Download or read book World Commodity Prices as a Forecasting Tool for Retail Prices written by Mr.John Thornton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-06-01 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates, using cointegration and Granger-causality techniques, whether a stable long-run co-movement exists between world commodity prices and U.K. retail prices, and whether short-run changes in commodity prices convey information about future movements in U.K. retail prices. The results show noncointegration and no unidirectional Granger causality from commodity to retail prices. These findings suggest that little may be gained from using developments in commodity prices to forecast movements in retail prices in the inflation-targeting framework followed by the U.K. monetary authorities.
Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices written by Walter C. Labys and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.
Download or read book Commodity Price Forecasts and Futures Prices written by Boum-Jong Choe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1990 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Price forecasting Techniques and Their Application to Minerals and Metals in the Global Economy written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Comovement in Commodity Prices written by Mr.Ron Alquist and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-05 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.
Download or read book Forecasting and Analyzin World Commodity Prices written by René Lalonde and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. Commodity Prices and Markets advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. The ability to forecast commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policy makers interested in the field.
Download or read book Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis written by Walter C. Labys and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1984 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Commodity Prices written by Harry Jiler and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides background to help forecasting price movements in twenty different commodity future markets and studies the price forecasting with the aid of charts.
Download or read book Global Commodity Markets written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices written by Bank of Canada and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book IMF Staff papers Volume 44 No 3 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-01-01 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the case of Mexico to examine determinants of banking system fragility. The paper tests empirically the proposition that bank fragility is determined by bank-specific factors, macroeconomic conditions, and potential contagion effects. The methodology allows the variables that determine bank failure to differ from those that influence banks’ time to failure (or survival rate). Based on the indicators of fragility of individual banks, the paper constructs an index of fragility for the banking system. The framework is applied to the Mexican financial crisis that began in 1994.
Download or read book Commodity Modeling and Pricing written by Peter V. Schaeffer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-10-06 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity Modeling and Pricing provides extensions and applications of state-of-the-art methods for analyzing resource commodity behavior. Drawing from the seminal work of Professor Walter Labys on the development of econometric methods for forecasting commodity prices, this collection of essays features expert contributors ranging from practitioners in private industry, public sector, and nongovernmental organizations to scholars in higher education–all of whom were Labys's former students or collaborators. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Commodity Modeling and Pricing contains the information you need to excel in this demanding environment.
Download or read book Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis written by Walter C. Labys and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2024-02-01 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1984 this book remains as relevant as when it was first published. At that time the oil crises of the 1970s and the growing international debt burden highlighted the extent to which events in primary commodity markets continue to influence the economies of developing and industrialized economies alike. Commodity modelling has become a valuable tool in efforts to predict and understand the behaviour of commodity markets and thereby reduce their fluctuations. This book provides an overview of the nature of the different types of commodity model as well as their diverse applications. In non-technical language the reader is introduced to the underlying modelling methodologies, including their advantages, limitations and commodity specific implications. The book will be of interest to commodity economists, traders and analysts, economic planners and those involved in agricultural, mineral and energy modelling.
Download or read book Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices written by René Lalonde and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks written by Mikidadu Mohammed and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-11-25 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Commodity Price Forecasts written by Boum Jong Choe and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasts for the primary commodity market by the Bank's International Commodity Markets Division - with significant but not excessive adaptation to spot- price movements - probably are reasonable, optimal short- term forecasts, superior to "naive" forecasts or futures prices.
