Download or read book The Management of Uncertainty Approaches Methods and Applications written by Luc Wilkin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For thirty years, the literature on decision-making and planning has been divided into two camps : work premised on rational models of choice and work designed to discredit such models. The sustained critic of fully rational decision-making theories has al ready a long history and a constant message to deliver : in practice, consequential decision-making hardly fulfills the canons of perfect rationality. There is also evidence that decision-making and planning are not unitary processes. Although the concept of "decision-making" connotes the idea of a single process, making a single choice involves a complex of processing tasks : structuring the problem, finding alternatives worth considering, deciding what information is relevant, assessing various consequences, and a variety of others. The aim of this volume is to bring together and try to inter relate some of the concepts and relevant knowledge from various disciplines concerned with one important aspect of this complex process : the management of uncertainty. It is hardly necessary to reiterate the case made by numerous authors about our changing and increasingly uncertain world. Suffice it to say here that it is uncertainty about the future, and in many cases about the past and the present also, which makes decision-making and planning so difficul t. The management of uncertainty may be defined as the way in which uncertainty is treated and processed in decision-making.

Download or read book Uncertainty Management with Fuzzy and Rough Sets written by Rafael Bello and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-01-22 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a timely overview of fuzzy and rough set theories and methods. Based on selected contributions presented at the International Symposium on Fuzzy and Rough Sets, ISFUROS 2017, held in Varadero, Cuba, on October 24-26, 2017, the book also covers related approaches, such as hybrid rough-fuzzy sets and hybrid fuzzy-rough sets and granular computing, as well as a number of applications, from big data analytics, to business intelligence, security, robotics, logistics, wireless sensor networks and many more. It is intended as a source of inspiration for PhD students and researchers in the field, fostering not only new ideas but also collaboration between young researchers and institutions and established ones.

Download or read book Scaling and Uncertainty Analysis in Ecology written by Jianguo Wu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-07-02 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book of its kind – explicitly considering uncertainty and error analysis as an integral part of scaling. The book draws together a series of important case studies to provide a comprehensive review and synthesis of the most recent concepts, theories and methods in scaling and uncertainty analysis. It includes case studies illustrating how scaling and uncertainty analysis are being conducted in ecology and environmental science.

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Download or read book Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis written by Paul R. Garvey and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-01-06 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to

Download or read book Scientific Methods for the Treatment of Uncertainty in Social Sciences written by Jaime Gil-Aluja and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-06-17 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of selected papers presented at the SIGEF conference, held at the Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of Girona (Spain), 06-08 July, 2015. This edition of the conference has been presented with the slogan “Scientific methods for the treatment of uncertainty in social sciences”. There are different ways for dealing with uncertainty in management. The book focuses on soft computing theories and their role in assessing uncertainty in a complex world. It gives a comprehensive overview of quantitative management topics and discusses some of the most recent developments in all the areas of business and management in soft computing including Decision Making, Expert Systems and Forgotten Effects Theory, Forecasting Models, Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Sets, Modelling and Simulation Techniques, Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms and Optimization and Control. The book might be of great interest for anyone working in the area of management and business economics and might be especially useful for scientists and graduate students doing research in these fields.

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Download or read book The Management of Uncertainty written by Luc Wilkin and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Approaches for Managing Uncertainty in Learning Management Systems written by Nouran M. Radwan and published by Infinite Study. This book was released on with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The notion of uncertainty in expert systems is dealing with vague data, incomplete information, and imprecise knowledge. Different uncertainty types which are imprecision, vagueness, ambiguity, and inconsistence need different handling models. Uncertain knowledge representation and analysis is an essential issue.

Download or read book Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Etienne de Rocquigny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-04-12 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modelling has permeated virtually all areas of industrial, environmental, economic, bio-medical or civil engineering: yet the use of models for decision-making raises a number of issues to which this book is dedicated: How uncertain is my model ? Is it truly valuable to support decision-making ? What kind of decision can be truly supported and how can I handle residual uncertainty ? How much refined should the mathematical description be, given the true data limitations ? Could the uncertainty be reduced through more data, increased modeling investment or computational budget ? Should it be reduced now or later ? How robust is the analysis or the computational methods involved ? Should / could those methods be more robust ? Does it make sense to handle uncertainty, risk, lack of knowledge, variability or errors altogether ? How reasonable is the choice of probabilistic modeling for rare events ? How rare are the events to be considered ? How far does it make sense to handle extreme events and elaborate confidence figures ? Can I take advantage of expert / phenomenological knowledge to tighten the probabilistic figures ? Are there connex domains that could provide models or inspiration for my problem ? Written by a leader at the crossroads of industry, academia and engineering, and based on decades of multi-disciplinary field experience, Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty gives a self-consistent introduction to the methods involved by any type of modeling development acknowledging the inevitable uncertainty and associated risks. It goes beyond the “black-box” view that some analysts, modelers, risk experts or statisticians develop on the underlying phenomenology of the environmental or industrial processes, without valuing enough their physical properties and inner modelling potential nor challenging the practical plausibility of mathematical hypotheses; conversely it is also to attract environmental or engineering modellers to better handle model confidence issues through finer statistical and risk analysis material taking advantage of advanced scientific computing, to face new regulations departing from deterministic design or support robust decision-making. Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty: Addresses a concern of growing interest for large industries, environmentalists or analysts: robust modeling for decision-making in complex systems. Gives new insights into the peculiar mathematical and computational challenges generated by recent industrial safety or environmental control analysis for rare events. Implements decision theory choices differentiating or aggregating the dimensions of risk/aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through a consistent multi-disciplinary set of statistical estimation, physical modelling, robust computation and risk analysis. Provides an original review of the advanced inverse probabilistic approaches for model identification, calibration or data assimilation, key to digest fast-growing multi-physical data acquisition. Illustrated with one favourite pedagogical example crossing natural risk, engineering and economics, developed throughout the book to facilitate the reading and understanding. Supports Master/PhD-level course as well as advanced tutorials for professional training Analysts and researchers in numerical modeling, applied statistics, scientific computing, reliability, advanced engineering, natural risk or environmental science will benefit from this book.

Download or read book A Multiple Classifier Character Recognition System Using Fuzzy Theory written by Fumiaki Yamaoka and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Management of Uncertainty written by Gudela Grote and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-09-17 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As I write, the financial systems of the world are collapsing with still no clear indication of what the consequences will be and which measures should be taken to avoid such a crisis in the future. There seems to be agreement though, that the financial instruments introduced in the past few decades entailed far too much complexity and uncertainty and that there was too little regulatory control over the use of these instruments. Management of uncertainty with the aim of achieving self-control is the core concern of this book. It was not written with a focus on financial systems, but many concepts developed in this book are applicable to this field as well. The - neric principles of reducing, maintaining or increasing uncertainties in view of the different contingencies an organization is faced with, the fundamental issue of how much control is possible and who should be in control, and the question of how much and what kind of regulation is necessary with the overall aim of finding an appropriate balance between system stability and flexibility are at the centre of heated debates on the future of finance.

Download or read book Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty written by Anne Laurent and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-07-17 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These three volumes (CCIS 442, 443, 444) constitute the proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, IPMU 2014, held in Montpellier, France, July 15-19, 2014. The 180 revised full papers presented together with five invited talks were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on uncertainty and imprecision on the web of data; decision support and uncertainty management in agri-environment; fuzzy implications; clustering; fuzzy measures and integrals; non-classical logics; data analysis; real-world applications; aggregation; probabilistic networks; recommendation systems and social networks; fuzzy systems; fuzzy logic in boolean framework; management of uncertainty in social networks; from different to same, from imitation to analogy; soft computing and sensory analysis; database systems; fuzzy set theory; measurement and sensory information; aggregation; formal methods for vagueness and uncertainty in a many-valued realm; graduality; preferences; uncertainty management in machine learning; philosophy and history of soft computing; soft computing and sensory analysis; similarity analysis; fuzzy logic, formal concept analysis and rough set; intelligent databases and information systems; theory of evidence; aggregation functions; big data - the role of fuzzy methods; imprecise probabilities: from foundations to applications; multinomial logistic regression on Markov chains for crop rotation modelling; intelligent measurement and control for nonlinear systems.

Download or read book Coping with Uncertainty written by Kurt Marti and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-23 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ongoing global changes pose fundamentally new scientific problems requiring new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of practically irreducible uncertainties, which challenge traditional models and require new concepts and analytical tools. Uncertainty can dominate, as in the climate change debates. Increasing the resolution of models does not always yield sufficient certainty. This book presents much-needed new tools for modeling and management of uncertainty.

Download or read book Uncertainty Management for Robust Industrial Design in Aeronautics written by Charles Hirsch and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-21 with total page 799 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers cutting-edge findings related to uncertainty quantification and optimization under uncertainties (i.e. robust and reliable optimization), with a special emphasis on aeronautics and turbomachinery, although not limited to these fields. It describes new methods for uncertainty quantification, such as non-intrusive polynomial chaos, collocation methods, perturbation methods, as well as adjoint based and multi-level Monte Carlo methods. It includes methods for characterization of most influential uncertainties, as well as formulations for robust and reliable design optimization. A distinctive element of the book is the unique collection of test cases with prescribed uncertainties, which are representative of the current engineering practice of the industrial consortium partners involved in UMRIDA, a level 1 collaborative project within the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7). All developed methods are benchmarked against these industrial challenges. Moreover, the book includes a section dedicated to Best Practice Guidelines for uncertainty quantification and robust design optimization, summarizing the findings obtained by the consortium members within the UMRIDA project. All in all, the book offers a authoritative guide to cutting-edge methodologies for uncertainty management in engineering design, covers a wide range of applications and discusses new ideas for future research and interdisciplinary collaborations.

Download or read book Adaptive and Intelligent Systems written by Abdelhamid Bouchachia and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-09-25 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the proceedings of the International Conference on Adaptive and Intelligent Systems, ICAIS 2011, held in Klagenfurt, Austria, in September 2011. The 36 full papers included in these proceedings together with the abstracts of 4 invited talks, were carefully reviewed and selected from 72 submissions. The contributions are organized under the following topical sections: incremental learning; adaptive system architecture; intelligent system engineering; data mining and pattern recognition; intelligent agents; and computational intelligence.

Download or read book The management of uncertainty approaches methods and applications written by Luc Wilkin and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: