Download or read book The Uncertain Past written by Myles Lavan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-12-01 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Historians constantly wrestle with uncertainty, never more so than when attempting quantification, yet the field has given little attention to the nature of uncertainty and strategies for managing it. This volume proposes a powerful new approach to uncertainty in ancient history, drawing on techniques widely used in the social and natural sciences. It shows how probability-based techniques used to manage uncertainty about the future or the present can be applied to uncertainty about the past. A substantial introduction explains the use of probability to represent uncertainty. The chapters that follow showcase how the technique can offer leverage on a wide range of problems in ancient history, from the incidence of expropriation in the Classical Greek world to the money supply of the Roman empire.
Download or read book Chequered Past Uncertain Future written by Tahir Kamran and published by Reaktion Books. This book was released on 2024-08-19 with total page 614 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Spanning thousands of years, a wide-ranging history of Pakistan from the Bronze Age to partition and beyond. This book takes us on a sweeping journey through the ebbs and flows of Pakistan’s history, from the ancient Indus Valley Civilization to contemporary times. Chequered Past, Uncertain Future uncovers influences from Turkey, Persia, Arabia, and Britain that have shaped Pakistan, as well as showcases the region’s diverse and rich tapestry of peoples, and its pluralistic, multicultural society. The book also describes the post-1947 shift—following the partition of India and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan—as the country became more religiously conservative and autocratic, intensifying sectarian and ethnic divisions. For most of their history, the people of Pakistan have found themselves under the control of military dictators who suppress civil liberties and freedom of speech and action—a trend that persists today.
Download or read book The Great Upheaval written by Arthur Levine and published by JHU Press. This book was released on 2021-09-14 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How will America's colleges and universities adapt to remarkable technological, economic, and demographic change? The United States is in the midst of a profound transformation the likes of which hasn't been seen since the Industrial Revolution, when America's classical colleges adapted to meet the needs of an emerging industrial economy. Today, as the world shifts to an increasingly interconnected knowledge economy, the intersecting forces of technological innovation, globalization, and demographic change create vast new challenges, opportunities, and uncertainties. In this great upheaval, the nation's most enduring social institutions are at a crossroads. In The Great Upheaval, Arthur Levine and Scott Van Pelt examine higher and postsecondary education to see how it has changed to become what it is today—and how it might be refitted for an uncertain future. Taking a unique historical, cross-industry perspective, Levine and Van Pelt perform a 360-degree survey of American higher education. Combining historical, trend, and comparative analyses of other business sectors, they ask • how much will colleges and universities change, what will change, and how will these changes occur? • will institutions of higher learning be able to adapt to the challenges they face, or will they be disrupted by them? • will the industrial model of higher education be repaired or replaced? • why is higher education more important than ever? The book is neither an attempt to advocate for a particular future direction nor a warning about that future. Rather, it looks objectively at the contexts in which higher education has operated—and will continue to operate. It also seeks to identify likely developments that will aid those involved in steering higher education forward, as well as the many millions of Americans who have a stake in its future. Concluding with a detailed agenda for action, The Great Upheaval is aimed at policy makers, college administrators, faculty, trustees, and students, as well as general readers and people who work for nonprofits facing the same big changes.
Download or read book Picturing the Uncertain World written by Howard Wainer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-30 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the publisher. This book explores how graphs can serve as maps to guide us when the information we have is ambiguous or incomplete. Using a visually diverse sampling of graphical display, from heartrending autobiographical displays of genocide in the Kovno ghetto to the "Pie Chart of Mystery" in a New Yorker cartoon, Wainer illustrates the many ways graphs can be used--and misused--as we try to make sense of an uncertain world. Picturing the Uncertain World takes readers on an extraordinary graphical adventure, revealing how the visual communication of data offers answers to vexing questions yet also highlights the measure of uncertainty in almost everything we do. Are cancer rates higher or lower in rural communities? How can you know how much money to sock away for retirement when you don't know when you'll die? And where exactly did nineteenth-century novelists get their ideas? These are some of the fascinating questions Wainer invites readers to consider. Along the way he traces the origins and development of graphical display, from William Playfair, who pioneered the use of graphs in the eighteenth century, to instances today where the public has been misled through poorly designed graphs.
Download or read book Uncertain Histories written by Kate Palmer Albers and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2015-07-21 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The compulsion to dwell on historyÑon how it is recorded, stored, saved, forgotten, narrated, lost, remembered, and made publicÑhas been at the heart of artistsÕ engagement with the photographic medium since the late 1960s. Uncertain Histories considers some of that work, ranging from installations that incorporate vast numbers of personal and vernacular photographs by Christian Boltanski, Dinh Q. L�, and Gerhard Richter to confrontations with absence in the work of Joel Sternfeld and Ken Gonzales-Day. Projects such as these revolve around a photographic paradox that hinges equally on knowing and not knowing, on definitive proof coupled with uncertainty, on abundance of imagery being met squarely with its own inadequacy. Photography is seen as a fundamentally ambiguous medium that can be evocative of the historical past while at the same time limited in the stories it can convey. Rather than proclaiming definitively what photography is, the work discussed here posits photographs as objects always held in suspension, perpetually oscillating in their ability to tell history. Yet this ultimately leads to a new kind of knowledge production: uncertainty is not a dead end but a generative space for the viewerÕs engagement with the construction of history.
Download or read book Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability written by Juha M. Alho and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-03-13 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.
Download or read book The Uncertain Foundations of Post Keynesian Economics written by Stephen Dunn and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-04-05 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important new book introduces, analyzes and takes forward a post-Keynesian theory of the firm. It makes a vital contribution to the conceptualisation of uncertainty that is consistent with the methodological presuppositions of Post Keynesian economics. The author attempts to make a positive contribution to the development of Post Keynesian economics by refuting allegations of incoherence, detailing some of the salient implications of a transmutable conception of economic processes and then starting to explore what this means for how Post Keynesians conceptualise uncertainty. The book argues that the Post Keynesian distinctive view of time, understood as a non-deterministic open systems process, is a core and defining characteristic which is linked to its theoretical discussion of money and the principle of effective demand. Covering areas such as the coherence of Post Keynesianism, the future of Post Keynesian economics and Keynesian methodological debates, this book is useful reading for all Post Keynesian scholars with a strong interest in economic methodology and the philosophical underpinnings of economics.
Download or read book Archaeologies of an Uncertain Future written by Karen McPherson and published by McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP. This book was released on 2006-12-15 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An apocalyptic vision of planetary self-destruction provided the context for many late twentieth-century narratives. Women writers from Quebec and English Canada, including Margaret Atwood, Madeleine Ouellette-Michalska, Madeleine Gagnon, Betsy Warland, Marie-Claire Blais, and Nicole Brossard, redefined their relationship to time and narrative in order to tell a different, perhaps more hopeful, story. Using "archaeology" as a trope and a methodology, Karen McPherson's "critical excavations" of these women's writings pose questions about loss and mourning, survival and witnessing, devastation and writing, remembering and imagining.
Download or read book An Uncertain Future Anticipating Oil in Uganda written by Annika Witte and published by Göttingen University Press. This book was released on 2018 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The discovery of oil in Uganda in 2006 ushered in an oil-age era with new prospects of unforeseen riches. However, after an initial exploration boom developments stalled. Unlike other countries with major oil discoveries, Uganda has been slow in developing its oil. In fact, over ten years after the first discoveries, there is still no oil. During the time of the research for this book between 2012 and 2015, Uganda’s oil had not yet fully materialised but was becoming. The overarching characteristic of this research project was waiting for the big changes to come: a waiting characterised by indeterminacy. There is a timeline but every year it gets expanded and in 2018 having oil still seems to belong to an uncertain future. This book looks at the waiting period as a time of not-yet-ness and describes the practices of future- and resource-making in Uganda. How did Ugandans handle the new resource wealth and how did they imagine their future with oil to be? This ethnography is concerned with Uganda’s oil and the way Ugandans anticipated different futures with it: promising futures of wealth and development and disturbing futures of destruction and suffering. The book works out how uncertainty was an underlying feature of these anticipations and how risks and risk discourses shaped the imaginations of possible futures. Much of the talk around the oil involved the dichotomy of blessing or curse and it was not clear, which one the oil would be. Rather than adding another assessment of what the future with oil will be like, this book describes the predictions and prophesies as an essential part of how resources are being made. This ethnography shows how various actors in Uganda, from the state, the oil industry, the civil society, and the extractive communities, have tried to negotiate their position in the oil arena. Annika Witte argues in this book that by establishing their risks and using them as power resources actors can influence the becoming of oil as a resource and their own place in a petro-future. The book offers one of the first ethnographic accounts of Uganda’s oil and the negotiations that took place in an oil state to be.
Download or read book Uncertain Science Uncertain World written by Henry N. Pollack and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-06-23 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the world warming due to the Greenhouse Effect? Can nuclear weapon arsenals be relied upon without periodic testing? Is the world running out of oil? What action should be taken against an outbreak of foot-and-mouth or BSE? Why can't scientists provide certain answers to these and many other questions? The uncertainty of science is puzzling. It arises when scientists have more than one answer to a problem or disagree amongst themselves. In this engaging book, Henry Pollack guides the reader through the maze of contradiction and uncertainty, acquainting them with the ways that uncertainty arises in science, how scientists accommodate and make use of uncertainty, and how in the face of uncertainty they reach their conclusions. Taking examples from recent science headlines and every day life, Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World enables the reader to evaluate uncertainty from their own perspectives, and find out more about how science actually works.
Download or read book Capitalism and Its Uncertain Future written by Kristin Plys and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-10-26 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For decades, Charles Lemert has been the leading voice in social theory. In Capitalism and its Uncertain Future he teams up with one of the most creative emerging social theorists, Kristin Plys, to examine how social theory imagines capitalism. This engaging and innovative book provides new perspectives on well known theorists from Adam Smith, and Frantz Fanon, to Gilles Deleuze, while also introducing readers to lesser known theorists such as Lucia Sanchez Saornil, Mohammad Ali El Hammi, and many more. The book examines theories of capitalism from four perspectives: macro-historical theories of the origins of capitalism; postcolonial theories of capitalism that situate capitalism as seen from the Global South; theories of capitalism from the perspective of labor; and prospective theories of capitalism’s uncertain future. This provocative and ambitious, yet accessible, perspective on theories of capitalism will be of interest to anyone who wants to explore where we’ve been and where we’re headed.
Download or read book Uncertain written by Arie Kruglanski and published by Random House. This book was released on 2023-04-27 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: TO ACHIEVE THE EXTRAORDINARY, FIRST EMBRACE THE UNKNOWN . . . Discover the definitive guide to our fear of uncertainty, and how we can stop it from holding us back 'Groundbreaking' MARTIN SELIGMAN 'One of my very favorite psychologists in the world' ANGELA DUCKWORTH 'This is the book we've been waiting for' CAROL DWECK, bestselling author of Mindset: The New Psychology of Success ____________ Do you fear uncertainty? Why is the unknown so paralysing? And how can we use doubt to our advantage? Our safe modern world has wired us to fear the unknown, rather than use it to our benefit. But what if there was a way of turning that uncertainty into our greatest strength? Imagine being able to make important decisions without anxiety. Imagine being the calm at the centre of every storm. In Uncertain, the world-renowned psychologist Professor Arie Kruglanski shows us that there's only one certain way to face the unknown, and that is to fundamentally change the way we perceive it. This definitive book will transform the way you think about the unknown. Suddenly, you'll stop fearing uncertainty and learn to not only face it, but also harness the power that comes with it. Don't let uncertainty rule your life. Instead, embrace it and achieve the extraordinary. ____________ 'This groundbreaking book is the place to go to discover how to embrace uncertainty and turn it to your growth and benefit' Martin Seligman, author of The Hope Circuit 'One of my very favorite psychologists in the world tackles a subject that is both timeless and timely [and] shows us that though uncertainty is inevitable, how we react to it is not' Angela Duckworth, bestselling author of Grit 'This is the book we've been waiting for. With his tremendous spirit, wit, knowledge, and wisdom, Kruglanski give us a book that helps us understand and navigate the uncertain world we live in. It's both based on science and filled with humanity-with deep compassion and benevolent guidance. It is a book for our time' Carol Dweck, author of Mindset: The New Psychology of Success 'If you're not sure if you need this book, then you do. Original, insightful, and thought-provoking, the world's expert on the psychology of uncertainty reveals what science can tell us about our lives on the razor's edge' Daniel Gilbert, the New York Times bestselling author of Stumbling on Happiness 'If there's anything I'm certain about, is that you'll love this book' Ayelet Fishbach, author of Get It Done
Download or read book Handbook of the Uncertain Self written by Robert M. Arkin and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2013-05-13 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook explores the cognitive, motivational, interpersonal, clinical, and applied aspects of personal uncertainty. It showcases both the diversity and the unity that defines contemporary perspectives on uncertainty in self within social and personality psychology. The contributions to the volume are all written by distinguished scholars in personality, social psychology, and clinical psychology united by their common focus on the causes and consequences of self-uncertainty. Chapters explore the similarities and differences between personal uncertainty and other psychological experiences in terms of their nature and relationship with human thought, emotion, motivation, and behavior. Specific challenges posed by personal uncertainty and the coping strategies people develop in their daily life are identified. There is an assessment of the potential negative and positive repercussions of coping with the specific experience of self-uncertainty, including academic, health, and relationship outcomes. Throughout, strategies specifically designed to assist others in confronting the unique challenges posed by self-uncertainty in ways that emphasize healthy psychological functioning and growth are promoted. In addition, the contributions to the Handbook touch on the psychological, social, and cultural context of the new millennium, including concepts such as Friedman’s "flat world," confidence, the absence of doubt in world leaders, the threat of terrorism since 9/11, the arts, doubt and religious belief, and views of doubt as the universal condition of humankind. The Handbook is an invaluable resource for researchers, practitioners, and senior undergraduate and graduate students in social and personality psychology, clinical and counseling psychology, educational psychology, and developmental psychology.
Download or read book Uncertain Manifesto written by Frédéric Pajak and published by New York Review of Books. This book was released on 2019-03-19 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An illustrated artist's memoir of the motivations, feelings, ideas, figures (including Samuel Beckett and Walter Benjamin), travels, and love affairs that have influenced his life. The writer and artist Frédéric Pajak was ten when he began to dream of “a book mixing words and pictures: snippets of adventure, random memories, maxims, ghosts, forgotten heroes, trees, the raging sea,” but it was not until he was in his forties that this dream took form as Uncertain Manifesto. The utterly original book that he produced is a memoir born of reading and a meditation on the lives and ideas, the motivations, feelings, and fates of some of Pajak’s heroes: Samuel Beckett and the artist Bram van Velde, and, especially, Walter Benjamin, whose travels to Moscow, Naples, and Ibiza, whose experiences with hashish, whose faltering marriage and love affairs and critique of modern experience Pajak re-creates and reflects on in word and image. Pajak’s moody black-and white drawings accompany the text throughout, though their bearing on it is often indirect and all the more absorbing for that. Between word and image, the reader is drawn into a mysterious space that is all Pajak’s as he seeks to evoke vanished histories and to resist a modern world more and more given over to a present without a past. With the support of the Swiss Arts Council Pro Helvetia
Download or read book Uncertain Judgements written by Anthony O'Hagan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-30 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.
Download or read book Uncertain Futures written by Jens Beckert and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-07-05 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.
Download or read book Responsible Leadership for Sustainability in Uncertain Times written by Tanuja Sharma and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-10-05 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains compilation of emerging discourses on responsible leadership for sustainability in uncertain times. Uncertainty is looming large at global level due to COVID, climatic disruptions and persisting social discriminations, especially since the pandemic, which have disrupted economies at both local and global levels. Technology was a boon to mitigate hardships emerging from such disruptions. The book documents the leadership roles, welfare issues, best practices and innovations that help organizations to sustain in a VUCA world. Economic, social and environmental concerns and their mitigation as documented in this book will be relevant for future planning and execution for sustainable existence. A blend of research by practitioners and academicians, capturing organizational experiences through case studies makes it attractive for a wide range of readership. Business leaders will find this book extremely helpful to understand the nuances and insights for responsible leadership and innovative strategies for stakeholder management and engagement for sustained businesses. Practitioners would get insights into responsible leadership for improving existing sustainable practices and speed up the transition which is necessitated due to disruptions. Prospective entrepreneurs may find that book helpful for creating responsible organizations which are sustainable due to responsible management of resources, employees and environment. Students and researchers can learn from the cases and documentation on responsible leadership, social and environmental concerns and sustainability in this book.
