Download or read book Trading with Friends in Uncertain Times written by Adam Jakubik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-16 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we seek to answer the question of how the patterns of bilateral trade are altered by rising trade policy uncertainty (TPU). Specifically, we investigate whether geopolitical alignments between country pairs determine how bilateral trade flows react during periods of greater uncertainty. Using a structural gravity framework augmented with a text-based TPU index and a geopolitical distance measure based on UN General Assembly voting records, we find a significant negative effect of the latter when TPU is elevated, indicating a shift to trading among “friends” in uncertain times.
Download or read book The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade written by Ibrahim Nana and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-07-09 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically investigates the relationship between uncertainty and trade. We use a gravity model for 143 countries over the 1980-2021 period to assess the impact of uncertainty on bilateral trade. We confirm that, in general, uncertainty has a negative impact on trade. The findings suggest that a one standard deviation increase in global uncertainty is associated with a decline in bilateral trade by 4.5 percent, with fuel and industrial products trade being the most impacted. This negative impact is observed for uncertainty on both sides of the border, with a higher impact of uncertainty from the importing country. The article goes deeper into the analysis and shows that deeper trade integration (horizontal integration) mitigates the negative impact of uncertainty on trade. In contrast, higher participation in global value chains (vertical integration) amplifies the negative effect of uncertainty on trade. We find that geopolitical tensions amplify the deterrent effect of uncertainty on trade. Finally, the result is heterogeneous across income levels, regions, and resource endowment: (a) uncertainty has a negative impact on bilateral trade between Emerging Markets and Developing Economies and Advanced Economies; however, (b) at the regional level, Africa and Europe’s intraregional trade decrease as uncertainty surges. (c) Evidence shows that non-resources-rich countries are more at risk.
Download or read book Divided We Fall Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade written by Shushanik Hakobyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-22 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses differences in countries’ macroeconomic exposure to trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Estimating structural gravity regressions for sector-level bilateral trade flows between 185 countries, we find that differences in individual countries’ geopolitical ties act as a barrier to trade, with the largest effects concentrated in a few sectors (notably, food and high-end manufacturing). Consequently, countries’ exposure via trade to geopolitical shifts varies with their market size, comparative advantage, and foreign policy alignments. Introducing our estimates into a dynamic many-country, many-sector quantitative trade model, we show that geoeconomic fragmentation—modelled as an increased sensitivity of trade costs to geopolitics and greater geopolitical polarization—generally leads to lower trade and incomes. However, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) tend to see the largest impacts: real per-capita income losses for the median EMDE in Asia are 80 percent larger, and for the median EMDE in Africa 120 percent larger, than for the median advanced economy. This suggests that the costs of trade fragmentation could fall disproportionally on countries that can afford it the least.
Download or read book Geopolitics and International Trade The Democracy Advantage written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-02-02 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do political regimes determine how geopolitics influence international trade? This paper provides an empirical answer to the question by analyzing the joint impact of democracy and geopolitical distance between countries with an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows and an extensive dataset of more than 4 million observations on 59,049 country-pairs over the period 1948–2018. Implementing the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood regression and the two-stage least squares with instrumental variable approach, I find that geopolitical developments are not as important as income and geographical distance in determining bilateral trade flows and that democracy fosters international trade and moderates the potential negative impact of geopolitics. While the impact of democracy and its interaction with geopolitical distance are significant across all countries, the magnitude of these effects is substantially larger in advanced economies than in developing countries, reflecting the greater strength of democratic institutions, on average, in advanced economies.
Download or read book Long Live Globalization Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-27 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are we really witnessing the death of globalization? A multitude of shocks over the past three years has unsettled the conventional wisdom on economic integration and fueled widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies. Using an extensive dataset with more than 4 million observations, I develop an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows among 59,049 country-pairs over the period 1948–2021 and find that the much-debated geopolitical alignment between countries has contradictory and statistically insignificant effects on trade, depending on the level of economic development. Moreover, the economic magnitude of this effect is not as important as income or geographic distance and it diminishes significantly when extreme outliers are removed from the sample. The empirical analysis presented in this paper also confirms that the level of income in both origin and destination countries has a positive impact on trade, while the greater the distance between countries, the smaller the flow of bilateral trade due to higher trade costs. Cultural similarities and historical ties are also important in shaping trade flows, just like trade agreements that tend to lead to higher level of international trade.
Download or read book Changing Global Linkages A New Cold War written by Ms. Gita Gopinath and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-05 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, this paper provides new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and compares it to the historical experience of the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade and FDI flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc (roughly 12% and 20%, respectively). While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small and we do not know how longlasting it will be, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. The emergence of connectors has likely brought resilience to global trade and activity, but does not necessarily increase diversification, strengthen supply chains, or lessen strategic dependence.
Download or read book Germany s Foreign Direct Investment in Times of Geopolitical Fragmentation written by Mr. Kevin Fletcher and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-06-28 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global geopolitical tensions have risen in recent years, and European energy prices have been volatile following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some analysts have suggested that these shifting conditions may significantly affect FDI both to and from Germany. To shed light on this issue and other factors affecting German FDI, we leverage two detailed and complementary FDI datasets to explore recent trends in German FDI and how it is affected by geopolitical tensions and energy prices. In doing so, we also develop a new measure of geopolitical alignment. Our main findings include the following: (i) the post-pandemic recovery in Germany’s inward and outward FDI has been weaker than in the US or the rest of the European Union (EU27) as a whole; (ii) Germany’s outward FDI linkages with geopolitically distant countries have been weakening since the Global Financial Crisis; (iii) the relationship between Germany’s outward FDI and geopolitical distance has become more pronounced over the last six years; (iv) Germany’s outward FDI to China-Russia bloc countries is more sensitive to recent geopolitical developments compared with that to US-bloc countries; and (v) Germany’s outward FDI in energy-intensive sectors decreases as destination countries’ energy costs increase, but energy costs do not appear to have a statistically significant effect on outward FDI in non-energy intensive sectors.
Download or read book The Keystone written by and published by . This book was released on 1927 with total page 1478 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sideways written by Keith G. Richards and published by BPS Books. This book was released on 2011-09 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: You don't have to be disoriented by today's "sideways" stock markets, markets that have hit both a floor and a ceiling. This book shows you how to understand the basics of market realities -- from phases to trends to formations and cycles -- so you can profit from a financial reality that others are unsuccessfully fighting or fleeing.
Download or read book Managing Mass Education and the Rise of Modern and Financial Management written by Ian Waitt and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2023-09-01 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book skilfully intertwines three main themes in the growth and expression of management. The essential component to understanding of context is established through a stark exposition of the conditions of society in the 18th and 19th centuries. From these is drawn the, until now, unrecognised precursor of major change: the establishment of mass education. This was achieved through the wayward genius of the charismatic teacher Joseph Lancaster who, despite his struggles with the Church and his own foibles, was able through his attractively cheap plan and dominant guiding idea to bring mass education to Britain, then Europe, the USA, the Americas and much of the world, enabling the institution of the first and second industrial revolutions. This occurred in parallel with the remarkable growth of what was to become modern and financial management. The practical case studies also included in the text, usefully highlight the merits and demerits of major societal transformations. An invaluable and essential contribution to the creation of a new paradigm for Management Studies, this important exposition with its emphasis on the human element and experience, is relevant to all students, teachers and practitioners of management; from school, college and university levels to the postgraduate and experienced management practitioner.
Download or read book Freedom in White and Black written by Emma Christopher and published by University of Wisconsin Pres. This book was released on 2018-06-12 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A gripping true account of African slaves and white slavers whose fates are seemingly reversed, shedding fascinating light on the early development of the nations of Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Australia, and on the role of former slaves in combatting the illegal trade.
Download or read book The Psychology of Trading written by Brett N. Steenbarger and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-01-30 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The one, only, and by far the best book synthesizing psychology and investing. In addition to providing modern, scientific knowledge about psychology, this book provides a mirror into the mind and wide breadth of knowledge of one of the leading practitioners of brief and effectual cures. Will help to cure your trading and your life." -Victor Niederhoffer, Chief Speculator, Manchester Investments Author, The Education of a Speculator and Practical Speculation "How refreshing! A book that rises above the old NLP model of the 80's and provides insights on how our relationship with the market is indeed a very personal one. Not only has Steenbarger provided some fantastic tools for the trader to transform his mindset, but he has contributed unique trading ideas as well. Brilliant!" -Linda Raschke, President, LBRGroup, Inc. "'Investigate, before you invest' was for many years the slogan of the New York Stock Exchange. I always thought a better one would be, 'Investigate YOURSELF, before you invest.' The Psychology of Trading should help you increase your annual investment rate of return. Mandatory reading for anyone intending to earn a livelihood through trading. " -Yale Hirsch, The Hirsch Organization Inc., Editor, The Stock Trader's Almanac "This highly readable, highly educational, and highly entertaining book will teach you as much about yourself as about trading. It's Oliver Sacks meets Mr. Market-extraordinary tales of ordinary professionals and individuals with investment disorders, and how they successfully overcame them. It is a must-read both for private investors who have been shell-shocked in the bear market and want to learn how to start again, as well as for pros who seek an extra edge from extra inner knowledge. Steenbarger's personal voyage into the mind of the market is destined to become a classic." -Jon Markman, Managing Editor, CNBC on MSN Money Author, Online Investing and Swing Trading "Dr. Steenbarger's fascinating, highly readable blend of practical insights from his dual careers as a brilliant psychologist and trader will benefit every investor; knowing oneself is as important as knowing the market." -Laurel Kenner, CNBC.com Columnist, Author, Practical Speculation
Download or read book The Resilient Gardener written by Carol Deppe and published by Chelsea Green Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10-05 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scientist/gardener Carol Deppe combines her passion for organic gardening with newly emerging scientific information from many fields — resilience science, climatology, climate change, ecology, anthropology, paleontology, sustainable agriculture, nutrition, health, and medicine. In the last half of The Resilient Gardener, Deppe extends and illustrates these principles with detailed information about growing and using five key crops: potatoes, corn, beans, squash, and eggs. In this book you’ll learn how to: •Garden in an era of unpredictable weather and climate change •Grow, store, and use more of your own staple crops •Garden efficiently and comfortably (even if you have a bad back) •Grow, store, and cook different varieties of potatoes and save your own potato seed •Grow the right varieties of corn to make your own gourmet-quality fast-cooking polenta, cornbread, parched corn, corn cakes, pancakes and even savory corn gravy •Make whole-grain, corn-based breads and cakes using the author’s original gluten-free recipes involving no other grains, artificial binders, or dairy products •Grow and use popbeans and other grain legumes •Grow, store, and use summer, winter, and drying squash •Keep a home laying flock of ducks or chickens; integrate them with your gardening, and grow most of their feed. The Resilient Gardener is both a conceptual and a hands-on organic gardening book, and is suitable for vegetable gardeners at all levels of experience. Resilience here is broadly conceived and encompasses a full range of problems, from personal hard times such as injuries, family crises, financial problems, health problems, and special dietary needs (gluten intolerance, food allergies, carbohydrate sensitivity, and a need for weight control) to serious regional and global disasters and climate change. It is a supremely optimistic as well as realistic book about how resilient gardeners and their vegetable gardens can flourish even in challenging times and help their communities to survive and thrive through everything that comes their way — from tomorrow through the next thousand years. Organic gardening, vegetable gardening, self-sufficiency, subsistence gardening, gluten-free living.
Download or read book Trading Up written by Candace Bushnell and published by Hachette Books. This book was released on 2003-07-01 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With a brilliant comic voice as well as Jane Austen's penchant for social satire, Candace Bushnell, who with Sex and the City changed forever how we view New York City, female friendships, and the love of a good pair of Manolos, now brings us a sharply observant, keenly funny, wildly entertaining latter day comedy of manners. Modern-day heroine Janey Wilcox is a lingerie model whose reach often exceeds her grasp, and whose new-found success has gone to her head. As we follow Janey's adventures, Bushnell draws us into a seemingly glamorous world of $100,000 cars, hunky polo players and media moguls, Fifth Avenue apartments, and relationships whose hidden agendas are detectable only by the socially astute. But just as Janey enters this world of too much money and too few morals, unseen forces conspire to bring her down, forcing her to reexamine her values about love and friendship--and how far she's really willing to go to realize her dreams.
Download or read book Regulating New Technologies in Uncertain Times written by Leonie Reins and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-21 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with questions of democracy and governance relating to new technologies. The deployment and application of new technologies is often accompanied with uncertainty as to their long-term (un)intended impacts. New technologies also raise questions about the limits of the law as the line between harmful and beneficial effects is often difficult to draw. The volume explores overarching concepts on how to regulate new technologies and their implications in a diverse and constantly changing society, as well as the way in which regulation can address differing, and sometimes conflicting, societal objectives, such as public health and the protection of privacy. Contributions focus on a broad range of issues such as Citizen Science, Smart Cities, big data, and health care, but also on the role of market regulation for new technologies.The book will serve as a useful research tool for scholars and practitioners interested in the latest developments in the field of technology regulation. Leonie Reins is Assistant Professor at the Tilburg Institute for Law, Technology, and Society (TILT) in The Netherlands.
Download or read book Counseling Clients in Turbulent Markets Uncertain Times written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 612 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Radical Business Agility written by Hans Amell and published by BrownBooks.ORM. This book was released on 2022-03-15 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to prepare your business to respond quickly and effectively to the turbulence caused by politics, climate change, pandemics, and economic uncertainty. Future success depends upon the ability to adapt to colossal, rapid changes that lie ahead. Public and private organizational life is changing dramatically. We do not have the luxury of time anymore. Product cycles are shorter and job security is uncertain. Everything is moving faster, and we are experiencing an exponential growth of new technologies and systems pouring into our society. There is uncertainty in the geopolitical arena, and with climate change. There are pandemics, conflicts, and fiscal volatility stress. These challenges make it imperative to become responsive and practice agility in business. Radical Agility provides insight into key factors necessary for agility and the different ways to make your organization more adaptive. It also provides a compendium of tools that will help you implement agile practices into the processes, systems, organizational structure, and business culture in your industry in order to overcome inhibitors of agility—and long-term business success. “A practical, pragmatic guide for leaders who understand the need for real, lasting agility but struggle to make it their reality.” —Andrea Fryrear, President and Co-founder, AgileSherpas “A timely book that provides context and actionable patterns for this new ‘organizational sensing’ that brings true business agility.” —Matthew Skelton, Director at Conflux and coauthor of Team Topologies “This book provides the vision, and more importantly the advice, to help get you and then keep you on the path to business agility.” —Scott Ambler, VP & Chief Scientist for Disciplined Agile, Project Management Institute
