Download or read book Volatility and friction in the age of disintermediation written by Tim Sweijs and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2017-02-20 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Events unfolded once again at a swirling pace in 2016. Terrorists hit Europe’s capital in March. The British population voted for Brexit in June. Turkish armed forces failed to topple Erdoğan in July. A resurgent Russia flexed its military muscles again in the Middle East and actively interfered in American elections, in which the American population elected Trump, in November. We are worried but certainly not surprised by the volatility of contemporary international relations. In previous editions of our contribution to the Dutch government’s Strategic Monitor, we already observed a surge in assertive behavior, noted a dangerous uptick in crises, and warned for the contagiousness of political violence. The current volatility is not a coincidence, but rather the result of fundamental disturbances of the global order that are greatly amplified by rapid technological developments. Most mainstream explanations of recent turbulence focus on power transitions (the decline of the West and the rise of the rest), the concomitant return to more aggressive forms of power politics, and a backlash against globalization. What strikes us is that many of the explanations ignore what we consider one of the most striking mega trends that is reshaping the dynamics of power: the ongoing process of disintermediation. The StratMon 2016-2017 analyzes global trends in confrontation, cooperation and conflict based on different datasets. This year the report also contains case studies on Turkey, Moldova and The rise and fall of ISIS. Chapters analyzing the many faces of political violence and 'the other side of the security coin' are also included.

Download or read book The Rise of Populist Sovereignism written by Stephan De Spiegeleire and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2017-09-14 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Farewell to the West written by Barin Kayaoğlu and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2017-02-20 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Still in dangerous waters since the shock of the attempted military coup in July 2016, the behavior of The Republic of Turkey – long considered an important strategic partner for the West – has become increasingly unpredictable. Could Turkey really bid “adieu” to the West in coming years, or perhaps even months? What kinds of paths lay ahead of a possible Turkish “pivot” away from the West? What does this mean for the West’s strategic interests in the region? Authored by Dr. Barin Kayaoğlu of the American University of Iraq, this year’s study entitled “A Farewell to the West? Turkey’s Possible Pivot in the Aftermath of the July 2016 Coup Attempt” explores the conditions that could lead Turkey to change its foreign policy direction in the near future, exploring four distinctive possibilities that could all have important implications for Europe, and the wider world. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

Download or read book The Rise and Fall of ISIS written by Willem Th. Oosterveld and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2017-02-20 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Appearing seemingly out of nowhere over the course of 2013-14, the Islamic State, or Daesh, captured the attention of international audiences through widely broadcast acts of barbarity, followed by the proclamation of its own state and upending state borders in the process. The rise of the terror organization has prompted many questions: where did it originate from? How has it been able to establish itself so quickly? Can it actually persist? Can it be defeated? The aim of this year’s study, entitled “The Rise and Fall of ISIS: from Evitability to Inevitability”, is to understand the organization, its motivations, its inherent weaknesses, as well as its ability to endure. A broader aim is to set out how it could develop as it comes under ever more pressure by regional powers and, in the case of its defeat, how to prevent the arrival of the next ISIS. A key message of this chapter is that ISIS is a ‘child of its time’ and is not destined to persist. Its professed millenarian or eschatological bent is meant to cast the conflict between the Caliphate and the rest of the word as a cosmic battle, but in reality is largely of instrumental value. Also, while its rise could have been prevented, its fall looks all but inevitable, even if it remains unclear what will replace it. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

Download or read book The Other Side of the Security Coin written by Nicholas Farnham and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2017-02-20 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The presence of peace is more than the absence of conflict. Analyses and evaluations of the state of the international security environment often focus solely on the most concerning developments and tend to fall back on various conflict-centric metrics when providing assessments of a given security landscape. This chapter, entitled “The Other Side of the Security Coin” investigates a number of positive socioeconomic trends occurring on a global level and how they can contribute to sustainable peace in the future. Improving citizens’ access to socioeconomic opportunities and livelihood-enhancing goods and services is a key factor in increasing the stake that citizens hold in the state of peace in their communities. Fitting within global trends such as the rise of the platform economy and social media, the role of technological and developmental processes improving individual empowerment will become more important for security and defense organizations in the near future. As to how we can leverage the dramatic changes ongoing throughout the world to better suit our security objectives remains yet to be seen. This study provides a brief overview of these trends and identifies the options for security and defense organizations to remain on top of them. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

Download or read book The Many Faces of Political Violence written by Tim Sweijs and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2017-02-20 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The modern era’s Great Power Peace has come under severe strain in recent years. The seams of the western-based world political order have stretched to the point of breaking, with non-state actors rising in response to exploit the global climate of paralysis and uncertainty. Indeed, violence levels are at historically high levels that haven’t been seen since 2004. But what does the violence waged on Europe’s borders mean for European citizens and their leaders? HCSS has analyzed trends in political violence using various open-data sources and provides a forecast of civil war onset risk for the year 2017 using in-house forecasting models based on rich quantitative datasets and complex theoretical frameworks. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

Download or read book A National Identity Crisis written by Sijbren de Jong and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2017-02-20 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Corruption and the perceived partiality of the justice system and state administration of Moldova have long frustrated efforts – both internal and external – to improve its domestic politics. It nevertheless remains an important partner for both the European Union and Russia, however its strategic positioning between these two powers have left its citizens stretched at times, even torn, in terms of national identity. Looking into recent domestic developments as well as the EU and Russia’s strategies towards Moldova in recent years, this study gives a brief overview of the European and Russian stakes held in Moldova and how its recent presidential election may change Moldova’s future geostrategic positioning. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

Download or read book Conflict and Cooperation written by Stephan De Spiegeleire and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2017-02-20 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: HCSS has tracked overall trends in global cooperation and conflict as part of its contribution to the Strategic Monitor of the Dutch government. Our study takes into consideration two overarching questions: “Will state or non-state actors be most dominant in the future world?” and “Will whoever becomes most dominant be more cooperative, or more conflictual?” Our approach to this ‘monitoring’ effort aspires to collate and curate a systematic empirical evidence base that allows all relevant stakeholders – analysts, military planners, policy-makers, but also interested companies, NGOs, citizens, etc. – to get a better grip on these fundamental international trends. With the advent of (open-source) event datasets, this has become more possible than ever. This year we updated our findings using data from three different sources and have uncovered a number of different trends. How can we leverage big data to inform policymakers on complex geopolitical trends in our new uncertain era? What are the world’s most cooperative countries? Where in the world can we find the highest concentrations of conflictual behavior? What is the Netherlands’ position in the ebb and flow of international communications? This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

Download or read book Nowcasting Geodynamics written by Stephan De Spiegeleire and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2017-02-20 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: HCSS’ original term “nowcasting” – as opposed to forecasting – describes the process of monitoring, depicting, and analyzing ongoing developments in international relations as they occur. Once again, our study “Nowcasting Geodynamics” uses a rich base of quantitative data to move beyond the anecdotal, and towards the systematic. We intend our empirical approach to add to debates across all domains – diplomatic, economics, legal, military, etc. – and across all countries, whether they are great powers such as the United States or China, or smaller but strategically important states, such as Indonesia, and Egypt. This year’s analysis covers the geodynamic trends of countries across the world and traverses the different domains in order to give perspectives on the “now” trends, and where they might lead us in the future. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

Download or read book Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Defense written by Stephan De Spiegeleire and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2017-05-17 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Artificial intelligence (AI) is on everybody’s minds these days. Most of the world’s leading companies are making massive investments in it. Governments are scrambling to catch up. Every single one of us who uses Google Search or any of the new digital assistants on our smartphones has witnessed first-hand how quickly these developments now go. Many analysts foresee truly disruptive changes in education, employment, health, knowledge generation, mobility, etc. But what will AI mean for defense and security? In a new study HCSS offers a unique perspective on this question. Most studies to date quickly jump from AI to autonomous (mostly weapon) systems. They anticipate future armed forces that mostly resemble today’s armed forces, engaging in fairly similar types of activities with a still primarily industrial-kinetic capability bundle that would increasingly be AI-augmented. The authors of this study argue that AI may have a far more transformational impact on defense and security whereby new incarnations of ‘armed force’ start doing different things in novel ways. The report sketches a much broader option space within which defense and security organizations (DSOs) may wish to invest in successive generations of AI technologies. It suggests that some of the most promising investment opportunities to start generating the sustainable security effects that our polities, societies and economies expect may lie in in the realms of prevention and resilience. Also in those areas any large-scale application of AI will have to result from a preliminary open-minded (on all sides) public debate on its legal, ethical and privacy implications. The authors submit, however, that such a debate would be more fruitful than the current heated discussions about ‘killer drones’ or robots. Finally, the study suggests that the advent of artificial super-intelligence (i.e. AI that is superior across the board to human intelligence), which many experts now put firmly within the longer-term planning horizons of our DSOs, presents us with unprecedented risks but also opportunities that we have to start to explore. The report contains an overview of the role that ‘intelligence’ - the computational part of the ability to achieve goals in the world - has played in defense and security throughout human history; a primer on AI (what it is, where it comes from and where it stands today - in both civilian and military contexts); a discussion of the broad option space for DSOs it opens up; 12 illustrative use cases across that option space; and a set of recommendations for - especially - small- and medium sized defense and security organizations.

