Download or read book Trade Effects of a Fixed Rate System in East Asia written by Mizanur Rahman and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2015-07-06 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global trade imbalance against China as well as East Asia is an outcome of 'globally integrated business strategy of multinational corporations,' which has led to the development of production networks in East Asia. As an outcome, economic interdependency in East Asia has grown even stronger in relation to its rapid economic growth. It has also been associated with increasing factor mobility and business cycle synchronization across countries within the region. This led me to conjecture that East Asia was an optimum currency area. Nevertheless, the countries have independent national currencies and conduct heterogeneous exchange rate and monetary policies. This provides the setting for this research. This monograph empirically examines if the actual policy environment relative to the optimal choice, in presence of an external shock, can significantly affect East Asian production networks and thereby the pattern of regional trade integration. While the actual policy environment is characterized by heterogeneous exchange rate regimes of East Asian countries, the optimal choice is assumed to be a currency area arrangement whereby the countries either share a single currency or have their exchange rates fixed to one another. It is thereby an ex ante analysis of a potential institutional arrangement. The conceptual framework and empirical methodologies are designed in order to draw valid inference on both the short-run dynamics and the long-run equilibrium relations between exchange rates and exports. It has been applied in the context of China, where final stages of assembly and exporting have become increasingly concentrated. In doing that, the study uses a unique Chinese trade dataset that distinguishes exports that are produced along the production networks from those that are not.

Download or read book Exchange Rates Shocks and Inter dependency in East Asia written by Sophie Saglio and published by KIEP. This book was released on 2005 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Toward an East Asian Exchange Rate Regime written by Duck-Koo Chung and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2007-05-01 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: East Asian exchange rates have become a global flashpoint. U.S. policymakers blame artificially low Asian currency values for global imbalances, including America's ballooning current account deficit. The solution, they argue, lies in some combination of greater exchange rate flexibility and the appreciation of Asian currencies against the dollar. Asian officials recognize the need to let their exchange rates rise, but they fear that would hamper growth and cut sharply into the value of their dollar reserves. Toward an East Asian Exchange Rate Regime offers a timely and comprehensive analysis of the resulting debates, drawing on expertise from China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. The introduction reviews the issues at stake, sketches a variety of proposed exchange rate regimes, and discusses comparisons between East Asia and the West. Subsequent chapters examine the connection between global financial imbalances and East Asian monetary cooperation, China's potential role in regional coordination, the relationship between monetary and trade integration, and different paths toward regional cooperation. Authoritative yet concise, this is an essential primer on East Asian monetary integration. Contributors include Gongpil Choi (Korean Institute of Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), Masahiro Kawai (University of Tokyo, Asian Development Bank), Kwanho Shin (Korea University), Yunjong Wang (SK Institute), Masaru Yoshitomi (RIETI,Tokyo), and Yongding Yu (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences).

Download or read book Currency Cooperation in East Asia written by Frank Rövekamp and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-07-08 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the opportunities and limits of currency cooperation in East Asia. Currency issues play an important role in the region. The Asian crisis of the late 90s was rooted in deficient currency arrangements. The Chinese RMB is not freely convertible yet, but policymakers in China nevertheless aim for a more international role of the Chinese currency. The recent change of direction in Japanese monetary policy caused a drastic depreciation of the Yen and led to warnings against a possible “currency war”, thus demonstrating that currency issues can also easily lead to political frictions. Most trade in and with the East Asian zone on the other hand is still conducted in US $. Against this background different modes of currency cooperation serve the goal of smoothing exchange rate fluctuations and capital flows. They are an important element to promote financial stability and to reduce the transaction cost for foreign trade or investment. The contributions of this book analyze the environment and design of currency cooperation in East Asia and their effects from a macro-and microeconomic viewpoint.

Download or read book Trade Patterns and Exchange Rates in East Asia written by Mizanur Rahman and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2012-06-30 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In his Testimony on June 23 2005 before the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance, Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, remarked, "The enhanced integration of China into the world trading system is having notable effect on Asia's trade with the rest of the world and on trade within Asia. After having risen rapidly through the 1990s, U.S. imports from Asia excluding China have flattened since 2000. This has occurred as production within Asia has evolved, with the final stages of assembly and exporting to the United States and elsewhere becoming increasingly concentrated in China." The phenomenon is called East Asian production networks whereby production processes are fragmented across national borders in the region. This development is undeniably related to the global imbalance problem. Several studies showed that the build-up of an unsustainable payment imbalance in the U.S. was substantially mirrored in the reserve accumulation by East Asian countries including China notably. These studies predicted that unless "coordination and shared responsibility" led to a gradual adjustment of it, the world economy would move toward a major crisis. Some authors even predicted an imminent collapse of the U.S. dollar, and a global financial meltdown. A global financial crisis indeed began in 2008. The crisis has accompanied a prolonged economic slowdown across the developed and developing world. An unwinding of the imbalance has progressed but in a disorderly way. The moral of this research is that real exchange rate changes and redistribution of world expenditures will continue to play key role in the process of international adjustment. However, our focus would be on how it would affect East Asian exports within the region and between East Asia and the rest of the world. We apply an empirical framework that essentially incorporates the fact that production within Asia has evolved. The consideration has an important implication. It is that exports by country are recorded on a gross basis rather than as value added and therefore the domestic value added is only a part of the gross value of the exports. An appreciation by the exporting country per se will affect only the domestic value added but not the gross value. But a joint appreciation of countries supplying intermediate goods will increase the dollar cost of intermediate goods imported into the exporting country from the rest of Asia, which represents a significant share of the gross value. This was the conjecture of Alan Greenspan. He argued that such a coordinated exchange appreciation would have larger effect on East Asian exports. In fact, East Asian exchange rates are now on a path of real appreciation but in an environment of no explicit coordination. The question is how changes in intra-regional real exchange rates will affect trade along the production networks and final exports from East Asia to the world. This study defines two channels of this effect. The first is the production linkage effect through fragmented value chain and the other is the competitive effect. A real appreciation of one East Asian country against the others will imply an adverse competitiveness effect but a favorable linkage effect. We further examine in this research the evolving trade patterns of East Asian countries. We do it by analyzing composition as well as comparative advantage of East Asian exports by stages of production and across geographic locations. The purpose is to see how production specialization has evolved across the core and peripheral countries within the region. We conduct the analyses for all East Asian countries and over 1985-2008 period. They include Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan comprising the core region and China and seven ASEAN countries comprising the peripheral region. The ASEAN countries are Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia written by Masahiro Kawai and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2004-08-02 with total page 493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gordon De Brouwer is an experienced Routledge author All contributors are leading researchers in the field and are mainly from Australia, Japan and Korea

Download or read book Monetary Policy in East Asia written by Marvin Goodfriend and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper identifies and evaluates consequences for monetary policy of five features of East Asian development: export orientation, integrated regional trade, bank-dependent finance, the potential for persistent trade surpluses, and the aggressive accumulation of international reserves. The case for a flexible exchange rate is made in terms of the New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS). NNS logic indicates why fluctuations in "export optimism" create problems for the sustainability of a fixed exchange rate. Cooperative credit policy in East Asia is discussed by analogy to a credit union. The paper outlines problems for monetary policy created by bank-dependent finance in East Asia. A two-country NNS model indicates that a revaluation of the RMB against the dollar is likely to exert little effect on the US trade deficit, although it should help control inflation in China. The paper argues that China can adopt a flexible exchange rate in a few years with modest reforms of its banking system. Finally, the paper considers various reasons for the accumulation of international reserves in East Asia.--Author's description.

