Download or read book World Economic Primacy 1500 1990 written by Charles P. Kindleberger and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1996-01-25 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Charles Kindleberger's World Economic Primacy: 1500-1990 is a work of rare ambition and scope from one of our most respected economic historians. Extending over broad ranges of both history and geography, the work considers what it is that enables countries to achieve, at some period in their history, economic superiority over other countries, and what it is that makes them decline. Kindleberger begins with the Italian city-states in the fourteenth century, and traces the changing evolution of world economic primacy as it moves to Portugal and Spain, to the Low countries, to Great Britain, and to the United States, addressing the question of alleged U.S. decline. Additional chapters treat France as a perennial challenger, Germany which has twice aggressively sought superiority, and Japan, which may or may not become a candidate for the role of "number one." Kindleberger suggests that the economic vitality of a given country goes through a trajectory that can usefully (thought not precisely) be compared to a human life cycle. Like human beings, the growth of a state can be cut off by accident or catastrophe short of old age; unlike human beings, however, economies can have a second birth. In World Economic Primacy, Kindleberger takes into account the influence of complex historical, social, and cultural factors that determine economic leadership. A brilliant overview of the position of nations in the world economy, World Economic Primacy conveys profound insights into the causes of the rise and decline of the world's economic powers, past and present.

Download or read book Dutch Primacy in World Trade 1585 1740 written by Jonathan I. Israel and published by Clarendon Press. This book was released on 1989-06-08 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite its small size and population, the Dutch Republic functioned as the hub of world trade, shipping, and finance for nearly two centuries. This is the first detailed account of that hegemony from its sixteenth-century origins to the final collapse of the Dutch trading system in the eighteenth century. The economic structure of the early modern world was such that the Dutch Republic, particularly Amsterdam, was able to dominate the world economy to a far greater degree than any commercial power before or since. Using archival and secondary sources, this book explains how such a small nation was able to achieve and sustain this ascendancy for so long. In particular, Professor Israel emphasizes the interaction between Dutch commercial activity in Asia, Africa, the Americas, and the Middle East, and its penetration of nearby European markets. - ;Introduction; The origins of Dutch world-trade hegemony; The breakthrough to world primacy, 1590-1609; The Twelve Years' Truce, 1609-1621; The Dutch and the crisis of the world economy, 1621-1647; The zenith, 1647-1672; Beyond the zenith, 1672-1700; The Dutch world entrep--ocirc--;t and the conflict of the Spanish succession, 1700-1713; Decline relative and absolute, 1713-1740; Afterglow and final collapse; Conclusion -

Download or read book World Out of Balance written by Stephen G. Brooks and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2008-07-21 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction -- Realism, balance-of-power theory, and the counterbalancing constraint -- Realism, balance-of-threat theory, and the "soft balancing" constraint -- Liberalism, globalization, and constraints derived from economic interdependence -- Institutionalism and the constraint of reputation -- Constructivism and the constraint of legitimacy -- A new agenda

Download or read book Taming American Power The Global Response to U S Primacy written by Stephen M. Walt and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2006-09-17 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finalist for the 2006 Gelber Prize: "A brilliant contribution to the American foreign policy debate."—Anatol Lieven, New York Times Book Review At a time when America's dominance abroad was being tested like never before, Taming American Power provided for the first time a "rigorous critique of current U.S. strategy" (Washington Post Book World) from the vantage point of its fiercest opponents. Stephen M. Walt examines America's place as the world's singular superpower and the strategies that rival states have devised to counter it. Hailed as a "landmark book" by Foreign Affairs, Taming American Power makes the case that this ever-increasing tide of opposition not only could threaten America's ability to achieve its foreign policy goals today but also may undermine its dominant position in years to come.