Download or read book Playing to Your Strengths written by Tim Sweijs and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report contains the results from a research project aimed at identifying new capabilities for the future RNLA. Rather than sketch a full future force profile, it concentrates on promising new, or to be renewed capabilities.

Download or read book Flow Security and Dutch Defense and Security Policies written by Tim Sweijs and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2018-02-26 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Truth Machine written by Paul Vigna and published by Picador. This book was released on 2019-03-05 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Views differ on bitcoin, but few doubt the transformative potential of Blockchain technology. The Truth Machine is the best book so far on what has happened and what may come along. It demands the attention of anyone concerned with our economic future." —Lawrence H. Summers, Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus at Harvard, Former Treasury Secretary From Michael J. Casey and Paul Vigna, the authors of The Age of Cryptocurrency, comes the definitive work on the Internet’s Next Big Thing: The Blockchain. Big banks have grown bigger and more entrenched. Privacy exists only until the next hack. Credit card fraud is a fact of life. Many of the “legacy systems” once designed to make our lives easier and our economy more efficient are no longer up to the task. Yet there is a way past all this—a new kind of operating system with the potential to revolutionize vast swaths of our economy: the blockchain. In The Truth Machine, Michael J. Casey and Paul Vigna demystify the blockchain and explain why it can restore personal control over our data, assets, and identities; grant billions of excluded people access to the global economy; and shift the balance of power to revive society’s faith in itself. They reveal the disruption it promises for industries including finance, tech, legal, and shipping. Casey and Vigna expose the challenge of replacing trusted (and not-so-trusted) institutions on which we’ve relied for centuries with a radical model that bypasses them. The Truth Machine reveals the empowerment possible when self-interested middlemen give way to the transparency of the blockchain, while highlighting the job losses, assertion of special interests, and threat to social cohesion that will accompany this shift. With the same balanced perspective they brought to The Age of Cryptocurrency, Casey and Vigna show why we all must care about the path that blockchain technology takes—moving humanity forward, not backward.

Download or read book The Handbook of Logistics and Distribution Management written by Alan Rushton and published by Kogan Page Publishers. This book was released on 2000 with total page 612 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Designed for students, young managers and seasoned practitioners alike, this handbook explains the nuts and bolts of the modern logistics and distribution world in plain language. Illustrated throughout, this second edition includes new chapters on areas previously not covered, such as: intermodal transport; benchmarking; environmental matters; and vehicle and depot security.

Download or read book How I Became a Quant written by Richard R. Lindsey and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-11 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for How I Became a Quant "Led by two top-notch quants, Richard R. Lindsey and Barry Schachter, How I Became a Quant details the quirky world of quantitative analysis through stories told by some of today's most successful quants. For anyone who might have thought otherwise, there are engaging personalities behind all that number crunching!" --Ira Kawaller, Kawaller & Co. and the Kawaller Fund "A fun and fascinating read. This book tells the story of how academics, physicists, mathematicians, and other scientists became professional investors managing billions." --David A. Krell, President and CEO, International Securities Exchange "How I Became a Quant should be must reading for all students with a quantitative aptitude. It provides fascinating examples of the dynamic career opportunities potentially open to anyone with the skills and passion for quantitative analysis." --Roy D. Henriksson, Chief Investment Officer, Advanced Portfolio Management "Quants"--those who design and implement mathematical models for the pricing of derivatives, assessment of risk, or prediction of market movements--are the backbone of today's investment industry. As the greater volatility of current financial markets has driven investors to seek shelter from increasing uncertainty, the quant revolution has given people the opportunity to avoid unwanted financial risk by literally trading it away, or more specifically, paying someone else to take on the unwanted risk. How I Became a Quant reveals the faces behind the quant revolution, offering you?the?chance to learn firsthand what it's like to be a?quant today. In this fascinating collection of Wall Street war stories, more than two dozen quants detail their roots, roles, and contributions, explaining what they do and how they do it, as well as outlining the sometimes unexpected paths they have followed from the halls of academia to the front lines of an investment revolution.

Download or read book Monetary and Exchange System Reforms in China written by Mr.Bernard Laurens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-09-26 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1978, China embarked on a gradual but far-reaching reform of its economic system. This paper focuses on the achievements so far in reforming the financial sector, the legal framework for financial transactions, the payments system, and the monetary policy and foreign exchange system. It also analyzes the tasks ahead to achieve the goals set in these areas for the year 2000.

Download or read book The Handbook of Electronic Trading written by Joseph Rosen and published by . This book was released on 2009-06-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive look at the challenges of keeping up with liquidity needs and technology advancements. It is also a sourcebook for understandable, practical solutions on trading and technology.