Download or read book A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.

Download or read book Managing Expectations written by George Pitagorsky and published by . This book was released on 2017-01-25 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-06 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.

Download or read book Expectations written by Arie Arnon and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-03-20 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a unique historical perspective on expectations in economic theory, and applications of expectations models in economic history. Based on papers presented at the 2017 Thomas Guggenheim Conference, it brings together the work of economists, historians of economics, and economic historians on issues and events concerning expectations in economics and economic history. The contributions address: (i) the history of expectations models; (ii) growth, expectations and political economy; (iii) controversies regarding expectations methods and models; (iv) expectations in theory and reality; and (v) expectations in economic history. The book opens with a lecture by Thomas Guggenheim Prize winner Duncan Foley on the evolution of expectations in modern economic thought. The remaining content is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on the utilization of expectations in the “ancient” and “meso” periods of high theory, i.e., from Smithian to Keynesian approaches. The papers cover topics such as “modern” applications of expectations in both “Tobinesque-Phillips” and “Harrodian-Solowian” contexts, and the debate between Friedmanite and Keynesian approaches to expectation formation. In turn, the last part presents essays on the role of economic expectations in connection with historical events and contexts, ranging from the early 20th century to World War II, and on the application of expectations theory to hyperinflation and stabilization, taking Israel as a case study.

Download or read book Uncertainty Expectations and Financial Instability written by Eric Barthalon and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2014-11-18 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Eric Barthalon applies the neglected theory of psychological time and memory decay of Nobel Prize–winning economist Maurice Allais (1911–2010) to model investors' psychology in the present context of recurrent financial crises. Shaped by the behavior of the demand for money during episodes of hyperinflation, Allais's theory suggests economic agents perceive the flow of clocks' time and forget the past at a context-dependent pace: rapidly in the presence of persistent and accelerating inflation and slowly in the event of the opposite situation. Barthalon recasts Allais's work as a general theory of "expectations" under uncertainty, narrowing the gap between economic theory and investors' behavior. Barthalon extends Allais's theory to the field of financial instability, demonstrating its relevance to nominal interest rates in a variety of empirical scenarios and the positive nonlinear feedback that exists between asset price inflation and the demand for risky assets. Reviewing the works of the leading protagonists in the expectations controversy, Barthalon exposes the limitations of adaptive and rational expectations models and, by means of the perceived risk of loss, calls attention to the speculative bubbles that lacked the positive displacement discussed in Kindleberger's model of financial crises. He ultimately extrapolates Allaisian theory into a pragmatic approach to investor behavior and the natural instability of financial markets. He concludes with the policy implications for governments and regulators. Balanced and coherent, this book will be invaluable to researchers working in macreconomics, financial economics, behavioral finance, decision theory, and the history of economic thought.

Download or read book Expectations and Actions written by Norman T. Feather and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-12-30 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1982, this book examines the current status of expectancy-value models in psychology. The focus is upon cognitive models that relate action to the perceived attractiveness or aversiveness of expected consequences. A person’s behavior is seen to bear some relation to the expectations the person holds and the subjective value of the consequences that might occur following the action. Despite widespread interest in the expectancy-value (valence) approach at the time, there was no book that looked at its current status and discussed its strengths and its weaknesses, using contributions from some of the theorists who were involved in its original and subsequent development and from others who were influenced by it or had cause to examine the approach closely. This book was planned to meet this need. The chapters in this book relate to such areas as achievement motivation, attribution theory, information feedback, organizational psychology, the psychology of values and attitudes, and decision theory and in some cases they advance the expectancy-value approach further and, in other cases, point to some of its deficiencies.

Download or read book Consumer Expectations written by Richard Thomas Curtin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-07 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Richard Curtin has directed the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment surveys for more than four decades. His analyses of recent trends in consumer expectations are regularly covered in the worldwide press. In this book, Curtin presents a new theory of expectations. Whereas conventional theories presume that consumers play a passive role in the macro economy, simply reacting to current trends in incomes, prices, and interest rates, Curtin proposes a new empirically consistent theory. He argues that expectations are formed by an automatic process that utilizes conscious and nonconscious processes, passion and reason, information from public and private sources, and social networks. Consumers ultimately reach a decision that serves both the micro decision needs of individuals and reflects the common influence of the macro environment. Drawing on empirical observations, Curtin not only demonstrates the importance of consumer sentiment, but also how it can foreshadow the cyclical turning points in the economy.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book Managing Stakeholder Expectations for Project Success written by Ori Schibi and published by J. Ross Publishing. This book was released on 2013-10-13 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing Stakeholder Expectations for Project Success provides a practical approach to managing those things that matter most for project success—stakeholder expectations, communication, risk, change, and quality—so that scope, schedule, and cost end up on target and the project’s intended benefits for the organization are realized. This unique desk reference shows how to utilize the best practices, concepts, and methodologies found in PMI’s PMBOK® Guide, along with a few concepts from APMG’s PRINCE2, and leverage them in the context of organizational challenges and project realities. It features new methods for successful project management that focus on understanding and managing stakeholders’ needs and expectations, communication, time management, and organizational politics and culture. The book’s content and design also make it a valuable resource for PMP® certification. J. Ross Publishing offers an add-on at a nominal cost — Downloadable, customizable tools, presentations and templates ready for immediate implementation.

Download or read book Handbook of Social Psychology written by John DeLamater and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-24 with total page 570 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Psychology, focusing on processes that occur inside the individual and Sociology, focusing on social collectives and social institutions, come together in Social Psychology to explore the interface between the two fields. The core concerns of social psychology include the impact of one individual on another; the impact of a group on its individual members; the impact of individuals on the groups in which they participate; the impact of one group on another. This book is a successor to Social Psychology: Social Perspectives and Sociological Perspectives in Social Psychology. The current text expands on previous handbooks in social psychology by including recent developments in theory and research and comprehensive coverage of significant theoretical perspectives.

Download or read book Rational Expectations and Inflation written by Thomas J. Sargent and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-05-05 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fully expanded edition of the Nobel Prize–winning economist's classic book This collection of essays uses the lens of rational expectations theory to examine how governments anticipate and plan for inflation, and provides insight into the pioneering research for which Thomas Sargent was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in economics. Rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic decisions, yet applying the theory to macroeconomics and econometrics is technically demanding. Here, Sargent engages with practical problems in economics in a less formal, noneconometric way, demonstrating how rational expectations can satisfactorily interpret a range of historical and contemporary events. He focuses on periods of actual or threatened depreciation in the value of a nation's currency. Drawing on historical attempts to counter inflation, from the French Revolution and the aftermath of World War I to the economic policies of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, Sargent finds that there is no purely monetary cure for inflation; rather, monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. This fully expanded edition of Rational Expectations and Inflation includes Sargent's 2011 Nobel lecture, "United States Then, Europe Now." It also features new articles on the macroeconomics of the French Revolution and government budget deficits.

Download or read book Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice written by Robert E. Lucas and published by U of Minnesota Press. This book was released on 1988 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.

Download or read book A Theory of Legitimate Expectations for Public Administration written by Alexander Brown and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Should governmental administrative agencies be liable to pay compensation to agents who suffer losses as a result of a policy U-turn? Drawing on insights from political and legal theory, Alexander Brown argues that agencies should be held liable for losses they directly cause by creating and then frustrating legitimate expectations.

Download or read book General Theory Of Employment Interest And Money written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Atlantic Publishers & Dist. This book was released on 2016-04 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John Maynard Keynes is the great British economist of the twentieth century whose hugely influential work The General Theory of Employment, Interest and * is undoubtedly the century's most important book on economics--strongly influencing economic theory and practice, particularly with regard to the role of government in stimulating and regulating a nation's economic life. Keynes's work has undergone significant revaluation in recent years, and "Keynesian" views which have been widely defended for so long are now perceived as at odds with Keynes's own thinking. Recent scholarship and research has demonstrated considerable rivalry and controversy concerning the proper interpretation of Keynes's works, such that recourse to the original text is all the more important. Although considered by a few critics that the sentence structures of the book are quite incomprehensible and almost unbearable to read, the book is an essential reading for all those who desire a basic education in economics. The key to understanding Keynes is the notion that at particular times in the business cycle, an economy can become over-productive (or under-consumptive) and thus, a vicious spiral is begun that results in massive layoffs and cuts in production as businesses attempt to equilibrate aggregate supply and demand. Thus, full employment is only one of many or multiple macro equilibria. If an economy reaches an underemployment equilibrium, something is necessary to boost or stimulate demand to produce full employment. This something could be business investment but because of the logic and individualist nature of investment decisions, it is unlikely to rapidly restore full employment. Keynes logically seizes upon the public budget and government expenditures as the quickest way to restore full employment. Borrowing the * to finance the deficit from private households and businesses is a quick, direct way to restore full employment while at the same time, redirecting or siphoning

Download or read book Role Theory written by Bruce J. Biddle and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Role Theory: Expectations, Identities, and Behaviors presents the applications of role concepts for education, social work, and clinical practice. This book examines the advantages as well as the shortcomings of the role stance. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of behaviors that are characteristics of persons within contexts and the various processes that are employed to explain and predict those behaviors. This text then examines the concepts of the role field and discovers their applications to social problems of pressing concern. Other chapters consider the empirical evidence that has been developed within the role orientation concerning social problems. This book discusses as well the behavioral comparability, behavior linkage, behavioral effects, and complex linking concepts for behaviors. The final chapter discusses how contexts may affect the behaviors of persons and how those behaviors may have subsequent functions. This book is a valuable resource for anthropologists, sociologists, and social psychologists.

Download or read book Policyholder s Reasonable Expectations written by Yong Qiang Han and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2016-11-03 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, protecting contractual parties' reasonable expectations has incrementally gained judicial recognition in English contract law. In contrast, however, the similar 'doctrine' of 'policyholder's reasonable expectations' has been largely rejected in English insurance law. This is injurious, firstly, to both the consumer and business policyholder's reasonable expectations of coverage of particular risks, and, secondly, to consumer policyholder's reasonable expectations of bonuses in with-profits life insurance. To remedy these problems, this book argues for an incremental but definite acceptance of the conception of policyholder's reasonable expectations in English insurance law. It firstly discusses the homogeneity between insurance law and contract law, as well as the role of (reasonable) expectations and their relevance to the emerging duty of good faith in contract law. Secondly, following a review and re-characterisation of the American insurance law 'doctrine' of reasonable expectations, the book addresses the conventional English objections to the reasonable expectations approach in insurance law. In passing, it also rethinks the approach to the protection of policyholder's reasonable expectations of bonuses in with-profits life insurance through a revisit to the (in)famous case Equitable Life Assurance Society v Hyman [2000] UKHL 39, particularly to its relevant business and regulatory background.

Download or read book Transformative Classroom Management written by John Shindler and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-11-04 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Transformative Classroom Management The natural condition of any classroom is harmonious, satisfying, and productive, so why do so many teachers struggle with problems of apathy, hostility, anxiety, inefficiency, and resistance? In this groundbreaking book, education expert John Shindler presents a powerful model, Transformative Classroom Management (TCM), that can be implemented by any teacher to restore the natural positive feelings in his or her classroom—the love of learning, collaboration, inspiration, and giving—and create a productive learning environment in which all students can achieve. Unlike other classroom management systems that view problems as something to be “handled,” TCM offers suggestions for creating optimal conditions for learning, performance, motivation, and growth. This practical book shows teachers how to abandon ineffective short-term gimmicks, bribes, and punishments and adopt the proven management practices and new habits of mind that will transform their classrooms. Praise for Transformative Classroom Management “Transformative Classroom Management is a practical resource that explains the how and why of classroom management for novice and veteran teachers. Dr. Shindler recognizes the importance of preserving the teacher’s sanity while ensuring the student’s development of a personal sense of responsibility and a positive self-esteem.” —Eileen Matus, principal, South Toms River Elementary School, New Jersey “I have read many other management books by other authors, but Transformative Classroom Management has been the best so far at demystifying the invisible forces in the classroom.” —WILL McELROY, 4th grade teacher, Los Angeles United School District “This book was an invaluable tool for me during my student teaching. It served as a reference book that I found myself continually drawn to while struggling to find ways to effectively manage 29 first graders. The ideas, concepts and suggestions in the book were so innovative and helpful that even my Master Teacher found herself implementing some of the ideas! A must have for all student teachers!” —Carol Gillon, student teacher, Seattle University “Insightful and thoroughly researched, Transformative Classroom Management is an invaluable tool to help teachers, newbies and veterans alike, develop fully functional and engaged learning communities.” —LISA GAMACHE RODRIGUEZ, teacher, Los Angeles Unified School District