Download or read book Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID 19 written by Mr. Ales Bulir and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following issues: • Evaluating the full implications from the policies adopted to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy requires a well-developed macroeconomic framework. This note illustrates how such frameworks were used to analyze Colombia and Cambodia's shock impact at the beginning of the pandemic. • The use of macroeconomic frameworks is not to infer general policy conclusions from abstract models or empirical analysis but to help policymakers think through and articulate coherent forecasts, scenarios, and policy responses. • The two country cases illustrate how to construct a baseline scenario consistent with a COVID-19 shock within structural macroeconomic models. The scenario is built gradually to incorporate the available information, the pandemic's full effects, and the policy responses. • The results demonstrate the value of combining close attention to the data, near-term forecasting, and model-based analyses to support coherent policies.

Download or read book Economic Policy and the Covid 19 Crisis written by Bernadette Andreosso-O'Callaghan and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-09-28 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an assessment of the different monetary and fiscal policy responses that have been implemented by national governments in major European and Asian countries faced with the Covid-19 crisis since 2020; it also deals with the case of the US experience as a benchmarking example. The book provides a comprehensive cross-country comparative study on health crisis management at the macroeconomic level. Its focus on monetary and fiscal policies across different countries in Asia, Europe and the USA makes it unique. Divided into three parts following a general introduction that sets the context of the study, the book deals with the case of the USA, EU and European countries as well as with that of key Asian countries. Of specific relevance is the European Union and euro-area contexts that serve as a framework to the different EU national monetary and fiscal policy responses. Each chapter deals with a specific country, including Italy and the UK in Europe and Singapore and South Korea in Asia, and covers the following topics: the extent of the outbreak of the public health crisis and its macroeconomic impact; the comparative examination of fiscal and monetary policy responses to both crises; and an overall assessment of the effectiveness of these policies along with the public health policy to mitigate the economic impact. Given the unprecedented nature of the Covid-19 crisis, anyone eager to know more about its macroeconomic impact and ensuing policies in a comparative framework will be keen to read this book. It will be essential reading to any researcher, policy maker and/or analyst working in the area of public policy and is also a unique contribution to the field of European studies, Asian studies and Comparative Economic Studies.

Download or read book COVID 19 Impact and Mitigation Policies A Didactic Epidemiological Macroeconomic Model Approach written by John P. Ansah and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-11-08 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an integrated epidemiological-macroeconomic model to analyze the interplay between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activity, as a tool for capacity building purposes. We illustrate a workhorse framework that combines a rich epidemiological model with an economic block to shed light on the tradeoffs between saving lives and preserving economic outcomes under various mitigation policies and scenarios calibrated for emerging market and developing economies. In our benchmark setup, we link the effective contact frequency and labor supply decisions to the current state of the disease progression, allowing for relevant behavioral responses that introduce multiple feedback channels. We showcase the effects of various “smart” mitigation measures, e.g. improved quarantine capacity or targeted labor market restrictions, to alleviate the tradeoffs between health-related outcomes and economic activity, including in response to a second infection wave. The discovery of treatment or vaccine, and the possibility of temporary immunity for the recovered individuals are also considered. The model is further extended to a multisector framework to analyze the sectoral allocation effects of the COVID-19 shock.

Download or read book The Economics of COVID 19 written by Moosa, Imad A. and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2021-11-16 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely book explores the neglected risk in the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic, illustrating the ways in which four decades of neoliberal economic and public policy has eroded the functional capacity of states to handle catastrophic events.

Download or read book Covid 19 and lockdown policies A structural simulation model of a bottom up recession in four countries written by Robinson, Sherman and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-04-19 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers different approaches to modelling the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic/lockdown shocks. We review different modelling strategies and argue that, given the nature of the bottom-up recession caused by the pandemic/lockdowns, simulation models of the shocks should be based on a social accounting matrix (SAM) that includes both disaggregated sectoral data and the national accounts in a unified framework. SAM-based models have been widely used to analyze the impact of natural disasters, which are comparable to pandemic/lockdown shocks. The pandemic/lockdown shocks occurred rapidly, in weeks or months, not gradually over a year or more. In such a short period, adjustments through smooth changes in wages, prices and production methods are not plausible. Rather, initial adjustments occur through changes in quantities, altering demand and supply of commodities and employment in affected sectors. In this environment, we use a linear SAM-multiplier model that specifies a fixed-coefficient production technology, linear demand system, fixed savings rates, and fixed prices. There are three different kinds of sectoral shocks that are included in the model: (1) changes in demand due to household lockdown, (2) changes in supply due to industry lockdown, and (3) changes in demand due to induced macro shocks. At the detailed industry level, data are provided for all three shocks and the model imposes the largest of the three. We applied the model on a monthly time step for the period March to June 2020 for four countries: US, UK, Mexico, and South Africa. The models closely replicate observed macro results (GDP and employment) for the period. The results provide detailed structural information on the evolution of the different economies month-by-month and provide a framework for forward-looking scenario analysis. We also use the SAM-multiplier model to estimate the macro stimulus impacts of policies to support affected households. The model focuses attention on the structural features of the economy that define the multiplier process (who gets the additional income and what do they do with it) and provides a more nuanced analysis of the stimulus impact of income support programs than can be done with aggregated macro models.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Responses to the COVID 19 Pandemic written by Neven Vidaković and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-07-17 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines economic policies utilized within Southeast Europe in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Covering countries both within and outside the European Union, the human and economic cost of the pandemic is calculated using macroeconomic models from a short and longer term perspective. The economic policies used during the pandemic are analyzed, alongside crisis management approaches, to highlight the effectiveness of monetary policy, fiscal policies and potential future economic solutions for the post COVID-19 period. This book aims to provide policy recommendations based on findings from Southeast Europe. It is relevant to researchers and policymakers involved in economic policy and the political economy, as well as anyone interested in the responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Download or read book The Economics of COVID 19 written by Badi H. Baltagi and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2022-06-01 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economics of COVID-19 contains selected contributions analysing the effects of the global pandemic on macroeconomics, computable general equilibrium models and financial markets, as well as health studies proposing to improve the traditional epidemic models.