Download or read book Stakeholder Capitalism written by Klaus Schwab and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-01-27 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reimagining our global economy so it becomes more sustainable and prosperous for all Our global economic system is broken. But we can replace the current picture of global upheaval, unsustainability, and uncertainty with one of an economy that works for all people, and the planet. First, we must eliminate rising income inequality within societies where productivity and wage growth has slowed. Second, we must reduce the dampening effect of monopoly market power wielded by large corporations on innovation and productivity gains. And finally, the short-sighted exploitation of natural resources that is corroding the environment and affecting the lives of many for the worse must end. The debate over the causes of the broken economy—laissez-faire government, poorly managed globalization, the rise of technology in favor of the few, or yet another reason—is wide open. Stakeholder Capitalism: A Global Economy that Works for Progress, People and Planet argues convincingly that if we don't start with recognizing the true shape of our problems, our current system will continue to fail us. To help us see our challenges more clearly, Schwab—the Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum—looks for the real causes of our system's shortcomings, and for solutions in best practices from around the world in places as diverse as China, Denmark, Ethiopia, Germany, Indonesia, New Zealand, and Singapore. And in doing so, Schwab finds emerging examples of new ways of doing things that provide grounds for hope, including: Individual agency: how countries and policies can make a difference against large external forces A clearly defined social contract: agreement on shared values and goals allows government, business, and individuals to produce the most optimal outcomes Planning for future generations: short-sighted presentism harms our shared future, and that of those yet to be born Better measures of economic success: move beyond a myopic focus on GDP to more complete, human-scaled measures of societal flourishing By accurately describing our real situation, Stakeholder Capitalism is able to pinpoint achievable ways to deal with our problems. Chapter by chapter, Professor Schwab shows us that there are ways for everyone at all levels of society to reshape the broken pieces of the global economy and—country by country, company by company, and citizen by citizen—glue them back together in a way that benefits us all.

Download or read book The End of American World Order written by Amitav Acharya and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-04-25 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The age of Western hegemony is over. Whether or not America itself is declining, the post-war liberal world order underpinned by US military, economic and ideological primacy and supported by global institutions serving its power and purpose, is coming to an end. But what will take its place? A Chinese world order? A re-constituted form of American hegemony? A regionalized system of global cooperation, including major and emerging powers? In this timely and provocative book, Amitav Acharya offers an incisive answer to this fundamental question. While the US will remain a major force in world affairs, he argues that it has lost the ability to shape world order after its own interests and image. As a result, the US will be one of a number of anchors including emerging powers, regional forces, and a concert of the old and new powers shaping a new world order. Rejecting labels such as multipolar, apolar, or G-Zero, Acharya likens the emerging system to a multiplex theatre, offering a choice of plots (ideas), directors (power), and action (leadership) under one roof. Finally, he reflects on the policies that the US, emerging powers and regional actors must pursue to promote stability in this decentred but interdependent, multiplex world. Written by a leading scholar of the international relations of the non-Western world, and rising above partisan punditry, this book represents a major contribution to debates over the post-American era.

Download or read book Has China Won written by Kishore Mahbubani and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2020-03-31 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The defining geopolitical contest of the twenty-first century is between China and the US. But is it avoidable? And if it happens, is the outcome already inevitable? China and America are world powers without serious rivals. They eye each other warily across the Pacific; they communicate poorly; there seems little natural empathy. A massive geopolitical contest has begun. America prizes freedom; China values freedom from chaos.America values strategic decisiveness; China values patience.America is becoming society of lasting inequality; China a meritocracy.America has abandoned multilateralism; China welcomes it. Kishore Mahbubani, a diplomat and scholar with unrivalled access to policymakers in Beijing and Washington, has written the definitive guide to the deep fault lines in the relationship, a clear-eyed assessment of the risk of any confrontation, and a bracingly honest appraisal of the strengths and weaknesses, and superpower eccentricities, of the US and China.

