Download or read book The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment EBA Methodology written by Rui Mano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-13 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper offers an empirical model of the drivers of the level of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) that is now part of the IMF’s methodology for the assessment of external positions, including exchange rates. It constructs a measure of the level of the REER and it offers a panel regression that considers a large number of cross-sectional and time varying factors, guided by the extensive literature. Its main contribution is to enhance our understanding of the cross-sectional determinants of the level of the REER, while taking into account the time-series drivers. The framework accounts for the much larger cross-sectional variation of the level REER, and can better explain the time series variation of level REER when these are based on GDP-deflators rather than on consumer price indices. The latter suggest there may be merits to broadening the assessments to include such measures, although further analysis is required.
Download or read book The External Balance Assessment EBA Methodology written by Mr.Steven Phillips and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF’s Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing between the positive empirical analysis and the normative assessment of current accounts and exchange rates, and highlights the roles of policies and policy distortions. This paper provides a comprehensive description and discussion of the 2013 version (“2.0”) of the EBA methodology, including areas for its further development.
Download or read book 2022 Update of the External Balance Assessment Methodology written by Mr. Cian Allen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-03 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The assessment of external positions and exchange rates of member countries is a key mandate of the IMF. The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has provided the framework for conducting external sector assessments by Fund staff since its introduction in 2012. This paper provides the latest version of the EBA methodology, updated in 2022 with additional refinements to the current account and real exchange rate regression models, as well as updated estimates for other components of the EBA methodology. The paper also includes an assessment of how estimated current account gaps based on EBA are associated with future external adjustment.
Download or read book The External Balance Assessment Methodology 2018 Update written by Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-19 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The assessment of external positions and exchange rates is a key mandate of the IMF. This paper presents the updated External Balance Assessment (EBA) framework—a key input in the conduct of multilaterally-consistent external sector assessments of 49 advanced and emerging market economies—following the two rounds of refinements adopted since the framework was introduced in 2012 (as described in Phillips et al., 2013). It also presents new complementary tools for shedding light on the role of structural factors in explaining external imbalances and assessing potential biases in the measurement of external positions. Remaining challenges and areas of future work are also discussed.
Download or read book Cabo Verde written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-18 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic recovery in Cabo Verde is gaining momentum, reflecting a more favorable external environment and the payoff of ongoing economic reforms. In 2017, the economy is estimated to have expanded by 4 percent supported by the double digit-growth in tourist arrivals, the recovery in credit to the private sector, and stronger consumer and business confidence. These factors are expected to boost growth further to 4.3 percent in 2018. Over the medium term, real GDP growth is projected to stabilize at about 4 percent. Financial stability indicators have improved but the level of nonperforming loans remains elevated.
Download or read book India written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-20 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that India’s growth has slowed markedly, reflecting global developments and domestic supply constraints, while inflation remains stubbornly high. Led by falling infrastructure and corporate investment, the slowdown has generalized to other sectors of the economy. The financial positions of banks and corporate have deteriorated. The principal risk facing India is the inward spillover from global financial market volatility. Growth is projected at 4.6 percent for fiscal year 2013/14, and should pick up to 5.4 percent in 2014/15 (at factor cost).
Download or read book Guinea written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-28 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Guinea’s strong growth momentum continues. Real growth reached about 10 percent in 2017 and is expected at about 6 percent in 2018 and 2019. However, the social context remains fragile. Risks of political and social instability are heightened by upcoming legislative elections in March 2019 and presidential elections in 2020.
Download or read book Botswana 2021 Article IV Consultation Press Release Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director for Botswana written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-02 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Botswana entered the COVID-19 crisis with larger buffers than most countries, but significantly less than in the past. The country was contending with structural challenges, persistent negative external shocks and delays in adjustment that had already caused a significant weakening of international reserves coverage and the fiscal position amid high unemployment. The pandemic exacerbated these challenges causing a sharp GDP contraction, among the strongest in SSA and a widening in the current account deficit. Foreign exchange reserves dropped further, though still remaining well above adequate levels. The fiscal deficit widened significantly as the government sought to counter the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis, and implemented a sizeable public wage increase agreed in 2019. The deficit was financed partially by drawing down on the Government Investment Account.
Download or read book Kingdom of Swaziland written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-23 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Swaziland’s growth has been recovering since the 2010–11 fiscal crisis, albeit at a slower pace recently. Growth recovery following the fiscal crisis was broadly supported by the manufacturing and service sectors. In 2015, however, growth is expected to slow, owing to adverse weather conditions and a slowdown in tourism and transport sectors. Swaziland’s growth outlook is projected to remain subdued over the medium term, while it is clouded with downside risks. Growth is expected to slow in 2016/17, followed by a modest recovery in the following years.
Download or read book Denmark 2021 Article IV Consultation Press Release Staff Report and Staff Supplement written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-14 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Denmark entered the pandemic on a strong economic footing and utilized its large policy space built over time to successfully address the crisis and lay the ground for a strong recovery. The outlook is for a rebound in activity, but uncertainty remains elevated with risks tilted to the downside. Macrofinancial vulnerabilities persist as housing price growth has accelerated and household debt remains high. The current account declined but remains in surplus.
Download or read book Republic of Madagascar written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-30 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper presents a study on poverty in Madagascar. Madagascar is a country with general, widespread, and increasing poverty. Most of the population is extremely poor and struggling to pay for food. Madagascar has the potential to grow rapidly. It is endowed with abundant natural resources, a unique wildlife, and a young, vibrant, and rapidly growing population. Taking full advantage of the young population will require higher investment in education and healthcare. Economic inequality appears to have declined and the poorest have in fact increased their consumption. Thus, while it is true that more people are poor today than in 2001, on average those who are deepest into poverty appear to be economically better off today than in 2001. Poverty is primarily a rural challenge. An overriding majority of the population lives in rural areas and rural poverty rates are almost double those of urban areas.
Download or read book Nigeria written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-07 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Nigerian economy is exiting recession but remains vulnerable. New foreign exchange measures, rising oil prices, attractive yields on government securities, and a tighter monetary policy have contributed to better foreign exchange availability, increased reserves to a four-year high, and contained inflationary pressures. Economic growth reached 0.8 percent in 2017, driven mainly by recovering oil production. Inflation declined to 15.4 percent year-over-year by end-December, from 18.5 percent at end-2016. Higher oil prices are supporting the near-term projections, but medium-term projections indicate that growth would remain relatively flat, with continuing declines in per capita real GDP under unchanged policies.
Download or read book Sri Lanka written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-08-10 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses Sri Lanka’s Second Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Waivers of Applicability and Nonobservance of Performance Criterion (PC), and Request for Modification of PCs. The authorities remain committed to the economic reform program and undertook meaningful corrective actions where targets were missed. As a prior action, the new Inland Revenue Act will be submitted to Parliament. The authorities have also strengthened tax administration and are conducting a diagnostic review of the value-added tax. The reform momentum should strengthen further, building on the progress made so far.
Download or read book Denmark written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-06-20 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the recovery of the Danish economy, which is approaching potential, despite growth in recent years that has been markedly slower than before the crisis. Unemployment is low and close to its estimated structural level, and capacity constraints are gradually starting to bind in some sectors. The coincidence of low output growth and increasingly binding constraints highlights Denmark’s reduced growth potential, reflecting structurally weak productivity growth and low domestic investment levels. The outlook is for continued moderate growth, projected at 1.5 percent in 2017 and 1.7 percent in 2018. Activity is expected to be driven by strong and increasingly balanced private demand.
Download or read book Rwanda written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-04 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rwanda has made considerable progress in sustaining high and inclusive growth and reducing poverty. Despite numerous shocks, macroeconomic management has been strong and debt risks have remained low. Going forward, the authorities’ National Strategy for Transformation (NST) aims to make progress toward the SDGs, but its financing will be challenging. A more neutral medium-term fiscal policy stance can help, reinforced with commitments for more domestic revenue mobilization and mitigation of fiscal risks. The central bank moved to a new interest-rate based monetary policy framework and, with inflation below its target range, eased the policy stance. To support their policies and NST implementation, the authorities are requesting approval of a 3-year program supported by the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI).
Download or read book France written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-05 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper examines external developments and competitiveness in France. Over the past decade, the current account has deteriorated from a surplus of 1.2 percent of GDP in 2002 to a deficit of about 2.3 percent in 2012, as France lost ground in goods trade and services recorded just a slight increase in global market shares. The slight improvement of the trade deficit seen in 2012 may suggest a change in trend, although it is still too early to determine. Past deterioration in export performance points to competitiveness weaknesses, rooted in significant rigidities in labor and product markets.
Download or read book People s Republic of China written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-17 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This staff report on People’s Republic of China 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights macroeconomic developments and outlook. China has maintained robust growth since the global crisis, but the heavy reliance on credit and investment to sustain activity is raising vulnerabilities. The consequence is a steady build-up of leverage that is eroding the strength of the financial sector, local government, and corporate balance sheets. This is most apparent in the continued rapid expansion in total social financing. The development of nontraditional finance marks a shift to more market-based intermediation, and the migration of activity to less-regulated parts of the system poses risks to financial stability.
