Download or read book Trade Liberalization and Endogenous Growth in a Small Open Economy written by Thomas Fox Rutherford and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: September 1998 Although trade liberalization has been linked econometrically and through casual empiricism to large income increases, attempts to quantify its impact in static simulation models have shown estimated gains. This paper shows that when the endogenous dynamic effects of trade liberalization are built into simulation models, the estimated gains are indeed very large. But complementary regulatory, financial market, and macroeconomic reforms are important to realize the largest gains. Rutherford and Tarr develop a numerical endogenous growth model approximating an infinite horizon, which allows them to investigate the relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth. Economic theory generally implies that trade liberalization will improve economic growth, and the two phenomena are positively correlated in empirical tests, but the connection is not well-substantiated in numerical general equilibrium models. In the authors' model, an intermediate input affects aggregate output through a Dixit-Stiglitz function. Additional varieties provide the engine of growth in this framework and the existence of this mechanism magnifies the welfare costs. In this model with lump sum revenue replacement, reducing a tariff from 20 percent to 10 percent produces a welfare increase (in terms of Hicksian equivalent variation over the infinite horizon) of 10.7 percent of the present value of consumption in their central model, where the economy is assumed to be unable to borrow on international financial markets. If macroeconomic and financial reforms are in place that would allow international borrowing, however, the same tariff cut is estimated to result in a 37 percent increase in Hicksian equivalent variation. On the other hand, if inefficient replacement taxes must be used in an economy without the capacity to borrow internationally, the gains would be reduced to 4.7 percent. Larger tariff cuts-typical of those in many developing countries over the past 30 years-produce larger estimated welfare gains at least proportionate to the size of the cut. The authors apply the model to five developing countries and estimate the impact of the tariff changes those countries plan to undertake as part of Uruguay Round commitments. Because of the dynamic effects, estimated gains are considerably larger than those found in the literature on the impact of the Uruguay Round. This paper-a product of Trade, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the impact of trade and investment on economic growth. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project The Dynamic Impact of Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries (RPO 681-40). David Tarr may be contacted at [email protected].
Download or read book Trade Liberalization and Endogenous Growth in a Small Open Economy written by Thomas F. Rutherford and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although trade liberalization has been linked econometrically and through casual empiricism to large income increases, attempts to quantify its impact in static simulation models have shown estimated gains. This paper shows that when the endogenous dynamic effects of trade liberalization are built into simulation models, the estimated gains are indeed very large. But complementary regulatory, financial market, and macroeconomic reforms are important to realize the largest gains. Rutherford and Tarr develop a numerical endogenous growth model approximating an infinite horizon, which allows them to investigate the relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth. Economic theory generally implies that trade liberalization will improve economic growth, and the two phenomena are positively correlated in empirical tests, but the connection is not well-substantiated in numerical general equilibrium models. In the authors' model, an intermediate input affects aggregate output through a Dixit-Stiglitz function. Additional varieties provide the engine of growth in this framework and the existence of this mechanism magnifies the welfare costs. In this model with lump sum revenue replacement, reducing a tariff from 20 percent to 10 percent produces a welfare increase (in terms of Hicksian equivalent variation over the infinite horizon) of 10.7 percent of the present value of consumption in their central model, where the economy is assumed to be unable to borrow on international financial markets. If macroeconomic and financial reforms are in place that would allow international borrowing, however, the same tariff cut is estimated to result in a 37 percent increase in Hicksian equivalent variation. On the other hand, if inefficient replacement taxes must be used in an economy without the capacity to borrow internationally, the gains would be reduced to 4.7 percent. Larger tariff cuts-typical of those in many developing countries over the past 30 years-produce larger estimated welfare gains at least proportionate to the size of the cut. The authors apply the model to five developing countries and estimate the impact of the tariff changes those countries plan to undertake as part of Uruguay Round commitments. Because of the dynamic effects, estimated gains are considerably larger than those found in the literature on the impact of the Uruguay Round. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the impact of trade and investment on economic growth. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project The Dynamic Impact of Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries (RPO 681-40).
Download or read book The Dynamic Effects of Trade Liberalization written by Joseph F. Francois and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Long Run Economic Growth written by Steven Durlauf and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the most enduring questions in economics involves how a nation could accelerate the pace of its economic development. One of the most enduring answers to this question is to promote exports -either because doing so directly influences development via encouraging production of goods for export, or because export promotion permits accumulation of foreign exchange which permits importation of high-quality goods and services, which can in turn be used to expand the nation's production possibilities. In either case, growth is said to be export-led; the latter case is the so-called "two-gap" hypothesis (McKinnon, 1964; Findlay, 1973). The early work on export-led growth consisted of static cross-country com parisons (Michaely, 1977; Balassa, 1978; Tyler, 1981; Kormendi and Meguire, 1985). These studies generally concluded that there is strong evidence in favour of export-led growth because export growth and income growth are highly correlated. However, Kravis pointed out in 1970 that the question is an essen tially dynamic one: as he put it, are exports the handmaiden or the engine of growth? To make this determination one needs to look at time series to see whether or not exports are driving income. This approach has been taken in a number of papers (Jung and Marshall, 1985; Chow, 1987; Serletis, 1992; Kunst and Marin, 1989; Marin, 1992; Afxentiou and Serletis, 1991), designed to assess whether or not individual countries exhibit statistically significant evidence of export-led growth using Granger causality tests.
