Download or read book An Introduction to Decision Theory written by Martin Peterson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-03-30 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and accessible introduction to all aspects of decision theory, now with new and updated discussions and over 140 exercises.

Download or read book Behavioral Decision Theory written by Kazuhisa Takemura and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-09-29 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the second edition of Behavioral Decision Theory, published in 2014. The main approach and structure of this book have been retained in the new edition. However, this second edition provides a fresh overview of the idea of behavioral decision theory and related research findings such as theoretical and empirical discoveries of preference formation, time discounting, social interaction, and social decision making. The book covers a wide range from classical to relatively recent major studies concerning behavioral decision theory, which, in brief, is a general term for descriptive theories to explain the psychological knowledge related to people’s decision-making behavior. It is called a theory but is actually a combination of various psychological theories, for which no axiomatic systems—such as those associated with the utility theory widely used in economics—have been established. The utility theory is often limited to qualitative knowledge; however, as the studies of Nobel laureates H. A. Simon, D. Kahneman, and R. Thaler have suggested, the psychological methodology and knowledge of behavioral decision theory have been applied widely in such fields as economics, business administration, and engineering and are expected to become even more useful in the future. Research into people’s decision making represents an important part in those fields, various aspects of which overlap with the scope of behavioral decision theory. This theory is closely related to behavioral economics and behavioral finance, which have come into greater use in recent years. This book will appeal especially to graduate students, advanced undergraduate students, and researchers who are interested in decision-making phenomena.

Download or read book Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Download or read book Management Theory by Chester Barnard written by Kazuhito Isomura and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-06-25 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains Chester Barnard’s management theory clearly, faithfully, and systematically. When Barnard published The Functions of the Executive in 1938, it caused a paradigm shift in the research area of management. He aimed to clarify what executives should do, and how and why, as he argued that executive functions and processes are deeply related to specialization, incentive, authority and communication, decision making, and responsibility and leadership. Thus, The Functions of the Executive is essential reading for management students. This book serves as an introductory guide for undergraduate and graduate students to help them understand Barnard’s management theory. In addition, the book enables researchers to understand how Barnard developed his theory. He accumulated a great amount of experience in managing diverse organizations in both the private and public sectors. Then he gradually shifted his focus from scalar organizations, authority, and vertical communication to lateral organizations, responsibility, and horizontal communication. Finally, this book offers businesspeople helpful insights to create an innovative style of management. As a practitioner, Barnard recognized not only the importance of science but also that of art and value. Experienced businesspeople use not only formal knowledge but also their behavioral and personal knowledge, intuition, business sense, value, and executive art to understand the whole situation, balance conflicting factors, and produce creative solutions. Thus, this book also explores the management abilities that businesspeople need to develop.

Download or read book Making Better Decisions written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-10-19 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Making Better Decisions introduces readers to some of the principal aspects of decision theory, and examines how these might lead us to make better decisions. Introduces readers to key aspects of decision theory and examines how they might help us make better decisions Presentation of material encourages readers to imagine a situation and make a decision or a judgment Offers a broad coverage of the subject including major insights from several sub-disciplines: microeconomic theory, decision theory, game theory, social choice, statistics, psychology, and philosophy Explains these insights informally in a language that has minimal mathematical notation or jargon, even when describing and interpreting mathematical theorems Critically assesses the theory presented within the text, as well as some of its critiques Includes a web resource for teachers and students

Download or read book Decision Theory written by Giovanni Parmigiani and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-05-26 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision theory provides a formal framework for making logical choices in the face of uncertainty. Given a set of alternatives, a set of consequences, and a correspondence between those sets, decision theory offers conceptually simple procedures for choice. This book presents an overview of the fundamental concepts and outcomes of rational decision making under uncertainty, highlighting the implications for statistical practice. The authors have developed a series of self contained chapters focusing on bridging the gaps between the different fields that have contributed to rational decision making and presenting ideas in a unified framework and notation while respecting and highlighting the different and sometimes conflicting perspectives. This book: * Provides a rich collection of techniques and procedures. * Discusses the foundational aspects and modern day practice. * Links foundations to practical applications in biostatistics, computer science, engineering and economics. * Presents different perspectives and controversies to encourage readers to form their own opinion of decision making and statistics. Decision Theory is fundamental to all scientific disciplines, including biostatistics, computer science, economics and engineering. Anyone interested in the whys and wherefores of statistical science will find much to enjoy in this book.

