Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Strike Probability Forecasting written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A system to infer the probability of a tropical cyclone's striking within an area, given a tropical cyclone forecast, is described. The results of a sequence of tests are presented, which indicate the system reasonably specifies the desired probability. Some envisioned operational applications of tropical cyclone strike probability information are described; some are illustrated. (Author).

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Strike Probability Forecasting in the Australian Region written by Jenelle I. Templeton and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting WINDP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 an 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which is supported by correlation coefficients. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 and 50 kt winds. (Author).

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Eastern North Pacific EPWINDP written by Jerry Dean Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 to 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the tropical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model and an Atlantic Ocean wind probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast and probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 to 50 kt winds. (Author).

Download or read book Atlantic Hurricane Strike Probability Program STRIKPA written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The format of input and a description of routine and special products are provided. (Author).

Download or read book The Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Strike Probability Program EPSTRKP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A system to infer the probability of an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone's striking within an area, given a tropical cyclone forecast, is described. The probabilities are based on analysis of tropical cyclone forecast errors in the eastern North Pacific. (Author).

Download or read book Guidelines on Ensemble Prediction Systems and Forecasting written by World Meteorological Organization and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Readiness Conditions Setting Aids written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A procedure to set tropical cyclone readiness conditions with a high degree of reliability is described. Where possible, threshold values for 90% and/or 95% confidence are given for 50 kt tropical cyclone and typhoon (hurricane) readiness conditions. The method used a large of computer-simulated forecasts for actual typhoons (hurricanes) that passed near Yokosuka, Buckner Bay, Apra Harbor, Cubi Point, or Pearl Harbor. Wind probabilities were computed from these forecasts assuming present-day forecast error characteristics, and were compared to estimates of actural winds. These data were used to establish tropical cyclone condition thresholds at desired levels of confidence as related to wind probability. Keywords: Weather forecasting; Tropical cyclone strike probability; Guam; Japan; CHARM(Cyclone-Hurricane Acceptable Risk Model); Threat probability.

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Sea state Probability Model Development and Application written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conditions of sea state around severe storms, especially tropical cyclones, are of major concern to ships. An encounter with a tropical cyclone has the potential for causing structural damage and perhaps even personnel casualties, thus accurate assessment of significant and possibly hazardous sea-state events is highly important. Two models that predict sea state based on operationally available input are examined and compared in this report. While it is concluded that both models provide reasonable forecasts of sea height, a preference for one model over the other is shown. This preferred model is coupled with elements of tropical cyclone wind and strike probability models to create sea state probabilities. These sea state probabilities, when tested on independent data, are found to be in good agreement with observational data. The preferred model developed in the first section of the report then is applied in subsequent sections to form a tropical cyclone threat anlaysis and display aid called TCASS (Tropical Cyclone Applications Software System). The TCASS is designed primarily for shipboard applications and may be used by environmentalists as a briefing aid, for analysis of tropical cyclone threat, and as a tool for formulating a recommended course of action.

Download or read book Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities for Selected Stations and the Month of September written by Harold L. Crutcher and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities written by Harold L. Crutcher and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the North Indian Ocean WINDP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 kt and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts in the North Indian Ocean is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum and errors in the forecast radius of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 kt and 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the topical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The present model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model and an Atlantic Ocean wind probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. (Author).

Download or read book Optimum Track Ship Routing OTSR Applications of the Tropical Cyclone Strike wind Probability Program written by K. Nuttall and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Optimum Track Ship Routing (OTSR) Applications of Strike Probability (OASP) system of computer programs is described. This system utilizes a method of forecasting the probabilities of encountering 30 kt tropical cyclone winds in the western North Pacific Ocean based on the tropical cyclone warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam, and the statistical analysis of historical tropical cyclone forecast errors. By applying this method of forecasting tropical cyclone wind probabilities, incorporating ship track evaluation and route generation algorithms, and including interactive and remote display capabilities, the OTSR personnel at the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center, Monterey, California, and other users are provided with a unique approach to display, evaluation, and routing of ships threatened by tropical cyclones. (Author).

Download or read book North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities Volume III 72 Hour Movement written by Harold L. Crutcher and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilities relating to the future movement of North Pacific tropical cyclones are presented. The probabilities are based on observational data of successive 12-hour positions of the centers of these storms. The data are stratified into five seasons (June-July, August, September, October, November-May). For the Western North Pacific, the period from November-May was sub-divided into three additional seasons (November, December-January, February-May). Geographical areas are defined by five-degree latitude-longitude squares. The probabilities are computed assuming the initial storm position or 'origin' is always at the center of the square and the target areas are always circular areas with radii of one, two and three degrees latitude which are also located at the center of the squares. These probabilities indicate the chance of the storm center being within the target areas at the end of specified time intervals. Two sets of probabilities are presented for each square: one set for the case when the origin is at the center of the master square, and a second set for the case where the target areas are centered on this square. Values for time intervals of 72 hours are presented. (Modified author abstract).

Download or read book Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms

Download or read book North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities Volume II 48 Hour Movement written by Harold L. Crutcher and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilities relating to the future movement of North Pacific tropical cyclones are presented. The probabilities are based on observational data of successive 12-hour positons of the centers of these storms. The data are stratified into five seasons (June-July, August, September, October, November-May). For the Western North Pacific, the period from NOvember-May was sub-divided into three additional seasons (November, December-January, February-May). Geographical areas are defined by five-degree latitude-longitude squares. The probabilities are computed assuming the initial storm position or 'origin' is always at the center of the square and the target areas are always circular areas with radii of one, two and three degrees latitude which are also located at the center of the squares. These probilities indicate the chance of the storm center being within the target areas at the end of specified time intervals. Two sets of probabilities are presented for each square: one set for the case when the origin is at the center of the master square, and a second set for the case where the target areas are centered on this square. Values for time intervals of 48 hours are presented. (Modified author abstract).

Download or read book North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities written by Harold L. Crutcher and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: