Download or read book Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses written by Vivek Ghosal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-14 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of employment, and the effects are primarily felt by the relatively smaller businesses; the impact on large businesses are generally non-existent or weaker. Our results suggest that to truly understand the effects of uncertainty on employment dynamics, we need to focus on the relatively smaller and entrepreneurial businesses. We discuss implications for the framing of economic policy.
Download or read book Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Business written by Vivek Ghosal and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Download or read book Organizational Flexibility and Employment Dynamics at Young and Old Plants written by Jeffrey R. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are significant differences in the dynamics of employment over the business cycle between young and old manufacturing plants. Young plants are more sensitive to aggregate disturbances, and they respond to them along different margins. We interpret these differences as reflecting greater organizational flexibility at young plants due to the changing nature of a plant's environment as it ages. In the presence of aggregate uncertainty, differences between young and old plants' organizational flexibility allows the model to reproduce their distinct cyclical characteristics. Previous empirical studies show that small firms generally respond by more to aggregate shocks than do large firms. To the extent that small firms tend to operate young plants, our analysis suggests an alternative to conventional explanations of this evidence which appeal to imperfections in credit markets.
Download or read book Strategies for Successful Small Business Ownership in an Unstable Economy written by Dr. Chris Akaeze and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2016-12-09 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since early 1960s Nigeria, economy has been unstable and monolithic, centered on crude oil production and export. Instability of Nigeria economy is contributory to why only less than 20 percent small startup businesses survive the first five years. In spite of the unstable business environment, owners created approximately 17.3 million small businesses across Nigeria and employed a total of approximately thirty-two million workers with contribution of about 45 percent to the GDP. Based on theory of constraints, the purpose of this qualitative multiple-case study was to explore strategies required by some small business owners to survive Nigerias unstable economy beyond five years. Data were collected through semistructured interviews with three small business owners who had succeeded in business beyond the first five years from three different regions in Nigeria. The business strategies may help prospective and existing Nigerian small business owners improve profit and sustain business for survival beyond five years.
Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Download or read book Making It Big written by Andrea Ciani and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-10-08 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic and social progress requires a diverse ecosystem of firms that play complementary roles. Making It Big: Why Developing Countries Need More Large Firms constitutes one of the most up-to-date assessments of how large firms are created in low- and middle-income countries and their role in development. It argues that large firms advance a range of development objectives in ways that other firms do not: large firms are more likely to innovate, export, and offer training and are more likely to adopt international standards of quality, among other contributions. Their particularities are closely associated with productivity advantages and translate into improved outcomes not only for their owners but also for their workers and for smaller enterprises in their value chains. The challenge for economic development, however, is that production does not reach economic scale in low- and middle-income countries. Why are large firms scarcer in developing countries? Drawing on a rare set of data from public and private sources, as well as proprietary data from the International Finance Corporation and case studies, this book shows that large firms are often born large—or with the attributes of largeness. In other words, what is distinct about them is often in place from day one of their operations. To fill the “missing top†? of the firm-size distribution with additional large firms, governments should support the creation of such firms by opening markets to greater competition. In low-income countries, this objective can be achieved through simple policy reorientation, such as breaking oligopolies, removing unnecessary restrictions to international trade and investment, and establishing strong rules to prevent the abuse of market power. Governments should also strive to ensure that private actors have the skills, technology, intelligence, infrastructure, and finance they need to create large ventures. Additionally, they should actively work to spread the benefits from production at scale across the largest possible number of market participants. This book seeks to bring frontier thinking and evidence on the role and origins of large firms to a wide range of readers, including academics, development practitioners and policy makers.
Download or read book Research Bulletin March 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-03-24 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Articles in the March 2015 Research Bulletin focus on the oil market, energy subsidies, and output. The Research Summary on "An Exploration in Deep Corners of the Oil Market," authored by Rabah Arezki, Douglas Laxton, Armen Nurekyan, and Hou Wang, examines fluctuations in oil prices. "The State Budget May Afford It All," by Christian Ebeke and Constant Lonkeng Ngbouana, reviews energy subsidies and their fiscal, distributional, and environmental costs. In the “Q&A” column Pau Rabanal takes a look at “Seven Questions on Potential Output.” The Bulletin includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, recommended readings from IMF Publications, and a call for papers for the next Annual Research Conference. A link with information and free access to IMF Economic Review is also included.
Download or read book Dynamics Games and Science written by Jean-Pierre Bourguignon and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 766 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus of this volume is research carried out as part of the program Mathematics of Planet Earth, which provides a platform to showcase the essential role of mathematics in addressing problems of an economic and social nature and creating a context for mathematicians and applied scientists to foster mathematical and interdisciplinary developments that will be necessary to tackle a myriad of issues and meet future global economic and social challenges. Earth is a planet with dynamic processes in its mantle, oceans and atmosphere creating climate, causing natural disasters and influencing fundamental aspects of life and life-supporting systems. In addition to these natural processes, human activity has developed highly complex systems, including economic and financial systems; the World Wide Web; frameworks for resource management, transportation, energy production and utilization; health care delivery, and social organizations. This development has increased to the point where it impacts the stability and equilibrium in human societies. Issues such as financial and economic crisis, sustainability, management of resources, risk analysis, and global integration have come to the fore. Written by some of the world’s leading specialists, this book presents the proceedings of the International Conference and Advanced School Planet Earth, Dynamics, Games and Science II, held in Lisbon, Portugal, 28 August -6 September 2013, which was organized by the International Center of Mathematics (CIM) as a partner institution of the international program Mathematics of Planet Earth 2013. The book describes the state of the art in advanced research and ultimate techniques in modeling natural, economic and social phenomena. It constitutes a tool and a framework for researchers and graduate students, both in mathematics and applied sciences, focusing mainly on dynamical systems, game theory and applied sciences.
Download or read book Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses written by John Haltiwanger and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2017-09-21 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges brings together and unprecedented group of economists, data providers, and data analysts to discuss research on the state of entrepreneurship and to address the challenges in understanding this dynamic part of the economy. Each chapter addresses the challenges of measuring entrepreneurship and how entrepreneurial firms contribute to economies and standards of living. The book also investigates heterogeneity in entrepreneurs, challenges experienced by entrepreneurs over time, and how much less we know than we think about entrepreneurship given data limitations. This volume will be a groundbreaking first serious look into entrepreneurship in the NBER's Income and Wealth series.
Download or read book The Impact of Uncertainty on the Number of Businesses written by Vivek Ghosal and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theoretical results based on the asymmetric-information driven credit-market channel, and the real-options mechanism, imply that greater uncertainty is expected to affect entry, exit, and the number of businesses. In this paper we empirically examine the impact of uncertainty on the number of businesses, and whether firm size plays an important role in the magnitude of this effect. Our results indicate that greater uncertainty has a negative and quantitatively meaningful impact on the number of businesses, and the effects are primarily concentrated on the relatively smaller businesses. Our findings point to uncertainty being a potentially important channel which may cause the differential churning rates of smaller and larger businesses, thereby contributing to our understanding of industry and market dynamics, and the potential framing of policy during fluctuations in economic activity.
Download or read book Why Small Businesses Were Hit Harder by the Recent Recession written by Aysegul Sahin and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although both large and small businesses felt the sting of job losses during the 2007-09 downturn, small firms experienced disproportionate declines. A study of the recession's employment effect on small firms suggests that poor sales and economic uncertainty were the main reasons for their weak performance and sluggish recovery - problems that affected large firms too, but to a lesser degree. Although a tightened credit supply constrained some small firms, weak consumer demand for the firms' products and services was a more pressing factor, reducing revenues and dampening new investment spending.
Download or read book A New Architecture for the U S National Accounts written by Dale W. Jorgenson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 650 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A New Architecture for the U.S. National Accounts brings together a distinguished group of contributors to initiate the development of a comprehensive and fully integrated set of United States national accounts. The purpose of the new architecture is not only to integrate the existing systems of accounts, but also to identify gaps and inconsistencies and expand and incorporate systems of nonmarket accounts with the core system. Since the United States economy accounts for almost thirty percent of the world economy, it is not surprising that accounting for this huge and diverse set of economic activities requires a decentralized statistical system. This volume outlines the major assignments among institutions that include the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Department of Labor, the Census Bureau, and the Governors of the Federal Reserve System. An important part of the motivation for the new architecture is to integrate the different components and make them consistent. This volume is the first step toward achieving that goal.
Download or read book The Tolls of Uncertainty written by Sarah Damaske and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-05-25 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Although media outlets dubbed the Great Recession of 2007-2009 a 'man-cession' because men's job losses were double women's at first, women experienced greater job loss after the so-called 'conclusion' of the recession and recovered jobs at a slower rate than men. Women also appeared to face greater economic consequences of job loss: they were more likely than men to experience hunger and deprivation. These trends bring us to the first puzzle at the heart of this book: do women and men experience job loss and its effects differently? Using in-depth interviews from 100 people from rural and urban counties in Pennsylvania, Sarah Damaske investigates how men and women of different classes lose jobs, experience the economic and social ramifications of their unemployment in their own lives and their family life, and begin to search for work again"--
Download or read book Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth written by David B. Audretsch and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-04-27 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By serving as a conduit for knowledge spillovers, entrepreneurship is the missing link between investments in new knowledge and economic growth. The knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship provides not just an explanation of why entrepreneurship has become more prevalent as the factor of knowledge has emerged as a crucial source for comparative advantage, but also why entrepreneurship plays a vital role in generating economic growth. Entrepreneurship is an important mechanism permeating the knowledge filter to facilitate the spill over of knowledge and ultimately generate economic growth.
Download or read book Small Business in a Global Economy written by Scott L. Newbert and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2015-05-05 with total page 485 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This informative set analyzes the dynamics involved with creating, growing, and managing small businesses amid different geographic, institutional, and political environments. This two-volume work explores the behavior and decision making of small companies; their business strategies for launch, growth, and survival; and their contribution to the larger global economy. Utilizing information and data gleaned from proven entrepreneurs and small business operations, this reference provides insight into the political, environmental, and competitive forces that support and impede small business ownership, and offers strategies for navigating them. Written by leading researchers from around the world, the set presents a broad view of the small business sector, focusing on conception, ownership, financing, and growth strategies. A look at external factors features the impact of political and environmental influences; extant regulations affecting small firms; and programs for promoting this sector. The first volume takes a micro view of the small business phenomenon, profiling the owner and the skills necessary to be successful. The second volume utilizes a macro approach, focusing on the operational concerns of and the environment factors bearing upon small businesses.
Download or read book Uncertainty Expectations and the Business Cycle written by Jan Hannes Lang and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis adds to the recent quantitative literature that considers variations in uncertainty as impulses driving the business cycle. In chapter one a flexible partial equilibrium model that features heterogeneous firms, uncertainty shocks and various forms of capital adjustment costs is built in order to reassess whether temporarily higher uncertainty can cause recessions. It is then shown that while uncertainty shocks to demand can cause the bust, rebound and overshoot dynamics reminiscent of recessions, uncertainty shocks to total factor productivity are likely to lead to considerable and prolonged booms in economic activity. The reason for this result is that while the expectational effect of uncertainty shocks is negative and similar in magnitude for both types of uncertainty shocks, the positive distributional effect is an order of magnitude larger for total factor productivity than for demand. Chapter two then derives and implements an identification strategy for uncertainty shocks within a Structural Vector Autoregression framework that is consistent with the way these shocks are commonly modeled in the literature. For the US it is shown that such model consistent uncertainty shocks lead to considerable booms in investment and employment and only explain a small fraction of the variation in the cross-sectional sales variance. Once uncertainty shocks are identified as the shocks that only affect dispersion upon impact, they cause a moderate drop, rebound and overshoot of investment and a large increase in the cross-sectional dispersion of revenues. The results suggest that the standard timing assumption that the expectational effect of uncertainty shocks leads the distributional effect seems questionable. Finally, chapter three analyses endogenous variations in uncertainty and their effect on aggregate dynamics that result from imperfect information in the presence of occasional regime shifts. In a tentative model parameterization to the German manufacturing industry during the Financial Crisis it is shown that after a temporary regime shift imperfect information leads endogenously to higher forecast standard errors compared to full information, as well as higher cross-sectional dispersion of mean forecasts and forecast standard errors. It is then shown that these endogenous variations in uncertainty can lead to considerable downward amplification and some propagation of aggregate investment and revenues during a temporary downward regime shift.