Download or read book Endogenous Growth and Trade Liberalization Between Small and Large Countries written by Hans Jarle Kind and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Trade Liberalization and Endogenous Growth written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper has two purposes. It introduces a direct approach to policy analysis in endogenous growth models - the q-theory approach - and uses this to illustrate several new openness-and-growth links that appear when we enrich the economic content of the early trade and growth models. The approach - inspired by Tobin's q - is merely a change of state variables and re-interpretation of steady-state conditions. The main difference is its focus on investment, which is after all, the heart of growth models. The approach's simplicity permits us to complicate the early models in interesting directions and to explicitly include trade barriers. The latter allows study of incremental policy reform rather than mere shifts from autarky to free trade (or small deviations from free trade) as in early literature
Download or read book Endogenous Growth and Trade Liberalization written by Keith Blackburn and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth in an Endogenous Growth Theoretic Framework written by Xin Zheng and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Rationale for Infant Industry Protection and Gradual Trade Liberalization written by Takumi Naito and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A two-final-good, one-primary-factor, small-open endogenous growth model is constructed based on R&D. The model yields two steady states with different growth rates as potential equilibria. Depending on history and the external environment, the economy may fall into the poverty trap in free trade. However, a temporary trade policy can release the economy from the poverty trap. Moreover, the optimal trade policy is gradual trade liberalization with the rate of protection kept to a minimum.
Download or read book Trade and the Environment written by Brian R. Copeland and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-12-03 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nowhere has the divide between advocates and critics of globalization been more striking than in debates over free trade and the environment. And yet the literature on the subject is high on rhetoric and low on results. This book is the first to systematically investigate the subject using both economic theory and empirical analysis. Brian Copeland and Scott Taylor establish a powerful theoretical framework for examining the impact of international trade on local pollution levels, and use it to offer a uniquely integrated treatment of the links between economic growth, liberalized trade, and the environment. The results will surprise many. The authors set out the two leading theories linking international trade to environmental outcomes, develop the empirical implications, and examine their validity using data on measured sulfur dioxide concentrations from over 100 cities worldwide during the period from 1971 to 1986. The empirical results are provocative. For an average country in the sample, free trade is good for the environment. There is little evidence that developing countries will specialize in pollution-intensive products with further trade. In fact, the results suggest just the opposite: free trade will shift pollution-intensive goods production from poor countries with lax regulation to rich countries with tight regulation, thereby lowering world pollution. The results also suggest that pollution declines amid economic growth fueled by economy-wide technological progress but rises when growth is fueled by capital accumulation alone. Lucidly argued and authoritatively written, this book will provide students and researchers of international trade and environmental economics a more reliable way of thinking about this contentious issue, and the methodological tools with which to do so.
Download or read book Trade Liberalization written by Romain Wacziarg and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This compelling two-volume collection presents the major literary contributions to the economic analysis of the consequences of trade liberalization on growth, productivity, labor market outcomes and economic inequality. Examining the classical theories that stress gains from trade stemming from comparative advantage, the selection also comprises more recent theories of imperfect competition, where any potential gains from trade can stem from competitive effects or the international transmission of knowledge. Empirical contributions provide evidence regarding the explanatory power of these various theories, including work on the effects of trade openness on economic growth, wages, and income inequality, as well as evidence on the effects of trade on firm productivity, entry and exit. Prefaced by an original introduction from the editor, the collection will to be an invaluable research resource for academics, practitioners and those drawn to this fascinating topic.
Download or read book Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth in a Small Open Economy written by Stephen J. Turnovsky and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-08-20 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An investigation of the process of economic growth in a small open economy by one of the world's leading economists.
Download or read book International Financial Integration written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, the foreign assets and liabilities of advanced economies have grown rapidly relative to GDP, with the increase in gross cross-holdings far exceeding changes in the size of net positions. Moreover, the portfolio equity and FDI categories have grown in importance relative to international debt stocks. This paper describes the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries and seeks to explain the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets. It also examines the behavior of the rates of return on foreign assets and liabilities, relating them to "market" returns.
Download or read book The Organization of Firms in a Global Economy written by Dalia Marin and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-30 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents a new research program that is transforming the study of international trade. Until a few years ago, models of international trade did not recognize the heterogeneity of firms and exporters, and could not provide good explanations of international production networks. Now such models exist and are explored in this volume.