Download or read book The Primacy of Politics written by Sheri Berman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-08-07 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political history in the industrial world has indeed ended, argues this pioneering study, but the winner has been social democracy - an ideology and political movement that has been as influential as it has been misunderstood. Berman looks at the history of social democracy from its origins in the late nineteenth century to today and shows how it beat out competitors such as classical liberalism, orthodox Marxism, and its cousins, Fascism and National Socialism by solving the central challenge of modern politics - reconciling the competing needs of capitalism and democracy. Bursting on to the scene in the interwar years, the social democratic model spread across Europe after the Second World War and formed the basis of the postwar settlement. This is a study of European social democracy that rewrites the intellectual and political history of the modern era while putting contemporary debates about globalization in their proper intellectual and historical context.

Download or read book The Hell of Good Intentions written by Stephen M. Walt and published by Macmillan + ORM. This book was released on 2018-10-16 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A provocative analysis of recent American foreign policy and why it has been plagued by disasters like the “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead of a long hoped-for era of peace and prosperity, relations with Russia and China have soured, the European Union is wobbling, nationalism and populism are on the rise, and the United States is stuck in costly and pointless wars that have squandered trillions of dollars and undermined its influence around the world. The root of this dismal record, Walt argues, is the American foreign policy establishment’s stubborn commitment to a strategy of “liberal hegemony.” Since the end of the Cold War, Republicans and Democrats alike have tried to use US power to spread democracy, open markets, and other liberal values into every nook and cranny of the planet. This strategy was doomed to fail, but its proponents in the foreign policy elite were never held accountable and kept repeating the same mistakes. Donald Trump’s erratic and impulsive style of governing, combined with a deeply flawed understanding of world politics, made a bad situation worse. The best alternative, Walt argues, is a return to the realist strategy of “offshore balancing,” which eschews regime change, nation-building, and other forms of global social engineering. The American people would surely welcome a more restrained foreign policy, one that allowed greater attention to problems here at home. Clear-eyed, candid, and elegantly written, Stephen M. Walt’s The Hell of Good Intentions offers both a compelling diagnosis of America’s recent foreign policy follies and a proven formula for renewed success. “Thought-provoking . . . This excellent analysis is cogent, accessible, and well-argued.” —Publishers Weekly (starred review)

Download or read book The Last Economic Superpower The Retreat of Globalization the End of American Dominance and What We Can Do About It written by Joseph P. Quinlan and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2010-11-19 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Risks and Rewards for the West in the Coming Multipolar World "A marked shift has occurred in the tone and assumptions surrounding our national fortune. Nowhere is this better seen than in the second generation of books dealing with America’s financial crisis, particularly Joseph P. Quinlan’s The Last Economic Superpower." New York Journal of Books The global economy, designed by Western powers with the United States as lead architect, is in the process of reconfiguration. The 2008 global financial crisis has terminated America’s reign as sole economic superpower and opened up important new spheres of influence to developing nations. Does this signal the retreat of globalization as we know it? Has an economic “cold war” already begun? Will the West ever exert the kind of control and influence it enjoyed just a few short years ago? In The Last Economic Superpower, Joseph P. Quinlan, a Wall Street veteran and expert on global economic affairs, addresses these questions and many others. Presenting his vision with refreshing clarity and objectivity, Quinlan examines: How America went from being a major creditor to the world’s largest debtor nation in only two decades Five critical issues America must face in order to prevent permanent fragmentation of the global economy What the fading appeal of Europe and Japan means for the future of globalization What China, India, and others have that the West doesn’t--and why this gives them unprecedented leverage Decisions made now will shape the course of history. The Last Economic Superpower outlines critical choices that must be made in order to recast, reinvent, and reenergize a new style of globalization. The Last Economic Superpower lays bare the issues and challenges that will decide whether the world builds a new, functional system that serves all or fragments into separate spheres of influence, which benefits no one.