Download or read book A Pandemic Forecasting Framework An Application of Risk Analysis written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-27 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not enough to curb other waves of infections in the future. Finally, we briefly discuss the importance of how to model re-infections in epidemiological models.

Download or read book The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID 19 written by Warwick J. McKibbin and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Economic Impacts of COVID 19 written by Raj Chetty and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies. We report daily statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, employment rates, and other key indicators disaggregated by ZIP code, industry, income group, and business size. Using these data, we study how COVID-19 affected the economy by analyzing heterogeneity in its impacts. We first show that high-income individuals reduced spending sharply in mid-March 2020, particularly in areas with high rates of COVID-19 infection and in sectors that require in-person interaction. This reduction in spending greatly reduced the revenues of small businesses in affluent ZIP codes. These businesses laid off many of their employees, leading to widespread job losses especially among low-wage workers in affluent areas. High-wage workers experienced a "V-shaped" recession that lasted a few weeks, whereas low-wage workers experienced much larger job losses that persisted for several months. Building on this diagnostic analysis, we estimate the causal effects of policies aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of COVID-19. State-ordered reopenings of economies had small impacts on spending and employment. Stimulus payments to low-income households increased consumer spending sharply, but little of this increased spending flowed to businesses most affected by the COVID-19 shock, dampening its impacts on employment. Paycheck Protection Program loans increased employment at small businesses by only 2%, implying a cost of $377,000 per job saved. These results suggest that traditional macroeconomic tools - stimulating aggregate demand or providing liquidity to businesses - have diminished capacity to restore employment when consumer spending is constrained by health concerns. During a pandemic, it may be more fruitful to mitigate economic hardship through social insurance. More broadly, this analysis shows how public statistics constructed from private sector data can support many research and policy analyses without compromising privacy, providing a new tool for empirical macroeconomics.

Download or read book Pandemic Economics written by Peter A. G. van Bergeijk and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2021-03-28 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discussing the Spanish Flu, HIV/AIDs, SARS and Ebola against the background of Covid-19, Pandemic Economics demonstrates how scientists consistently warned the world about pandemics, and how, despite this, the possibility of global lockdown caused unprecedented economic policies and ruin. The book prepares for the next pandemic, that unquestionably will arrive, the impact of which is predicted to potentially exceed that of the current Covid-19 wreckage. Highlighting how economic theory can anticipate a pandemic's impact despite the uncertainty and unreliability of traditional statistics, Peter van Bergeijk assesses the lack of preparation by international economic institutions and the ability for humanity to deeply hurt the economy by its response to infectious disease. Chapters offer an overview and critical analysis of global non-pharmaceutical interventions and economic policies in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Looking forward, the book investigates the economic impact, policy (in)effectiveness and resilience in different social contexts, illustrating a pandemic trilemma of health, freedom and the economy. It suggests how to prepare for the next pandemic at the individual level, in city planning, nationally, internationally and globally, with a focus on analysing the impact of pandemics from a global perspective. Pandemic Economics will be a stimulating read for (health) economics and development studies scholars as it provides a historic overview of the uneven impact of pandemics, with up to date studies of the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. The forward-looking suggestions for economic policies and preparations for future pandemics will also make this an important read for economic and health policy makers.

Download or read book Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID 19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States written by Sophia Chen and published by . This book was released on 2020-07-10 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use high-frequency indicators to analyze the economic impact of COVID-19 in Europe and the United States during the early phase of the pandemic. We document that European countries and U.S. states that experienced larger outbreaks also suffered larger economic losses. We also find that the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 is mostly captured by observed changes in people's mobility, while, so far, there is no robust evidence supporting additional impact from the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The deterioration of economic conditions preceded the introduction of these policies and a gradual recovery also started before formal reopening, highlighting the importance of voluntary social distancing, communication, and trust-building measures.

Download or read book The Morocco Policy Analysis Model Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios written by Aya Achour and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-30 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Morocco Policy Analysis model (MOPAM) was created in the Bank Al-Maghrib to simulate the impact of external developments, domestic macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We describe its structure and demonstrate its operation on two medium-term scenarios: (1) fiscal consolidation to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio and (2) the effects of the COVID-19 shock, including the endogenous fiscal and monetary policy response.

Download or read book Effects of COVID 19 and other shocks on Papua New Guinea s food economy A multi market simulation analysis written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country. We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1 The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation. A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.

Download or read book Addressing the COVID 19 Pandemic written by Maddalena Ferranna and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic has forced countries to make difficult ethical choices, e.g., how to balance public health and socioeconomic activity and whom to prioritize in allocating vaccines or other scarce medical resources. We discuss the implications of benefit-cost analysis, utilitarianism, and prioritarianism in evaluating COVID-19-related policies. The relative regressivity of COVID-19 burdens and control policy costs determines whether increased sensitivity to distribution supports more or less aggressive control policies. Utilitarianism and prioritarianism, in that order, increasingly favor income redistribution mechanisms compared with benefit-cost analysis. The concern for the worse-off implies that prioritarianism is more likely than utilitarianism or benefit-cost analysis to target young and socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals in the allocation of scarce vaccine doses.

Download or read book Quantifying Systemic Risk written by Joseph G. Haubrich and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.

Download or read book Monetary Policy Inflation and the Business Cycle written by Jordi Galí and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-06-09 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts