Download or read book Time Series Evidence of Unemployment Flows written by Monika Merz and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dynamic behavior of the unemployment rate is determined by the worker flows into and out of unemployment. The literature on the dynamics of unemployment flows typically emphasizes the following features: they simultaneously occur over the business cycle, and their size is positively linked to the unemployment rate. Unemployment flows are highly volatile, persistent and countercyclical. Inflows lead outflows over the business cycle, and inflows are more volatile than outflows. This paper investigates possible changes in the dynamics of net U.S. unemployment flows and the unemployment rate between 1948 and 1996 by subjecting all three series to rigorous diagnostic tests. These tests are designed to discover structural instabilities due to time-varying parameters in projectional relationships, one-time breaks, or shifts in the mean. Also, the variables' volatility, cyclicality, and persistence is reported for subperiods suggested by the test results. Diagnosing and documenting changes in the dynamic behavior of unemployment flows and the unemployment rate is important because it helps discriminate between constant and time-varying features, and also between statistically significant and insignificant features of the data. It is a necessary first step for identifying causes for possible changes. Diagnosing and documenting changes also has important implications for the relevance of forecasts involving the unemployment rate and unemployment flows. The test results indicate that structural breaks in bivariate projectional relationships involving inflows, outflows, and the unemployment rate are likely to have occurred around 1958 and again around 1970. The results also show that breaks are more likely to have occurred in relationships involving outflows and the unemployment rate than in those involving inflows. All variables have become more persistent. The volatility of both flows has decreased, but the reduction in volatility has been relatively larger for inflows than for outflows. Outflows have become more strongly countercyclical over time.
Download or read book On the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series Aggregates written by Estela Bee Dagum and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Cyclicality of Worker Flows Evidence from Germany written by Daniela Nordmeier and published by wbv Media GmbH & Company KG. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Die Entwicklung von Arbeitslosigkeit und Beschäftigung wird maßgeblich von den Übergängen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt beeinflusst. Daniela Nordmeier analysiert die Übergänge von Arbeitskräften, also Einstellungen und Entlassungen, im konjunkturellen Kontext. Dabei stützt sie sich auf prozessgenerierte Personendaten des IAB, welche einen umfassenden Einblick in die Dynamik am deutschen Arbeitsmarkt ermöglichen. Die Arbeit umfasst drei eigenständige wissenschaftliche Aufsätze, die zentrale Aspekte dieser Thematik beleuchten: * Zeitaggregation bei der Messung von Arbeitsmarktübergängen * Dynamik der Arbeitslosigkeit in Abhängigkeit von strukturellen Schocks * Modellierung von Einstellungen mithilfe einer Matchingfunktion.
Download or read book Labor Statistics Measurement Issues written by John Haltiwanger and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rapidly changing technology, the globalization of markets, and the declining role of unions are just some of the factors that have led to dramatic changes in working conditions in the United States. Little attention has been paid to the difficult measurement problems underlying analysis of the labor market. Labor Statistics Measurement Issues helps to fill this gap by exploring key theoretical and practical issues in the measurement of employment, wages, and workplace practices. Some of the chapters in this volume explore the conceptual issues of what is needed, what is known, or what can be learned from existing data, and what needs have not been met by available data sources. Others make innovative uses of existing data to analyze these topics. Also included are papers examining how answers to important questions are affected by alternative measures used and how these can be reconciled. This important and useful book will find a large audience among labor economists and consumers of labor statistics.
Download or read book Using Univariate Time Series Models to Forecast Unemployment Rates written by Kaveh Dalvand and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unemployment rate has been always one of the major issues that policy makers deal with. Having a future forecast of unemployment rate can really help policy makers in making right decision. Forecasting is a process that determines what will happen to the desired variable in future, which involves lots of uncertainties and risks, by studying and analyzing the past and the present. This paper uses ARIMA models to constructing a time series model based on historical data and then projecting it to the future to have a forecast on unemployment rate in the state of Maine. ARIMA models have the advantage of relatively low research costs compared to other econometric models and also a good efficiency in short-term forecasting. The time interval for the data is 1996M1-2015M4 and the data are taken from the “Center for Workforce Research and Information” website.
Download or read book The Flow Analysis of Labour Markets written by Ronald Schettkat and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1996-08-08 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Well-functioning labour markets are a precondition for economic development. Here leading researchers present an overview of labour market workings providing new theoretical and empirical insights.
Download or read book Are Shocks to Labor Demand Transitory Or Persistent Evidence from Labor Flows and Wages written by Martha Starr-McCluer and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows written by Michele Campolieti and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Ibss Economics 1999 written by Compiled by the British Library of Political and Economic Science and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2000-12-07 with total page 660 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: IBSS is the essential tool for librarians, university departments, research institutions and any public or private institution whose work requires access to up-to-date and comprehensive knowledge of the social sciences
Download or read book Employment Dynamics and Business Relocation written by David Neumark and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze and assess new evidence on employment dynamics from a new data source - the National Establishment Time Series (NETS). The NETS offers advantages over existing data sources for studying employment dynamics, including tracking business establishment relocations that can contribute to job creation or destruction on a regional level. Our primary purpose in this paper is to assess the reliability of the NETS data along a number of dimensions, and we conclude that it is a reliable data source although not without limitations. We also illustrate the usefulness of the NETS data by reporting, for California, a full decomposition of employment change into its six constituent processes, including job creation and destruction stemming from business relocation, which has figured prominently in policy debates but on which there has been no systematic evidence.
Download or read book Evidence on the Impact of Public Policy on Labor Market Transitions and Unemployment written by Paul Louis Schumann and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Unemployment written by K. G. Knight and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-12-07 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1987. Unemployment is currently the major economic concern in developed economies. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the economics of unemployment. It concentrates on theories of the labour market and examines the critical inter-relationships with the rest of the economy. It provides a thorough evaluation of theory and extensive consideration of the relevant empirical evidence. It emphasises the multi-causal nature of unemployment and concludes that policy-makers should respond with a multi-faceted mix of policies.
Download or read book Unemployment and Growth written by Vitantonio Muscatelli and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Youth Labor Market Problem written by Richard B. Freeman and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together a massive body of much-needed research information on a problem of crucial importance to labor economists, policy makers, and society in general: unemployment among the young. The thirteen studies detail the ambiguity and inadequacy of our present standard statistics as applied to youth employment, point out the error in many commonly accepted views, and show that many critically important aspects of this problem are not adequately understood. These studies also supply a significant amount of raw data, furnish a platform for further research and theoretical work in labor economics, and direct attention to promising avenues for future programs.
Download or read book Business Volatility Job Destruction and Unemployment written by Steven J. Davis and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unemployment inflows fell from 4 percent of employment per month in the early 1980s to 2 percent or less by the mid 1990s and thereafter. U.S. data also show a secular decline in the job destruction rate and the volatility of firm-level employment growth rates. We interpret this decline as a decrease in the intensity of idiosyncratic labor demand shocks, a key parameter in search and matching models of unemployment. According to these models, a lower intensity of idiosyncratic shocks produces less job destruction, fewer workers flowing through the unemployment pool and less frictional unemployment. To evaluate the importance of this theoretical mechanism, we relate industry-level unemployment flows from 1977 to 2005 to industry-level indicators for the intensity of idiosyncratic shocks. Unlike previous research, we focus on the lower frequency relationship of job destruction and business volatility to unemployment flows. We find strong evidence that declines in the intensity of idiosyncratic labor demand shocks drove big declines in the incidence and rate of unemployment. This evidence implies that the unemployment rate has become much less sensitive to cyclical movements in the job-finding rate.
Download or read book Proceedings of the Conference on Gross Flows in Labor Force Statistics written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment written by Regis Barnichon and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
