimates and other analysis and the estimates are subject to uncertainty. The assessments discuss a broad range of external indicators: the current account, the real effective exchange rate, capital and financial accounts flows and measures, FX intervention and reserves and the foreign asset or liability position. The individual economy assessments are discussed with the respective authorities as a part of bilateral surveillance.
Download or read book 2015 External Sector Report written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-29 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After narrowing modestly in 2013, the global scale of current account imbalances, and of excess imbalances, held steady in 2014. Over the last several years, while the country composition of imbalances has rotated somewhat, overall there has been little progress on reducing excess imbalances. Excess deficits narrowed in some cases, but widened in others; progress on reducing excess surpluses has stalled. An unfinished policy agenda to reduce excess imbalances remains. Efforts by both surplus and deficit economies would be mutually reinforcing and support growth. Several significant recent developments will affect external positions in 2015: sharply lower oil prices, cyclical divergence and different monetary policies among the major economies, and related currency movements. Those developments do not overturn the previous pattern of excess imbalances and associated policy agenda, but they will have significant effects and raise new issues.
Download or read book 2016 External Sector Report Individual Economy Assessments written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-01-07 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The external sector assessments use a wide range of methods, including the External Balance Assessment (EBA) developed by the IMF’s Research Department to estimate desired current account balances and real exchange rates (see Annex I of the 2015 External Sector Report, also IMF Working Paper WP/13/272 for a complete description of the EBA methodology). In all cases, the overall assessment is based on the judgment of IMF staff drawing on the inputs provided by these model estimates and other analysis and the estimates are subject to uncertainty. The assessments discuss a broad range of external indicators: the current account, the real effective exchange rate, capital and financial accounts flows and measures, FX intervention and reserves and the foreign asset or liability position. The individual economy assessments are discussed with the respective authorities as a part of bilateral surveillance.
Download or read book Pilot External Sector Report written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-02-07 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Pilot External Sector Report (ESR) provides a multilaterally consistent analysis of the external positions of major world economies. Following the recommendations of the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review and the Managing Director’s Statement on Strengthening Surveillance, the focus of the analysis has been broadened beyond exchange rates to detailed examinations of current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets. It draws upon the Research Department’s past and new methods for assessing current accounts and real exchange rates (see Appendix I), and on previous IMF analytical work on exchange rates, capital flows and measures, and reserves adequacy.
Download or read book 2017 External Sector Report Individual Economy Assessments written by International Working Group on External Debt Statistics and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-28 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The external sector assessments use a wide range of methods, including the External Balance Assessment (EBA) developed by the IMF’s Research Department to estimate desired current account balances and real exchange rates (see IMF Working Paper WP/13/272 for a complete description of the EBA methodology and Annex I of the 2015 External Sector Report for a discussion of more recent refinements). In all cases, the overall assessment is based on the judgment of IMF staff drawing on the inputs provided by these model estimates and other analysis. Since estimates are subject to uncertainty, overall assessments are presented in ranges. The external sector assessments are based on data and IMF staff projections as of June 15th, 2017. The external assessments discuss a broad range of external indicators: the current account, the real effective exchange rate, capital and financial accounts flows and measures, FX intervention and reserves and the foreign asset or liability position.[1] The individual economy assessments are discussed with the respective authorities as a part of bilateral surveillance.
Download or read book 2016 External Sector Report written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-01-07 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After narrowing in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and remaining broadly unchanged in recent years, global imbalances increased moderately in 2015, amid a reconfiguration of current accounts and exchange rates. Shifts in 2015 were driven primarily by the uneven strength of the recovery in advanced economies, the redistributive effects of the sharp fall in commodity prices, and tighter external financing conditions for emerging markets (EMs). A relatively stronger U.S. outlook led to a further appreciation of the USD and a depreciation of the yen and the euro. The sharp decline in commodity prices, reflecting both supply shocks and concerns about rebalancing and growth in China, brought about a significant redistribution of income from commodity exporters to importers, and a weakening of commodity exporters’ currencies. Meanwhile, heightened global risk aversion, contributed to softer capital inflows and depreciation pressures in many EMs. This moderate widening of current account imbalances was largely driven by systemic economies. Surpluses in Japan, the euro area and China grew, supported by improved terms of trade and currency depreciation, while the current account deficit in the U.S. widened amid the steep appreciation of the USD. These widening imbalances were only partially offset by narrowing surpluses in large oil exporters and smaller deficits in vulnerable EMs and some euro area debtor countries. Similarly, excess imbalances expanded in 2015. External positions in the U.S. and Japan moved from being broadly in line with fundamentals to being “moderately weaker” and “moderately stronger”, respectively. This was partly offset by a further narrowing of excess deficits in vulnerable EMs and euro area debtor countries. Meanwhile, excess surpluses persisted among the larger surplus countries, some of which remain “substantially stronger” than fundamentals (Germany, Korea). Currency movements since end-2015 helped to partially reverse the trends observed last year, although market volatility following the result of the U.K. referendum to leave the European Union have led to a strengthening of the USD and yen along with a weakening of the sterling, euro, and EM currencies. The implications for external assessments going forward, especially for the U.K. and the euro area, remains uncertain and will likely depend on how the transition is managed and on what new arrangements are adopted. With output below potential in most countries, and limited policy space in many, balancing internal and external objectives will require careful policy calibration. In general, a more balanced policy mix that avoids excessive reliance on policies with significant demanddiverting effects is necessary, with greater emphasis on demand-supportive measures and structural reforms. Surplus countries with fiscal space have a greater role to play in supporting global demand while reducing external imbalances. Global collective policy action, especially if downside risks materialize, would also help address global demand weakness while mitigating its effects on external imbalances.
