Download or read book Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade written by and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global trade has been exceptionally weak over the past four years. While global trade grew at approximately twice the rate of GDP prior to the Great Recession, the ratio of global trade to GDP growth has declined to about unity since 2012. This paper assesses to what extent the change in the relationship between global trade and global economic activity is a temporary phenomenon or constitutes a lasting change. It finds that global trade growth has been primarily dampened by two factors. First, compositional factors, including geographical shifts in economic activity and changes in the composition of aggregate demand, have weighed on the sensitivity of trade to economic activity. Second, structural developments, such as waning growth in global value chains, a rise in non-tariff protectionist measures and a declining marginal impact of financial deepening, are dampening the support from factors that boosted global trade in the past. Notwithstanding the particularly pronounced weakness in 2015 that is assessed to be mostly a temporary phenomenon owing to a number of country-specific adverse shocks, the upside potential for trade over the medium term appears to be limited. The "new normal" for global trade can therefore be expected to look broadly similar to the weakness observed over recent years on average. In this sense, buoyant trade dynamics in the 1990s and early 2000s may have been what was exceptional, rather than the slowdown over recent years.
Download or read book Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade written by and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The post-crisis weakness of global trade, which starkly contrasts with the marked acceleration in the previous two decades, has received considerable attention in the context of the global policy debate. Given the key role of trade in spreading innovation, boosting productivity and ultimately fostering economic growth, a better understanding of trade developments and outlook is crucial for policymakers. This paper takes stock of existing empirical studies on the determinants of global trade flows with particular attention given the recent slowdown. In line with our estimates, these studies suggest that a large part of the trade weakness can be explained by geographical shifts in GDP and trade shares towards less intensely-trading emerging markets, changes in the composition of demand away from import-intensive investment, and the slowdown of global value chains. Other important factors include structural changes in China, the unwinding of the commodity price boom and a slower pace of multilateral trade liberalisation. Our findings, in line with recent literature, suggest that the "new normal" is for trade expansion to remain largely in line with output growth, and unlikely to regain its pre-crisis vigour. At the same time, policymakers should ensure that the ongoing recovery is sustained, by resisting protectionism and reinvigorating the trade liberalisation agenda.
Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown written by Cristina Constantinescu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
Download or read book The Slowdown in Global Trade A Symptom of A Weak Recovery written by Aqib Aslam and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-15 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.
Download or read book Does the Post Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia written by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2016-11-18 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is at a critical juncture today. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at only 3.1 percent this year, the lowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. Investment and productivity remain subdued, despite extremely low and even negative interest rates in many economies. One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the "normal" times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today.
Download or read book America s Trade Follies written by Bernard K. Gordon and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book controversially argues that the global political economy is hardening into distinct regional blocs, which threatens American prosperity and dangers US security by dividing the globe along economic and political lines.
Download or read book Expert Knowledge in Global Trade written by Erin Hannah and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-08-27 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores tensions in global trade by examining the role of experts in generating, disseminating and legitimating knowledge about the possibilities of trade to work for global development. To this end, contributors assess authoritative claims on knowledge. They also consider structural features that uphold trade experts' monopoly over knowledge, such as expert language and legal and economic expertise. The chapters collectively explore the tensions between actors who seek to effect change and those who work to uphold the status quo, exacerbate asymmetries, and reinforce the dominant narrative of the global trade regime. The book addresses the following key overarching research questions: Who is considered to be a trade expert and how does one become a knowledge producer in global trade? How do experts acquire, disseminate and legitimate knowledge? What agendas are advanced by expert knowledge? How does the discourse generated within trade expertise serve to close off alternative institutional pathways and modes of thinking? What potential exists for the emergence of more emancipatory global trade policies from contemporary developments in the field of trade expertise? This book will be of great interest to students and scholars of IPE, Trade Politics, International Relations, and International Organizations.
Download or read book A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis written by Marc Bacchetta and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Trade flows and trade policies need to be properly quantified to describe, compare, or follow the evolution of policies between sectors or countries or over time. This is essential to ensure that policy choices are made with an appropriate knowledge of the real conditions. This practical guide introduces the main techniques of trade and trade policy data analysis. It shows how to develop the main indexes used to analyze trade flows, tariff structures, and non-tariff measures. It presents the databases needed to construct these indexes as well as the challenges faced in collecting and processing these data, such as measurement errors or aggregation bias. Written by experts with practical experience in the field, A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis has been developed to contribute to enhance developing countries' capacity to analyze and implement trade policy. It offers a hands-on introduction on how to estimate the distributional effects of trade policies on welfare, in particular on inequality and poverty. The guide is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research. An accompanying DVD contains data sets and program command files required for the exercises. Copublished by the WTO and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
Download or read book Does the Post Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand written by Patrice Ollivaud and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global trade growth over the past few years has appeared extraordinarily weak, even in relation to weak global GDP growth. This paper shows that the apparent breakdown in the relationship between global trade and global GDP growth is largely explained by two factors: an inappropriate measurement of global GDP and extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area. As a measure of demand for traded goods, global GDP at market exchange rates is more appropriate than the conventional purchasing power parity-based measure. Moreover, extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area - which is a particularly trade intensive region - has had a substantial negative effect on intra-euro area trade flows, which are commonly counted towards global trade. When global GDP is measured at market exchange rates and intra-euro area flows are removed from the measure of global trade, econometric estimations suggest that over the past 15 years the long-term elasticity of global trade to GDP has been similar to that of the 1990s. Indeed, the overwhelming part of post-crisis trade weakness can be attributed to weak global demand rather than structural changes, according to the econometric estimations in this paper and supporting evidence on changes in global investment, international production fragmentation and protectionism.
Download or read book Trade Patterns and Global Value Chains in East Asia written by World Trade Organization and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown written by Gee Hee Hong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-16 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Download or read book The Handbook of Global Trade Policy written by Andreas Klasen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-02-03 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a state-of-the-art overview of international trade policy research The Handbook of Global Trade Policy offers readers a comprehensive resource for the study of international trade policy, governance, and financing. This timely and authoritative work presents contributions from a team of prominent experts that assess the policy implications of recent academic research on the subject. Discussions of contemporary research in fields such as economics, international business, international relations, law, and global politics help readers develop an expansive, interdisciplinary knowledge of 21st century foreign trade. Accessible for students, yet relevant for practitioners and researchers, this book expertly guides readers through essential literature in the field while highlighting new connections between social science research and global policy-making. Authoritative chapters address new realities of the global trade environment, global governance and international institutions, multilateral trade agreements, regional trade in developing countries, value chains in the Pacific Rim, and more. Designed to provide a well-rounded survey of the subject, this book covers financing trade such as export credit arrangements in developing economies, export insurance markets, climate finance, and recent initiatives of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This state-of-the-art overview: Integrates new data and up-to-date research in the field Offers an interdisciplinary approach to examining global trade policy Introduces fundamental concepts of global trade in an understandable style Combines contemporary economic, legal, financial, and policy topics Presents a wide range of perspectives on current issues surrounding trade practices and policies The Handbook of Global Trade Policy is a valuable resource for students, professionals, academics, researchers, and policy-makers in all areas of international trade, economics, business, and finance.
Download or read book Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of GVCs on Economic Development written by World Trade Organization and published by World Trade Organization. This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is about a huge contribution to our deepening understanding of what the global economy really means and how it is changing. The report helpfully distinguishes elements of an economy that are tradable and the large set that are non-tradable. Clearly the tradables set is expanding with the support of enabling technology. The report argues that connectivity in the networks that define the evolving architecture of GVCs is important. This Global Value Chain Development Report is the result of intensive and detailed work in assembling and analyzing data on the structure of economies and on how they are linked. It creates a much clearer picture of evolving patterns of independence. It also presents a much clearer picture of comparative advantage. --Publisher description.
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Download or read book Global Value Chains in a Changing World written by Deborah Kay Elms and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of papers by some of the world's leading specialists on global value chains (GVCs). It examines how GVCs have evolved and the challenges they face in a rapidly changing world. The approach is multi-disciplinary, with contributions from economists, political scientists, supply chain management specialists, practitioners and policy-makers. Co-published with the Fung Global Institute and the Temasek
