Download or read book Uncertainty Estimation of Extreme Precipitations Under Climate Change written by Tarana Aftab Solaiman and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology at watershed scale incorporates (a) downscaling of global scale climatic variables into local scale hydrologic variables and (b) assessment of future hydrologic extremes. Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCM) are designed to simulate time series of future climate responses accounting for human induced greenhouse gas emissions. The present study addresses the following limitations of climate change impact research: (i) limited availability of observed historical information; (ii) limited research on the detection of changes in hydrologic extremes; and (iii) coarse spatio-temporal resolution of AOGCMs for use at regional or local scale. Downscaled output from a single AOGCM with a single emission scenario represents only a single trajectory of all possible future climate realizations and cannot be representative of the full extent of climate change. Present research, therefore addresses the following questions: (i) how should the AOGCM outputs be selected to assess the severity of extreme climate events?; (ii) should climate research adopt equal weights from AOGCM outputs to generate future climate?; and (iii) what is the probability of the future extreme events to be more severe? Assessment of regional reanalysis hydroclimatic data has shown promising potential as an addition to the observed data in data scarce regions. A new approach using statistical downscaling based nonparametric datadriven kernel estimator is developed for quantifying uncertainties from multiple AOGCMs and emission scenarios. The results are compared with a Bayesian reliability ensemble average method. The generated future climate scenarios represent the nature and progression of uncertainties from several global climate models and their emission scenarios. Treating the extreme precipitation indices as independent realization at every time step, the kernel estimator provides variable weights to the multi-model quantification of uncertainties. The probabilities of the extreme indices have added useful insight into future climate conditions. Finally, the current method of developing future rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves is extended by introducing a probabilistic weighted curve to include AOGCM and emission scenario uncertainties using the plug-in kernel. Present research has thus expanded the existing knowledge of dealing with the uncertainties of extreme events.
Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Download or read book Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research written by Douglas Maraun and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-01-18 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and practical guide, providing technical background and user context for researchers, graduate students, practitioners and decision makers. This book presents the main approaches and describes their underlying assumptions, skill and limitations. Guidelines for the application of downscaling and the use of downscaled information in practice complete the volume.
Download or read book Weather and Climate Extremes written by Thomas R. Karl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 343 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are extreme weather events becoming more common? How do extreme weather events impact society? These are critical questions that must be examined as we confront the possibility that the world will experience a change in climate over the next century. Much of the research in climatology over the past decade has focused on potential changes in long- term averages of temperature, precipitation and other factors. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that changes in average values will be accompanied by changes in extreme events. Furthermore, extreme weather events will impact society to a greater extent as people around the world continue to locate in more hazard-prone areas such as coastal zones. This book represents a major step forwards in developing a comprehensive set of information about changes in extreme events by providing a review of the problems in data availability, quality and analysis that make deriving a clear picture of world-wide changes in extreme events so difficult. Audience: The book is intended for policy-makers, professionals, graduate students and others interested in learning how extreme weather events have changed, and how they impact society both now and in the future.
Download or read book Atmospheric Rivers written by F. Martin Ralph and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-07-10 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the standard reference based on roughly 20 years of research on atmospheric rivers, emphasizing progress made on key research and applications questions and remaining knowledge gaps. The book presents the history of atmospheric-rivers research, the current state of scientific knowledge, tools, and policy-relevant (science-informed) problems that lend themselves to real-world application of the research—and how the topic fits into larger national and global contexts. This book is written by a global team of authors who have conducted and published the majority of critical research on atmospheric rivers over the past years. The book is intended to benefit practitioners in the fields of meteorology, hydrology and related disciplines, including students as well as senior researchers.
Download or read book Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-06-18 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.
Download or read book The Global Monsoon System written by Chih-Pei Chang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 609 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a current review of the science of monsoon research and forecasting. The contents are based on the invited reviews presented at the World Meteorological Organization''s Fourth International Workshop on Monsoons in late 2008, with subsequent manuscripts revised from 2009 to early 2010. The book builds on the concept that the monsoons in various parts of the globe can be viewed as components of an integrated global monsoon system, while emphasizing that significant region-specific characteristics are present in individual monsoon regions. The topics covered include all major monsoon regions and time scales (mesoscale, synoptic, intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and climate change). It is intended to provide an updated comprehensive review of the current status of knowledge, modeling capability, and future directions in the research of monsoon systems around the world.
Download or read book Regional Frequency Analysis written by J. R. M. Hosking and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1997-04-28 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the first complete account of the L-moment approach to regional frequency analysis of environmental extremes.
Download or read book Constraints On and Attribution Of Changes in Extreme Precipitation Under Climate Change written by Pardeep Pall and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources written by Komaragiri Srinivasa Raju and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-12-29 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gives an overview of various aspects of climate change by integrating global climate models, downscaling approaches, and hydrological models. It also covers themes that help in understanding climate change in a holistic manner. The book includes worked-out examples, revision questions, exercise problems, and case studies, making it relevant for use as a textbook in graduate courses and professional development programs. The book will serve well researchers, students, as well as professionals working in the area of hydroclimatology.
Download or read book Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-05-28 with total page 593 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
Download or read book Changes in Flood Risk in Europe written by Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-04-30 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book delivers a wealth of information on changes in flood risk in Europe, and considers causes for change. The temporal coverage is mostly focused on post-1900 events, reflecting the typical availability of data, but some information on earlier flood events is also included.
Download or read book Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region written by R. Krishnan and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-06-12 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book discusses the impact of human-induced global climate change on the regional climate and monsoons of the Indian subcontinent, adjoining Indian Ocean and the Himalayas. It documents the regional climate change projections based on the climate models used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and climate change modeling studies using the IITM Earth System Model (ESM) and CORDEX South Asia datasets. The IPCC assessment reports, published every 6–7 years, constitute important reference materials for major policy decisions on climate change, adaptation, and mitigation. While the IPCC assessment reports largely provide a global perspective on climate change, the focus on regional climate change aspects is considerably limited. The effects of climate change over the Indian subcontinent involve complex physical processes on different space and time scales, especially given that the mean climate of this region is generally shaped by the Indian monsoon and the unique high-elevation geographical features such as the Himalayas, the Western Ghats, the Tibetan Plateau and the adjoining Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal. This book also presents policy relevant information based on robust scientific analysis and assessments of the observed and projected future climate change over the Indian region.
Download or read book Climate Change Multidecadal And Beyond written by Chih-pei Chang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-08-06 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on two major challenges in the climate sciences: 1) to describe the decadal-to-centennial variations in instrumental and proxy records; and 2) to distinguish between anthropogenic variations and natural variability. The National Taiwan University invited some of the world's leading experts across the areas of observational analysis, mathematical theory, and modeling to discuss these two issues. The outcome of the meeting is the 23 chapters in this book that review the state of the art in theoretical, observational and modeling research on internal, unforced and externally forced climate variability. The main conclusion of this research is that internal climate variability on decadal and longer time scales is so large that sidestepping it may lead to false estimates of the climate's sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
Download or read book Turn Down the Heat written by A Report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Analytics. and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2013-06-19 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day, 2°C and 4°C warming on agricultural production, water resources, and coastal vulnerability. It finds many significant climate and development impacts are already being felt in some regions, and that as warming increases from present day (0.8°C) to 2°C and 4°C, multiple threats of increasing extreme heat waves, sea-level rise, more severe storms, droughts and floods are expected to have further severe negative implications for the poorest and most vulnerable. The report finds that agricultural yields will be affected across the three regions, with repercussions for food security, economic growth, and poverty reduction. In addition, urban areas have been identified as new clusters of vulnerability with urban dwellers, particularly the urban poor, facing significant vulnerability to climate change. In Sub-Saharan Africa, under 3°C global warming, savannas are projected to decrease from their current levels to approximately one-seventh of total land area and threaten pastoral livelihoods. Under 4°C warming, total hyper-arid and arid areas are projected to expand by 10 percent. In South East Asia, under 2°C warming, heat extremes that are virtually absent today would cover nearly 60-70 percent of total land area in northern-hemisphere summer, adversely impacting ecosystems. Under 4°C warming, rural populations would face mounting pressures from sea-level rise, increased tropical cyclone intensity, storm surges, saltwater intrusions, and loss of marine ecosystem services. In South Asia, the potential sudden onset of disturbances to the monsoon system and rising peak temperatures would put water and food resources at severe risk. Well before 2°C warming occurs, substantial reductions in the frequency of low snow years is projected to cause substantial reductions in dry season flow, threatening agriculture. Many of the worst climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming below 2°C, but the window for action is closing rapidly. Urgent action is also needed to build resilience to a rapidly warming world that will pose significant risks to agriculture, water resources, coastal infrastructure, and human health.
Download or read book Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in Rural West Africa written by Joseph A. Yaro and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 249 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents conceptual and empirical discussions of adaptation to climate change/variability in West Africa. Highlighting different countries’ experiences in adaptation by different socio-economic groups and efforts at building their adaptive capacity, it offers readers a holistic understanding of adaptation on the basis of contextual and generic sources of adaptive capacity. Focusing on adaptation to climate change/variability is critical because the developmental challenges West Africa faces are increasingly intertwined with its climate history. Today, climate change is a major developmental issue for agrarian rural communities with high percentages of the population earning a living directly or indirectly from the natural environment. This makes them highly vulnerable to climate-driven ecological change, in addition to threats in the broader political economic context. It is imperative that rural people adapt to climate change, but their ability to successfully do so may be limited by competing risks and vulnerabilities. As such, elucidating those vulnerabilities and sources of strength with regard to the adaptive capacities needed to support successful adaptation and avoid maladaptation is critical for future policy formulation. Though the empirical discussion is geographically based on West Africa, its applicability in terms of the processes, structures, needs, strategies, and recommendations for policy transcends the region and provides useful lessons for understanding adaptation broadly in the developing world.
Download or read book Advances in Earth Science written by Peter R. Sammonds and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2007 with total page 343 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: " ... articles originating from invited papers published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, [series A]."-- P. [4] of cover.
