Download or read book The Effects of General Policy Uncertainty on Trade Flows and U S Wages written by Tian Liu and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays at the crossroads of international trade and the labor market. We measure the degree of uncertainty using a general and well-established methodology based on Baker et al. (2016). We investigate the degree to which trade policy uncertainty (TPU) at the industry-country-year level affects the global trade flows of major importers and exporters (e.g., the U.S., Canada, China, Mexico, and the European Union). Similarly, we construct the U.S. index of economic uncertainty at the industry-year level to investigate its effects on U.S. wages. In the first essay, we use a text-mining approach to construct a general index of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) for the U.S. and some of its main trade partners. This TPU index captures uncertainty on U.S. trade policy at a very detailed level (partner and industry levels) from 2001 to 2017 based on US trade-related news information. It's general, thereby enabling us to control for uncertainty relative to the use of highly-regulated tariff barriers under the WTO, temporary trade barriers (TTB), export restrictions, and potential reinterpretations of trade-related national security concerns, among others. Results suggest that a one-standard-deviation increase in policy uncertainty tends to decrease U.S. imports by 1.14 percent. In contrast, uncertainty on the trade policy applied by U.S. trade partners tends to reduce U.S. exports only to markets where the importers display a significant market power level. The results also show that the effects of trade policy uncertainty are mitigated with the formation of preferential trade arrangements (PTAs). In the second essay, motivated by the important findings of U.S. TPU effects on U.S. trade flows, we extend the study to another four markets, namely, Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union, and their trade partners. We construct a TPU index for each of these four markets based on their news information using the same method applied to the first essay. Again, this TPU index captures uncertainty on the trade policies of these four markets at the importer-exporter-industry level from 2001 to 2017. The primary findings of the second essay are very much in line with the previous results. Uncertainty on the trade policy implemented by Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU tends to lower their imports. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation increase in policy uncertainty is associated with a decline of 0.71 percent in their imports. Moreover, uncertainty on the trade policy applied by the trade partners of these four groups is more likely to reduce their exports. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation increase in TPU leads to a decline of 0.62 percent in these four markets' exports. The impact of trade policy uncertainty on imports and exports for each of the four markets is also negative. In addition, PTAs tend to mitigate the negative effect of trade uncertainties on these four markets' trade flows. In the third essay, we study the reaction of the labor market to the economic uncertainty in the U.S. We specifically construct the U.S. economic uncertainty index with the same method we used to create the TPU in the previous two chapters on wages. The economic uncertainty index is generated based on U.S. economic-related news information that captures uncertainty on U.S. economic events and policies at the industry level from 2001 to 2018. Interestingly, the increase in economic uncertainty is likely to reduce wages in the U.S. labor market. Our result shows that the total effects of the concurrent and lagged economic uncertainty indexes cause a decline in wages by 2.12 percent. We also get plausible results by constructing alternative U.S. economic uncertainty indices using 1) newspapers released by other countries and 2) other countries' economic uncertainty indexes as instruments.
Download or read book A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis written by Marc Bacchetta and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Trade flows and trade policies need to be properly quantified to describe, compare, or follow the evolution of policies between sectors or countries or over time. This is essential to ensure that policy choices are made with an appropriate knowledge of the real conditions. This practical guide introduces the main techniques of trade and trade policy data analysis. It shows how to develop the main indexes used to analyze trade flows, tariff structures, and non-tariff measures. It presents the databases needed to construct these indexes as well as the challenges faced in collecting and processing these data, such as measurement errors or aggregation bias. Written by experts with practical experience in the field, A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis has been developed to contribute to enhance developing countries' capacity to analyze and implement trade policy. It offers a hands-on introduction on how to estimate the distributional effects of trade policies on welfare, in particular on inequality and poverty. The guide is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research. An accompanying DVD contains data sets and program command files required for the exercises. Copublished by the WTO and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
Download or read book The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade written by Ibrahim Nana and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-07-09 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically investigates the relationship between uncertainty and trade. We use a gravity model for 143 countries over the 1980-2021 period to assess the impact of uncertainty on bilateral trade. We confirm that, in general, uncertainty has a negative impact on trade. The findings suggest that a one standard deviation increase in global uncertainty is associated with a decline in bilateral trade by 4.5 percent, with fuel and industrial products trade being the most impacted. This negative impact is observed for uncertainty on both sides of the border, with a higher impact of uncertainty from the importing country. The article goes deeper into the analysis and shows that deeper trade integration (horizontal integration) mitigates the negative impact of uncertainty on trade. In contrast, higher participation in global value chains (vertical integration) amplifies the negative effect of uncertainty on trade. We find that geopolitical tensions amplify the deterrent effect of uncertainty on trade. Finally, the result is heterogeneous across income levels, regions, and resource endowment: (a) uncertainty has a negative impact on bilateral trade between Emerging Markets and Developing Economies and Advanced Economies; however, (b) at the regional level, Africa and Europe’s intraregional trade decrease as uncertainty surges. (c) Evidence shows that non-resources-rich countries are more at risk.
Download or read book Alternative Economic Indicators written by C. James Hueng and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2020-09-08 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
Download or read book Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises written by Allen N. Berger and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2015-11-24 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises delivers a consistent, logical presentation of bank liquidity creation and addresses questions of research and policy interest that can be easily understood by readers with no advanced or specialized industry knowledge. Authors Allen Berger and Christa Bouwman examine ways to measure bank liquidity creation, how much liquidity banks create in different countries, the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, the effects of bailouts, and much more. They also analyze bank liquidity creation in the US over the past three decades during both normal times and financial crises. Narrowing the gap between the "academic world" (focused on theories) and the "practitioner world" (dedicated to solving real-world problems), this book is a helpful new tool for evaluating a bank's performance over time and comparing it to its peer group. - Explains that bank liquidity creation is a more comprehensive measure of a bank's output than traditional measures and can also be used to measure bank liquidity - Describes how high levels of bank liquidity creation may cause or predict future financial crises - Addresses questions of research and policy interest related to bank liquidity creation around the world and provides links to websites with data and other materials to address these questions - Includes such hot-button topics as the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, and the effects of bailouts
Download or read book The Collapse of Global Trade Murky Protectionism and the Crisis written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by . This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis of 2008/9 is the Great Depression of the 21st century. For many though, the similarities stop at the Wall Street Crash as the current generation of policymakers have acted quickly to avoid the mistakes of the past. Yet the global crisis has made room for mistakes all of its own. While governments have apparently kept to their word on refraining from protectionist measures in the style of 1930s tariffs, there has been a disturbing rise in "murky protectionism." Seemingly benign, these crisis-linked policies are twisted to favour domestic firms, workers and investors. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org in March 2009, brings together leading trade policy practitioners and experts - including Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo. Initially its aim was to advise policymakers heading in to the G20 meeting in London, but since the threat of murky protectionism persists, so too do their warnings.
Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Download or read book U S Trade and Investment Policy written by Andrew H. Card and published by Council on Foreign Relations. This book was released on 2011 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From American master Ward Just, returning to his trademark territory of "Forgetfulness "and "The Weather in Berlin," an evocative portrait of diplomacy and desire set against the backdrop of America's first lost war
Download or read book The Great Trade Collapse Causes Consequences and Prospects written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by CEPR. This book was released on 2009 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Policy Externalities And International Trade Agreements written by Nuno Limao and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2018-09-19 with total page 439 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements is a selection of published articles examining how policy externalities motivate and can be addressed by international trading institutions. The studies provide groundbreaking evidence of the role of international market power and policy uncertainty as motives for trade agreements and on the potential clash between preferential trade liberalization (e.g. European Union, NAFTA) and multilateral agreements (WTO). The studies presented in this book not only identify and estimate how different policies interact with each other and across agreements, but also examine how international trading institutions can be used to limit redistribution towards special interest groups and enforce better cooperation across issues, such as labor and the environment, and between developing and developed countries.
Download or read book Investment under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-14 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
Download or read book Measuring Global and Country Specific Uncertainty written by Ezgi O. Ozturk and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-30 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Download or read book Policy Analysis And Modeling Of The Global Economy A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel written by Peter Dixon and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-12-14 with total page 595 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume honors the extraordinary career of Thomas Hertel. It also celebrates the 25th anniversary of the founding of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) by Prof. Hertel. All of those contributing to this volume, including Prof. Hertel's students and colleagues, have benefitted in some ways from the selfless professional generosity and dedication to scientific public goods that have been hallmarks of his career.The book examines the history of the GTAP project, the scientific contributions of Prof. Hertel, and the general application of computational modeling to global economic policy analysis. The applications in the volume, reflecting the broad contributions made by the GTAP community to global policy analysis, range from the impact of globalization on employment to the sustainability impacts of economic integration.
Download or read book Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store Evidence from US Trade Policy written by Alberto Cavallo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy - particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China - on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to total prices paid by importers, suggesting the tariffs' incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, using product-level data from several large multi-national retailers, we demonstrate that the impact of the tariffs on retail prices is more mixed. Some affected product categories have seen sharp price increases, but the difference between affected and unaffected products is generally quite modest, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. These retailers' imports increased after the initial announcement of possible tariffs, but before their full implementation, so the intermediate passthrough of tariffs to their prices may not persist. Finally, in contrast to the case of foreign exporters facing US tariffs, we show that US exporters lowered their prices on goods subjected to foreign retaliatory tariffs compared to exports of non-targeted goods.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows Some New Evidence written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-05-19 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Download or read book Policy Uncertainty in Japan written by Ms.Elif C Arbatli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