Download or read book Eagle Rules written by Robert J. Lieber and published by Pearson. This book was released on 2002 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Preface p. xi About the Editor p. xvii Chapter 1 Foreign Policy and American Primacy Robert J. Lieber p. 1 Three Propositions about America's World Role p. 3 Reversible Assumptions? p. 12 Implications for Foreign Policy p. 14 Part I The Eagle at Home Chapter 2 Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Ole R. Holsti p. 16 Internationalism or Isolationism p. 18 Threats to Vital U.S. Interests p. 20 Foreign Policy Goals p. 22 Globalization, Trade, and Protectionism p. 25 Foreign Economic Assistance p. 28 Deployment of U.S. Troops Abroad p. 29 Partisanship: Persistence or Abatement? p. 34 Conclusion p. 40 Election Postscript p. 44 Chapter 3 Who Rules the Roost? Congressional-Executive Relations on Foreign Policy After the Cold War Andrew Bennett p. 47 Introduction p. 47 Presidential versus Congressional Perspectives on Foreign Policy p. 50 Historical and Post-Cold War Influences on Foreign Policy Roles p. 52 The Post-Cold War Interbranch Balance on Foreign Policy p. 56 Interbranch Relations on Trade and Finance p. 57 Foreign Policy Appointments and the Senate Confirmation Process p. 58 War Powers p. 61 The Treaty Ratification Process p. 65 Conclusions p. 67 Part II Regional Relations Chapter 4 The United States and Europe: From Primacy to Partnership? Ivo H. Daalder p. 70 The Indispensable Power p. 72 Growing Resentment of American Power p. 81 Europe's Capacity for Partnership p. 89 Europe's Outlook for Partnership p. 92 Sharing Power and Responsibility for Decisions p. 93 Towards Strategic Partnership p. 95 Chapter 5 Transforming Russia: American Policy in the 1990s Gail W. Lapidus p. 97 The Promise and the Critique p. 97 The Policy Framework p. 102 American Policy and Russia's Evolution in the 1990s p. 109 Conclusion: The Limits of Influence p. 129 Chapter 6 The United States and the Americas: Unfilled Promise at the Century's Turn Robert A. Pastor p. 133 The Bush-Clinton Agenda p. 135 The Summit and Other Pieces of the Hemispheric Agenda p. 138 A Divided U.S. Government p. 140 The Postwar Political Template and the Clinton Paradox p. 148 Chapter 7 A Cautionary Tale: The U.S. and the Arab-Israeli Conflict Harvey Sicherman p. 152 Global Conflict to Regional Disturbance p. 154 Madrid: Ratifying U.S. Supremacy p. 156 The Parties Act, and the U.S. Rejoices p. 157 Limits of Influence p. 158 Trouble in the Gulf p. 160 Salvaging the Peace p. 161 Crisis of the End Game p. 162 Camp David II: The Three-Bluff Summit p. 164 Jerusalem Redux p. 166 Fingers in the Dike: From Paris to Sharm p. 167 Clinton's Last Hurrah--and Barak's p. 169 A Clarifying Act of Violence p. 169 The Limits of Influence p. 170 Chapter 8 Iraq and Iran: From Dual to Differentiated Containment Robert S. Litwak p. 173 Historical Background p. 175 Dual Containment of Two "Rogue States" p. 176 Iraq: Containment or Rollback? p. 180 Iran: A Revolutionary or an Ordinary State? p. 184 Implementing "Differentiated Containment": Prospects and Dilemmas p. 188 Chapter 9 Lone Eagle, Lone Dragon? How the Cold War Did Not End for China Edward Friedman p. 194 Human Rights p. 195 Economics p. 199 National Security p. 205 Taiwan p. 207 Conclusion p. 210 Chapter 10 The United States and Africa: Power with Limited Influence Donald Rothchild p. 214 American National Interests in Africa p. 216 Conclusion p. 238 Part III Security Issues Chapter 11 Defense Policy for the Twenty-First Century Cindy Williams p. 241 America's Strategic Choices p. 242 The U.S. Margin of Military Superiority Is Vast p. 244 Military Primacy and Effective Influence p. 246 Pressures on the Defense Budget p. 248 Setting New Military Priorities p. 251 Recalibrating the MTW Measuring Stick p. 254 Finding Nonmilitary Solutions to International Problems p. 260 Conventional Force Structure for the New Century p. 261 Summary p. 264 Chapter 12 Use of Force Dilemmas: Policy and Politics Bruce W. Jentleson p. 266 The National Interest Debate Redux p. 268 Policy Challenges: Ethnic Conflict Deterrence and Humanitarian Intervention Strategies p. 269 U.S. Domestic Political Constraints: How Fixed, How Flexible? p. 276 Conclusion: Difficult, but Doable p. 280 Chapter 13 Weapons Proliferation and Missile Defense: New Patterns, Tough Choices Michael Nacht p. 282 A Brief Historical Review p. 284 Further Challenges at the Century's End p. 289 Tough Policy Choices Ahead p. 291 Initial Perspectives on the Bush Administration p. 297 Part IV Globalization and Its Discontents Chapter 14 Containing Backlash: Foreign Economic Policy in an Age of Globalization Benjamin J. Cohen p. 299 Is Globalization Irreversible? p. 301 Will U.S. Primacy Endure? p. 305 Can U.S. Policy-makers Be Counted On? p. 307 International Trade p. 309 International Finance p. 317 Conclusion p. 321 Chapter 15 The Eagle and the Global Environment: The Burden of Being Essential Robert Paarlberg p. 324 A Model for Success: The 1987 Montreal Protocol p. 325 A Model for Paralysis: The Stillborn Kyoto Climate Change Agreement p. 327 Biodiversity Protection Policy: Failing to Ratify the CBD p. 333 The Price of Disengagement: National Interests Compromised in the 2000 Biosafety Protocol p. 337 Conclusion p. 340 Chapter 16 The United States and International Organizations Stanley Hoffmann p. 342 The Uses of Multilateralism p. 343 The Clinton Years p. 347 The Causes of U.S. Behavior p. 349 Index

Download or read book Unrivaled written by Michael C. Beckley and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-15 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beckley demonstrates that no country is poised to upend American primacy, not economically, not militarily, and not technologically.... The evidence he assembles should be part of any serious debate about where we are headed.― The New York Times The United States has been the world's dominant power for more than a century. Now many analysts believe that other countries are rising and the United States is in decline. Is the unipolar moment over? Is America finished as a superpower? In this book, Michael Beckley argues that the United States has unique advantages over other nations that, if used wisely, will allow it to remain the world's sole superpower throughout this century. We are not living in a transitional, post-Cold War era. Instead, we are in the midst of what he calls the unipolar era—a period as singular and important as any epoch in modern history. This era, Beckley contends, will endure because the US has a much larger economic and military lead over its closest rival, China, than most people think and the best prospects of any nation to amass wealth and power in the decades ahead. Deeply researched and brilliantly argued, this book covers hundreds of years of great power politics and develops new methods for measuring power and predicting the rise and fall of nations. By documenting long-term trends in the global balance of power and explaining their implications for world politics, the book provides guidance for policymakers, businesspeople, and scholars alike.

Download or read book No One s World written by Charles Kupchan and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2012-03 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rise of emerging powers is eclipsing not just the preeminence of the West, but also its ideological dominance. The twenty-first century will not belong to America, China, Asia, or anyone else. It will be no one's world. Charles Kupchan spells out how to capitalize on the coming diversity to fashion a consensus between the West and the rising rest.

Download or read book The Third Wave written by Samuel P. Huntington and published by University of Oklahoma Press. This book was released on 2012-09-06 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Between 1974 and 1990 more than thirty countries in southern Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and Eastern Europe shifted from authoritarian to democratic systems of government. This global democratic revolution is probably the most important political trend in the late twentieth century. In The Third Wave, Samuel P. Huntington analyzes the causes and nature of these democratic transitions, evaluates the prospects for stability of the new democracies, and explores the possibility of more countries becoming democratic. The recent transitions, he argues, are the third major wave of democratization in the modem world. Each of the two previous waves was followed by a reverse wave in which some countries shifted back to authoritarian government. Using concrete examples, empirical evidence, and insightful analysis, Huntington provides neither a theory nor a history of the third wave, but an explanation of why and how it occurred. Factors responsible for the democratic trend include the legitimacy dilemmas of authoritarian regimes; economic and social development; the changed role of the Catholic Church; the impact of the United States, the European Community, and the Soviet Union; and the "snowballing" phenomenon: change in one country stimulating change in others. Five key elite groups within and outside the nondemocratic regime played roles in shaping the various ways democratization occurred. Compromise was key to all democratizations, and elections and nonviolent tactics also were central. New democracies must deal with the "torturer problem" and the "praetorian problem" and attempt to develop democratic values and processes. Disillusionment with democracy, Huntington argues, is necessary to consolidating democracy. He concludes the book with an analysis of the political, economic, and cultural factors that will decide whether or not the third wave continues. Several "Guidelines for Democratizers" offer specific, practical suggestions for initiating and carrying out reform. Huntington's emphasis on practical application makes this book a valuable tool for anyone engaged in the democratization process. At this volatile time in history, Huntington's assessment of the processes of democratization is indispensable to understanding the future of democracy in the world.

Download or read book A New Foreign Policy written by Jeffrey D. Sachs and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2018-10-02 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this sobering analysis of American foreign policy under Trump, the award-winning economist calls for a new approach to international engagement. The American Century began in 1941 and ended in 2017, on the day of President Trump’s inauguration. The subsequent turn toward nationalism and “America first” unilateralism did not made America great. It announced the abdication of our responsibilities in the face of environmental crises, political upheaval, mass migration, and other global challenges. As a result, America no longer dominates geopolitics or the world economy as it once did. In this incisive and passionate book, Jeffrey D. Sachs provides the blueprint for a new foreign policy that embraces global cooperation, international law, and aspirations for worldwide prosperity. He argues that America’s approach to the world must shift from military might and wars of choice to a commitment to shared objectives of sustainable development. A New Foreign Policy explores both the danger of the “America first” mindset and the possibilities for a new way forward, proposing timely and achievable plans to foster global economic growth, reconfigure the United Nations for the twenty-first century, and build a multipolar world that is prosperous, peaceful, fair, and resilient.

Download or read book Government and the American Economy written by Price V. Fishback and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-09-15 with total page 634 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The American economy has provided a level of well-being that has consistently ranked at or near the top of the international ladder. A key source of this success has been widespread participation in political and economic processes. In The Government and the American Economy, leading economic historians chronicle the significance of America’s open-access society and the roles played by government in its unrivaled success story. America’s democratic experiment, the authors show, allowed individuals and interest groups to shape the structure and policies of government, which, in turn, have fostered economic success and innovation by emphasizing private property rights, the rule of law, and protections of individual freedom. In response to new demands for infrastructure, America’s federal structure hastened development by promoting the primacy of states, cities, and national governments. More recently, the economic reach of American government expanded dramatically as the populace accepted stronger limits on its economic freedoms in exchange for the increased security provided by regulation, an expanded welfare state, and a stronger national defense.

Download or read book The Grand Chessboard written by Zbigniew Brzezinski and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2016-12-06 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bestselling author and eminent foreign policy scholar Zbigniew Brzezinski's classic book on American's strategic mission in the modern world. In The Grand Chessboard, renowned geostrategist Zbigniew Brzezinski delivers a brutally honest and provocative vision for American preeminence in the twenty-first century. The task facing the United States, he argues, is to become the sole political arbiter in Eurasian lands and to prevent the emergence of any rival power threatening our material and diplomatic interests. The Eurasian landmass, home to the greatest part of the globe's population, natural resources, and economic activity, is the "grand chessboard" on which America's supremacy will be ratified and challenged in the years to come. In this landmark work of public policy and political science, Brzezinski outlines a groundbreaking and powerful blueprint for America's vital interests in the modern world. In this revised edition, Brzezinski addresses recent global developments including the war in Ukraine, the re-emergence of Russia, and the rise of China.