Download or read book Economic Interdependency and Exchange Rate Flexibility in East Asia written by Mizanur Rahman and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines if exchange rate flexibility adversely affects trade integration of East Asian countries in general. The study focuses on China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. These countries pursue fixed, floating and intermediate regimes respectively. The hypothesis is that since the countries jointly organize East Asian production networks and conduct vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT), the impact of exchange rate flexibility would be negative irrespective of their exchange rate regimes. The results validate the hypothesis. The findings imply that East Asia rather than the domain of any national currency is an optimum currency area.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Systems and Policies in Asia written by Paul Sau-Leung Yip and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains papers on lessons learned from some major exchange rate and monetary experiences in Asia, exchange rate crisis management in Asia and choice of exchange rate systems in Asia. This book deals primarily with the exchange rate systems and policies in the three largest economies in Asia: China, Japan and India.

Download or read book Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The paper reviews recent trends in thinking on exchange rate regimes. It begins by classifying countries into regimes, noting the distinction between de facto and de jure regimes, but also noting the low correlation among proposed ways of classifying the latter. The advantages of fixed exchange rates versus floating are reviewed, including the recent evidence on the trade-promoting effects of currency unions. Frameworks for tallying up the pros and cons include the traditional Optimum Currency Area criteria, as well as some new criteria from the experiences of the 1990s. The Corners Hypothesis may now be peaking' as rapidly as it rose, in light of its lack of foundations. Empirical evidence regarding the economic performance of different regimes depends entirely on the classification scheme. A listing of possible nominal anchors alongside exchange rates observes that each candidate has its own vulnerability, leading to the author's proposal to Peg the Export Price (PEP). The concluding section offers some implications for East Asia"--NBER website

Download or read book Studies in East Asian Economies written by Jagdish Handa and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book presents five theoretical and empirical studies on growth, capital flows, exchange rates and monetary policy. The empirical parts of three of the studies use data from the ASEAN-4 countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, with the remaining two studies using data on China."--Preface.

Download or read book The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Flexibility on East Asian Exports written by Mizanur Rahman and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates the impact of intra-regional real exchange rate flexibility on East Asian exports. The hypothesis is that the impact would be negative for East Asian countries regardless of their exchange rate regimes. The results validate the hypothesis. The findings show that for Chinese exports the long-run effect is as much as that of a real appreciation of renminbi. By contrast, for Japanese exports the effect is three times larger than that of a real appreciation of the yen. The findings imply that a regional currency basket mechanism would lessen the adverse effect of exchange rate flexibility and engineer a collective exchange rate adjustment for resolving the global payment imbalance against East Asia.

Download or read book The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia written by Willem Thorbecke and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Real Effects of Common Currencies in East Asia written by Kazuko Shirono and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-07 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the 1997 Asian currency crisis, new interest has emerged in the formation of a common currency area in East Asia. This paper provides estimates of trade and welfare effects of East Asian currency unions, using a micro-founded gravity model. Counter-factual experiments to assess the effects of various hypothetical currency arrangements for East Asia suggest that an East Asian currency union will double bilateral trade in the region, but the resulting welfare effects will be moderate. However, if Japan, a major trade partner for East Asia, is included in the union, welfare effects increase substantially. The evidence thus suggests that certain regional currency arrangements in East Asia will stimulate regional trade rigorously and can generate economically significant welfare gains.

Download or read book Trade Patterns and Global Value Chains in East Asia written by World Trade Organization and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Regional Exchange Rate Management and Trade Integration in East Asia written by Mizanur Rahman and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2011-12-31 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The role of real exchange rate changes and redistribution of world expenditures in international macroeconomic adjustment is as old as the economics science. A truth is that both the forces are simultaneous and will continue to play the key role in the process of international adjustment. A large number of literature estimated trade effects of real exchange rate changes and shifts in relative incomes and drew policy implications for the resolution of global payment imbalances. Only a few studies, however, considered the phenomenon of international organization of production into the modeling of trade equations. The consideration has an important implication. It is that exports by country are recorded on a gross basis rather than as value added and therefore the domestic value added is only a part of the gross value of the exports. An appreciation by the exporting country per se will affect only the domestic value added but not the gross value. But a joint appreciation by countries supplying intermediate goods will increase the dollar cost of intermediate goods imported into the exporting country. This book proposes a clear framework to this end and documents consistent estimates of trade effects of real exchange rate changes and shifts in relative incomes. The standard two-country trade model assumes that the observed bilateral exports exhibit an equilibrium behavior of both supply and demand schedules. An implicit assumption of this modeling is that local value added in the gross value of final exports is substantial. In the context of East Asia, this modeling does not recognize an essential point that the domestic value added is only a part of the gross value of exports and that the dollar cost of intermediate inputs imported from other Asia represents a significant share of the gross value of final exports from an East Asian country to the United States and elsewhere. This book thus proposes a value added approach considering East Asia as an economic region. A reduced-form equation is derived for the gross value of final exports from an East Asian country to the rest of the world. The modeling and estimations bear substantial policy implications for resolving global payment imbalances. The first essay of this research monograph empirically examines if the actual policy environment relative to the optimal choice, in presence of an external shock, can significantly affect East Asian production networks and thereby the pattern of regional trade integration. While the actual policy environment is characterized by heterogeneous exchange rate regimes of East Asian countries, the optimal choice is assumed to be a currency area arrangement whereby the countries either share a single currency or have their exchange rates fixed to one another. It is thereby an ex ante analysis of a potential institutional arrangement. The second essay examines if a choice of fixed-to-floating can be optimal for a national currency in East Asia. If the region itself is an optimum currency area, any regime choice for a national currency will prove non-optimal. The paper examines this proposition for the cases of China and Japan, because these two countries have respectively de facto peg and independently floating exchange rate regimes. The issue of global payment imbalance against East Asia including China, in particular, is one central debate in international macroeconomics. There are two competing views on the issue. The dominant view as borne by the U.S. Congress is that the global imbalance is largely because of the undervalued Chinese Renminbi (RMB). The other view as shared by Alan Greenspan and many others is that a collective exchange appreciation by all East Asian countries will be required to correct the imbalance against China as well as East Asia. The third essay empirically tests the hypothesis that a generalized appreciation of all East Asian exchange rates would reduce East Asian exports to the world.

Download or read book Proposed Strategy for a Regional Exchange Rate Arrangement in Post Crisis East Asia written by Masahiro Kawai and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A coordinated action by East Asian countries to stabilize their currencies against a common basket of major currencies (broadly representative of their average structure of trade and foreign direct investment) would help stabilize both intra-regional exchange rates and effective exchange rates - in a way consistent with the medium-term objective of promoting trade, investment, and growth in the region. After discussing major conceptual and empirical issues relevant to the exchange rate policies of East Asian countries, Kawai and Takagi propose a regional exchange rate arrangement designed to promote intraregional exchange rate stability and regional economic growth. They argue that:For developing countries, exchange rate volatility tends to significantly hurt trade and investment, making it inadvisable to adopt a system of freely floating exchange rates.Given the high share of intraregional trade and the similarity of trade composition in East Asia, exchange rate policy should be directed toward maintaining intraregional exchange rate stability, to promote trade, investment, and economic growth.The current policy of maintaining exchange rate stability against the U.S. dollar as an informal, uncoordinated mechanism for ensuring intraregional exchange rate stability is suboptimal. A pragmatic policy option - conducive to a more robust framework for cooperation in monetary and exchange rate policy - would be a coordinated action to shift the target of nominal exchange rate stability to a basket of tripolar currencies (the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the euro). This alternative would better reflect the region's diverse structure of trade and foreign direct investment.The authors envision no rigid peg. Instead, at least initially, each country could choose its own formal exchange rate arrangement - be it a currency board, a crawling peg, or a basket peg with wide margins. At times of crisis, the peg might be temporarily suspended, subject to the rule that the exchange rate would be restored to the original level as soon as practical. Only in extreme circumstances would the level be adjusted to reflect new equilibrium conditions.This paper - a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, East Asia and Pacific Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to study financial market development, capital flows, and exchange rate arrangements in East Asia.