Download or read book 2013 Pilot External Sector Report written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-20 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF’s Second Pilot External Sector Report presents a multilaterally consistent assessment of the largest economies’ external sector positions and policies for 2012-2013 H1. The report integrates the analysis from the Fund’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance to provide a coherent assessment of exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets. The report takes into account feedback received on the previous report by placing a greater emphasis on capital flows and through further refinements to the EBA methodology. Together with the Spillover Report and Article IV consultations (with their heightened focus on spillovers), this Report is part of a continuous effort to ensure the Fund is in a good position to address the possible effects of spillovers from members’ policies on global stability and monitor the stability of members’ external sectors in a comprehensive manner.
Download or read book 2014 Pilot External Sector Report written by Internationaler Währungsfonds and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The external sector assessments use a range of methods and metrics, including the External Balance Assessment approach developed by the IMF's Research Department to estimate desirable levels of current account balances and real exchange rates (Box 3 of the 2014 Pilot External Sector Report discusses the use of this methodology). The overall assessments of external positions are based on the judgment of IMF staff drawing on the inputs provided by these model estimates and other analysis, including assessment of international reserves holdings, while taking account of relevant uncertainties. The assessments, which are multilaterally consistent, highlight the role of policies in shaping external positions.
Download or read book 2014 Pilot External Sector Report Individual Economy Assessments written by International Monetary Fund and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2014-06-26 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The external sector assessments use a range of methods and metrics, including the External Balance Assessment approach developed by the IMF’s Research Department to estimate desirable levels of current account balances and real exchange rates (Box 3 of the 2014 Pilot External Sector Report discusses the use of this methodology). The overall assessments of external positions are based on the judgment of IMF staff drawing on the inputs provided by these model estimates and other analysis, including assessment of international reserves holdings, while taking account of relevant uncertainties. The assessments, which are multilaterally consistent, highlight the role of policies in shaping external positions.
Download or read book 2017 External Sector Report written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-28 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global current account imbalances were broadly unchanged in 2016, with minor shifts adding to the reconfiguration under way since 2013. The fall in commodity prices, uneven cyclical recoveries in systemic economies, and differences in policy responses contributed to the rotation of imbalances. Current account surpluses of oil-exporting economies, as a group, shifted from large surpluses to small deficits, while deficits in emerging and developing economies narrowed markedly. At the same time, surpluses and deficits in key advanced economies widened. These trends were generally supported by real exchange rate movements. Overall excess current account imbalances (i.e., deficits or surpluses that deviate from desirable levels) represented about one-third of total global imbalances in 2016, remaining broadly unchanged since 2013, although increasingly concentrated in advanced economies. In particular, excess imbalances narrowed in emerging and developing economies, led by a smaller excess surplus in China and smaller excess deficits in others (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey). This narrowing, however, was accompanied by a widening of excess imbalances in some advanced economies. The persistence of large excess surpluses in several advanced economies (e.g. Germany, Korea, the Netherlands, Singapore, Sweden) remains a distinguishing feature of the constellation of imbalances, an issue that is explored in greater detail in this year’s report. Persistent global excess imbalances suggest that automatic adjustment mechanisms are weak. While the rotation of excess imbalances toward advanced economies—with deficits increasingly concentrated in the United States and United Kingdom—likely entails lower deficit-financing risks in the near term, the increased concentration of deficits in a few economies carries greater risks of disruptive trade policy actions. Diverging stock positions coupled with continued overreliance on demand from debtor countries could also pose risks to global growth and raise the likelihood of disruptive adjustments down the road. With nearly-closed output gaps in most systemic economies, addressing external imbalances in a growth-friendly fashion requires a recalibration of the policy mix in deficit and surplus economies alike. Excess deficit countries should move forward with fiscal consolidation, while gradually normalizing monetary policy in tandem with inflation developments. Excess surplus economies with fiscal space should reduce their reliance on easy monetary policy and allow for greater fiscal stimulus. Where monetary policy is constrained from playing a role, as in individual euro area members, fiscal and structural policies to facilitate relative price adjustments should take priority. Meanwhile, structural policies in excess surplus countries should focus on lifting distortions that constrain domestic demand or limit trade competition; while in excess deficit economies, policies should be directed to improving external competitiveness and overall saving. Protectionist and mercantilist policies should be avoided as they are detrimental to global growth.
