Download or read book The War on Statistical Significance written by DONALD B. MACNAUGHTON and published by . This book was released on 2021-03-30 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the preface The "threshold p-value"-the arbiter of statistical significance-has been a widely used gateway to believability and acceptance for publication in scientific research since 1925. However, a growing number of statisticians and other researchers say we should "move beyond" these ideas, suggesting we should greatly reduce our emphasis on them in scientific research. These authors are waging a well-intentioned, polite, and vigorous intellectual war on the ideas of a threshold p-value and statistical significance. This is a "good" war, because it forces important issues into the open, where they can be best understood and assessed. This book grew from a sense that the threshold-p-value gateway to publication of scientific research results is highly useful but is also widely misunderstood. The book presents, from first principles, a modern view of the role of the gateway, as used by some scientific journals. The ideas are explained in terms of the recent disagreement about them between the editorial in a Special Issue on Statistical Inference of the American Statistician and a subsequent editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine. The ideas are developed with almost no reference to mathematics. (A computer can do all the standard math if the user properly understands the key ideas.) The explanations are reinforced with practical examples. The discussion shows how the concept of a threshold-p-value gateway helps researchers and journal editors maximize the overall scientific, social, and commercial benefit of scientific research. The gateway does this by optimally balancing the rates of costly "false-positive" and "false-negative" errors in a scientific journal. The book also discusses the important related ideas of a relationship between variables, a scientific hypothesis test, and the "replication crisis" in some branches of scientific research. The body of the book, which covers the key ideas, is roughly 30% of the text. The remainder consists of 23 appendices that expand the ideas in useful directions. The material is aimed at scientific researchers, journal editors, science teachers, and science students in the biological, social, and physical sciences. It will also be of interest to statisticians, data scientists, philosophers of science, and lay readers seeking an integrated modern view of the high-level operation of the study of relationships between variables in scientific research. About the author Donald B. Macnaughton has been a statistical consultant for more than 40 years. He has managed the statistical aspects of research in the fields of experimental psychology, zoology, drug dependence, nursing, education, business, geography, physical education, and inmate rehabilitation, among others. His consulting work supports and informs his main interest, which is to read, understand, and write about the vital role of the field of statistics in scientific research.
Download or read book Statistical Inference as Severe Testing written by Deborah G. Mayo and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-20 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.
Download or read book Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences written by Jacob Cohen and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-05-13 with total page 625 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Power Analysis is a nontechnical guide to power analysis in research planning that provides users of applied statistics with the tools they need for more effective analysis. The Second Edition includes: * a chapter covering power analysis in set correlation and multivariate methods; * a chapter considering effect size, psychometric reliability, and the efficacy of "qualifying" dependent variables and; * expanded power and sample size tables for multiple regression/correlation.
Download or read book The Art of Statistics written by David Spiegelhalter and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2019-09-03 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this "important and comprehensive" guide to statistical thinking (New Yorker), discover how data literacy is changing the world and gives you a better understanding of life’s biggest problems. Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence -- and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders. In The Art of Statistics, world-renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows readers how to derive knowledge from raw data by focusing on the concepts and connections behind the math. Drawing on real world examples to introduce complex issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether a notorious serial killer could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. The Art of Statistics not only shows us how mathematicians have used statistical science to solve these problems -- it teaches us how we too can think like statisticians. We learn how to clarify our questions, assumptions, and expectations when approaching a problem, and -- perhaps even more importantly -- we learn how to responsibly interpret the answers we receive. Combining the incomparable insight of an expert with the playful enthusiasm of an aficionado, The Art of Statistics is the definitive guide to stats that every modern person needs.
Download or read book Regression and Other Stories written by Andrew Gelman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021 with total page 551 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical approach to using regression and computation to solve real-world problems of estimation, prediction, and causal inference.
Download or read book Kursk 1943 written by Anders Frankson and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-12-05 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The battle at Kursk in 1943 is often referred to as the greatest tank battle in the history of warfare. This volume makes extensive use of German archival documents as well as various Russian books and articles. As well as an account of the battle, it addresses methodological issues.
