Download or read book The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment written by Regis Barnichon and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Unemployment Across Countries written by Régis Barnichon and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Forecasting written by Steven Sabol and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) have brought attention to forecasting the labor market using the bathtub model. In addition Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) have made substantial advances to the spillover literature by introducing connectedness tables and plots. We blend the two works to answer two interrelated questions: Are measures of steady-state relationships as implied by gross flows data "connected" to their stock-based counterparts? And second, if the measures are related, how can we produce reliable forecasts with gross flows data? We propose a new method to exploit information embedded in labor flows data to forecast the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio. The forecast evaluation suggests that understanding flow-based methods pays off. In particular, we find forecasting performance to be superior at longer-horizons and conclude that some measures of the labor market become more connected at longer horizons.

Download or read book Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment written by Robert Shimer and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses readily accessible data to measure the probability that an employed worker becomes unemployed and the probability that an unemployed worker finds a job, the ins and outs of unemployment. Since 1948, the job finding probability has accounted for three-quarters of the fluctuations in the unemployment rate in the United States and the employment exit probability for one-quarter. Fluctuations in the employment exit probability are quantitatively irrelevant during the last two decades. Using the underlying microeconomic data, the paper shows that these results are not due to compositional changes in the pool of searching workers, nor are they due to movements of workers in and out of the labor force. These results contradict the conventional wisdom that has guided the development of macroeconomic models of the labor market during the last fifteen years.

Download or read book Do Forecasters Believe in Okun s Law An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-10 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various countries. Furthermore, revisions to unemployment forecasts are negatively correlated with revisions to real GDP forecasts. These results are based on forecasts taken from Consensus Economics for nine advanced countries since 1989.

Download or read book Lessons for Forecasting Unemployment in the United States written by Brent Meyer and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the more structural method in Tasci (2012) - to generalize whether data on unemployment flows are useful in forecasting the unemployment rate. We find that any approach that considers unemployment inflow and outflow rates performs well in the near term. Over longer forecast horizons, Tasci (2012) appears to be a useful framework even though it was designed to be mainly a tool to uncover long-run labor market dynamics such as the "natural" rate. Its usefulness is amplified at specific points in the business cycle when the unemployment rate is away from the longer-run natural rate. Judgmental forecasts from professional economists tend to be the single best predictor of future unemployment rates. However, combining those guesses with flows-based approaches yields significant gains in forecasting accuracy.

Download or read book Hysteresis in Labor Markets Evidence from Professional Long Term Forecasts written by Mr.John C Bluedorn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-23 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in labor force participation, suggesting more persistent effects than is traditionally assumed. Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests indicate that forecasters are, on average, unbiased in their assessment of these positive, persistent effects.

Download or read book ICASI 2018 written by Robbi Rahim and published by European Alliance for Innovation. This book was released on 2018-07-04 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We are delighted to introduce the proceedings of the first edition of Joint Workshop KO2PI and International Conference on Advance & Scientific Innovation 2018 (ICASI 2018). This conference has brought researchers, developers and practitioners around the world who are leveraging and developing scientific technology. The theme of ICASI 2018 was “Empowering Digital Society through Integration of Multidisciplinarity aspect”. The technical program of Joint Workshop KO2PI and ICASI 2018 consisted of 22 full papers, including 4 invited papers in oral presentation sessions at the main conference tracks. The conference tracks were: Track 1 – Computer Security; Track 2 – Big Data and Data Mining; Track 3 – Information Technology and Forecasting; and Track 4 – Social Media Analysis. We strongly believe that Joint Workshop and ICASI 2018 conference provides a good forum for all researcher, developers and practitioners to discuss all science and technology aspects that are relevant to Digital Society. We also expect that the future KO2PI Workshop and ICASI conference will be as successful and stimulating, as indicated by the contributions presented in this volume.

Download or read book The Ins and Outs of Unemployment written by Michael R. Darby and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book An Evaluation of Unemployment Data Needs in Macro Models written by Jeffrey M. Perloff and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment written by Ronald Bachmann and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Employment Forecasting written by Mike Hopkins and published by Burns & Oates. This book was released on 1988 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Ukraine s Revolt Russia s Revenge written by Christopher M. Smith and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2022-03-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “This firsthand account of contemporary history is key to understanding Russia's latest assault on its neighbor."—USA Today An eyewitness account by a U.S. diplomat of Russia’s brazen attempt to undo the democratic revolution in Ukraine Told from the perspective of a U.S. diplomat in Kyiv, this book is the true story of Ukraine’s anti-corruption revolution in 2013—14, Russia’s intervention and invasion of that nation, and the limited role played by the United States. It puts into a readable narrative the previously unpublished reporting by seasoned U.S. diplomatic and military professionals, a wealth of information on Ukrainian high-level and street-level politics, a broad analysis of the international context, and vivid descriptions of people and places in Ukraine during the EuroMaidan Revolution. The book also counters Russia’s disinformation narratives about the revolution and America’s role in it. While focusing on a single country during a dramatic three-year period, the book’s universal themes—among them, truth versus lies, democracy versus autocracy—possess a broader urgency for our times. That urgency burns particularly hot for the United States and all other countries that are the targets of Russia's cyber warfare and other forms of political skullduggery. From his posting in U.S. Embassy Kyiv (2012–14), the author observed and reported first-hand on the EuroMaidan Revolution that wrested power from corrupt pro-Kremlin Ukrainian autocrat Viktor Yanukovych. The book also details Russia’s attempt to abort the Ukrainian revolution through threats, economic pressure, lies, and intimidation. When all of that failed, the Kremlin exacted revenge by annexing Ukraine's territory of Crimea and fomenting and sustaining a hybrid war in eastern Ukraine that has killed more than 13,000 people and continues to this day. Ukraine's Revolt, Russia’s Revenge is based on the author’s own observations and the multitude of reports of his Embassy colleagues who were eyewitnesses to a crucial event in contemporary history.

Download or read book The Ins and Outs of Unemployment written by Fabio Canova and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short Term Unemployment written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-25 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed’s series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation.

Download or read book Unemployment Variation Over the Business Cycles written by Saeed Moshiri and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asymmetry has been well documented in the business cycle literature. The asymmetric business cycle suggests that major macroeconomic series, such as a country's unemployment rate, are non-linear and, therefore, the use of linear models to explain their behavior and forecast their future values may not be appropriate. Many researchers have focused on providing evidence for the non-linearity in the unemployment series. Only recently have there been some developments in applying non-linear models to estimate and forecast unemployment rates. A major concern of non-linear modeling is the model specification problem; it is very hard to test all possible non-linear specifications, and to select the most appropriate specification for a particular model. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models provide a solution to the difficulty of forecasting unemployment over the asymmetric business cycle. ANN models are non-linear, do not rely upon the classical regression assumptions, are capable of learning the structure of all kinds of patterns in a data set with a specified degree of accuracy and can then use this structure to forecast future values of the data. In this paper, we apply two ANN models, a back-propagation model and a generalized regression neural network model to estimate and forecast postwar aggregate unemployment rates in the US, Canada, UK, France, and Japan. We compare the out-of-sample forecast results obtained by the ANN models with those obtained by several linear and non-linear times series models currently used in the literature. It is shown that the artificial neural network models are able to forecast the unemployment series as well as, and in some cases, better than, the other univariate econometrics time series models in our test.

Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike