Download or read book Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by . This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

Download or read book The Fat Tail written by Ian Bremmer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-05-13 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests." --Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist

Download or read book Fat tailed Distributions written by Roger M. Cooke and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Fat Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions written by Svetlozar T. Rachev and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-09-15 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While mainstream financial theories and applications assume that asset returns are normally distributed, overwhelming empirical evidence shows otherwise. Yet many professionals don’t appreciate the highly statistical models that take this empirical evidence into consideration. Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions examines this dilemma and offers readers a less technical look at how portfolio selection, risk management, and option pricing modeling should and can be undertaken when the assumption of a non-normal distribution for asset returns is violated. Topics covered in this comprehensive book include an extensive discussion of probability distributions, estimating probability distributions, portfolio selection, alternative risk measures, and much more. Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions provides a bridge between the highly technical theory of statistical distributional analysis, stochastic processes, and econometrics of financial returns and real-world risk management and investments.

Download or read book Extreme Events written by Malcolm Kemp and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-10-04 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Taking due account of extreme events when constructing portfolios of assets or liabilities is a key discipline for market professionals. Extreme events are a fact of life in how markets operate. In Extreme Events: Robust Portfolio Construction in the Presence of Fat Tails, leading expert Malcolm Kemp shows readers how to analyse market data to uncover fat-tailed behaviour, how to incorporate expert judgement in the handling of such information, and how to refine portfolio construction methodologies to make portfolios less vulnerable to extreme events or to benefit more from them. This is the only text that combines a comprehensive treatment of modern risk budgeting and portfolio construction techniques with the specific refinements needed for them to handle extreme events. It explains in a logical sequence what constitutes fat-tailed behaviour and why it arises, how we can analyse such behaviour, at aggregate, sector or instrument level, and how we can then take advantage of this analysis. Along the way, it provides a rigorous, comprehensive and clear development of traditional portfolio construction methodologies applicable if fat-tails are absent. It then explains how to refine these methodologies to accommodate real world behaviour. Throughout, the book highlights the importance of expert opinion, showing that even the most data-centric portfolio construction approaches ultimately depend on practitioner assumptions about how the world might behave. The book includes: Key concepts and methods involved in analysing extreme events A comprehensive treatment of mean-variance investing, Bayesian methods, market consistent approaches, risk budgeting, and their application to manager and instrument selection A systematic development of the refinements needed to traditional portfolio construction methodologies to cater for fat-tailed behaviour Latest developments in stress testing and back testing methodologies A strong focus on the practical implementation challenges that can arise at each step in the process and on how to overcome these challenges “Understanding how to model and analyse the risk of extreme events is a crucial part of the risk management process. This book provides a set of techniques that allow practitioners to do this comprehensively.” Paul Sweeting, Professor of Actuarial Science, University of Kent “How can the likeliness of crises affect the construction of portfolios? This question is highly topical in times where we still have to digest the last financial collapse. Malcolm Kemp gives the answer. His book is highly recommended to experts as well as to students in the financial field.” Christoph Krischanitz, President Actuarial Association of Austria, Chairman WG “Market Consistency” of Groupe Consultatif

Download or read book The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails written by Jayakrishnan Nair and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-06-09 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Heavy tails –extreme events or values more common than expected –emerge everywhere: the economy, natural events, and social and information networks are just a few examples. Yet after decades of progress, they are still treated as mysterious, surprising, and even controversial, primarily because the necessary mathematical models and statistical methods are not widely known. This book, for the first time, provides a rigorous introduction to heavy-tailed distributions accessible to anyone who knows elementary probability. It tackles and tames the zoo of terminology for models and properties, demystifying topics such as the generalized central limit theorem and regular variation. It tracks the natural emergence of heavy-tailed distributions from a wide variety of general processes, building intuition. And it reveals the controversy surrounding heavy tails to be the result of flawed statistics, then equips readers to identify and estimate with confidence. Over 100 exercises complete this engaging package.

Download or read book The Logic and Statistics of Fat Tails written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Penguin Press. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Logic and Statistics of Fat Tails is the definitive source on fat-tailed distribution and an essential technical read for students, accountants and those working in finance.

Download or read book Real World Decision Making written by Morris Altman and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2015-06-23 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first and only encyclopedia to focus on the economic and financial behaviors of consumers, investors, and organizations, including an exploration of how people make good—and bad—economic decisions. Traditional economic theories speculate how and when people should spend money. But consumers don't always behave as expected and often adopt strategies that might appear unorthodox yet are, at times, more effective than the rule prescribed by conventional wisdom. This groundbreaking text examines the ways in which people make financial decisions, whether it is because they are smart but atypical in their choices ... or just irrational decision makers. A leading authority on behavioral economics, Morris Altman and more than 150 expert contributors delve into key concepts in behavioral economics, economic psychology, behavioral finance, neuroeconomics, experimental economics, and institutional economics to help inform economic models based on reality, not theory. Through 250 informative entries, the book explores various aspects of the subject including decision making, economic analysis, and public policy. In addition to introducing concepts to readers new to the subject, the book sheds light on more advanced financial topics in a manner that is objective, comprehensive, and accessible.

Download or read book Do Dice Play God written by Ian Stewart and published by Profile Books. This book was released on 2019-06-06 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is everywhere. It lurks in every consideration of the future - the weather, the economy, the sex of an unborn child - even quantities we think that we know such as populations or the transit of the planets contain the possibility of error. It's no wonder that, throughout that history, we have attempted to produce rigidly defined areas of uncertainty - we prefer the surprise party to the surprise asteroid. We began our quest to make certain an uncertain world by reading omens in livers, tea leaves, and the stars. However, over the centuries, driven by curiosity, competition, and a desire be better gamblers, pioneering mathematicians and scientists began to reduce wild uncertainties to tame distributions of probability and statistical inferences. But, even as unknown unknowns became known unknowns, our pessimism made us believe that some problems were unsolvable and our intuition misled us. Worse, as we realized how omnipresent and varied uncertainty is, we encountered chaos, quantum mechanics, and the limitations of our predictive power. Bestselling author Professor Ian Stewart explores the history and mathematics of uncertainty. Touching on gambling, probability, statistics, financial and weather forecasts, censuses, medical studies, chaos, quantum physics, and climate, he makes one thing clear: a reasonable probability is the only certainty.

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics written by John Geweke and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2011-09-29 with total page 571 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing.

Download or read book Applied Financial Econometrics written by Moinak Maiti and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-08-31 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook gives students an approachable, down to earth resource for the study of financial econometrics. While the subject can be intimidating, primarily due to the mathematics and modelling involved, it is rewarding for students of finance and can be taught and learned in a straightforward way. This book, going from basics to high level concepts, offers knowledge of econometrics that is intended to be used with confidence in the real world. This book will be beneficial for both students and tutors who are associated with econometrics subjects at any level.

Download or read book The Oxford Companion to Food written by Alan Davidson and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2006-09-21 with total page 1944 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Companion to Food by Alan Davidson, first published in 1999, became, almost overnight, an immense success, winning prizes and accolades around the world. Its combination of serious food history, culinary expertise, and entertaining serendipity, with each page offering an infinity of perspectives, was recognized as unique. The study of food and food history is a new discipline, but one that has developed exponentially in the last twenty years. There are now university departments, international societies, learned journals, and a wide-ranging literature exploring the meaning of food in the daily lives of people around the world, and seeking to introduce food and the process of nourishment into our understanding of almost every compartment of human life, whether politics, high culture, street life, agriculture, or life and death issues such as conflict and war. The great quality of this Companion is the way it includes both an exhaustive catalogue of the foods that nourish humankind - whether they be fruit from tropical forests, mosses scraped from adamantine granite in Siberian wastes, or body parts such as eyeballs and testicles - and a richly allusive commentary on the culture of food, whether expressed in literature and cookery books, or as dishes peculiar to a country or community. The new edition has not sought to dim the brilliance of Davidson's prose. Rather, it has updated to keep ahead of a fast-moving area, and has taken the opportunity to alert readers to new avenues in food studies.