Download or read book Statistics in Social Work written by Amy Batchelor and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2019-11-19 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding statistical concepts is essential for social work professionals. It is key to understanding research and reaching evidence-based decisions in your own practice—but that is only the beginning. If you understand statistics, you can determine the best interventions for your clients. You can use new tools to monitor and evaluate the progress of your client or team. You can recognize biased systems masked by complex models and the appearance of scientific neutrality. For social workers, statistics are not just math, they are a critical practice tool. This concise and approachable introduction to statistics limits its coverage to the concepts most relevant to social workers. Statistics in Social Work guides students through concepts and procedures from descriptive statistics and correlation to hypothesis testing and inferential statistics. Besides presenting key concepts, it focuses on real-world examples that students will encounter in a social work practice. Using concrete illustrations from a variety of potential concentrations and populations, Amy Batchelor creates clear connections between theory and practice—and demonstrates the important contributions statistics can make to evidence-based and rigorous social work practice.
Download or read book Bayesian Reasoning In Data Analysis A Critical Introduction written by Giulio D'agostini and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2003-06-13 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a multi-level introduction to Bayesian reasoning (as opposed to “conventional statistics”) and its applications to data analysis. The basic ideas of this “new” approach to the quantification of uncertainty are presented using examples from research and everyday life. Applications covered include: parametric inference; combination of results; treatment of uncertainty due to systematic errors and background; comparison of hypotheses; unfolding of experimental distributions; upper/lower bounds in frontier-type measurements. Approximate methods for routine use are derived and are shown often to coincide — under well-defined assumptions! — with “standard” methods, which can therefore be seen as special cases of the more general Bayesian methods. In dealing with uncertainty in measurements, modern metrological ideas are utilized, including the ISO classification of uncertainty into type A and type B. These are shown to fit well into the Bayesian framework.
Download or read book Saving Women s Lives written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-03-18 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The outlook for women with breast cancer has improved in recent years. Due to the combination of improved treatments and the benefits of mammography screening, breast cancer mortality has decreased steadily since 1989. Yet breast cancer remains a major problem, second only to lung cancer as a leading cause of death from cancer for women. To date, no means to prevent breast cancer has been discovered and experience has shown that treatments are most effective when a cancer is detected early, before it has spread to other tissues. These two facts suggest that the most effective way to continue reducing the death toll from breast cancer is improved early detection and diagnosis. Building on the 2001 report Mammography and Beyond, this new book not only examines ways to improve implementation and use of new and current breast cancer detection technologies but also evaluates the need to develop tools that identify women who would benefit most from early detection screening. Saving Women's Lives: Strategies for Improving Breast Cancer Detection and Diagnosis encourages more research that integrates the development, validation, and analysis of the types of technologies in clinical practice that promote improved risk identification techniques. In this way, methods and technologies that improve detection and diagnosis can be more effectively developed and implemented.
Download or read book War Is a Force that Gives Us Meaning written by Chris Hedges and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2014-04-08 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: General George S. Patton famously said, "Compared to war all other forms of human endeavor shrink to insignificance. God, I do love it so!" Though Patton was a notoriously single-minded general, it is nonetheless a sad fact that war gives meaning to many lives, a fact with which we have become familiar now that America is once again engaged in a military conflict. War is an enticing elixir. It gives us purpose, resolve, a cause. It allows us to be noble. Chris Hedges of The New York Times has seen war up close -- in the Balkans, the Middle East, and Central America -- and he has been troubled by what he has seen: friends, enemies, colleagues, and strangers intoxicated and even addicted to war's heady brew. In War Is a Force That Gives Us Meaning, he tackles the ugly truths about humanity's love affair with war, offering a sophisticated, nuanced, intelligent meditation on the subject that is also gritty, powerful, and unforgettable.