Download or read book External Sector Report 2021 written by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-02 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Produced since 2012, the IMF’s annual External Sector Report analyzes global external developments and provides multilaterally consistent assessments of external positions, including current accounts, real exchange rates, external balance sheets, capital flows, and international reserves, of the world’s largest economies, representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Chapter 1 discusses the evolution of global external positions in 2020, external developments throughout the COVID-19 crisis, and policy priorities for reducing excess imbalances over the medium term. Chapter 2 analyzes how the unprecedented fiscal support provided in response to the COVID-19 crisis has affected external positions at the individual and global level. It also focuses on how withdrawal of such support will impact external positions in the medium term. Chapter 3, “Individual Economy Assessments,” provides details on the different aspects of the overall external assessment and associated policy recommendations for 30 economies. This year’s report and associated external assessments are based on the latest vintage of the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology and on data and IMF staff projections as of June 30, 2021.
Download or read book External Sector Report July 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-17 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF’s 2019 External Sector Report shows that global current account balances stand at about 3 percent of global GDP. Of this, about 35–45 percent are now deemed excessive. Meanwhile, net credit and debtor positions are at historical peaks and about four times larger than in the early 1990s. Short-term financing risks from the current configuration of external imbalances are generally contained, as debtor positions are concentrated in reserve-currency-issuing advanced economies. An intensification of trade tensions or a disorderly Brexit outcome—with further repercussions for global growth and risk aversion—could, however, affect other economies that are highly dependent on foreign demand and external financing. With output near potential in most systemic economies, a well-calibrated macroeconomic and structural policy mix is necessary to support rebalancing. Recent trade policy actions are weighing on global trade flows, investment, and growth, including through confidence effects and the disruption of global supply chains, with no discernible impact on external imbalances thus far.
Download or read book Peru written by Alejandro M. Werner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-16 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Peru stands out among Latin American countries as an example of successful economic reforms over the past decade. This comprehensive look at Peru's economy traces that country's journey from a debt crisis in the 1980s to having buffers in place that allowed it to emerge unscathed from the global financial crisis. The book examines the steps Peru undertook to achieve these results and extracts lessons to be learned. Chapters are written by IMF staff and Peruvian economists.
Download or read book International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2016 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-26 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The year was marked by difficult challenges and milestone achievements. To reinvigorate modest growth at a time of uncertainty about a complicated global economy, the IMF membership endorsed a three-pronged approach of monetary, fiscal, and structural policies to get the world economy back on a stronger and safer growth track. Highlights of the IMF’s work during the year included entry into effect of its quota and governance reforms approved in 2010, which increase the Fund’s core resources and make it more representative of the membership; commitments for increased financial support, policy advice, expertise, and training to help low-income developing countries achieve the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals; analysis of the international monetary system; inclusion of the Chinese currency in the basket of currencies that make up the Special Drawing Right; and policy advice on the economic repercussions of mass migration of refugees from Syria and other conflict-afflicted states. The IMF Annual Report, which covers the period May 1, 2015 to April 30, 2016, discusses all of these issues, plus a wide range of policy matters that the Executive Board addressed during the year.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-06 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, including those associated with commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility. A special feature examines in detail causes and implications of the recent commodity price downturn; analytical chapters look at the effects of commodity windfalls on potential output and of exchange rate movements on trade.
Download or read book 2013 Pilot External Sector Report written by Internationaler Währungsfonds and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Pilot External Sector Report (ESR) provides a multilaterally consistent analysis of the external positions of major world economies. Following the recommendations of thea2011 Triennial Surveillance Reviewaand the Managing Director'saStatement on Strengthening Surveillance, the focus of the analysis has been broadened beyond exchange rates to detailed examinations of current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets. It draws upon the Research Department's past and new methods for assessing current accounts and real exchange rates (see Appendix I), and on previous IMF analytical work on exchange rates, capital flows and measures, and reserves adequacy.
Download or read book External Sector Report July 2018 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-23 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The External Sector Report presents a methodologically consistent assessment of the exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets of the world’s largest economies. The 2018 edition includes an analytical assessment of how trade costs and related policy barriers drive excess global imbalances.