Download or read book Financial Risk Management For Dummies written by Aaron Brown and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-10-07 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Take the risk out of financial risk management Written by bestselling author and past winner of the GARP Award's Risk Manager of the Year, Aaron Brown, Financial Risk Management For Dummies offers thorough and accessible guidance on successfully managing and controlling financial risk within your company. Through easy-to-follow instruction, you'll find out how to manage risk, firstly by understanding it, and then by taking control of it. Plus, you'll discover how to measure and value financial risk, set limits, stop losses, control drawdowns and hedge bets. Financial risk management uses financial instruments to manage exposure to risk within firms, large and small—particularly credit risk and market risk. From managing and measuring risk to working in financial institutions and knowing how to communicate risk to your company and clients, Financial Risk Management For Dummies makes it easy to make sense of the management of risk when working in various different financial institutions and concludes by covering the topic of how to communicate risk — how to report it properly and how to deal with and comply with all of the regulations. Covers managing risk and working as a financial risk manager Provides everything you need to know about measuring financial risk Walks you through working in financial institutions Demonstrates how to communicate risk If you work in the financial sector and want to make financial risk management your mission, you've come to the right place!

Download or read book New Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence written by Takashi Washio and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-06-27 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the joint post-proceedings of five international workshops organized by the Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence, during the 19th Annual Conference JSAI 2005. The volume includes 5 award winning papers of the main conference, along with 40 revised full workshop papers, covering such topics as logic and engineering of natural language semantics, learning with logics, agent network dynamics and intelligence, conversational informatics and risk management systems with intelligent data analysis.

Download or read book Ships and Offshore Structures XIX written by Carlos Guedes Soares and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-09-03 with total page 976 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This three-volume work presents the proceedings from the 19th International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress held in Cascais, Portugal on 7th to 10th September 2015. The International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress (ISSC) is a forum for the exchange of information by experts undertaking and applying marine structural research.The aim of

Download or read book Tactical Portfolios written by Bailey McCann and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-03-04 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Take an active management approach with liquid alternatives to increase R.O.I. Take advantage of inefficiencies in the market by investing in alternative assets. Hedge fund and private equity investment diversifies your portfolio and helps shield you from market volatility, allowing your more passive assets to work the long game. In Tactical Portfolios: Strategies and Tactics for Investing in Hedge Funds and Liquid Alternatives, author Bailey McCann guides you through the principles of hedge fund investment and the associated philosophies of risk management strategies. McCann's background in reporting and analyzing government policy and regulatory issues positions her as a valuable source of strategic investment advice. As Senior Editor of Opalesque's Alternative Market Briefing, her take on the market is read by every one of the top 100 hedge fund managers on a daily basis. In Tactical Portfolios: Strategies and Tactics for Investing in Hedge Funds and Liquid Alternatives, McCann goes in-depth on important topics. Strategies for equities, managed futures and fixed income What to expect and common misconceptions Investment mechanics of specific strategies Valuation, red flags, and regulatory changes If your passive approach has failed to produce the desired results, liquid alternative investment may be the answer. While long/short will always be around, external forces can change its impact on your portfolio and it may be time to expand your investment arsenal. Tactical Portfolios: Strategies and Tactics for Investing in Hedge Funds and Liquid Alternatives will help you get the most out of any market.

Download or read book Leopard and Fat Tailed Geckos written by Richard D. Bartlett and published by B.E.S. Publishing. This book was released on 1999 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how to choose, house, feed, and breed a pet gecko.