Download or read book Naked Statistics Stripping the Dread from the Data written by Charles Wheelan and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2013-01-07 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A New York Times bestseller "Brilliant, funny…the best math teacher you never had." —San Francisco Chronicle Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called "sexy." From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more. For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions. And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
Download or read book Statistical Significance written by Siu L Chow and published by SAGE. This book was released on 1996 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive and accessible book provides an overview of the central and most fundamental methodological issue for empirical researchers - how should we interpret statistical significance? Beginning with a thorough introduction to null-hypothesis testing and statistical significance, the book then advances the arguments for and against the current interpretations and the use of significance testing in research. Siu L Chow presents a coherent challenge to contemporary criticisms of significance testing and offers a substantial and thought-provoking contribution to the debate on the proper role of statistical significance in empirical research.
Download or read book On War written by Carl von Clausewitz and published by . This book was released on 1908 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Everyday Probability and Statistics written by M. M. Woolfson and published by Imperial College Press. This book was released on 2008 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability and statistics impinge on the life of the average person in a variety of ways OCo as is suggested by the title of this book. Very often, information is provided that is factually accurate but intended to present a biased view. This book presents the important results of probability and statistics without making heavy mathematical demands on the reader. It should enable an intelligent reader to properly assess statistical information and to understand that the same information can be presented in different ways.
Download or read book Statistics for Political Analysis written by Theresa Marchant-Shapiro and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-01-15 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistics are just as vital to understanding political science as the study of institutions, but getting students to understand them when teaching a methods course can be a big challenge. Statistics for Political Analysis makes understanding the numbers easy. The only introduction to statistics book written specifically for political science undergraduates, this book explains each statistical concept in plain language—from basic univariate statistics and the basic measures of association to bivariate and multivariate regression—and uses real world political examples. Students learn the relevance of statistics to political science, how to understand and calculate statistics mathematically, and how to obtain them using SPSS. All calculations are modeled step-by-step, giving students needed practice to master the process without making it intimidating. Each chapter concludes with exercises that get students actively applying the steps and building their professional skills through data calculation, analysis, and memo writing.
Download or read book The Cult of Statistical Significance written by Deirdre Nansen McCloskey and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2010-02-11 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “McCloskey and Ziliak have been pushing this very elementary, very correct, very important argument through several articles over several years and for reasons I cannot fathom it is still resisted. If it takes a book to get it across, I hope this book will do it. It ought to.” —Thomas Schelling, Distinguished University Professor, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, and 2005 Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics “With humor, insight, piercing logic and a nod to history, Ziliak and McCloskey show how economists—and other scientists—suffer from a mass delusion about statistical analysis. The quest for statistical significance that pervades science today is a deeply flawed substitute for thoughtful analysis. . . . Yet few participants in the scientific bureaucracy have been willing to admit what Ziliak and McCloskey make clear: the emperor has no clothes.” —Kenneth Rothman, Professor of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Health The Cult of Statistical Significance shows, field by field, how “statistical significance,” a technique that dominates many sciences, has been a huge mistake. The authors find that researchers in a broad spectrum of fields, from agronomy to zoology, employ “testing” that doesn’t test and “estimating” that doesn’t estimate. The facts will startle the outside reader: how could a group of brilliant scientists wander so far from scientific magnitudes? This study will encourage scientists who want to know how to get the statistical sciences back on track and fulfill their quantitative promise. The book shows for the first time how wide the disaster is, and how bad for science, and it traces the problem to its historical, sociological, and philosophical roots. Stephen T. Ziliak is the author or editor of many articles and two books. He currently lives in Chicago, where he is Professor of Economics at Roosevelt University. Deirdre N. McCloskey, Distinguished Professor of Economics, History, English, and Communication at the University of Illinois at Chicago, is the author of twenty books and three hundred scholarly articles. She has held Guggenheim and National Humanities Fellowships. She is best known for How to Be Human* Though an Economist (University of Michigan Press, 2000) and her most recent book, The Bourgeois Virtues: Ethics for an Age of Commerce (2006).
Download or read book Statistical Rethinking written by Richard McElreath and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-01-03 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.
