Download or read book Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2012-07-26 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in computing hardware and algorithms have dramatically improved the ability to simulate complex processes computationally. Today's simulation capabilities offer the prospect of addressing questions that in the past could be addressed only by resource-intensive experimentation, if at all. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models recognizes the ubiquity of uncertainty in computational estimates of reality and the necessity for its quantification. As computational science and engineering have matured, the process of quantifying or bounding uncertainties in a computational estimate of a physical quality of interest has evolved into a small set of interdependent tasks: verification, validation, and uncertainty of quantification (VVUQ). In recognition of the increasing importance of computational simulation and the increasing need to assess uncertainties in computational results, the National Research Council was asked to study the mathematical foundations of VVUQ and to recommend steps that will ultimately lead to improved processes. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models discusses changes in education of professionals and dissemination of information that should enhance the ability of future VVUQ practitioners to improve and properly apply VVUQ methodologies to difficult problems, enhance the ability of VVUQ customers to understand VVUQ results and use them to make informed decisions, and enhance the ability of all VVUQ stakeholders to communicate with each other. This report is an essential resource for all decision and policy makers in the field, students, stakeholders, UQ experts, and VVUQ educators and practitioners.
Download or read book Measurement Uncertainty written by Simona Salicone and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-06-04 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The expression of uncertainty in measurement poses a challenge since it involves physical, mathematical, and philosophical issues. This problem is intensified by the limitations of the probabilistic approach used by the current standard (the GUM Instrumentation Standard). This text presents an alternative approach. It makes full use of the mathematical theory of evidence to express the uncertainty in measurements. Coverage provides an overview of the current standard, then pinpoints and constructively resolves its limitations. Numerous examples throughout help explain the book’s unique approach.
Download or read book Modeling and Inverse Problems in the Presence of Uncertainty written by H. T. Banks and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2014-04-01 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling and Inverse Problems in the Presence of Uncertainty collects recent research-including the authors' own substantial projects-on uncertainty propagation and quantification. It covers two sources of uncertainty: where uncertainty is present primarily due to measurement errors and where uncertainty is present due to the modeling formulation i
Download or read book An Introduction to Uncertainty in Measurement written by L. Kirkup and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-06-01 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measurement shapes scientific theories, characterises improvements in manufacturing processes and promotes efficient commerce. In concert with measurement is uncertainty, and students in science and engineering need to identify and quantify uncertainties in the measurements they make. This book introduces measurement and uncertainty to second and third year students of science and engineering. Its approach relies on the internationally recognised and recommended guidelines for calculating and expressing uncertainty (known by the acronym GUM). The statistics underpinning the methods are considered and worked examples and exercises are spread throughout the text. Detailed case studies based on typical undergraduate experiments are included to reinforce the principles described in the book. This guide is also useful to professionals in industry who are expected to know the contemporary methods in this increasingly important area. Additional online resources are available to support the book at www.cambridge.org/9780521605793.
Download or read book Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences Fuzzy Logic Statistics and Neural Network Approach written by Bilal Ayyub and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1997-10-31 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.
Download or read book Uncertainty written by H. Günther Natke and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Fence Methods written by Jiming Jiang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-09-22 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about a recently developed class of strategies, known as the fence methods, which fits particularly well in non-conventional and complex model selection problems with practical considerations. The idea involves a procedure to isolate a subgroup of what are known as correct models, of which the optimal model is a member. This is accomplished by constructing a statistical fence, or barrier, to carefully eliminate incorrect models. Once the fence is constructed, the optimal model is selected from amongst those within the fence according to a criterion which can be made flexible. In particular, the criterion of optimality can incorporate consideration of practical interest, thus making model selection a real life practice.Furthermore, this book introduces a data-driven approach, called adaptive fence, which can be used in a wide range of problems involving determination of tuning parameters, or constants. Instead of relying on asymptotic theory, the fence focuses on finite-sample performance, and computation. Such features are particularly suitable to statistics in the new era.
Download or read book Measurement Uncertainty written by Ronald H. Dieck and published by ISA. This book was released on 2007 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Literally an entire course between two covers, Measurement Uncertainty: Methods and Applications, Fourth Edition, presents engineering students with a comprehensive tutorial of measurement uncertainty methods in a logically categorized and readily utilized format. The new uncertainty technologies embodied in both U.S. and international standards have been incorporated into this text with a view toward understanding the strengths and weaknesses of both. The book is designed to also serve as a practical desk reference in situations that commonly confront an experimenter. The text presents the basics of the measurement uncertainty model, non-symmetrical systematic standard uncertainties, random standard uncertainties, the use of correlation, curve-fitting problems, and probability plotting, combining results from different test methods, calibration errors, and uncertainty propagation for both independent and dependent error sources. The author draws on years of experience in industry to direct special attention to the problem of developing confidence in uncertainty analysis results and using measurement uncertainty to select instrumentation systems.
Download or read book Uncertainty Modeling for Engineering Applications written by Flavio Canavero and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-29 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an overview of state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodologies and applications, and covers a wide range of current research, future challenges and applications in various domains, such as aerospace and mechanical applications, structure health and seismic hazard, electromagnetic energy (its impact on systems and humans) and global environmental state change. Written by leading international experts from different fields, the book demonstrates the unifying property of UQ theme that can be profitably adopted to solve problems of different domains. The collection in one place of different methodologies for different applications has the great value of stimulating the cross-fertilization and alleviate the language barrier among areas sharing a common background of mathematical modeling for problem solution. The book is designed for researchers, professionals and graduate students interested in quantitatively assessing the effects of uncertainties in their fields of application. The contents build upon the workshop “Uncertainty Modeling for Engineering Applications” (UMEMA 2017), held in Torino, Italy in November 2017.
Download or read book A Modeling Language for Measurement Uncertainty Evaluation written by Marco Wolf and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2009 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling written by Yan Wang and published by Woodhead Publishing Limited. This book was released on 2020-03-12 with total page 604 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling provides a complete overview of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational materials science. It provides practical tools and methods along with examples of their application to problems in materials modeling. UQ methods are applied to various multiscale models ranging from the nanoscale to macroscale. This book presents a thorough synthesis of the state-of-the-art in UQ methods for materials modeling, including Bayesian inference, surrogate modeling, random fields, interval analysis, and sensitivity analysis, providing insight into the unique characteristics of models framed at each scale, as well as common issues in modeling across scales.
Download or read book Uncertainty Models and Measures written by H. Günther Natke and published by Wiley-VCH. This book was released on 1997-10-22 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty influences the individual as well as society; so it is important to enhance our understanding of uncertainty. First of all, do we all agree on a unique definition of uncertainty in the natural and technological worlds? Secondly, how can we model uncertainty? Is it purely a state of mind, the lack of complete knowledge, or is it a phenomenon in its own right? What heuristic and mathematical models are available? What types of questions about uncertainty can be formulated? What questions can be realistically answered? Do scholars in diverse fields agree on these issues? These and other questions are addressed by 20 scholars from mechanical, civil, electrical, material, aerospace and ocean engineering, from applied mathematics, economics, industrial engineering and operations research, control theory, geodesy, systems science, and philosophy.
Download or read book Uncertainty Modelling and Analysis written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by Elsevier Publishing Company. This book was released on 1994 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vital information on machine intelligence and pattern recognition is provided by this publication. In particular, the 31 papers discuss the ways in which uncertainty modelling and analysis are becoming an integral part of system definition and modelling in many fields. Contributions are sourced from an international base of researchers, scientists and engineers working on theoretical developments and diversified applications in engineering systems. The book is divided into two main parts. The first, Uncertainty Models and Measures, includes chapters on theoretical studies and developments carried out on uncertainty (including cognitive uncertainty and how it relates to information and intelligence), information, fuzzy logic, expert systems and neural networks. There are also chapters on modelling uncertainty in the reliability assessment of complex systems, linguistic connectives, the principle of maximum buoyancy, uncertain evidence, inductive learning, convex modelling, new uncertainty measures and information and uncertainty.The larger second part, Applications to Engineering Systems, contains application-oriented studies in fields related to civil, electrical, energy and general engineering systems. The papers cover studies on general uncertainty types in structural engineering, bridges, transmission structures, structural reliability, structural identification, system life cycle analysis, control, construction activities, decision analysis, signal detection, risk management, product quality, military command and control, data bases, long-term projections and predictions and assessment of insurance indices.The book conveys the excitement, advances and promises that all these fields offer to our expanding information-based technological society. It also hopes to stimulate the interest of other researchers around the world who are facing the challenge of new theoretical studies and innovative technological changes.
Download or read book Uncertainty Theory written by Baoding Liu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2007-09-14 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a self-contained, comprehensive and up-to-date presentation of uncertainty theory. The purpose is to equip the readers with an axiomatic approach to deal with uncertainty. For this new edition the entire text has been totally rewritten. The chapters on chance theory and uncertainty theory are completely new. Mathematicians, researchers, engineers, designers, and students will find this work a stimulating and useful reference.
Download or read book Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-07-31 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is the summary of a workshop conducted by the National Research Council in order to learn from both forecast makers and forecast users about improvements that can be made in understanding the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers examined (1) the history and problems with models of demand and supply for scientists and engineers, (2) objectives and approaches to forecasting models, (3) margins of adjustment that have been neglected in models, especially substitution and quality, (4) the presentation of uncertainty, and (5) whether these forecasts of supply and demand are worthwhile, given all their shortcomings. The focus of the report was to provide guidance to the NSF and to scholars in this area on how models and the forecasts derived from them might be improved, and what role NSF should play in their improvement. In addition, the report examined issues of reporting forecasts to policymakers.
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Download or read book An Introduction to Measurement Uncertainty written by Blair D Hall and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This introduction to measurement uncertainty is intended for metrology professionals working in calibration laboratories and metrology institutes, as well as students in tertiary-level science and engineering programmes. The subject matter is presented with an emphasis on developing models of the physical measurement process. The level of mathematics and statistics used is basic and is typically covered by high school studies"--Distributor's website.