Download or read book Decision Theory with a Human Face written by Richard Bradley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-26 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores how decision-makers can manage uncertainty that varies in both kind and severity by extending and supplementing Bayesian decision theory.

Download or read book Theory of Financial Decision Making written by Jonathan E. Ingersoll and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 1987 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on courses developed by the author over several years, this book provides access to a broad area of research that is not available in separate articles or books of readings. Topics covered include the meaning and measurement of risk, general single-period portfolio problems, mean-variance analysis and the Capital Asset Pricing Model, the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, complete markets, multiperiod portfolio problems and the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, the Black-Scholes option pricing model and contingent claims analysis, 'risk-neutral' pricing with Martingales, Modigliani-Miller and the capital structure of the firm, interest rates and the term structure, and others.

Download or read book Theories of Choice written by Stefan Grundmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2021-01-14 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Choice is a key concept of our time. It is a foundational mechanism for every legal order in societies that are, politically, constituted as democracies and, economically, built on the market mechanism. Thus, choice can be understood as an atomic structure that grounds core societal processes. In recent years, however, the debate over the right way to theorize choice - for example, as a rational or a behavioral type of decision making - has intensified. This collection provides an in-depth discussion of the promises and perils of specific types of theories of choice. It shows how the selection of a specific theory of choice can make a difference for concrete legal questions, in particular in the regulation of the digital economy or in choosing between market, firm, or network. In its first part, the volume provides an accessible overview of the current debates about rational versus behavioral approaches to theories of choice. The remainder of the book structures the vast landscape of theories of choice along with three main types: individual, collective, and organizational decision making. As theories of choice proliferate and become ever more sophisticated, however, the process of choosing an adequate theory of choice becomes increasingly intricate. This volume addresses this selection problem for the various legal arenas in which individual, organizational, and collective decisions matter. By drawing on economic, technological, political, and legal points of view, the volume shows which theories of choice are at the disposal of the legally relevant decision-maker, and how they can be operationalized for the solution of concrete legal problems. The editors acknowledge the kind support of the Fritz Thyssen Foundation for an exploratory conference on the subject of the book.

Download or read book The Economics of Artificial Intelligence written by Ajay Agrawal and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2024-03-05 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timely investigation of the potential economic effects, both realized and unrealized, of artificial intelligence within the United States healthcare system. In sweeping conversations about the impact of artificial intelligence on many sectors of the economy, healthcare has received relatively little attention. Yet it seems unlikely that an industry that represents nearly one-fifth of the economy could escape the efficiency and cost-driven disruptions of AI. The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Health Care Challenges brings together contributions from health economists, physicians, philosophers, and scholars in law, public health, and machine learning to identify the primary barriers to entry of AI in the healthcare sector. Across original papers and in wide-ranging responses, the contributors analyze barriers of four types: incentives, management, data availability, and regulation. They also suggest that AI has the potential to improve outcomes and lower costs. Understanding both the benefits of and barriers to AI adoption is essential for designing policies that will affect the evolution of the healthcare system.

Download or read book Decision Making Using Game Theory written by Anthony Kelly and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-03-27 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Game theory is a key element in most decision-making processes involving two or more people or organisations. This book explains how game theory can predict the outcome of complex decision-making processes, and how it can help you to improve your own negotiation and decision-making skills. It is grounded in well-established theory, yet the wide-ranging international examples used to illustrate its application offer a fresh approach to an essential weapon in the armoury of the informed manager. The book is accessibly written, explaining in simple terms the underlying mathematics behind games of skill, before moving on to more sophisticated topics such as zero-sum games, mixed-motive games, and multi-person games, coalitions and power. Clear examples and helpful diagrams are used throughout, and the mathematics is kept to a minimum. It is written for managers, students and decision makers in any field.

Download or read book Insights in Decision Making written by Robin M. Hogarth and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1990-04-18 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do people make decisions? How can we help people make better decisions? How can we best study the processes of decision making? The growing field of behavioral decision research, which seeks to link observed decision behavior to underlying psychological mechanisms, may provide the answers to these questions. The volume is based on a recent conference held to honor the work and memory of the late Hillel J. Einhorn, a pioneering scholar in behavioral decision research. Composed of contributions by leading researchers, Insights in Decision Making provides a state-of-the-art image of work in this field. The range of topics covered includes conceptual and technical issues the bridge the gap between theory and the practical concern of improving decision making, difficulties in statistical thinking, experimental studies of processes of judgment and choice, and the emergence of new paradigms for studying decision behavior. Providing many avenues for future research, Insights in Decision Making will be essential reading for students of the psychology of decision making and will prove valuable to readers in psychology, economics, statistics, and management.

Download or read book Image Theory written by Lee Roy Beach and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1998-01-01 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making plays a major role in virtually every theory of organizational behavior. However, decision theory has not provided organizational theorists with useful descriptions of how decisions are made, either by individuals or by individuals in organizations. The earliest offering came from economics in the form of the "normative" rational view of decision making. The underlying presumption was that decision makers are all striving to maximize return or minimize loss, that decisions are based upon unlimited information, and that they have the capacity to use the information efficiently. They know the options open to them and the consequences of pursuing one or another of those options. The optimal course of action is revealed by applying the appropriate analysis and choosing the most profitable option. The key concepts are rationality, analysis, orderliness, and maximization, and even a moment's thought demonstrates the gap between these concepts and real-life experience. From the viewpoint of organizational theory, the primary problem with the normative view of decision making, and by analogy with much behavioral decision research, is its reliance on the "gamble metaphor." That is, decisions are characterized as gambles in an effort to capture the inherent risk. This metaphor has the advantage of simplicity, but it is a flawed simplicity. This book is about a different kind of behavioral theory -- image theory. It is a psychological theory of decision making that abandons the gamble metaphor and the normative logic that the metaphor supports. Instead it sees decision making as guided by the beliefs and values that the decision maker, or a community of decision makers, holds to be relevant to the decision at hand. These beliefs and values dictate the goals of the decision. The point is to craft a course of action that will achieve these goals without interfering with the pursuit of other goals. The book begins with an overview of image theory that outlines the basic concepts of the theory and a little of its history. The next two parts correspond to the theory's two decision mechanisms, the compatibility test and the profitability test. The final section contains extensions and developments of the theory as well as cognate ideas that have their basis in the theory. This book's purpose is to provide -- in one place -- the theoretical and empirical work that has been done up to now and to suggest directions for future work.

Download or read book Utility Theory for Decision Making written by Peter C. Fishburn and published by Huntington, N.Y. : R. E. Krieger Publishing Company. This book was released on 1979-01-01 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Complex Decision Making written by Hassan Qudrat-Ullah and published by Springer. This book was released on 2007-09-22 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.

Download or read book Decision Theory and Rationality written by José Luis Bermúdez and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2009-02-19 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The concept of rationality is a common thread through the human and social sciences — from political science to philosophy, from economics to sociology, and from management science to decision analysis. But what counts as rational action and rational behavior? José Luis Bermúdez explores decision theory as a theory of rationality. Decision theory is the mathematical theory of choice and for many social scientists it makes the concept of rationality mathematically tractable and scientifically legitimate. Yet rationality is a concept with several dimensions and the theory of rationality has different roles to play. It plays an action-guiding role (prescribing what counts as a rational solution of a given decision problem). It plays a normative role (giving us the tools to pass judgment not just on how a decision problem was solved, but also on how it was set up in the first place). And it plays a predictive/explanatory role (telling us how rational agents will behave, or why they did what they did). This controversial but accessible book shows that decision theory cannot play all of these roles simultaneously. And yet, it argues, no theory of rationality can play one role without playing the other two. The conclusion is that there is no hope of taking decision theory as a theory of rationality.