Download or read book Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area written by Mr.Christian H Ebeke and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sensitivity of investment with respect to trade uncertainty. We find that the investment-to-GDP ratio is on average 0.8 percentage points lower for five quarters following a one standard deviation increase in the level of trade uncertainty. We demonstrate that these results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variables and that they are robust to different measures of trade uncertainty and trade openness. Our analysis suggests that the detrimental effect of trade tensions goes beyond lower trade growth, as uncertainty can reduce investment and the economy’s long-term growth potential.
Download or read book Measuring Global and Country Specific Uncertainty written by Ezgi O. Ozturk and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-30 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
Download or read book Economic Convergence in the Euro Area Coming Together or Drifting Apart written by Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-23 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.
Download or read book Alternative Economic Indicators written by C. James Hueng and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2020-09-08 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
Download or read book A Geo Economic Turn in Trade Policy written by Johan Adriaensen and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2022-02-28 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contemporary trade policy is increasingly framed in geo-strategic terms. But how much of that rhetoric is reflected in actual policy choices by the EU or its trading partners? This book provides a first systematic study of the broader international context in which EU trade agreements are conceived, negotiated, and designed. Building on a refined conceptualisation of geo-economics, the book develops a cogent framework that combines insights from scholarship on the design of free trade agreements with ideas from foreign policy analysis. Empirically, the analysis focuses on the relations between the EU and the Asia-Pacific. Following the United States’ pivot to Asia and the EU’s Global Europe strategy, China’s backyard has become the main arena in which global powers’ geo-economic strategies overlap. Building on a series of case-studies, combining the perspectives from the EU and its trading partners, the book shows that the rhetoric of geo-economic competition is yet to catch up with the actual negotiation and design of free trade agreements. This volume will be of great interest to scholars, students and practitioners who want to gain a holistic understanding of contemporary trade negotiations.
Download or read book Policy Uncertainty in Japan written by Ms.Elif C Arbatli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Download or read book EIB Investment Report 2020 2021 written by European Investment Bank and published by European Investment Bank. This book was released on 2021-02-04 with total page 591 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Europe Union's massive efforts to rebuild after the coronavirus pandemic present a unique opportunity to transform its economy, making it more green and digital – and ultimately more competitive. The Investment Report 2020-2021 looks at the toll the pandemic took on European firms' investment and future plans, as well as their efforts to meet the demands of climate change and the digital revolution. The report's analysis is based on a unique set of databases and data from a survey of 12 500 firms conducted in the summer of 2020, in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis. While providing a snapshot of the heavy toll the pandemic took on some forms of investment, the report also offers hope by pointing out the economic areas in which Europe remains strong, such as technologies that combine green and digital innovation.
Download or read book Study into the Role of Tax Intermediaries written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2008-03-10 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report examines the role tax intermediaries play in the operation of tax systems and specifically to understand their role in “unacceptable tax minimisation arrangements” as well as to identify strategies for strengthening the relationship betweeen tax intermediaries and revenue bodies.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook April 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-04-09 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies. China’s growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States. The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened. Elsewhere, natural disasters hurt activity in Japan. Trade tensions increasingly took a toll on business confidence and, so, financial market sentiment worsened, with financial conditions tightening for vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and then in advanced economies later in the year, weighing on global demand. Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but they remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall.
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Download or read book World Investment Report 2019 written by United Nations Publications and published by . This book was released on 2019-08-16 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report focuses on special economic zones (SEZs) which are widely used across most developing and many developed economies. It explores the place of SEZs in today's global investment landscape and provides guidance for policymakers on how to make SEZs work for sustainable development. It presents international investment trends and prospects at global, regional and national levels, as well as the evolution of international production and global value chains. It analyses the latest developments in new policy measures for investment promotion, facilitation and regulation around the world.
Download or read book The Transatlantic Economy 2020 written by Daniel S. Hamilton and published by . This book was released on 2020-03-16 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Collapse of Global Trade Murky Protectionism and the Crisis written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by . This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis of 2008/9 is the Great Depression of the 21st century. For many though, the similarities stop at the Wall Street Crash as the current generation of policymakers have acted quickly to avoid the mistakes of the past. Yet the global crisis has made room for mistakes all of its own. While governments have apparently kept to their word on refraining from protectionist measures in the style of 1930s tariffs, there has been a disturbing rise in "murky protectionism." Seemingly benign, these crisis-linked policies are twisted to favour domestic firms, workers and investors. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org in March 2009, brings together leading trade policy practitioners and experts - including Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo. Initially its aim was to advise policymakers heading in to the G20 meeting in London, but since the threat of murky protectionism persists, so too do their warnings.
Download or read book Euro Area Policies written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-11 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After a sharp slowdown starting in 2018, euro area growth is expected to recover over the course of 2019. However, mounting downside risks from global trade tensions, a no-deal Brexit, and market concerns about countries with high public debt emphasize the precarious nature of the forecast. Even in the absence of a major shock, there is a danger that the area could enter a prolonged period of anemic growth and inflation. Policies should focus on supporting growth while also reducing vulnerabilities.
Download or read book Euro Area Policies written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-19 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The FSAP team undertook a thorough top-down stress testing analysis using end-2017 data. This note covers the methodology and results of the scenario-based solvency tests, the single factor sensitivity tests, and the liquidity tests. The stress test exercise was carried out on a sample of major euro area banks supervised by the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM). The analysis is heavily dependent on comprehensive and granular supervisory data on individual banks’ positions shared by the European Central Bank (ECB). While FSAP results are not directly comparable to the 2018 EU-wide stress test results due to differences in scenarios, methodologies, and objectives, they provide an assessment of the system-wide resilience of the euro area banking sector at the current juncture.
Download or read book Reforming the European Union written by Philip Lynch and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-05-12 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyses the likely future of the EU following next year's Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) which is likely to be even more significant for the future of Europe than the Maastricht Treaty. Since Maastricht it has become clear that future developments are less certain with regard to the EU and integration. The IGC will have to try and resolve tensions such as: "widening" Europe to include former communist countries whislt also trying to "deepen" Europe with increased political and economic integration; providing a framework which is acceptable to a core of countries (Benelux, Germany, France) who favour more integration and an early move to monetary union with countries such as the UK, which does not.
Download or read book EIB Investment Report 2019 2020 written by European Investment Bank and published by European Investment Bank. This book was released on 2019-11-26 with total page 634 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Investment Report, issued annually by the European Investment Bank, provides a comprehensive overview and analysis of investment and the financing of investment in the European Union. It combines the exploration of investment trends with in-depth analysis, focusing especially on the drivers and barriers to investment activity. The report leverages on a unique set of databases and survey data, including EIBIS, an annual survey of 13 500 firms in Europe, which focuses on their assessment of investment and investment finance conditions, and which allows analysis with firm balance sheet information. The report provides critical inputs to policy debates on the need for public action on investment, and on the types of intervention that can have the greatest impact.
