Download or read book The Timeline of Presidential Elections written by Robert S. Erikson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-08-24 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

Download or read book Insecure Majorities written by Frances E. Lee and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2016-08-23 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “[A] tour de force. Building upon her argument in Beyond Ideology, she adds an important wrinkle into the current divide between the parties in Congress.” —Perspectives on Politics As Democrats and Republicans continue to vie for political advantage, Congress remains paralyzed by partisan conflict. That the last two decades have seen some of the least productive Congresses in recent history is usually explained by the growing ideological gulf between the parties, but this explanation misses another fundamental factor influencing the dynamic. In contrast to politics through most of the twentieth century, the contemporary Democratic and Republican parties compete for control of Congress at relative parity, and this has dramatically changed the parties’ incentives and strategies in ways that have driven the contentious partisanship characteristic of contemporary American politics. With Insecure Majorities, Frances E. Lee offers a controversial new perspective on the rise of congressional party conflict, showing how the shift in competitive circumstances has had a profound impact on how Democrats and Republicans interact. Beginning in the 1980s, most elections since have offered the prospect of a change of party control. Lee shows, through an impressive range of interviews and analysis, how competition for control of the government drives members of both parties to participate in actions that promote their own party’s image and undercut that of the opposition, including the perpetual hunt for issues that can score political points by putting the opposing party on the wrong side of public opinion. More often than not, this strategy stands in the way of productive bipartisan cooperation—and it is also unlikely to change as long as control of the government remains within reach for both parties.

Download or read book A Final Promise written by Frederick E. Hoxie and published by U of Nebraska Press. This book was released on 2021-11-08 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Frederick E. Hoxie is director of the D'Arcy McNickle Center for the History of the American Indian at the Newberry Library. He coedited (with Joan Mark) E. Jane Gay's With the Nez Percés: Alice Fletcher in the Field, 1889-92 (Nebraska 1981).

Download or read book Voting written by Bernard R. Berelson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1986-06-15 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Voting is an examination of the factors that make people vote the way they do. Based on the famous Elmira Study, carried out by a team of skilled social scientists during the 1948 presidential campaign, it shows how voting is affected by social class, religious background, family loyalties, on-the-job relationships, local pressure groups, mass communication media, and other factors. Still highly relevant, Voting is one of the most frequently cited books in the field of voting behavior.

Download or read book Campaigning for Hearts and Minds written by Ted Brader and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2020-07-08 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is common knowledge that televised political ads are meant to appeal to voters' emotions, yet little is known about how or if these tactics actually work. Ted Brader's innovative book is the first scientific study to examine the effects that these emotional appeals in political advertising have on voter decision-making. At the heart of this book are ingenious experiments, conducted by Brader during an election, with truly eye-opening results that upset conventional wisdom. They show, for example, that simply changing the music or imagery of ads while retaining the same text provokes completely different responses. He reveals that politically informed citizens are more easily manipulated by emotional appeals than less-involved citizens and that positive "enthusiasm ads" are in fact more polarizing than negative "fear ads." Black-and-white video images are ten times more likely to signal an appeal to fear or anger than one of enthusiasm or pride, and the emotional appeal triumphs over the logical appeal in nearly three-quarters of all political ads. Brader backs up these surprising findings with an unprecedented survey of emotional appeals in contemporary political campaigns. Politicians do set out to campaign for the hearts and minds of voters, and, for better or for worse, it is primarily through hearts that minds are won. Campaigning for Hearts and Minds will be indispensable for anyone wishing to understand how American politics is influenced by advertising today.

Download or read book Campaign Finance and American Democracy written by David M. Primo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2020-10-19 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, and particularly since the US Supreme Court’s controversial Citizens United decision, lawmakers and other elites have told Americans that stricter campaign finance laws are needed to improve faith in the elections process, increase trust in the government, and counter cynicism toward politics. But as David M. Primo and Jeffrey D. Milyo argue, politicians and the public alike should reconsider the conventional wisdom in light of surprising and comprehensive empirical evidence to the contrary. Primo and Milyo probe original survey data to determine Americans’ sentiments on the role of money in politics, what drives these sentiments, and why they matter. What Primo and Milyo find is that while many individuals support the idea of reform, they are also skeptical that reform would successfully limit corruption, which Americans believe stains almost every fiber of the political system. Moreover, support for campaign finance restrictions is deeply divided along party lines, reflecting the polarization of our times. Ultimately, Primo and Milyo contend, American attitudes toward money in politics reflect larger fears about the health of American democracy, fears that will not be allayed by campaign finance reform.

Download or read book Political Debates Between Hon Abraham Lincoln and Hon Stephen A Douglas in the Celebrated Campaign of 1858 in Illinois written by Abraham Lincoln and published by . This book was released on 1860 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The seven debates of Lincoln and Douglas were published in book form by Follett, Foster & Co., of Columbus, Ohio, in the year 1860. This imprint is uniquely inscribed on its fly-leaf: "George Brunk, Esq, From A. Lincoln." The notation is written in pencil.

Download or read book In Defense of Negativity written by John G. Geer and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-07-29 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Americans tend to see negative campaign ads as just that: negative. Pundits, journalists, voters, and scholars frequently complain that such ads undermine elections and even democratic government itself. But John G. Geer here takes the opposite stance, arguing that when political candidates attack each other, raising doubts about each other’s views and qualifications, voters—and the democratic process—benefit. In Defense of Negativity, Geer’s study of negative advertising in presidential campaigns from 1960 to 2004, asserts that the proliferating attack ads are far more likely than positive ads to focus on salient political issues, rather than politicians’ personal characteristics. Accordingly, the ads enrich the democratic process, providing voters with relevant and substantial information before they head to the polls. An important and timely contribution to American political discourse, In Defense of Negativity concludes that if we want campaigns to grapple with relevant issues and address real problems, negative ads just might be the solution.

Download or read book Electing Judges written by James L. Gibson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-09-20 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In Electing Judges, James L. Gibson responds to the growing chorus of critics who fear that the politics of running for office undermine judicial independence. While many people have opinions on the topic, few have supported them with empirical evidence. Gibson rectifies this situation, offering the most systematic study to date of the impact of campaigns on public perceptions of fairness, impartiality, and the legitimacy of elected state courts-and his findings are both counterintuitive and controversial"--Page [four] of cover.

Download or read book The Reasoning Voter written by Samuel L. Popkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2020-05-15 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Reasoning Voter is an insider's look at campaigns, candidates, media, and voters that convincingly argues that voters make informed logical choices. Samuel L. Popkin analyzes three primary campaigns—Carter in 1976; Bush and Reagan in 1980; and Hart, Mondale, and Jackson in 1984—to arrive at a new model of the way voters sort through commercials and sound bites to choose a candidate. Drawing on insights from economics and cognitive psychology, he convincingly demonstrates that, as trivial as campaigns often appear, they provide voters with a surprising amount of information on a candidate's views and skills. For all their shortcomings, campaigns do matter. "Professor Popkin has brought V.O. Key's contention that voters are rational into the media age. This book is a useful rebuttal to the cynical view that politics is a wholly contrived business, in which unscrupulous operatives manipulate the emotions of distrustful but gullible citizens. The reality, he shows, is both more complex and more hopeful than that."—David S. Broder, The Washington Post

Download or read book General Election Laws written by Washington (State) and published by . This book was released on 1905 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book On to Chicago written by James Rogan and published by . This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bedlam erupted among 1,500 ecstatic supporters when Bobby and Ethel Kennedy appeared. Looking tanned and rested, he stepped to the rostrum and pulled from his breast pocket an envelope on which he had jotted some notes. Giving a brief speech intentionally so he could wrap up the evening and get to the party, he congratulated his vanquished primary opponent, Eugene McCarthy, called for Party unity, and expressed hope that his campaign might end the divisions in America. . . . Bobby finished his remarks extemporaneously: "We are a great country, an unselfish country, and a compassionate country. And I intend to make that my basis for running." Pausing until the cheers died down, he added, "So my thanks to all of you, and now it's on to Chicago--and let's win there." The 1968 election was--and remains-- spellbinding. Unlike modern presidential campaigns, where a dozen or more unknowns vie for debate stage sound bites, that year nine titans battled for the presidency. Fifty years later, most people are unaware that in a single race former Vice President Richard Nixon, California Governor Ronald Reagan, President Lyndon Johnson, Senator Robert F. Kennedy, New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller, Senator Eugene McCarthy, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, former Alabama Governor George Wallace, and Michigan Governor George Romney all squared off for the White House. The shocking assassination of Robert Kennedy on the night of his California primary victory left a gaping hole in history. and for five decades left this unanswered question: What if? On to Chicago answers for history--based on facts, not on idealized or romantic notions--what likely would have happened if RFK had lived to go on to Chicago, the city that hosted the tumultuous 1968 Democratic National Convention. On to Chicago is a heavily researched and sourced work that twists the arc of history with facts that will appeal both to fiction lovers as well as pure history aficionados, because so much of it is true. With nearly one thousand endnotes online that confirm how much of this story mirrors reality, many revelations will surprise even the most dedicated history buffs.

Download or read book Who Wants to Run written by Andrew B. Hall and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2019-04-02 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The growing ideological gulf between Democrats and Republicans is one of the biggest issues in American politics today. Our legislatures, composed of members from two sharply disagreeing parties, are struggling to function as the founders intended them to. If we want to reduce the ideological gulf in our legislatures, we must first understand what has caused it to widen so much over the past forty years. Andrew B. Hall argues that we have missed one of the most important reasons for this ideological gulf: the increasing reluctance of moderate citizens to run for office. While political scientists, journalists, and pundits have largely focused on voters, worried that they may be too partisan, too uninformed to vote for moderate candidates, or simply too extreme in their own political views, Hall argues that our political system discourages moderate candidates from seeking office in the first place. Running for office has rarely been harder than it is in America today, and the costs dissuade moderates more than extremists. Candidates have to wage ceaseless campaigns, dialing for dollars for most of their waking hours while enduring relentless news and social media coverage. When moderate candidates are unwilling to run, voters do not even have the opportunity to send them to office. To understand what is wrong with our legislatures, then, we need to ask ourselves the question: who wants to run? If we want more moderate legislators, we need to make them a better job offer.

Download or read book Illinois Election Laws written by and published by . This book was released on 1916 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Compassion Conviction written by Justin Giboney and published by InterVarsity Press. This book was released on 2020-07-21 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Have you ever felt too progressive for conservatives, but too conservative for progressives? It's easy for faithful Christians to grow disillusioned with civic engagement or fall into tribal extremes. Representing the AND Campaign, the authors of this book lay out the biblical case for political engagement and help Christians navigate the complex world of politics with integrity.

Download or read book The Registration and Election Laws written by San Francisco Board of Election Commissioners and published by . This book was released on 1898 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Golden Rule written by Thomas Ferguson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-08-15 with total page 439 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "To discover who rules, follow the gold." This is the argument of Golden Rule, a provocative, pungent history of modern American politics. Although the role big money plays in defining political outcomes has long been obvious to ordinary Americans, most pundits and scholars have virtually dismissed this assumption. Even in light of skyrocketing campaign costs, the belief that major financial interests primarily determine who parties nominate and where they stand on the issues—that, in effect, Democrats and Republicans are merely the left and right wings of the "Property Party"—has been ignored by most political scientists. Offering evidence ranging from the nineteenth century to the 1994 mid-term elections, Golden Rule shows that voters are "right on the money." Thomas Ferguson breaks completely with traditional voter centered accounts of party politics. In its place he outlines an "investment approach," in which powerful investors, not unorganized voters, dominate campaigns and elections. Because businesses "invest" in political parties and their candidates, changes in industrial structures—between large firms and sectors—can alter the agenda of party politics and the shape of public policy. Golden Rule presents revised versions of widely read essays in which Ferguson advanced and tested his theory, including his seminal study of the role played by capital intensive multinationals and international financiers in the New Deal. The chapter "Studies in Money Driven Politics" brings this aspect of American politics into better focus, along with other studies of Federal Reserve policy making and campaign finance in the 1936 election. Ferguson analyzes how a changing world economy and other social developments broke up the New Deal system in our own time, through careful studies of the 1988 and 1992 elections. The essay on 1992 contains an extended analysis of the emergence of the Clinton coalition and Ross Perot's dramatic independent insurgency. A postscript on the 1994 elections demonstrates the controlling impact of money on several key campaigns. This controversial work by a theorist of money and politics in the U.S. relates to issues in campaign finance reform, PACs, policymaking, public financing, and how today's elections work.