Download or read book Reducing Air Pollution from Urban Passenger Transport written by Mark Heil and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: October 1998 A policy considered in isolation may be ineffective because of the countervailing impact of other factors. And the success of a policy may itself lead to perverse incentives. Thus it is important to design complementary policies that support the original goal. Controlling air pollution from urban transport requires attention to land use planning, transport needs and modes, and air quality. Air quality is declining in urban areas, in part because of the rapid motorization of societies worldwide. To combat the problem, various pollution control strategies have been used or proposed for urban passenger transport. Heil and Pargal develop a simple framework to analyze these strategies. The virtue of this framework is its simplicity and its separation of factors. The authors examine the point of impact of different policy levers and categorize different instruments in a way that should help policymakers choose among them. The framework explicitly recognizes behavioral incentives, especially the fact that offsetting changes in consumer behavior can often undermine the original intent of particular policies. Among the findings: * Policies aimed at improving transport efficiency often improve air quality at the same time. * But supply-side policies to relieve traffic congestion sometimes conflict with supply-side measures to control air pollution. Improvements in roads and traffic, for example, may increase private motorized traffic conditions, making it difficult to assess the net effect of the improvements on air pollution. * There seems to be considerable scope for low-cost solutions to air quality problems associated with the transport sector. Inexpensive, low-technology solutions, such as establishing bus lanes or paving dirt roads, substantially improve both transport efficiency and air quality. * Behavioral change is difficult when viable transport alternatives are unavailable. A viable public transport system is essential to reduce transport-caused air pollution in densely populated areas. * Fuel and emission standards should become stricter over time. Standards should be gradually ratcheted up to give domestic auto industries the incentive to develop and adopt cleaner technology. This paper-a product of Infrastructure and Environment, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to study the impact of motorization on air pollution. Sheoli Pargal may be contacted at [email protected].
Download or read book Contingent Government Liabilities written by Hana Polackova and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: October 1998 Many governments have faced serious fiscal instabilities as a result of their growing contingent liabilities. But conventional fiscal analysis and institutions fall short in addressing contingent fiscal risks. What approaches in fiscal analysis and standards for public sector management would foster sound fiscal performance? And how can policymakers be made accountable for recognizing the long-term costs of both direct and contingent forms of government activity in their decisions? Governments are increasingly exposed to fiscal risks and uncertainties for three main reasons: * The increasing volume and volatility of international flows of private capital. * The state's transformation from financing services to guaranteeing that the private sector will achieve particular outcomes. * Moral hazards arising in markets because the government is perceived to have residual responsibility for market outcomes. Sources of fiscal risk may be direct or contingent (a liability only if a particular event occurs). Whether direct or contingent, they are either explicit (recognized as a government liability by law or by contract) or implicit (a moral obligation reflecting public expectations and pressure from interest groups). The recent Asian crisis revealed that major moral hazards exist in markets and that sizable hidden fiscal risks may arise from contingent forms of government support. Governments must understand and know how to handle contingent liabilities if they are to avoid the danger of sudden fiscal instability and realize their long-term policy objectives. They can reduce fiscal risks by incorporating contingent liabilities into their analytical, policy, and institutional public finance frameworks. Governments can address fiscal risk through three channels in particular, says Polackova: * By including contingent and implicit financial risks in their fiscal analysis and (to deter moral hazard in the market) by publicly acknowledging the limits of state responsibilities. * By reflecting the cost of contingent liabilities in policy choices, budgeting, financial planning, reporting, and auditing. * By developing institutional capacity to evaluate, regulate, control, and prevent financial risk in both the public and private sectors. Given the increasingly serious implications of contingent government liabilities for the fiscal outlook of countries, Polackova argues that it is time for the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and others to: * Incorporate government contingent fiscal risks in their analysis of a country's fiscal sustainability, policies, and institutions. * Require countries to disclose information regarding their exposure to contingent fiscal risks. * Help countries embrace contingent liabilities in their analytical, policy, and institutional public finance frameworks. This paper-a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to enhance the Bank's analytical and operational work in public finance. The author may be contacted at [email protected].
Download or read book The East Asia Crisis and Corporate Finances written by Michael Pomerleano and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explanations of the causes of the Asian crisis have focused on macroeconomic factors leading to the crisis. This paper offers a complementary corporate distress perspective linking the crisis to corporate finances. Key ratios for companies in various countries are presented in the paper. The global benchmarking imposes a consistent cross-border analysis of financial risk and performance, and sheds light on the crisis. The study provides a statistical review of the financial practices and performance of corporates in Asia: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand benchmarked against financials of corporates in other countries: Latin America, and industrialized countries: France, Germany, Japan and USA. A thematic point that comes across in all the results of the corporate financial analysis is unsustainable rapid (and probably excessive) investment in fixed assets financed by excessive borrowing in some Asian countries- e.g., Indonesia, Korea and Thailand. The East Asian investment-spending spree resulted in poor profitability, reflected in low, and declining return on equity, and return on capital employed. It leads to the conclusion that at the core of the corporate crisis were financial excesses that violated prudent financial practices, and eventually lead to the inevitable financial distress we are witnessing. Therefore, the empirical findings presented in the paper lend credence to the view advanced by Krugman that crony capitalism was at the core of the crisis. Crony capitalism was manifested in supportive bad policies-e.g., implicit government guarantees, and poor banking supervision- that lead to poor credit allocation decisions in the banking dominated financial system. Preliminary findings suggest as well vast differences in Economic Value Added between countries- developing and developed alike. The conclusions from an economic value added approach indicate, that in an era of increasing capital mobility, corporates are not adhering to global standards in creating shareholder value. The analysis leads to policy conclusions.
