Download or read book Underspecification in the Macroeconomic Arbitrage Pricing Theory APT Linear Factor Model and the Role of the Residual Market Factor written by Jan Jakub Szczygielski and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The linear factor model is a building block of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). Macroeconomic factors may be used in linear factor models to proxy for the pervasive influences in returns. However, as the true return generating process is unobservable, macroeconomic data is either inaccurate or unavailable and because of the principle of parsimony, the linear factor model is likely to suffer from factor omission and consequent underspecification. Underspecification may adversely affect the interpretation of results, introduce coefficient bias, result in an upward bias in the residual variance and adversely affect predictive ability. The diagonality assumption that underlies the APT linear factor model will also be violated. Consequently, underspecification may pose a challenge to the general validity and interpretation of the linear factor model and the APT model. A widely applied solution to omitted factor bias in APT literature is the Burmeister and Wall (1986) residual market factor, hypothesised to fulfil the role of a wide-ranging proxy for omitted factors. This factor is derived from a broad market aggregate by excluding the influence of other factors that feature in a given linear factor model. This study sets out to determine whether the use of a conventional residual market factor derived from a domestic market aggregate adequately resolves underspecification. This study also considers the impact of underspecification on the linear factor model. The role of a second residual market factor derived from a widely used global market index, the MSCI World Market Index, in resolving factor omission is also considered. A second residual market factor that is orthogonal by contribution to the factor set in the linear factor model should be irrelevant if a conventional residual market factor is an adequate proxy for omitted factors. Consequently, the second residual market factor in this study also fulfils the function of a test of the adequacy of the conventional residual market factor. The approach in this study is comparative; three reduced form models are juxtaposed against a benchmark model and each other. The benchmark model incorporates a macroeconomic factor set, two residual market factors and a factor analytic augmentation as proxies for any remaining unobserved and omitted factors. Each specification is estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) estimation. Conditional variance is modelled as an ARCH(p) or GARCH(p, q) process to permit the structure of conditional variance to enter coefficient estimates and to provide insight into the conditional variance structure of the residuals. It is hypothesised that if factor omission has no impact on representations of the linear factor model and if the residual market factor is an effective and adequate proxy for omitted factors, then a model that comprises macroeconomic factors and a residual market factor should be comparable to the benchmark model in terms of results, general inferences and other aspects. This study finds that a linear factor model incorporating only macroeconomic factors performs poorly. The significance of factors is understated and the model is misidentified. Standard errors and residual variance are inflated, coefficients are biased and predictive and explanatory performance is poor. Significant deviations from the true return generating process are observed and the diagonality assumption is violated. The incorporation of a single residual market factor improves such a specification although there is still evidence of significant omitted factor bias. Violations of the diagonality assumption continue to persist but are not as widespread as for the specification that solely employs macroeconomic factors. The inclusion of a second residual market factor does not significantly alleviate the symptoms of underspecification and this factor is significant in a number of instances suggesting that the residual market factor does not capture all omitted influences by itself. Researchers of the APT and practitioners are encouraged to take note of these findings to avoid misinterpreting the results of macroeconomic linear factor models. The linear factor model is a complex construct and the application of a widely used approach in APT literature to resolve factor omission may not be adequate. This can adversely impact studies focusing on the linear factor model and equilibrium pricing within the APT and studies that apply macroeconomic linear factor models motivated by the APT.

Download or read book The Arbitrage Pricing Theory as an Approach to Capital Asset Valuation written by Christian Koch and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2009-03 with total page 81 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Diploma Thesis from the year 1996 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1,3, European Business School - International University Schlo Reichartshausen Oestrich-Winkel, 160 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: A "few surprises" could be the trivial answer of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory if asked for the major determinants of stock returns. The APT was developed as a traceable framework of the main principles of capital asset pricing in financial markets. It investigates the causes underlying one of the most important fields in financial economics, namely the relationship between risk and return. The APT provides a thorough understanding of the nature and origins of risk inherent in financial assets and how capital markets reward an investor for bearing risk. Its fundamental intuition is the absence of arbitrage which is, indeed, central to finance and which has been used in virtually all areas of financial study. Since its introduction two decades ago, the APT has been subject to extensive theoretical as well as empirical research. By now, the arbitrage theory is well established in both respects and has enlightened our perception of capital markets. This paper aims to present the APT as an appropriate instrument of capital asset pricing and to link its principles to the valuation of risky income streams. The objective is also to provide an overview of the state of art of APT in the context of alternative capital market theories. For this purpose, Section 2 describes the basic concepts of the traditional asset pricing model, the CAPM, and indicates differences to arbitrage theory. Section 3 constitutes the main part of this paper introducing a derivation of the APT. Emphasis is laid on principles rather than on rigorous proof. The intuition of the pricing formula and its consistency with the state space preference theory are discussed. Important contributions to the APT are classified and br

Download or read book New Methods For The Arbitrage Pricing Theory And The Present Value Model written by Jianping Mei and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1994-10-24 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book consists of two essays on new approaches for the Arbitrage Pricing Theory and the Present Value Model, and one essay on cross-sectional correlations in panel data. The new approaches are designed to study a large number of securities over time. They can be employed by security analysts to discover market anomalies without assuming observable factors or constant risk premium. The book shows how these two approaches can be used to determine how many systematic factors affect the U.S. stock market.

Download or read book An Empirical Examination of the Robustness of Arbitrage Factors written by Randall Barry Howard and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After thirty years of vigorous research, there is still little agreement in the field of asset pricing theory. Shanken and Smith (1996) sum up the vast amount of empirical research on asset pricing models by saying, "Although we have learned much about the cross sectional and time series properties of returns and have developed sophisticated statistical methods to increase the power of the tests, numerous unanswered questions remain." Two of the most fundamental, yet unanswered, questions are: How many factors are there? and What are those factors? The two primary equilibrium, expected return models are the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), developed almost simultaneously by Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965), and Mossin (1966), and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), introduced by Ross (1976, 1977). The CAPM is a one factor model that states that the equilibrium rate of return on any asset is a linear function of the asset's covariance with the market portfolio. The APT, on the other hand, is a multifactor model.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Risk and Asset Pricing written by John Ammer and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Are Macroeconomic Factors Adequate Proxies for Systematic Influences in Stock Returns written by Jan Szczygielski and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates whether pre-specified macroeconomic factors can adequately proxy for the pervasive influences in stock returns, within the context of macroeconomic linear factor models motivated by the multifactor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). Variation in stock returns can be attributed to systematic and idiosyncratic sources of variation. As idiosyncratic factors can be diversified away, systematic variation will remain and the only factors that will be relevant will be those representative of systematic influences. In this study, systematic influences are quantified by statistically derived factor scores which are then related to a set of carefully selected macroeconomic factors. The identification of macroeconomic factors that proxy for systematic influences in returns is a challenge in itself. Once identified, macroeconomic factors are found to be poor and unstable proxies for systematic influences. The use of a residual market factor, an often-applied solution the factor omission problem in linear factor models motivated by the APT, does not significantly improve the approximation of factor scores. Macroeconomic factors are unlikely to provide a complete representation of the return generating process. Researchers should recognize that macroeconomic linear factor models are likely to be underspecified, even if a residual market factor is included.

Download or read book An Exact Arbitrage Pricing Model of Capital Assets written by Jin-Chuan Duan and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Measuring the Pricing Error of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory written by John Geweke and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Arbitrage Pricing Theory in Ergodic Markets written by Gabriel Frahm and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditional approaches to Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) propose a factor model, whereas empirical applications of APT nowadays are based on seemingly unrelated regression. I drop the factor model and assume only that the market is ergodic. This enables me to apply the theory of Hilbert spaces in a natural way. The expected return on any asset can always be approximated by an affine-linear function of its betas. We are even able to estimate the relative number of assets that violate the APT equation by observing the given expected returns and betas. The APT equation is essentially satisfied only if we do not omit any common risk whose market price differs from zero, provided there exists an arbitrarily large number of common risks for which the return equation is properly specified. I present a quite simple sufficient condition for the APT equation in its inexact form, and I show that the APT equation holds true in its exact form if and only if an equilibrium market is exhaustive. This means that the market participants must be able to replicate the betas and idiosyncratic risk of each asset by some strategy that diversifies away all approximation errors in the market.

Download or read book A Time Series Investigation of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory written by Marilyn Katherine Wiley and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Arbitrage Pricing Theory written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Focusing on capital asset returns governed by a factor structure, the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is a one-period model, in which preclusion of arbitrage over static portfolios of these assets leads to a linear relation between the expected return and its covariance with the factors. The APT, however, does not preclude arbitrage over dynamic portfolios. Consequently, applying the model to evaluate managed portfolios is contradictory to the no-arbitrage spirit of the model. An empirical test of the APT entails a procedure to identify features of the underlying factor structure rather than merely a collection of mean-variance efficient factor portfolios that satisfies the linear relation"--Federal Reserve Bank of New York web site.

Download or read book Heterogeneous Beliefs Asset Market Equilibrium and the Arbitrage Pricing Model written by Puneet Handa and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Arbitrage Pricing Theory in a Small Open Economy written by Anders Löflund and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Arbitrage Pricing Theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model Evidence from the Indian Stock Market written by Raj Dhankar and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The arbitrage pricing theory (APT) has been proposed as an alternative to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). This paper uses principal components analysis to estimate the factors that influence stock returns. Analysis of the Indian stock market using monthly and weekly returns for 1991-2002 shows that APT with multiple factors provides a better indication of asset risk and estimates of required rate of return than CAPM which uses beta as the single measure of risk.

Download or read book Market Consistent Prices written by Pablo Koch-Medina and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-07-16 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Arbitrage Theory provides the foundation for the pricing of financial derivatives and has become indispensable in both financial theory and financial practice. This textbook offers a rigorous and comprehensive introduction to the mathematics of arbitrage pricing in a discrete-time, finite-state economy in which a finite number of securities are traded. In a first step, various versions of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing, i.e., characterizations of when a market does not admit arbitrage opportunities, are proved. The book then focuses on incomplete markets where the main concern is to obtain a precise description of the set of “market-consistent” prices for nontraded financial contracts, i.e. the set of prices at which such contracts could be transacted between rational agents. Both European-type and American-type contracts are considered. A distinguishing feature of this book is its emphasis on market-consistent prices and a systematic description of pricing rules, also at intermediate dates. The benefits of this approach are most evident in the treatment of American options, which is novel in terms of both the presentation and the scope, while also presenting new results. The focus on discrete-time, finite-state models makes it possible to cover all relevant topics while requiring only a moderate mathematical background on the part of the reader. The book will appeal to mathematical finance and financial economics students seeking an elementary but rigorous introduction to the subject; mathematics and physics students looking for an opportunity to get acquainted with a modern applied topic; and mathematicians, physicists and quantitatively inclined economists working or planning to work in the financial industry.

Download or read book A Macroeconomic Factor Test of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory written by Stephen Peter Dukas and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory II written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) of Ross (1976) presumes that a factor model describes security returns. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive examination of the merits of various strategies for constructing basis portfolios that are, in principle, highly correlated with the common factors affecting security returns. Three main conclusions emerge from our study. First, increasing the number of securities included in the analysis dramatically improves basis portfolio performance. Our results indicate that factor models involving 750 securities provide markedly superior performance to those involving 30 or 250 securities. Second, comparatively efficient estimation procedures such as maximum likelihood and restricted maximum likelihood factor analysis(which imposes the APT mean restriction) significantly outperform the less efficient instrumental variables and principal components procedures that have been proposed in the literature. Third, a variant of the usual Fame-MacBeth portfolio formation procedure, which we call the minimum idiosyncratic risk portfolio formation procedure, outperformed the Fama-MacBeth procedure and proved equal toor better than more expensive quadratic programming procedures.